6810 and 6845 resistance today

Good morning, well that was bullish all day yesterday, even breaking the 6775 support with relative ease. Unfortunately prices didn’t dip to the ideal buy area around 6700 but I know some of you held from that level on Monday. It will be all eyes on the Fed later as their 2 day meeting concludes, and its widely expected that tapering won’t be considered till next year, hence the bullishness this week. on the news front we have some German jobs data out just before 9am whilst in the US at 12:30 we have consumer price index data – which should move prices around a bit. The real fireworks will be at 6pm when the Fed release the outcome of their meeting on rates and tapering.

bianca trends
bianca trends

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, with the benchmark index heading for a monthly gain, and bond risk fell before the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting. Emerging currencies weakened and oil dropped.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.5 percent at 2:15 p.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index climbed 0.7 percent as the yen held a three-day drop. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) futures were little changed. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 40 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan headed for its biggest monthly drop since June 2012. Yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds slid to the lowest since May. Indonesia’s rupiah slumped the most in two months, crude slid 0.5 percent in New York and copper advanced.

Economists expect the Fed will maintain its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases at a meeting ending today. Bank of Japan policy makers gather tomorrow. Japanese factory production returned to growth in September, while South Korean industrial output shrank, data today showed. Toshiba Corp., Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. and Honda Motor Co. are among companies reporting earnings today.

“There is consensus that the timing of tapering will be delayed, and I don’t think there will be any surprises from this meeting to alter that view,” Kikuko Takeda, a senior analyst in London at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. said about the Fed meeting. “The dollar has been consolidating.”

Consumer Confidence

Data yesterday showed consumer confidence in the U.S. fell and an Oct. 22 report revealed growth in American jobs slowed in September. The Fed will decide today to keep purchases of mortgage-backed securities at $40 billion and Treasury buying at $45 billion, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

The U.S. also releases inflation data for September today, with consumer price growth estimated to have slowed to 1.2 percent from a year earlier, after rising 1.5 percent in August, a Bloomberg survey shows.

Earnings and Fed stimulus have helped extend the S&P 500’s advance to 24 percent in 2013, which would mark its best yearly rally in a decade.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

To start with we are just above the 6791 resistance area as I write this and the EMAs are still bullish, so we may see a little rise to the top of the Bianca 10 day channel at 6811, however, to start with I don’t think it will be particularly bullish and a dip to the pivot/10 day Bianca channel bottom is the most likely initial play, either from 6791 or 6810. Prices stayed pretty bullish after the close yesterday though a break of the 6750 area could be the bulls undoing for the moment. I am still expecting the bullish theme to continue for the moment and a possible dip likely to start next week.

144 Comments

        1. No sam, I am waiting for 6791 for long . if only I get that price and not shorting now. Gone short of money after yesterday’s shorts

  3. Review of the last 14 trading days since the daily swing long.
    Same trade setup i always post. Close above the opening range and retrace to 10sma on a 15 min chart. Stop under opening range low. stop trailed on previous days low but moved to opening range low when opening range high is taken out. You can scale in 1/2 on the first setup and half on the next setup for a low risk entry. 8 out of nine entry’s worked for an easy 300 points. The one trade that is red was the retrace to the 20dma that usually always happens but i took profit and bought the retrace when it was oversold and then held for the long swing. To be honest your stop should have been under the 20dma so the trade would have been good. This is the same way i trade all stocks also. Real simple and low stress, low risk. http://i1276.photobucket.com/albums/y469/stealthtrader1/FTSE30minrangeOCT_zps275c3e5d.png The low risk entry’s are always the early ones when you think its risky. Don’t overthink things, just take the trade and manage your stop. simples

    1. what platform is that looks pretty cool…ig doesnt have free advanced charting software which is a shame :9

  4. I was holding long from yesterday. Trailing stop cut me off at that last dip. Now set another long to go at 6789. Now just wait and see!!!

  5. If the news comes more dovish than expected, I believe we can break the May top.
    DAX has already broken the 9000 level.
    We are in a crucial day. Look at the daily candle from the May top.
    If we hold at these levels, I see another leg up, if we break the 6880.

      2. I forgot to add, that we broke a bull flag in daily chart. Anf that target is still far away. Look at my chart in twitter.
        Surely we will have a pull back, the indicators are starting to become overbought, but not enough as of past May

        1. .. the way i read it, the only thing that stopped the rally continuing unbroken all year was talk of taper, if you take that out in May, we would have reached 7000 then and surely be at 7500 by now?

          1. nothing goes straight up, this is just normal price action. we would still have normal pullbacks without taper talk or whatever the latest thing is. go back on a monthly to the 80’s and look at the move from 1000 up to nearly 6900.. All pullback were just normal retraces to the 50mma or 20mma. they look terrible on a daily but just normal on the monthly.

  6. .. well a leg up in the next few days, or pause for a week, drop 50pts then fire on up, can you see a retrace of any kind before the leg up 🙂

    1. 6770 (EMA 13), STOP at (6740-6750) would be a good entry point, if you are out. But I think will be difficult this number.
      To respect the ascending trend line from the 4hourly chart, 6789 would be great

  7. I just wait now because I feel that is too high to go long and is not looking like it want to go down so just wait till it start to come down. I believe once it will start to come down there will be a few pips to grab so not in rush to get in a trade…..

  9. Nice call PMS, must have done well yourself. Personally still holding on to my positions @6770 & 6800. Increased stops to 6910.
    Ps unlike a few traders on this forum I do not trade £100 per pip lol.
    Too many people selling atm hence the continued buying – on with the stop hunt!

    1. BTW – went to see your boys last night (don’t ask why). Although despise Chelski with a similar passion have to say the gulf in class was pretty evident. Another trophy-less season it seems………by the end of December the Goners will be out of 3 competitions. Haha

      COYS!

    1. nope, not yet. Not sure if I made a mistake by not booking. Am looking for 6840 today or tomorrow. I have wide stops.

  11. warning!
    1. Weekly traders (like me) starting to look to book profits
    2. Concensus starting to move to trying going long
    So although it will probably go higher medium term, short term may see a bigger dip than you think…just to stop out those switching to long with tight stops!

        1. ok, but I need to see that daily candle in end of the day.
          Only than I can see more clear

  12. 😀 if it reaches 6770, it would be a good place to buy. It closes that gap from yesterday

  16. Might see a rise after FED decision then the dip overnight , as always in these situations the outcome has already been decided with all this bullishness.

  19. I will never understood why some people go the wrong side in the obvious trend. Trading in the markets is already risky enough

  22. With the amount of confidence people have had with longs yesterday and today, I’m starting to think the downside is coming very soon. Got a strange feeling.

      1. Not really. From the basis of this forum, many people have been trying to short this upward trend throughout all of October. Its only been the last couple of days I have noticed most people turning to long positions…

        I guess if @ftseday goes into a long position then that is the biggest signal of them all… GO SHORT. LOL

        3. NO, he is sticking to his shorts all the way. He never give up of being short. I gone to see there fucking tweets

  24. Longs are going to get burnt very soon. This is going drop, and just keep going, maybe not today, but this week imho. Need a correction to circa 6500 over the next few weeks before 7800 end of year.

    2. In terms of BTD it would be worth taking note of Nick’s chart at circa 6756-60 area, with a sharp stop loss in place in case it tanks

  27. Completely opposite of yesterday people but the dip, fuelling the bears, if we break 6754 who knows?

  31. The pivot for today is 6766. ANother drop in this area after a bounce, to form a base.

  32. Don’t really understand why people are going long? 30 min candlestick seem bearish, no sign of reversal yet…

  35. We are looking for a shooting star in daily chart…. hmmmm
    I still have to see tomorrow if it confirms that candle

  36. As I said yesterday it was a good opportunity to bank some longs. I’m expecting any breather to be between the FOMC meetings. However I wouldn’t want to be short in this market either. More a case of buying the dips at 6700, 6650, 6575 and 6525 if they get hit.
    Still looking to end the year above 6800.

  38. Hi,
    Appologies for being away for a couple days from this place, just been busy with trading and stuff.
    As i mentioned last week about bull markets (when majority were expecting a pullback at 6720 level), I AM STILL EXPECTING MARKETS TO BE BULL (as Nick likes to say, cautiously).

    1. Jack from reading all the stuff u write here, your a type of person who wants to be in the trade just for the sake of it.
      Trust me like you just mentioned how broken you are, let it keep breaking u.
      Eventually you will realize, the most important skill in trading is to protect your money with your life! that will make u wait for opportunities rather than just being the in market all the time.
      I used to be like this, trade 3+ times a day. Now if i trade 3 times a week either theres tons of opportunities OR im doing something totally wrong.
      “Theres infinite possibilities to make money in the market, but only 1 trade to lose all your money!

      1. ofc dont let urself lose all ur hard earned money or even worse go in debt, trade with tiny amounts.

        1. I definitely need to reduce amount of trades. I think this might be the key. Plus sticking to the trades rather than jumping out.
          That short 6815 which I took could have been good if I didn’t jump out of it with profit of 10 points and went out. When I was back I was trying long and ended up with a loss.

  40. Just had a look at FTSE/monthly. First indication of turning down. Monthly range has been large of late – as a spinning top wobbles! It’s plausible on this timeframe (my opinion) that the next dip could take us through to next summer. Mark my words. (5750 🙂 )

  43. My view is FTSE will see 6850-6900 before dropping to even 6700.
    I am currently long (If FTSE drops to 6750, im closing all my positions).

  44. PMS what sort of trader are you Daily/weekly etc, just interested as to your methods. Thanks, your posts have been helpful

  45. It depends. Right now I’m for a swing trade
    There were some signs that FTSE was going for a huge bounce. After it crossed over the 200 MA. My target was in the 6800 area, then as it progressed I moved my target to 6840.
    Now, I do not know if it’s time to close the positions or not.
    Today´s candle (shooting star) near to May’s top, gave me some doubts.
    Tomorrow, end of the day, I will now for sure if this was the right choice I made or not.

  46. Market sure dam did get a bit excited for like 3 seconds lol and then stable!
    I actually increased my long position just wen the results came out..lets see

  51. … you gotta love this, they get what they want and it tanks 🙂 couldnt have gone better if they’d tapered

  52. I still believe FTSE to be bullish! this is just a little pullback (will change my view if 6700 breaks)

      1. looool feels like my account has bounced of its all time high!
        will bianca channels work on it ? 😛

  55. Today and early tomorrow will be crucial. There was a setup for a sell, when the news came out, as the indicators were overbought. Will need to see if there is enough buyers to hold this strong uptrend

      1. BUT key level for me is 6700, if that breaks then its bears taking over (in the meantime im on the sidelines)

        2. And I hope not being stop there, because the 6663 level is more important and I believe this will be the place for the bounce, if this downtrend resumes tomorrow and next days.

  56. Sometimes I hate having stops in place when they get blasted out as easy as that.
    Been following this all day, everyone seems to be all-over with their trades / opinions…?

    2. Agreed, if you find that aspect of your trading frustrating why not try reducing your stake size and increasing your stops. Its just about what suits your trading style and what you find mentally acceptable.

      1. Thanks for the advice. I do agree, however it has been working okay for me, but I suppose there are always going to be sharper changes than others.

        I find I lose my overall view / position when anything gets taken out, clouds my judgment. Probably best to just sit on the sidelines now and re-group, rather than chase a loss.

  58. PS Javed, Hull is going to win, their 1st team struggle with Hull last weekend. Will always be chasing nothing 🙂

  60. .. Anybody noticed these trading central charts on IG? They change there view about 5 times a day, their support and resistance points hardly any use at all

  66. I personally think we will now see a drift lower over the next 3 weeks.The sharp rises of the previous 5 weeks are now capped but can’t see it too far below 6650 at present.

  69. Still think the bears are hibernating?
    It’s Bear time baby, holding my shorts as before with wide stops. Like I said we will now see the steady decline and the dramatic rise in December. I will be looking to short until around at least the 6600 mark at which point I will buy the dip and any other that comes for a nice end of year profit. FTSE will probably break all time high in December 🙂
    GLA

    1. You have everything well planned. Let’s see if the markets do it accordingly to your plan

  70. Oh, I wish I knew what Nick thinks on today’s direction.
    His arrow up to 6800 didn’t happen yesterday though.

  71. dip to 6741 last night i got stoped out which i had at6740 i rang them they said because wider spread at night time

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