Can the bulls push past 7420 today? 7450 still resistance

19th July 2017

Inflation came in at 2.6% for June, slightly bettering the 2.9% that was forecast. The market started rising about half an hour before the scheduled news (suspicious!) from the 7357 level where we had our fib line for support. After printing that low, the FTSE 100 stayed relatively upbeat, though the short managed a few points from 7404 to 7385.

Overnight, strength has returned with Asia advancing back towards its record highs. We have the ECB meeting tomorrow with the general consensus being they will keep everything as is. Meanwhile, the chance of the Fed raising rates before year end has dropped to 40%.

Concerns about the U.S. administration’s ability to enact fiscal stimulus after a crucial health-care bill was scuppered, as well as weak inflation data, left investors questioning the strength of the global economy, sending Treasuries, bunds and gilts higher. The dollar held at the lowest level in almost a year.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Channels

For today I am expecting us to remain bullish and build on the overnight strength. We may well get an initial dip down but with support at XXXX and XXXX I am thinking that this area will hold for a push towards the top of the 10 day Bianca at 7453. Above this then the daily Raffs are showing resistance 7474 and 7500 – levels that are not out of the question this week.

The 30min chart is bullish to start with, mainly helped by Eastern markets rising. The ASX200 had a decent rise today as well. The Dax was a bit spooked yesterday, dropping sharply but largely remained self contained as most other markets remained resilient to that sell off.

If the bears were to break below the pivot today at 7392, then XXXX is next support, with XXXX below that. If the bulls cannot make this move stick today though, then they are going to be on the back foot – so make or break for them today. The pound continues to strengthen (and dollar weaken) with cable remaining above 130 still, in theory if that rises further it will put pressure on the FTSE 100, however it has held up well so far.

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41 Comments

    2. It is 62% on Dax, but still have my doubts so I am cautiously on half stake. When it gets above 12450 I can add then.

  4. Jack. The Dax bulls will be back very soon. Euro falling against Dollar although from a high Base. Good time to put a long on.

    1. I may add if it progresses. Thanks, it may do so. I’m just following my indicators, however it did look bearish first thing in the morning.

  6. Feels like the calm before the storm. Very choppy and corrective action so at the moment it looks like lower highs in the 7420-7440 area. Until we get above there then the expectation is that we sell off eventually

    1. Nobody, of course, knows where the price is going, but until we release Anstel from his long I don’t think it will go down any sooner. 🙂

      1. I think if it gets to his breakeven it’s going to go higher anyway and he’ll make some nice profits. But still think he’s going to have to stomach 7100-7200 area beforehand

  7. Hi Jack ,Mcg, I missed the short hedge today this morning from 15 area,I watched it go up steadily overnight and thought it would go higher today,wrong call so not closed out anything today,closed out my full weeks finance already this week so just looking to maybe try another short hedge possible around 450 if it ever gets there….the novelty is starting to wear off now to be honest…..

    1. Trouble is when your in this situation you can’t take your eye off the ball its full time chained to the screen ….when you are flat it’s great you can go out and take a few days break if you want too before trading your next position….

      2. I know how it feels, I told my son that your trip to the shop cost me today b/e, it just touched my b/e, it didn’t go a little fraction lower and went back up again. If I watched it, I would definitely have opened the b/e, but when you go out you want to be safe anyway so I set it, I don’t regret it as I didn’t lose anything. For you it’s been at least 2 weeks or even more, I don’t know how you bear it. I’ve been there before, it’s not nice.

        1. Hi Jack,it’s not nice your right,but sometimes I have found that if you believe in your position it’s worth the pressure of holding….it’s all too easy to get unsettled and start exiting your positions at a loss to relieve the pressure of holding when it goes against you…sometimes I think we have to fight hard and not give up too easily…..the annoying thing was I shorted the market at 552 but changed my mind….never mind it’s been good practising the short hedge strategy which has so far given me good gains but I will only get the benefit of those when this long turns blue……I think it’s going the right way and could possible accelerate upwards soon with a bit of luck….

          1. Would say that this is the first chance bulls have had to breakout higher in nearly a month. Still needs to break 7440-50 area and then 7480-90 to become bullish, but there are positive signs in that we’ve closed close to the level and we’re holding around there after hours. Main caveat is that the S&P500 is overbought so there might be a pullback, and bull want to hold the 7400 area to push on. I’ve unloaded half of my remaining shorts at 7427 and will see how the range plays out tomorrow

          2. Anstel, I don’t know how big (stake) your initial long position right now is and it may have a chance to reach 7480 level but… when it gets there do you have a plan to close it or would you endure a pull back which who knows where it will go? We cannot control price. If it gets to b/e and you close, all your previous winnings will become valid and you can start all over again. What I find nervewrecking is holding a position which I know was a wrong position to start with. Close it and reopen a new one if you’re still long biased. At least it will give you a new start in the new trade, lower stake, new stop loss etc.

            1. Hi Jack the size is a consideration for sure,it’s early days this lot can do anything? It’s slowly gaining ground and settling slightly higher but we will have to see I can’t really make a decision on closing until ive seen the price action up to and surrounding my break even price ….it’s just a waiting game at the moment…..however if it gets bullish it could be a profitable move to maintain the position,after all I still think 7600 will be seen shortly.alternatively close and re-enter at a smaller size…….its a work in progress lets see how we go…..good luck all…

            2. I understand your position, you’ve waited so far so of course you want to see the reaction of price at those levels. GL and hope you’ll make the right decisions. Looking at 2 hour chart it does position for the upside as long as the sloping trend line breaks. But MACD turned positive, that is a good sign.

    1. It’s hear somewhere I’m pretty sure….but so many failed attempts gets a bit demoralising…..Its only going to need a sell off from cable and a strong Dow to propel it upwards…..just a waiting game,I can wait I’m pretty patient…..

  12. Right, I closed at 12471.2 before school run at 3.27 all the remaining lot and getting it to the bank now. Wow. That was a great trade. Banking it, it will bring my account to 50% free.

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