Good morning, well we got the drop yesterday from the 6810 area (admittedly it did go slightly higher, probably to take out a few stops) before dropping all the way to the target area at 6750. It also meant the Dax failed to hold above 9000, more on that below (members only). The 6750 area is still key to my mind and if this holds then we should see 6800 again, possibly a bit higher. Yesterday’s sell off was in anticipation of what he Fed were going to say, and that was basically nothing changing, tapering possibly next year (as suspected all along!). I still suspect April 2014 for a reduction in QE, to get Q1 out the way and assess the data coming out. That is just my hunch though!
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, trimming the best two-month rally for the regional benchmark gauge since the start of 2012, after the Federal Reserve fueled bets it may start paring stimulus sooner than previously forecast.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent to 142.63 as of 12:25 p.m. in Hong Kong, with eight of the 10 industry groups on the measure retreating. While the Fed said fiscal policy is “restraining economic growth,” policy makers see signs of “underlying strength.”
“Tapering is inevitable, and that’s what you read from last night’s statement,” said Donald Williams, Sydney-based chief investment officer at Platypus Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about A$1.6 billion ($1.5 billion). “The timing is still unsure, but the market is going to price in the likelihood of tapering in the next six months at the latest.”
The odds of the Fed starting to taper its stimulus in January rose to 45 percent from 25 percent before yesterday’s statement, Citigroup Inc. said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg Oct. 17-18 predicted the Fed would begin paring stimulus in March.
US Futures
Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent today after the equity gauge yesterday lost 0.5 percent, halting a four-day winning streak.
The Fed maintained its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases yesterday as expected by strategists, saying it needs to see more evidence that the economy is improving.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is pushing unprecedented accommodation into the final months of his term as he seeks to shield the four-year economic expansion from the impact of higher borrowing costs and this month’s partial U.S. government shutdown. The 16-day closing resulted in the furloughs of as many as 800,000 federal workers and delayed release of data the Fed says it needs to evaluate the economy.
FTSE Outlook
I am inclined to think that the 6750 area will hold for the short term and we get a bounce back to today’s pivot at 6787. If 6750 breaks then 6713 looks likely to be hit which is the bottom of the 20 day Bianca channel. We are hovering around the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at the moment, having dropped off from the top of that channel yesterday at 6810. I have next week pencilled in for it to start getting more bearish though after yesterday the worm could be starting to turn now. If the pivot breaks and movement can gain traction above 6787 then we should get the top of the 10 day channel again at 6827, possibly higher at 6845. S1 support level for today is also 6754 so there are quite a few supporting cases for this level. For the open the EMAs are negative on the 30 minute chart so the bulls will need to be quick out the blocks if this level is to hold.
We are at the bottom of a fairly decent channel on the 30 minuet chart and with the supports and key levels at 6750 I feel an initial long is worth it from here, however a tight stop as if this level breaks then a test of 6710 is likely. I have plotted a fairly bullish course for today, mainly as I don’t think its downhill from here just yet, and I had a long at 6750 pencilled in from yesterday. That play will probably just carry over to today. I put in a little dip to the 50 level and the bottom of the channel though its held pretty well so far above so might not dip back there.
Good Morning all. anyone still looking for 6840 or 6800+?
Long @ 6750 (very minimum, looking to add more if pulls down)
That’s what I am looking, Senu. For my even 6780 would be great.
Nick, I’m with you on the last rise above yesterdays high, due to 6750 is wave 4 on the 15 min chart, with wave 5 around 6850 ish.
IG has recommends a short on the DAX, which to me implies a short covering rally ?
Oh, Gosh, thank you Nick. At least I will try to hold my long after all. And see what happens.
Senu, are you long?
OK, I noticed.
Hi Jack, Hope you are fine. I too have lost more last few days, nearly the account. Mostly because into early trades, if luck then 10-15 pts otherwise same is a loss. Trying to be very cautious to protect my capital. GL
Not sure that 6750 holds.
Yep, not the best times. I am trying to choose a trade and stick to it, but at the moment sticking costs me.
Nick, I look at your chart, is it Intertrader’s chart or IG’s?
FTSE lead the charge yesterday to 6820, today its lagging the European markets, what a difference a day makes…
I think, the rise could be cancelled.
why is it always me?
I didn’t know Balotelli was a trader
Hey White, I got that 🙂
yea looking like sell sell sell time guys. markets nuts as always. ftse underperforming relative today. Nick you going long here @ 6741 or selling ?
Nick’s chart does show only if support taken @ 6750. last 1 hour FTSE below support. I am thinking to close my long as close as 6750 and short there.
as said, closed @ cost and shorted @6749.5. Nothing much for me, only serving brokers 🙂
closed for 4 pts only .. will watch for sometime.
senu I think this is a market spoof. I could be wrong but with month end etc we could see a ramp into close also us futures trading ok. ftse on its own for some reason
FTSE had gone too much, than other European markets. US jobless claims data today. Hope we some raise during that time. You r rite. not much movement in dow futures, but nasdaq is dipping.
what do you mean by ramp?
here comes the long trade ambulance to take the shorts out in a stretcher
Maybe this is a long?
lol.. john 🙂
I wouldn’t rule out a return to 6820, as we bounce around the apex of this cycle. But right now, FTSE/1 hr. has been locked in a negative channel since 8 am today, and doesn’t seem too keen on breaking out of it.
Eventually it will break.
FTSE struggling with the 6750 level, must be lots of traders who longed and now trying to get out at breakeven after see 6740…
Dax flying again.
Hello b/e. If you were me, would you close this long now?
It seems, Shell created the perfect storm to FTSE. After the shooting star yesterday, Shell reported bad earnings this morning, weakening the market and confirming that candle.
Let’s see if this is for real, because it’s lagging the other indices. It cannot be for ever. Or the others following it or the opposite
Shorted @ 6755
DOW just broken the 55 EMA in the 30 minute chart.
FTSE range bound so far.
I am expecting one more visit to 6740 or possibly lower
Had enough, why didn’t I close then.
I have lost 90% of my trades in last 5 days. Now my confidence is bit low. Is there anything else I can do apart from taking a break from trading?
scratch cards?
Only kidding. Take a break until next week. think over where you went wrong. learn from those mistakes and come back fresher and stronger. 90% of people lose on SB so don’t take it personally. It takes time, and I mean a hell of a lot of time to learn and get disciplined, where most people have wiped by the time they learn to trade. Go back to minimum stakes and stick to that.
GL
Thanks Flash.
sam, trading is an addiction thats why you couldn’t be apart even after you made a decision to take a break. if that is the case, first , forget what happen till your last trade and watch for small opportunity and close trades in less than 5-10 pts. so that you gain confidence. today is month end . so little bit choppy. this is what i am doing today. just thought to share. GL
Thanks Senu
shorts booked bit earlier
oh i wish id kept my short on dax on. Closed far too early as it was too big a pointage. Things are pointing to a drop now. Charts are top of daily charts, poor jobs reports, weak German confidence and the RAF flying over my house.
GLA
Well, maybe I did sell at right time lol
I’m long @6740.
GL, keep your stops tight.
…and out. had my hand on the close button at +10points, but couldnt click it, so got +4
Good bye account.
Jack you are beyond help.
Stops are always your friend. They should be placed at the same time as any trade. Why oh why can you not learn to risk manage.
Shame as you are such an honest poster.
Why? Jack Two?
Any short Dow?
Jack,
If you want to make money trading you MUST make your own decisions. Use this forum as a place to share thoughts and ideas but you must identify your own entry and exit points. When you get some more dosh together look at the charts say 30 minutes and 5 minutes, use Nick’s support and resistance points and decide to make ONE TRADE DAILY for a week. Build your confidence slowly.
best of luck
Oh, yeah, Just give them my money. What stops? I need to win at least once, I DIDN’T WIN FOR AGES (5-10 points wins are not into account). If I have to risk a whole account to win 20 points I will. I have nothing left. I can go -50 points to win 20 points – I will be the happiest person in the world. OK, just close your stop (which was 6740 by the way, now it’s opened), MY LIFE IS A COMPLETE CLOSING A STOP.
Yesterday – closed on stop, today closed on stop – this way I will never win anything.
I wish I closed on b/e at 6758, now I am angry.
Jack, i am same with you. not sure how much you loss? i lots lots due to Dow taper,war and debt ceiling. I am trader small. market very hard to tell or guess…
Lots of money, 170 quid at the moment
that still ok i am 30k.
Insanity.
very sorry for that.
As mentioned previously expecting a drift back to the 6600-6650 mark in the coming weeks. Tuesday’s close was a good chance to take some risk off the table until the next FOMC…..and then long into the first week of Jan.
Very interesting to compare the daily chart from 21st, 22nd and 23rd May with this week. Very similar pattern emerging.
Ahwab missing, may be counting his money 😉
So from tuesday bullish shambles, recover quite a bit, end of the month people are balancing the books
Seems to be a stop take out policy here got taken out last night at 6740 got back in long again stop at4730 taken out again then it moves up again the country is in a poor state when this is the only way they have to get money
Held my short from tuesday at 6770. Looking good so far. Looking for 6650. Will move stop to b/e soon
>Well my trail stop is in place (6692). Didn’t get my 6840 target. And things are becoming worse. No one can guess a top. So I think I will be stopped with modest gains and what pisses me is that I believe it will bounce where I put my stop
Senu in this environment I only trade once a day, as small bounces unnerve me. I understand jack two to an extent, whenever you open a trade it goes the opposite way, then goes the opposite way again when you reopen. So I reduce the number of trades to reduce emotional issues.
Good luck all, 1st of the month tomorrow, we will see some rise tomorrow?
Jack, Ahwab is right.
I used to trade and close like 10 to 20 trades a day with the look of small gains. I am now on one or two trades a day, maybe every 2nd day. You need to start reading the market as you see it, sometimes you need to just trade smaller for a bigger gain in the end. When I posted about three days ago about the bears I opened 2 short positions, haven’t traded since and both are now running profit.
I will only now open trades on the long again when I think the bounce will come for year end rally.
GL
Very true. I know we have very different strategies and timeframes but I aim to do no more than 10 trades a year. I should only do 6 but sometimes boredom can take the better of me. Next year, as every year, I tell myself need to be more disciplined. The problem is that for anyone their strategy evolves over time and if there is some short term success with the new approach then it suddenly becomes the strategy. In the medium to long term though it often leads to pain.
Nothing wrong with an evolving strategy – it’s a drifting one which is the problem. Even experienced MDs at Investment Banks suffer from that.
I just hope it will go up tomorrow as a beginning of new month, if it doesn’t break 6700 today it might do. If it doesn’t go up, I will start thinking what to do.
Opening trading days in November. 8 up 2 down.
1st November 2012 +79
1st November 2011 -122
1st November 2010 +20
2nd November 2009 +60
3rd November 2008 +66
1st November 2007 -135
1st November 2006 +20
1st November 2005 +27
1st November 2004 +49
3rd November 2003 +45
Might be a good omen Jack
Oh, 1st November didn’t look promising….
Oh, I’ve just got it, you gave my Novembers of different years. One of them was -132 so I noticed it first.
Let’s hope.
I mean, let’s hope it will be a positive one.
Its honestly because of you and a few others that im still holding onto my short at 6813 from yesterday(i just keep adjusting the stop)- its so true what most of the more experienced traders on this forum say. i too trade quite frequently and find it hard to not be in a trade but since yesterday ive been realizing that being disciplined helps alot so now i will definitely try to restrict my trades-but i guess its easier said than done.
im not sure who said it yesterday but i read something like ‘theres are a lot of trading opportunities to make you money but it only takes one bad trade to lose it all’-which really hit home since this statement could easily sum up the past couple months of when i began trading.
Good on you but remember not to listen to too many people. No one can predict the market 100% of the time and when it goes against you it is best it was beacuse of you and not because of some bloke on the interweb. Remember a loss in itself doesn’t necessarily mean a bad trade or even a mistake – merely that the strategy didn’t work that time. People, especially inexperienced traders, often ignore psychology but it is the most important part of successful trading in my opinion.
Ahwab, I just wanted to get your view sometimes during my trade. Thanks.
dow and dax recovering, but FTSE still selling
ok, i’ve reentered the trend long at 6731 stop 6691 target 6900+, buying at the bottom of the currently weekly bar and closing of last weeks bar looking to provide support. Market breadth looking to provide likely support in this area.
The down leg predicted for next week by Nick – How far down do people think?
Will I see 6840 tomorrow, before 6692 ? No one has the answer. But looking at the charts the 4 hourly, does not look good. The price crossed below (for the 1st time in more than a month) the 20ma and now the normal target would be the lower BB at 6705. I noticed also, that in best scenarios we could start moving sideways, with other bounce to top of BB at 6807. 6840 is currently out of sight.
So if I have luck, not being stopped with a spike below the BB at 6705 I could be out in 6800 area.
\Well this is the current scenario
Also if we can not break tomorrow or close in the highs of yesterday, we are for a similar candle from May. And deja vu in place.
It would be IMPORTANT that the BULLS do not lose this battle tomorrow, because of anything but profit taking from the huge bounce.
This profit taking could be a disaster for the bulls if they do not controlled it.
ALso to say , that I hate being short.
any reasons why ftse so weak guys as all other indices seem ok ?
This is not the first time. Only in the last month FTSE was behaving quite well.
Now it seems it is starting to behave in a conservative way again, like the british people.
Tomorrow will be crucial, with a “Déja Vu” candle from last May. I think I will be out of FTSE for good and return to DAX.
ANd why I say Deja Vu ? because human brain looks to patterns.
For example, that shooting star yesterday was an excuse to a red day today
… wasn’t that candle in May down to big ben’s media friends uttering the immortal taper phrase, surely thats not the same as now? its QE heaven underpinning for a while .. no dark clouds and all that, relatively benign ease back of 1-2%? if that much 😉
Yes, I’m with you. But you see that in FTSE ? I do not see it yet
DAX is already in another time high. FTSE is still struggling with last MAY top
*DAX is already in another all time high
Yes, and Bungling Ben proceeded to play further havoc in the markets on June 19-20, and totally disrupted my portfolio. Re your point about a possibly benign ease-back, thought you might be interested to see the graph below. FTSE/daily started to decelerate on Oct 23; 8 days ago, and has just gone over the top. It might bounce around a bit now, but my point is that the rate of deceleration has been gentle until now, while underlying growth appears solid, and not yet affected. So a reasonable outcome might be a shallow downturn, say, 6550 around mid-November. After that who knows?
http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/1977/qv1x.png
6550 ??? well I hope not being here if it goes that way. I surely will be in my German DAX.
If FTSE goes again to that levels I do not see any good outcome for FTSE. It only reaffirms that this will be a downtrend market and beginning to look alike Nikkei
Maybe this is the reason why I saw some contrarian price targets from Goldman and other investment house. You are doomed
Yep – I see 6530 as the low point of any retracement here so agree with your analysis. More likely it may stabilise around 6650. Good chance to buy the dips and average down. Levels I would suggest are 6650 and 6530 but if want to trade more it would be 6700, 6650, 6575 and 6525 with the aim to catch the bounce to above 6800 by year end.
I’ll shout when I get sight of an upturn Javed. The debt ceiling nonsense threw out the last up signals by about a week. 🙂
AN upturn ???? Are you saying we are in a downturn ?
The debt ceiling ???? As I recall that stuff is at least one month older and was what turn the markets up (for who trade in the news – not me)
too much volatile… why?
BULLS fighting with BEARS :DD
who won?
Even the DOW that matches FTSE, already left behind that MAY TOP
#FTSE #FTSE100 found support at 6718 (OUT22,24 resistance and OCT29 support).Let’s see if the British has the force to break May’s TOP
#FTSE #FTSE100 don’t let me down. DOW and DAX already left behind May’s TOP. This last is also at all time highs
I beg you #FTSE #FTSE100 go to work that muscles. Leave behind that beers and pubs.
You have work to do tomorrow, or I will not visit you anymore.
Do not be the bad guy. Look at DAX and DOW, follow them. Be a leader
Tomorrow Friday and also the first day of the month. The mood still bullish but the bears getting ready my guess tomorrow will decide and that will be the direction for next week…
Can anyone see a sell off into US Close? Thinking it’s quite likely. Looks toppy
Looks very toppy. Certainly there may be a push to finish below 15,600. 15594 would be a good target.
Held long on FTSE all day @ 6750 as short on the DOW as hedge…
Closed long just now @ b/e and shorted at 6752… 22 up after hours, this should hedge my CAC long as this has not moved after hours…
Markets simply digesting yesterdays curved ball from Ben and reading too much into it. Trend resumes so it’s Status Quo, One direction, (any more bands we can link to trading?) 🙂
FTSE starting to look better after hours. The 30 minute chart as just cross above the 55 EMA and the slopes are starting to get positive.
Wanna see more of that in the next hours
Got rid of it just about b/e cos I missed a couple of points was working. Tomorrow it will dip and I will buy (if I have a connection).
The price is just starting to cross above the 20ma again in the 4 hourlychart.
We may see tomorrow the price in 6800 area and then I will think again if this is the right choice to exit my positions or stay a bit more longer.
The highs of yesterday should be broken so I could stay till next week.
I have strong resistance on the DOW at 15650-60… Also my EW count is looking for next wave down to circa 15475-500 level before a push to new highs for end of year. Im Short DOW at 15651 and will add at 665 if seen… Stop at 15740. Don’t think we’ll see FTSE at 6800 again, until a proper corective wave down to circa 6550 area.
Looks like 15550 may be tested into close on the DOW… Expect to see my targets early next week. Ive redrawn my FTSE chart and a correction to 6600-50 range may be enough to hit new highs before end of year
Personally I think we are in for the dip now. I’d be surprised if we breach 6800 tomorrow.
this is what markets normally do. Surprise you
Playing out vey well so far
Thanks Jim…..I’m just riding this one out till Jan. As you know Im long from 6425 so can’t complain. As expected bit of a dip between the 2 FOMCs and then hopefully a Santa rally to take us back over 6800. Even 6950 was mentioned in the Standard today!
If we break 6770 tomorrow, I see another bounce
You are desperate for this bounce… Correction to the downside then 6800+ into end of year. Expect your 6696 stop to get hit tomorrow. Just my opinion
is not 6696, is 6691, and you bet I’m desperate. I need the British do their homework and not starting again lagging.
They need to prove that the May top is broken.
It’s more than time to do it. The max retrace I admit now is 23,6% around the 6707 area. Anything less I’m out for good. And the longs here are doomed.
Goldman will issue another contrarian price target in 7000 or more and FTSE will go in a free fall.
I know you are used to it, but I’m more of a DAX trader and I made detour to this indice because of large gaps left in DAX.
any long long Ft and Dow?
I hope it’s bull to 6800 today.
Good luck Jack!
I hope so, I need it so badly.
FTSE/1 hr. – That downward channel since 30 Oct. 09:00 is still dominating price action.
anyone going long here ?
I am short until at least 6600, I will then only change my stance and buy the dips…
Jack, don’t think we will see that 6800 today, but if you are willing to hold on and have the equity to do so, then December you will see that again. Otherwise you are in a bit of a pickle unfortunately…
GL
Have to agree with Havies. My strategy too. 6700 and 6625 are good medium term levels to buy the dip and hold.
Jack, why are u still stand on long side while everyone is short?
Javed – re your long from 6425, very nice, well done! Aren’t you tempted to cash in now though? You must be quite confident about the ‘Santa rally’. 🙂
Tempted of course Jim! I didn’t expect it to shoot straight up from 6338 to 6800 plus so quickly so it is tempting to close my books for the year now and walk away. However have to maintain my discipline and follow my strategy. It got me into the trade and now I have to wait till it exits me out of the trade.
@PMSTrader, British work out not enough yesterday. It went to US pub