Good morning. Naughty spike up first thing yesterday before the dip , which exceeded the 6706 pivot but didn’t quite reach the 6721 shorting area, however during the course of the day we got the decline to 6645 at around 7pm. The gold trade worked out better yesterday with the short off 1352 closing at 1340, good job too as its climbed strongly since as a flight to safety takes place. The FTSE still looks weak for the moment and is most likely going to test the bottom of the Bianca 10 day at 6623. Maybe even 6550 soon (bottom of the Raffs)!
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the regional index headed for a three-week low, oil dropped and emerging-market and commodity-linked currencies weakened amid concern thatChina’s economy may be faltering. Gold advanced and copper traded near its lowest since July 2010.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index tumbled 1.5 percent by 3:31 p.m. in Tokyo, set for the lowest close since Feb. 20 as a gauge of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong slid 1.9 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. The yen traded at 102.87 a dollar after gaining versus major peers yesterday and gold rallied 0.9 percent. The Australian dollar fell with currencies from South Korea to Malaysia. Oil in New York slid 0.6 percent amid signs of rising U.S. inventories, while copper futures were little changed at $6,469.75 a ton.
Most major equity indexes in Asia declined as the suspension of a Shanghai-listed company’s bonds from trading underscored risks in China’s financial markets less than a week after the country’s first onshore default. At the same time, disappointing data on the world’s second-largest economy has fueled a rout in base metals this week as lawmakers discuss policy in Beijing. Russian stocks fell after Germany told the country to switch course on Crimea or risk more sanctions.
“The concern is that Chinese growth is still slowing,” said Shane Oliver, the Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney, which oversees $131 billion. “The risk is this little correction could linger a little bit longer. The markets remain vulnerable to bad news regarding China and the Ukraine.”
Gold
Gold, regarded as a safe-haven investment along with the yen, traded at $1,360.72 an ounce after climbing 0.7 percent yesterday. Platinum rose 0.5 percent and silver jumped 1.6 percent.
“Investors rushed the classic safe-haven option as concerns swirled about the stability of China’s financial system,” Tony Farnham an analyst in Perth at Patersons Securities Ltd., wrote in an e-mail to clients. The Ukraine crisis “continues to bubble away just below the surface, just like any good volcano.”
Crude
West Texas Intermediate crude fell as much as 0.9 percent to $99.18, dropping for a third day, after an industry report showed crude inventories rose in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. An Energy Information Administration report today may show stockpiles expanded by 2 million, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
Ukraine
Russia is standing by deposed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and called possible U.S. aid to the new government in Kiev illegal, as the standoff with Western governments over Crimea intensified. Ukraine says its neighbour has put as many as 19,000 troops in the region.
FTSE Outlook
Frankly, the FTSE looks weak for the moment, with a downtrending channel on the 30 minute and a break through the 6645 support mentioned yesterday. With gold rising strongly and breaking that 1352 there is a definite flight to safety going on, as well as hardly any divi hunters coming out last night, despite a large 20 point divi.
For today it looks very likely that we will test the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6623, whilst both the Raff channel bottoms are at 6562ish – so if that 6623 were to break then that is likely to be the next major support level, certainly around that area anyway. With todays pivot at 6688, the bulls will need to break that level to have any hope of upside for the near term. However, it looks like the S&P has further to fall – 1852ish – which will mean a bit more weakness for the FTSE. Whether that means a bounce at 6623 or 6570 remains to be seen, but for longs with tight stops those are the areas I am looking at.
anyone braving the long from the 6620 area?
it was tested overnight, so do not want to try a 2nd time. 1st time is always a good trade
test
I didn’t try that trick with divi yesterday (to buy at 4.20 and sell at 4.35). After all I don’t want to gamble. But even if I’ve done so I would be possibly be better off just 6-7 points in the best case scenario. Yesterday it wasn’t worth it.
Took a bit of a risky long @6628
Same, looking at the 6680 area for TP
Closed at 6637 will look for another entry though if it keeps looking bullish
Dax looks like it wants 9160 to hit trend line… FTSE looking more solid so may get another bite of a long at 6620 and DAX 9160 imho
Anyone looking to go long here or does 6645 cap the upside? With gold through 1350 is there a chance of a decent pullback to 6570? Looks very similar to the down move in Jan/Feb
GG
Do Not Buy This Market Till 6540-45 – Then Buy at Every Dip
Trust me – I am an Italian
I trust you
LONG ONLY AT 6570
Whats 30 points between friends !!
i will not be risking any longs today.
Small short @ 6630, stop at 6550, see if 6620 breaks
Positives Divergences on the Euro vs Dax new lows… Looks like a final flush before some upside. Think FTSE may just hold that 6620 region. Watching closely.
have you heard of failed divergences?
I have placed a small bet £ 1 to go up from 6625 – what do think please. Should i not be buying ? Lots of confusion here – so should I close it ?
dax looks like its ready to drop heavily to me.
Why do you say that while andy is saying it wont ?
look at the charts, 9200 is the key support level, if it breaks this the charts show a reversal – thus down, and could mean a plummet
Just looking at the 30 min and the 6619 has been tested 3 times now once at 7am once at 9 am and now at 10am, cheeky long maybe?
Just to clarify Im still on the sideline.
risk/reward, it would most likely be single points profit if any as the reward. the risk is it goes much further down.
3rd time and broke. I only go for 1st test
why ?
Sensible. I had a risky long earlier took 8 points and ran! Don’t want to trade like that so I’m going to wait to see some real movement as Peter says it just seems to be a strange trickle currently.
One thing puzzling here – All books & commentators say that when a market falls – it does it very rapidly – but this is like a trickle – just something to chew on – while we wait !!
Don’t get me wrong, the arse could fall off it and FTSE could head to 6570… But i am observing new lows in DAX & FTSE whilst the forex markets aren’t following as they should. Positive divergence in this case often means reversal. But as always, nothing is 100%, hence risk management is key…
Ps someone tell Toni to stop trading, he is going to lose a fortune
Meaning – lose a fortune ? Explain yourself?
Stop asking people what you should do… You clearly don’t know what you are doing. You are just guessing and treating the market like a casino. If you do that you will lose big. The fact you lost £65 yesterday at £1 per point is shocking! Its ok asking people what they are doing but it is vital you have your own plan and trading strategy, otherwise it will fail… Interpreting market data & technicals is subjective, there is no right or wrong, the good traders succeed through disciplined risk management. Trade when you have an edge and make sure you can justify your own trades, not because someone says so.
Penso che avete di un caso di scambio di persona
Not me my friend
Can’t agree more…
One thing though is that most guys saying they are on the sidelines???
We are halfway, or more than halfway through a correction and everyone is still waiting for proper direction. I can only say…Look at the data in front of you, it speaks volumes.
Why is everybody pointing fingures at me. I am saying anything offensive. My only comment is that there is support at 6540 – 45. & meaning dont buy market now but wait till suppoort.
che cosa è con voi ragazzi
I like Italian language.
The market is a casino. Just with a bit more ego and jargon!
is this the fed effect or ukraine ?
sp500 holding support at 1860 ftse going to head up now
long 6617
had a sell order triggered at 6615 i had placed much earlier, expected it to be hit much earlier too, will keep a close eye on it..
maybe a bounce of 6600
I’m short above 6630 but agree this down move is losing steam. I agree there is a positive divergence creeping in and st, ie probably only today/ tomorrow we will see the ftse pulled back up by the states. It still looks very similar to what happened during the sell off a month ago and would like any thoughts for a level on a possible mt decent sized short
GG
dow 16180 could be a good place to start building longs again
Im not seeing any clear trades I want to execute today, very different to yesterday where there were clear trends and gained 30-40 points. Placed 2 trades today and all I have done is broke even. I guess sometimes you have those sideline days and this is one of them…Will wait to see what happens after lunch.
Still heavily short, targets readjusted to 6562. Will then not place any trades until after the Fed meeting, but generally thinking of buying from these levels, target 7000.
from where you enter short ?
6850, 6800 and 6750 🙂
who made 5000 pounds in last days ?
Lol, don’t discuss money.
Try and talk points. I am looking at 200+ points on one trade only 🙂
How much anyone trade should not matter, success is the most important part. Some can afford to trade more…
Havies, I know you are looking for a down move and I agree with you on the awful data front but I keep waiting for a move up to short, have you any topside res level befor we move down to test the Jan lows?
What time is the fed meeting ?
fed meeting isnt until the 18 and 19th march
Ah yes ofcourse, you did mention it yesterday apologies.
avrebbe ascoltato mama
sei mia madre? Google Traduttore grande cosa.
quando hai iniziato la negoziazione in borsa?
LoL
who short 6630 ?
Gone for it. Tested it a good few times on the 3 min and 5 min so thought it was worth a trade.
if i see 6645-6650 go short with 6660stop
will gap get closed
Was short at 6630 but covered at 6615. Looking to go short but the usual buy the dip crew are in and will sit this out till the US comes in. Inevitable feeling that this has a big downside coming, too many people talking it up to 6950 in the ST. BTD doesn’t always work especially when we’re close to all time highs. Feel free to comment!
GG
are you a girl ?
Who me, sorry no
GG
Good morning everybody – looking for another good day today. bought 6626 – Looks like a buy on the dip day again
where is stop ?
Morning Blondie – My stop is 6550 – but will assess it as it goes
Got an order also at 6595 – but I doubt it will get triggered
There comes a day when BTD feels wrong and the fact that the states haven’t followed the other markets down in the last 5/6 sessions I reckon it’s soon. I could be wrong but I feel 9160 won’t hold in the Dax and feel 6570 will be tested, then it’s time to reevaluate
GG
Quite possible . Have you tried looking at it in the other way?
Weren’t you going long blondie? Criticising me for going short, biggest bser going. DOW going to come off, keeping feeding the shorts buddy
Sure, I bought 6690 yesterday with the divi coming and the s&p looking like it would push towards 1900 and the rally came as a reason for people to go short and feel the news flows at the moment are justifying the shorts and the BTD explanations are drying up. Not saying I’m right just trying to read the moves
GG
Havies killing it buddy =], follow the trend, just a matter of time before DOW and S&P will follow hopefully…
yea looks like a proportional to ftse drop coming on US
That’s the idea.
Don’t think we will see to much of a drop on Dow and s&p, but certainly one needed. The question is, what happens to FTSE when they decide to drop 1%+
I had a 6250 in mind, but it doesn’t seem to be on the horizon, however if Dow and S&P drop we might still see it.
Only then in my side at the moment is the Fed meeting 😉
very sure 6250 is out of question…the lowest i see ftse going is 6400..most likely a bounce from 6500ish will be seen…6250 is a mini crisis lool no reason to see that right now.
currently short from 6623 (bearish avalanche setup on 15mins) stop 6643 target new lows at 6600
Hope so, anyone else short?
GG
she going over…..
i am short as well for a while now…but 1 thing i can see is that the bounce will be very stealthy wen we do get it…
todays bounce or the big one
im talking about the BIG bounce for reversal..that will be very hard to spot/catch
i think we will see 6550 from overnight to before tomorrow US open and then a bounce to 6600ish level
The lowest i see ftse going is no further below than 64000ish
FTSE IS A BUY!
not in my view or others…u can stay on sideline or sell…not buy!
very true
Placed another Buy at 6600 – as well as 6595 – hope they get hit.
What an orderly move down. Buyers at every step of the way.
they will hit outside market hours (im sure of that – but thats not a good entry believe me, ftse will drop below 6600 enough to hit ur stop)
especially with china expected bad numbers overnight
Will note your points. However This is an orderely move down.
So buyers are picking up great longs – so beg to differ with your views
and everybodys bearish notes. Avalanche – it is not.
well i think the buyers who are going in right now are medium-long term traders…i know most systematic hedge funds are currently selling.
will add more to short if we see 6630 today
dow does have support at 16275 though. will be interesting – id imagine another triple bypass session on the cards for cumberland watching the markets. brave man.
Have too agree with Cumberland this is no great sell off they happen quicker than this, may take a nibble on Dax & Ftse this afternoon but in no rush as yet enjoying the sun
Tried to google avalanche. No reasonable results. What the heck is that?
i dont think its a technical term in trading – but iid gather it to mean a huge engullfing slide down that kills all in its way. certainly if youre climbing a mountain and see one, you dont continue climbing
That’s what I kind of thought. We see sliding higher lows, I think that’s what al means. Is that true, al?
enjoyed that ride down to 6597
i had an additional sale booked at 6595 – we shall see.
you run like buggery
Up and down, not sure what it’s trying to do.
Cumberland the reason why it’s such a slow downward slide could be due to the high number of shorters on ig it’s 61%. Either way it’s a sell the highs rather than buy the dips at the moment, unless you have decent stops
Look at it this way – One of us will be correct.
My 6600 buy got triggered – But missed out on my 6595
& ofcourse my 6626 from earlier
up down up down up down, choppy waters to say the least. I haven’t got the experience to be properly trading these movements, sidelines I think.
the first 30 mins of the dow opening is just lunacy
Wait a minute, Dow opens at 14.30 as far as I am concerned. Is it Dax opens at 13.30?
Jack Two
Imparare a leggere l’ora testa di cazzo
Right, if you chose to swear I will not reply.
daylight savings in the usa for 3 weeks so usa is 1330
You should have allowed him another 8 minutes to wrack his grey matter……………
Looks like 6620-3 has become resistance now?
yes, drats, think I may have missed my exit, lets see what price action shows…
bearish Avalanche short is a term used by a few training coaches for a short term set of bearish lower lows, and lower highs that accelerate their lows. We’re talking intra-day here.
Unbelievable to read that some traders cant even keep up with summer time changes and not aware that Wall St opens at 13.30 our time till we move forward at the end of the month.
I despair at times.
Jack Two – is the first one to raise his hands ……” Me Sir…..”
NR169 that the different between traders and gamblers lol
moved my stop to 6632, I suspect if it goes through there then we’re off to 6660. I have a buy order at 6633.
Either that or i’ll get whipsawed out of both… !
That’s cool
there you go short out for -9pt loss, now in long at 6633 target 6660 stop 6605
thats a tricky one, could be stuck in limbo for a while
YOU SEE FTSE IS ON THE WAY UP! BUY BUY
Closed my Longs – Up £ 1000 – well £ 976
Long @6639. Cumber land called it!
Closed @6649
Nice 1 cumberland
Like you said Cumberland, someone would be right. Hats off to you, good effort. You made £976, I made £230 buying 1/2 back at 6607 and scratched the rest @ 6630. Only one winner-cheers
Thanks Guys – But dont go crazy buying at these levels
so is good to short ???? you fucking shorters. What now ?
loool its funny to see how people supporting cumberlands idea (not taking any credit from u)
buying right now is not a strategy but just hoping to catch the bottom.
Cumberland, may i ask why u closed ur position if u think ftse is going up up up ?
Not sure what you mean? I did not say up up up – I said buy the dips. I explained that this was not a sell-off – avalanche or whatever. So I think you misunderstood it
I closed – because it has run its course – simple as that
i think he means your entry points seem illogical
Ok – not at all – 6590 was support. I placed my order there. When it began to hesitate – then I felt either get it at the next support – 6000 or miss it. Then it seemed 6590 would not break – so simple as that
yes jules thanks for that…thats what i meant :)…
Cumberland, im just trying to think like, if you said market gonna go up (even for a bit)…then that up lasted a couple minutes to an hour, forecasting such short period moves, with no economic data or any planned releases is noise to me and not a trading opportunity. Maybe i am missing something, Lets say ftse drops back to 6620ish at close..would you say your trade was still a good trade (even if u closed at profit)?
Or would you say you traded noise and against the trend ?
Next support 6000????? What? 530 points below and you are going to wait for that for your long??????
Indeed a very good point.
It is all dependent on an individual trader.
There is a trader here – who said – he has built up positions – short over days. Thats one way to trade.
Then there are day traders – where I fall into I think.
Noise – yes to some extent. But Noise can be 50 points – which I trade.
Some people here – just scalp – 7 to 10 points.
I personally find that difficult. that to me is Noise.
Economic data – and factoring that into trading – requires – a very large pile of cash – 000.000 ‘s
and the trade will last a couple of months.
I think – the people here are a mishmash of traders type – so that is the noise you hear.
Better to trade ones own personaility
6000 should read 6600
U cannot trade noise…
Nick please ban Blonde IP address don’t think this is the type of forum for a foul mouth fool
Just gathering some thoughts here, anyone thinking of a buy with the 6680 zone as a pivot.
i think it will struggle with 6660
Closed, wiped yesterday’s profits but still up on the week.
Not great day for me today, +3 points as a blessing for escaping the big loss. I was short and it did rally. Closed luckily with b/e and currently not sure where the price is going. Once today I was winning +20 points which I didn’t take then I was running loss of max 28 points (triple my stake) so it wasn’t good. But it did reverse. Took this short on the basis it should drop further after the rally. But it did carried on so I had to get out.
Now think that possibly nice short is wasted.
It was 16337 av short
im still bearish..added at 6630 first time it hit on bounce up…not adding anymore waiting for 6600 break (looking to see 6550 by tomorrow or end of week)
Close above 6680 on a 30 minute chart ill close my short.
At least I was right on the direction. Did not expect the spike to be so high, entered too early.
Order 6626 – bought asgain
why buy a break of S1 on close?
If I could buy at 6600 – again i would – But – will it get there – unlikely – so best price I could get i suppose
hashmash, I think he is adding up. But I agree, to buy on the break of S1 is too hasty.
Well dont forget the interest costs if u are trading cfd or spreadbetting becus if breakout takes several days u will be wasting a lot of money (and most likely a better entry position) also gotta stomach those drawdowns.
Agree with you on personality issue. I was advised all sorts – to hold positions monthly, look only on 1 hour and higher charts (4 hour etc) but I realized at the end, I can’t. I find holding position for a long time is a torture. So I decided to move from FTSE to Dow and trade when the prices are moving to get decent scalps. It seems works better as for the last month I scooped 266 points of my usual stake, wait a minute, before I was ALWAYS losing on FTSE and never had a breakthrough. So hopefully soon I will recover the losses from the beginning of the year on FTSE (if you remember my short 6700ish area when it shoot up to 6860, I lost more that a grand on it.)
So my point is trade as it suits you and don’t be judged.
Yes – I used to trade the dow – but that was when I did not understand the market at all.
ftse actually is the smoothest market around. Very pleasant 1 – 2 day trading. I am expecting the ftse to trade up to just short of 6700 – hence my trade at 6626.
It would probably make more sense here – if when people comment – to give their time horizon – sure it would help others to understand & follow peoples thoughts.
ah ok, if u are targetting 6700…then i cannot disagree with u :), that is a possibility even in the short view i hold.
But im not leaning towards it hehe.
And yea i agree with ftse being a nice market to trade, compared to dow and dax (S&P is ok aswell).
If it doesn’t break 6600 today then I tomorrow I will short the spike. It could stay sideways till the end of the day. Well, hope so.
lets see tomorrow, looking for a dip before US open, and then a bit of recovery like today.
US traders – place more than 50% of their trades just before close ! – so got to factor that in – I suppose
Advice:
If the S&P500 finishes below 1863.50 it will put the market in a week position!
It is therefor a good hedge that the market will start to climb into the close..
why 1863.5 ?
You should be asking Nick !!
The down trending angel finishes at 1863.5 and the retracement area for that is below 1859, Nick already mentioned he believed the market could see low 50’s, what this means is that buyers should come in at any retracement area’s, failure to close above 1863.5 puts the market in another week position
Had a share stopped out today, but the stop locked in > +25% so that was OK. (GWP – worth a look, will rebuy.) FTSE/1 hr. gives a fair picture of what we’ve got; a strong downward trend since 7 March, and a little spur today – sharply up against the trend and now down with the trend. Perhaps we’ll nudge 6600 before re-evaluating. 🙂
I totally agree with Luke – we can do without foul-mouthed contributors.
I’m with Cumberland. Bullish moves in currencies, Asia should bounce overnight and big POMO tomorrow. Long 6620 and SPX 1863
I thought the idea was to share ideas on here not bicker. I agree with Cumberland on the different types of traders and the duration they hold positions for. I was the opposite way to Cumberland today, ie short but I could still see why he was long. About waiting for economic indicators …….not a great idea, we’ve had poor results from Europe, China, US and mixed results in the UK but the US is just off all time highs and ftse is only 250 points from all time highs. I know it’s QE but hopefully you get my point
GG
They all should be focusing on day trades only!!!
The first thing they should be trying to learn from there own charts is how Nick arrives at his support and resistant levels..
can you advise how to do this finding levels
I hate it when people talk money.
Don’t support the longs and let me show numbers.
Still heavily short as below. Equity at £165k
http://tinypic.com/r/s2uwc2/8
Will remain short as I think we are maybe 3/4 the way of a correction…
Gl
well said Havies, I hate it when people talk money too, i’m currently £40 down today, yes that’s £40, NOT £40k, NOT £400k, but just £40! or should I say 20pts Intra-day.
Where as Havies is £58k in profit, wow, good going Havies! or about 500pts Swing trade.
Money means different things to different people, whereas pts for timeframe is fixed…
Havies, you didn’t reply to my questions last time. Do you use a demo or live account? How long did it take you to build up to that level and how much did you start with?
Also I believe your positions will close automatically tomorrow as the expiry date for Plus500’s FTSE futures is 13/03/14 at 8pm. Hope this helps if you weren’t aware of it. Not sure if you can roll the contracts over.
My apologies,
Real money on this one. Deposited £20k in January after a lengthy test of plus 500.
Only opened 12 trades this year including the ones currently open. Must say I had great success this year and it must be said sometimes with the help of this forum.
Strict discipline and confidence in your trade is key.
Am aware of the expiry, hence said earlier that I adjusted my targets and will not trade until after the Fed meeting. All because of the expiry.
I contacted Plus500 and asked them to consider a rollover and they are looking into it….
Hope this answers all the q’s
Thank you for your reply. 700% increase in 3 months is mind blowing really. I don’t know how experienced you are but when I first started I made massive gains which I blew out in a day or two as I was taking too much risk. My advice is take your money and run. Leave a bit in your account and start all over again but definitely take profits out!
£10 profit today. LOL
Nice one Cumberland you seem to be doing well. However i am still firm on my thoughts that the DOW will come off so I intend on selling highs. The thing about reading these posts on this forum is it can cause too much doubt and in the past I have suffered from fickle trading. Out of all positions atm intend to be a day trader rather than a long term movement it limits risks and losses.
This week has been a good week for us day traders wilth volatility no doubt. Gl all.
Havies I am with you mate. Normally the end if a down trend is signalled by a strong bullish response, shown on FEB and in early December with the replacement if Bernanke which triggered a one way upside. Looking to short tomorrow morning if we get a retest of 6640. Can’t see much movement tonight so just watch the footie 🙂
its interesting as to account values – discipline is the key and how you apply your discipline – i only ever keep 2k in my trading account therefore it obviously restricts me to trading only 2-4 quid a point – if i didnt withdraw i know id get greedy which would lead to downfalls in other areas such as chasing losses etc, mindset is key and you have to develop a method to keep it in check.
Jules each to ones own. Personally this is a part time hobby alongside university, whilst for others it is their job… Personally trade within 10k, maximum point would be £100/pp, in excess it is too stressful and I have suffered, greed can be very problematic.
Havies admittedly your screenshot should shut up some traders like blondie who bs their profits, but prefer if people didn’t post their profits.,.
£100 pp for £10000 is too big really, it leaves you with 100 points really. Unless you are adding to a winner?
I have 1k in my account and trade 2pound a point lol…….
would be interesting to know how many people regularly trade the dow. i rarely do unless some really significant is happening.
if ftse crosses overat 12 0 clock tonight at 6628 tomorows low should be about 6580 high 6650
maybe a test of 6560/60 then down. china poo