6705, 6721 resistance, dip to 6645 then bounce?

Good morning. Well yesterday turned out rather well and the pre market open long at 6684 turned into a real corker, with the rest eventually being closed with the trailing stop at 6750. We then dropped to almost the second support level at 6668 before another bounce, nearly getting 6710. If that 6670 area holds as support then, coupled with a large divi today of 21.7 points, should bring some buyers out (most definitely just before the close at least). The geopolitical situation is still in a bit of turmoil with UK and Germany threatening Russia with sanctions over Ukraine. Don’t think Putin will be too worried though!

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding after yesterday dropping the most in two weeks. Japanese shares swung between gains and losses as the central bank kept monetary policy unchanged.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.3 percent to 137.96 as of 2:20 p.m. in Tokyo, paring gains of as much as 0.5 percent. The gauge fell from a six-week high yesterday. About five shares rose for every four that fell today.

“The BOJ will have to do more to support the economy,” said Tim Schroeders, a money manager who helps oversee about $1 billion in equities at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “Any sustainable improvement in the Japanese economy needs to be tackled with a combination of monetary easing and structural reforms.”

Japan’s Topix index added 0.3 percent, having swung between gains of 0.7 percent and losses of 0.1 percent. The BOJ kept its pledge to expand the monetary base at a pace of 60 trillion yen ($581 billion) to 70 trillion yen per year, the central bank said in a statement, in line with all but one of 34 economists surveyed byBloomberg News.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index was little changed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 0.2 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index gained 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index (AS51) was little changed, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 0.3 percent.

China Credit
A report yesterday showed aggregate financing in China dropped to 938.7 billion yuan ($153 billion) last month amid a crackdown on shadow lending, down from January’s record 2.58 trillion yuan and less than the 1.31 trillion yuan median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Chinese exports slid the most since 2009 last month, according to government data released over the weekend.

“There’s concern China’s 7.5 percent growth target is going to be challenging when you see credit growth and exports declining,” Toby Lawson, head of futures, options and cash equities trading for Asia Pacific at Newedge Group SA in Sydney, said by phone.

S&P Futures
Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent today. The U.S. benchmark index lost 0.1 percent yesterday, retreating from a record high.

Ukraine began military drills as Russian forces tightened their hold on the Crimean peninsula and the Foreign Ministry in Moscow warned of “lawlessness” in the former Soviet republic’s eastern provinces.

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

FTSE Outlook
I am thinking a dip and rise again today, and with support at 6670 again. If that breaks then 6643 is the next level for the bears to defend. Today’s pivot is 6706 so with this slightly lacklustre bounce since 6670 so far I think a dip from that area before climbing later on. As mentioned above there is a large 21.7 divi today so there will most likely be some buying just before the bell. There is a very clear 30 minute channel in play today as you can see below, which also flags that resistance at 6720ish, so a short from there could work out quite well.

177 Comments

  4. Nick can you send me info about subscribing to you please. What time do you send your morning updates to subscribers?

      1. Does it include a forum or something like that. if so – how much discussion is there. Is there updates ? to Resistance & support
        & charts

        1. there is a live trading room, you see the charts on Nick’s PC , he is generally there to answer any questions. There is general chat about the FTSe / dow / dax mainly

          Resistance and support is given in the morning along with his trade plan for the day.

          1. What is your opinion ? Have you found it useful ?
            Are you able to take advantage of it ?
            & crucially have you made money out of it ?

          2. very useful, I only subscribed last Friday, I have followed him on 3 trade and have made on all of them, obviously he is not going to have 100% record, but I am very impressed thus far

            Do I think its worth the money, absolutely, £30 is nothing and you are not tied in, if you want to stop you simply unsubscribe!!

    1. Shez not very bullish at the moment as shooting star on ftse last night so only looking for 6690 then a drop after lunch to 45 then rise at end of afternoon for divi

      2. Just seems to be the way things are headed at the moment; FTSE generally on a downslope while Dow and S&P 500 still looking firm. Unusual divergence perhaps – and might not last.

      1. Sorry for my ignorance guys …I’m assuming divi is short for dividend, however, what exactly is it in relation too and how can I track what it is ? Thanks

        1. various companies go ex-dividend tomorrow so after tomorrow investors wont get their dividend – so combined it could take up to 21.7 points off the ftse

          2. so dont have a short open by end of play as you will be charged by your broker/spreadbet account

          3. Ah ok makes sense, thanks Jules appreciate it. Will have to bear with me as I’m on a steep learning curve still 🙂 (puntastic)

  10. Wow 21.7 today? Are you sure that is right? That is huge… If it is the case the FTSE will rocket this afternoon… Esp as US Markets look primed for higher. Buy any Dip today

  15. Shez go long mate market will rise undoubtedly due to that dividend. Personally buying into this long and selling tonight for tomorrow, as we are still in a downtrend. Probably see 6730 area today

    1. Cheers Ahwab I’m long from 6669 still, just deciding whether to hold over lunch (think I will now), just bought my stop into profit so what ever happens I make profit.

  16. im currently long, my exit is to be 6722. unsure as to the US markets but the dow looks in good stead to go above 16450, then need to see if it can get above 16484.

  17. does anybody know – why & how ftse is negative & US dow positive . been like this for a week or so?

    1. they are different markets, FTSE100 is UK London exchange, Dow30 is New York stock exchange.
      🙂

        1. good thanks! less busy at work so got more time to do some intra-day strategy stuff again… So far so good this week, 6 trades, and 6 wins 0 losers! 🙂
          I’m hoping my confidence continues…

  18. i’m currently long 6683 (cup and handle breakout on 15mins setup), stop 6671, target 6700.

    1. Im also looking for 6700 but i wont be selling before 4:30pm as FTSE will be very bullish this afternoon with such a large dividend.

  20. why is the us so active – before open. is this political news – pre-market fluctuations ?

  21. Charts froze, problems with how the platform working today. Wall Street goes in and out of actually availability. Phoned my platform they deal with problem, managed to close just on pure watch of prices just before it froze again. You have to log in and out to activate your index. Yesterday it was problems with freezing charts again. It never happened on Spredex as long as I use them. mmm closed +22 point, pity if I could see what the price was doing. Had to close 16410.5 and I see on prices it went higher. Just annoyed but charts still not working.

  22. That was a long wait – finally I am not in the red – looking to take profits – at £ 4000+ hopefully

  23. At what level did you go long Jack Two? I closed mine at 16418 wasn’t sure as to which way this was going. On the sidelines right now as I can’t see which way the FTSE is going.

      1. I agree with you on sidelines, that was the reason I wouldn’t hold this long, but I would be nice if I held a bit longer as I planned but tiny technical difficulty. Look how nicely it is at 16450 now. Oh.

  25. traded thru the rsi lines today worked like a treat long at rsi 25 short at 75 rsi on the rsi 14 chart

    1. al, I haven’t seen you for while. I always like your remarks on position and other stuff.

      1. hi Jack, been too busy recently with proper job!
        Nice to get back to challenging myself in the market.

        1. Keep up well, hope to see you more often here.
          I’ve looked at your last long entry and couldn’t figure out what cup and handle was. You must be trading by patterns? I like trending strategies. It would be interesting to know more of your methods in the future. GL

    1. how has a breakout been confirmed?>/? – its hit resistance at 16450 and pulled back, 16485 needs to be tested firstly, and only if it hits 16502 will it be classed as a breakout.

    1. LIKE YOUR TRADES. YOU SEEM TO IN RIGHT SIDE. MANY HERE LIKE TO SHORT HEAVILY AND GOT BURNED AS HELL

  34. Marco – The scary part was yesterday – soon after entry. Then got numb when i was losing 4K + but after losses down to 1.5K – i was relaxed. Today i knew i would be atleast break-even.
    Thanks

      1. Why does it have to be 4pm? Why not to buy at 4.20 and close at 4.35, surely during 10 min the price will not move more than 20 points and in any way you would be in profit????

        1. True, and alot of people do that. However i have also found that on decent divi days you get a strong afternoon until close, so you tend to make even more if you buy earlier. I’ve just bought my first tranche at 6690.

    2. Is that right? I thought you had to sell at 4.29 and 59 secs as certainly for IG they hit your account for the divi adjustment as to your holding at 4:30 – or are you doing something different in that you think the FTSE doesn’t properly reflect the dividend. I am holding a small long for this purpose which I shall close out just before the close

      2. You don’t want to close just before, you want to close just after 4:30pm… You will get 21.7pts straight into your account after 4:30pm, then usually it retraces back up at least half way… Plus if you buy at 4pm you get a strong push into close as people load up for tomorrow. Easy money most of the time. You only get stung if you are short.

        2. OK i see what you are trying to do. btw is there a published list of the exdvi impact on the FTSE each tuesday night ?

  36. just remember guys and girls, only take those high-prob setups that “you” know and understand.
    No guessing, as guessing is “coin” tossing which means 50:50 chance of winning, and in fact you lose because your psychological behaviour is to close winners too early and losers too late thus losers bigger than winners, net loss at 50:50 !!

    1. So will try out a little experiment… have gone long with 2x2points at 6992. Will close one going into the close and another a few minutes after and see what the result is.

      1. Haha good experiment. Im just sticking with my Long at 6690… See what happens. Maybe the rise from 6660 – 6719 was the divi effect… Usually its 4pm onward though.

          1. Well not a very clever experiement so it seems. Noone seems to want the dividend -infact quite the opposite!

  41. Went long at 6690 with a 12point stop loss but got taken out. Thought this was primed to go up not down 🙁

  43. Looks that way. Still new to this so learning, was tempted to short at 6720 but was put off by people confidence of the US breaking 16550. Out now till tomorrow, good luck all.

  44. Divi trade – I have found to buy a market – if it sold off into 4.30 and exactly opposite if it went up to 4.30

    I bought at 6664

  46. Remember most American trading company don’t pay the divi payment out till American close ie fxcm

  47. Hello everybody – how has the day been – has anybody made money in this market. I have had a rollercoaster ride today – and I am thankful for coming out with a small loss of 120 £ . How have you all faired

    1. I made a few trades. Only trading 1 £ per point. but still mananged to lose £65 . but still learning. only my 2nd week. but learning a lot from people here. very constructine but a lot going over my head

    1. Dow – is the strongest market amoung all index. So how do you arrive at a profound statement like that. I would like to hear your views

      1. 1. All time Highs
        2. Oscillators – in all major timeframes – above 60 mins are hugging the 100 area
        3. price above 100 moving avg
        4. no Divergence – whatsoever
        5. No trendline are broken down
        6. All US index – behaving similarly
        7. No single index showing any bearishness
        8. Sentiment all ++

        & more where that comes

    1. market does not move in a strainght line. so it should explain why it looks like that. US is in Full Blown Bull Market.
      Ftse has lost the plot and – Positively in Bearish Sentiment – Why ? have not got a clue?

    2. To turn US into a Bear market – will really need some serious move down. & that is not going to happen – in the next month or so

  54. I really would like to hear an argument – From anybody – for a Bearish Scenario – I totally am in agreement with Blondie

    1. depends on your trading method. looking at posts it appears a lot of people here arent day traders, it may well be bullish long term if youve been holding a trade for weeks or months, but daily its a different ball game, swings bear and bull equally at the moment.. incidentally, i found the trade cumberland did to be insane and without logic and lucky he has the funds in his account to avoid it being closed out. running 4k losses, to me that signals you are trading on the toss of a coin.

  55. Was reading Cumberlands posts – Agree with his sentiment – But man – you too heavy – I dont know how you slept yesterday. You got iron balls – But great trade.!!

  56. 4 hour chart narrow Bollinger bands. Big movement coming. Usually in the opposite side of first move. 1st move begun in the downside

  57. Blonde you PMS in disguise. I trade the trend mate, personally I am selling the rises I am making an assumption that the DOW will drop due the other indices. I am not going outright bear as DOW has dropped is still in a very strong long term trend just placing shorts with minimal to b/e stops.

    But tell me are you just mad it isn’t going up? Others expected to rise with the divi but it didn’t … Ftse in a down trend.

    1. looking at support and resistance of the dow id be only tempted trade around the levels its at now 16335 and 16450, anywhere in between is madness in my opinion.

  59. Closed long with loss if 20 points. Scalping doesn’t work in this market… Should see a big drop tomorrow DOW needs a couple hundred point correction , unlucky blonde you in your long term long hahahaha.

  61. if the dow breaks 16320, i wouldnt be surprised to see it go to 16275 whenre the next real support would be

  66. Till the highs of DOW or beyond. Thursday will see how retail sales are. Expecting good news.
    Today a lot of volatility, was not expecting so much. Was looking for sideways till Thursday.
    Today seems sideways with an extra volatility

  67. I was expecting today a break of 16450 and I added in the pivot area with a stop below the lows of yesterday. The news from China were made yesterday. Did not expect this today. But holding for now. 16340-16330 hold

  68. My B/E is 16324 but I have stops in every position. So if tomorrow we make a lower low I will be stopped foe sure in the position open today. And if things get uglier I will be stopped in b/e for the 2 positions at 16276 and still have the other stop at 16240.
    Do not see more downside, but who knows, this yankees sometimes like to fuck hard

  69. Blonde are you a girl or guy ??

    Looking to go long choosing entry on FTSE but think it will go over for dive and bounce to low 30’s fingers on the buzzer

  70. I’ve held my short from 6600 for a couple weeks now. Finally near b/e again. Where this dip heading then. I’m looking for 6500 over next few weeks which is where I’ll reassess

  71. Shit your brave holding out white.
    Still waiting for an entry to go long FTSE setting up for a fall to thirties

    1. Thanks. I tend to trade small amounts for the medium term with very wide stops. This has worked and not worked. I prefer to trade like this than scalp the odd 10 points, i’m not very good at that. If you look at the daily too, 6600 seems quite a good middle region for either shorts or longs with wide stops in this current climate.

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