Bulls still in charge for a push toward 7510 and 7600 | ECB | Trump investigation

21st July 2017

Another day and the FTSE pushed on to test the 7505 level this time before dropping back along with the US on news that the investigation into Donald Trump (the knives are definitely out for him aren’t they!) is going to be widened to include business dealings with Russia. The price then failed to better 7500 for the remainder of the session despite the US bouncing back from the lows, and overnight has dipped a little. The Asia markets also took a breather after a steady rise this week, dropping back a little bit.

Its Freaky Friday today, so I tend to do reduced stakes today, we also have option expiry so likely to see some spikiness at 10:10 till 10:20 as option contracts roll over. A spike up can be a good spot to short – might spike to the 7530 level though if it goes mad. Caution needed!

Yesterday ECB President Mario Draghi signaled the bank would discuss language on bond purchases in the autumn. No decision has been made on timing or form of any tapering, with the timeline remaining open.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Support Resistance Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Support Resistance Channels

The daily chart has gone bullish now with decent looking support at 7425, but I am still not ruling out a test of the 7600 level at some point soon. The bulls failed to break that last time to test the 7650 resistance at the time, but it would set up a decent double top at that level. Not today though I don’t think!

So, if we do rise up towards XXXX and then turn down from here, I am thinking that the XXXX and then XXXX area is a decent initial target with the XXXX area below that.

Should the bulls break XXXX then we have a decent fib level at XXXX as a possible short entry as well.

That all said, there is pivot support at 7477 also, and the bulls may well defend this area, at least initially. A speculative long here might be worth a go as well.

Usual Friday caveat applies though, and coupled with Option Expiry at 10:10 stay nimble!

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36 Comments

  1. Morning all. Closed my long hedges on ftse and am fully short on ftse and dow. I expect a dip back to the 7250 area from these levels.

  2. No markets would tempt me in now. Needed to see FTSE charge through 7500 without looking back to stay in. That said, if if closes above 7500 today there could be a quick couple of hindred points upside. Sitting back for now and hoping to see initial drop to 7300 FTSE and 12300 DAX where a bounce would get me long again.

    1. If we go all the way back to 7300 then 7100-7200 is likely the next stop. Obviously bounces along the way in the meantime

      1. Agree – Anstel if you’ve learnt your lesson you’d be out of longs below 7470. Remember it’s not about being right, it’s about managing risk and reward… no point in keeping gambling long when you can just find attractive set ups and make points

          1. Lol.. I’m not having a go at him but if you’re not trading a risk reward set up you’re not trading at all, just gambling. Any strategy that involves a need for the market to go up or down will fail eventually. Who knows when this bull market will end but if you’re just long and hold with leverage then you’re going to get wiped out when it does

            1. He is an investor, that’s how I see it. It doesn’t matter if it goes up or down, he likes to hold it cos he more actively hedges around it, it gives him satisfaction.

      2. I did for a bit, lol. I didn’t even plan to trade today just watch, but seeing the opportunity going hands were on trigger again.

  7. Well, short 12342 has been completed not how I expected it (till 12300) but that’s what they give you. I knew they won’t give much cos it’s me in the trade haha, but maybe because many people went short after the drop. More banked today and I am going for weekend. Fulfilled my ego today to win something at least. Ambitions are always bigger than reality. GL all.

      1. I think dax could head up now. Don’t watch it close enough but from a quick glance it feels like it wants to go up first. Stay out of you don’t want to trade and enjoy the weekend

      2. I wish I took that short. My system was offering that, but obviously thought it was going to go long. I didn’t witness the fall just saw it.

    3. Dax is probably the hardest index to trade, it doesn’t seem to pivot anywhere near as well as the FTSE or US markets

      1. I know. Sometimes it does, but when it doesn’t I know it’s one of those days when big moves may happen.

    2. I did a naughty thing, I had long 12217 to 12235, naughty me. I need to shut down this computer. It is against all my rules.

  12. And sell the fact…? It’s balmy to ever be long in my opinion. What is possibly going on in the world/economy for markets to be hitting all time highs?! Failing economy, rising rates leading to lower consumer spending and debt not being repaid=recession, Trump, oh and world war 3 with North Korea.

    1. Just thought I’d call in,doin good thanks,been enjoying a break tday….to be honest I’d had enough,exited Ftse trades so Im all out of Ftse…..was holding overnight for options expiry, didn’t nail the very top at 515 but not done to badly :0) not been relaxing this last 5 weeks but I’ve ended up with a nice profit..:0) think its time I enjoyed a few more days break good luck all…. Just need the summer to come back :0)

  15. Decided to take some profits on Dow and ftse shorts. Will readd on Monday. Running rest of shorts on both.

    Have a good weekend all.

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