6710, 6755 and 6790 are the levels I’m watching today

bianca trends
bianca trends

Good morning, here we are at the start of another month. usually bullish as new money flows into funds so will it be today? Just missed the long yesterday at 6711, with the drop stopping at 6718 which was a tad annoying, however the bounce from there shows there is still a bit of strength remaining, even with the 6750 breaking. We still have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6740 so if that holds we could get a bounce to 6790 before further declines. The 20 day Bianca channel bottom is also at 6732 so double support here, though with the dip from 6810 the bears are slowly waking up. On the news front September saw the largest unsecured borrowing in the UK raising fears of another debt bubble, whilst the ECB is warned it must take immediate and pre-emptive action to head off the risk of full-blown deflation by next year. All key measures of eurozone inflation fell dramatically in October, leaving the region dangerously close to a Japan-style deflation trap. Consumer price inflation (CPI) plunged from 1.1pc to 0.7pc, the lowest since the financial crash in 2008-2009. “This is a massive downward surprise,” said Gizem Kara from BNP Paribas. A string of debt-crippled states are now sliding into deflation, with Italy buckling over the late summer. The underlying rate is even lower once austerity-linked tax rises are stripped out

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index paring its weekly advance, as speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus in coming months overshadowed improving China manufacturing data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5 percent to 141.66 as of 12:03 p.m. in Hong Kong, as all 10 industry groups retreated. More than two shares declined for each that rose. The measure is poised for a 0.2 percent advance since Oct. 25 and climbed 2.7 percent in October for its first back-to-back monthly rally since April.

This is “the start of a phase of consolidation that should last a few weeks,” Michael Bogoevski, head of sales trading at CMC Markets in Sydney, said in an e-mail. “There is the likelihood that the Fed is looking to cut back on its bond-buying program in the coming weeks or months, not in March as previously forecast.”

U.S. data yesterday showed the biggest jump in a gauge of business activity in more than three decades and a drop in jobless claims, before a report today projected to show American factory output expanded. Chinese manufacturing grew in October at a faster pace than the previous month, according to an official report today.

Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.1 percent today. The equity gauge yesterday slipped 0.4 percent on speculation the Fed will scale back stimulus in coming months as investors assessed earnings.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

I am expecting a rise then dip today, mainly as we are opening near the bottom of the shorter Bianca channels  and we had a decent bounce off the 6720 area yesterday. The bulls might struggle to break 6790 though. The key for some early morning growth will be holding above 6740, and I am expecting an open around 6750. On the news front later today we have the US ISM manufacturing figure, forecast at 55.1 versus 56.2 previously. The shutdown last month might have a bearing on the actual figure. Not much out on the UK news front, though house prices rose again last month, which is probably what fuelled that jump in credit card borrowing – a bit of feel good factor and a bit of extra spending. Been here before though haven’t we, 2007 cough cough!

81 Comments

        1. I agree 6710 has good support, as does 6700… But expecting at least 6650 next week as a healthy retrace and consolidation occurs… Cooling the techs off and allowing new highs into end of year. Im SHORT at 6758 from this morning with an initial target of 6650.

  3. … To many people forecasting a drop, just like when it was 6720 too many people shorting then it went to 6820, don’t be too quick out the blocks here 6700 looks a good support for an upward move in the short term 🙂

  4. IG has 80% of their clients short on the DAX, so there is enough fuel to ramp this up, and FTSE should follow…

  6. yea im in a lot ahigher at the open .. 6750 ‘s debating to just cut it an walk away altho I feel I am gonna miss a big bounce

        1. Jack if you are willing to hold until end of year you will get a nice profit out of that trade… However as ive mentionned a few times on this forum, don’t be surprised to see a retrace to the 6650 level as a healthy consolidation before new highs

          1. I am afraid my account will no survive that (if I not fuel it a bit more), so I plan to come out on any spike above 6760 if lucky to get there. That would be enough for me tbh.

  9. It’s so annoying, it opened above the pivot, all news shouting about 6840 target, the upper trend line, everything was there. I was definitely sure it was sure long. How on earth this could have happened? Why do they have to spoil everything for everyone. They know that people are sitting long, why they are not buying?

    1. Look, it even closed above the trend line and still it’s back below. What’s the matter with these guys. Just buy!!!

      1. Jack I am afraid you will never win with emotions like this… the market eats emotional traders for breakfast ! 🙂

        1. Well, I am only today like this, I am just too excited don’t know why. Normally I am afraid and try to cut the losses. I’ll see if this is a good thing to be brave after all.
          Why, are you not sure about the rise?

    2. You never should trade in the early hours of each session. You need to wait to cool down markets. Then you can access what can be next move. See the range of price….highs, lows…..

        1. I was “too hot” after yesterday – LOL – plus I really needed to go out at 8.40 for 40 minutes so I thought 6750-6729 were hot prices to buy, so it was a bit hasty I agree.
          But yes, normally I am here after 9 am.
          Gosh, yesterday my platform reinstated my trade, which they automatically closed at 4.30! I was -250 pounds loss at that time and didn’t understand why I was closed. I phoned them and a guy said it wasn’t set as a roll over account. !!!! – They didn’t warn me about it before! So that kind guy reinstated my position after me sneakily asking for it. I was really lucky, suddenly I found myself -100 pounds which I later closed b/e.

  10. Jack…mate…you are making me miserable everytime I scroll down the board. I’m not even down and I don’t want to trade anymore.

      1. Very funny. I see I became a local amusement here.
        Well, I don’t mind, otherwise the life would be boring.

  11. … Jack just heard a great soundbite tha might help “its not timing the market .. its time in the market that counts”

  13. So… how is the weather in Britain. Any sunshine out there ? Maybe we can see any joy today in FTSE again.

  16. Today ft close at 6800 n start drop next week. Due to china data is strong n uk data is stay above 55. Do you agree?

  17. 6731 has acted as support for 3 dips now … hoping FTSE to try breaking 6554 ..
    which i think it won’t be able to and expecting a drop as well thereafter ..
    Hope I am not the only one on the boat with this mindset 🙂

          1. I was so nervous so I closed as soon as the 1st red candle appeared. Phew. I didn’t have the best entry so I needed to get out ASAP.
            Just need to sort myself over weekend, it was a roller coaster week for me – changing platforms etc.

  27. Senu short for next week, I haven’t traded once today still got my positions on DAX and ftse running since wednesday

  28. This is like the tour-bus at the end of The Italian Job dangling off the cliff. Nobody has a clue what’s going to happen!

    2. Agreed .. I’m new to this Indices game since August .. I’m just a bit in profit from a
      SP 500 call more luck I think . I’m more into equities and do this for a dabble .

      I have a gut feeling next year this whole system is going to crash big style . I’m going to lucky dip when I time my short !! GL

  29. THe only good news in FTSE is that it’s holding above the 6700 level.
    By this time in May, it already had broken that level

  30. I think this time something is different, that’s why I still have my positions. And the 6840 target algo was not hit

  31. I think we are in a indicators relief for more bounce, maybe to broke the Mays’s top.
    In May the indicators were much more stretched than this time and the price reach not to much higher than now.
    With a week close above the 6700 level, the price is just not satisfied with this levels yet. It just wanted some breath.

  34. I noticed this morning the different slopes of std. error channels applied to the main indices from the beginning of the second half of the year up to the latest end of day data. The estimates of growth probably raise more questions than they answer, but perhaps they are interesting nonetheless. Of course, short-term channels are likely to reorientate as the series develop. Dif. % is estimated straight-line growth over the period 01 Jul-31 Oct 2013. Ann. % is the pro rata annualised figure.

    Dif. % Ann. %
    S&P 500 4.6% 9.5%
    Dow -0.1% -0.2%
    FTSE 1.7% 3.4%
    DAX 10.7% 22.0%
    NIKKEI 1.6% 3.4%

  35. Next week ftse n Dow is long due to china data n USA data on Monday release very strong m. I am long ftse n Dow ? Anyone on my same view?

    1. this should be other way round! if data shows strong growth then fear of early tapering will collect fuel, which may lead a sell off!

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