Rise towards 7472 today | ECB | Retail sales | US jobs data

20th July 2017

Not sure why it dropped 50 points at the open, unless it was just a stop hunt – no other real reason for it. Anyway, a retest of the 7380 support level saw the bulls re-appear and brought it up to our resistance at the 7440 level before stalling there. There is still the chance that we are on for 7474 today, a level where I expect some stalling

The ECB is forecast to keep policy on hold today, and a report that the bank has been examining options for asset purchases adds to speculation that Mario Draghi will concede that the time is approaching to adjust the bond-buying program as the economic recovery expands.

Asian stocks climbed for a ninth straight day, spurred by fresh all-time highs for U.S. equities and as the Bank of Japan maintained its mega monetary stimulus. The Australian dollar reversed an advance that saw it jump closer to 80 U.S. cents after a jobs report.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Raff Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Raff Channels

For today I am expecting the bulls to hold above the 7410 level and we see a test of the 7474 area. We have the top of the 20 day Raff channel just above this at 7484 as well, so if the bulls do rise to this area then we may well see a stutter around here. We also have the top of the Bianca channels fairly close by at 7453 for the 20day and 7469 for the 10day. There is only so long that US and Asian markets will keep making all time highs!

At 09:30 this morning we have retail sales data out in the UK, with the forecast to be a rise to 0.4%, versus -1.2% last month. Will it be that positive, not so sure! We also have the US jobs data out at 13:30 as well, and likely to provide more clues as to rate rises. Chances of a rate rise this year have dropped to 40% now. Gold rising suggests a hold on rates.

Support wise, we have 7410 on the 2 hour chart looking fairly key and also the 7380 level which was previous resistance and also support yesterday. The bears will still be keen to break this level as it opens up a run down towards 7300. For the moment though, things look bullish. That said, US fund managers are most underweight they have ever been on US equities!

Generally, the FTSE feels a bit toppy, as does the S&P500.

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81 Comments

  1. Anstel, yep, hopefully it will come to you today, mate. 7472 the tops so far. As for me.. I just got up, was too tired yesterday.

  2. Sold my gold holding for a 3% return in 2 weeks. Mainly because I want to redeploy this cash into stocks. Next target FTSE 7550. Its been a slow grind upwards and its due a major breakout day.
    Onwards and upwards.

  3. Morning Jack,I’m pretty close to some profit,lets see how we go but it’s looking favourable at the moment…good luck buddy…

          1. I Expect this to push past 500 but it will possibly need a few tests before it breaks then I think you will be surprised how much strength it has… Good luck..

            1. Don’t get greedy mate, after what you’ve been through I’d be looking to get out ASAP. Can always buy again above 7500 but it’s an expensive 20 points if it doesn’t make it

              1. Thanks Mcg,let’s just see how we go…I think we are going higher,sometimes ( I’m not saying your wrong about closing at b/e) but sometimes I feel traders close out a position in relief when it’s just setting up….I can’t see your 7100/7200 really happening just yet to be honest,time will tell,let’s just see how we go….good luck…

    1. We can’t take anything for granted candlemaster, Pride goeth before a fall… I found that from experience…..Euphoria is our worst enemy….should be good but anything can happen…good luck..

  4. Come on haters…losers…lets have some…I have your money! And I wont be handing it back.

    1. Don’t worry buddy it’s all a pack of cards. When it falls you will not be laughing 🙂

  5. Medium term FTSE is now neutral to me given the break and hold of 7440. A break through 7480-90 and it turns bullish. However, this could be the top of a b wave with a move down to sub 7300 still possible bigger picture so be careful with those longs! I’m short here at 7482 as a day trade, looking for 7440-50

  6. Now we spend a few hours sucking in retail shorts before the ECB propels FTSE through 7500 by dropping GBP USD. Followed by those squeezed shorts being forced to close…

    1. I’m not really a big believer in Elliot wave as too many times the counts have to be revised. Was just looking at the daily and weekly thinking it’s possible we make a lower high with lower lows to come but I think it’s dependent on this area holding. Above 7500 and it’s off the table IMO

      1. Got the top of the 10 day Raff at 7515 currently. If it tests that it will be a full crossing from bottom of channel at 7300 on 11th July…..

  7. Anstel, when I saw 7492 I would have just closed honestly, I wouldn’t be able to hold any more. Nick said something about stutter at 480 area, I wouldn’t underestimate it. I just closed my long from 12494 for 36 points and I am happy, got 50 quid in my bank and I don’t care where the markets will go, for my 6 point stop loss I am happy with the reward I got. Sometimes we just need to make a safe decisions to carry on in this game. Not too careless.

    1. What’s funny thing, I had a long 12494.4 and when it started falling at 11.30 by then I had enough so I gave my phone to my son cos he needed to call. I was sure it was closed b/e when I opened at 13.00 Wow, it survived today. It didn’t touch my b/e by 0.4 point. Wow, yesterday it touched precisely and bounced back so it was closed. Wow, today thanks, markets.

      1. Just wait Jack,don’t get scared out of a position…if I can hold when I’m down I sure as hell can hold when I’m in profit……you have to control emotions and evaluate where you think the trade is going….good luck and thanks for your support….:0)

        1. To be honest as to this trade, I didn’t even expect to see any profits thinking it was long closed, so when I saw profits I just decided to take it as a spontaneous act rather than thoughtful one. On one had I could lose 36 points or gain some more? I am a sparrow, it takes time to grow into an eagle.

          1. No Jack…..think first,take profits later….trading from impulse is not what we want to do…..we have a neo cortex for a reason…..let’s use it…

      2. Yeah, I should have held Dax a little bit more, but… I am still happy, I am not an eagle, I am a sparrow.

  8. Took 4k profit on failure to launch to 7550. Other half gets stopped out at 7478. Just wait for the next rush of easy money. Laaaavvvveelllyyyyyyy!

      1. Dont know jack. But failure to really kick on hard today puts me on the sidelines. I would love to see a drop for a few days set up a buying opportunity.

        1. Yes, a bit choppy price action today also put me off or resuming longs after 13.30 fall.

  9. Took profits(net) on the shorts opened today. Back to regular 100% hedge position on ftse

      1. I still don’t understand. Sometimes when you say that it’s either the price goes up or down. So as I understand you’re celebrating the down today? For me Trump associates with rises.

        1. last week we had the news that his son had talks with the russian lawyer….the dow dropped about 100 points then made an immediate climb back up. I rode the the downward leg but missed the climb up. Today the news is that Mueller will investigate Trumps business and associates… the dow dumped about 40 points and went back up.

            1. …Dont worry Jack, apparently US politics has no influence on the markets at the moment other than to test your trigger finger !

    1. Yes I am short. But currently hedged with a 100% long. Plan to get rid of the long slightly North of 500 and add to shorts

  10. Yes and just added after hours

    Dow and Dax looking lacklustre and Brexit negotiations facing reality. There’s only one way to go.

  11. I’m FTSE short at 98…

    It may rise but cable is coming up again and I don’t think
    It will crash enabling the FTSE to soar…,could be wrong?

    Also all Tech stocks are peaking..,think when these fall it will drag FTSE down with it (and Dow, SPX, Nasdaq….)

    Just my thoughts.

  12. Im tempted to short this overnight but I think tomorrow will be a day when tight stops will be triggered on the up and down

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