FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 29th July 2021
The Fed has said it will keep rates unchanged and maintain easy money policies until “further progress” is achieves. The central bank kept the target range for its benchmark policy rate unchanged at zero to 0.25pc. It also adjusted language to say that it had pledged in December to continue asset purchases at a $120bn monthly pace until “substantial further progress” had been made on employment and inflation.
No real surprises from the Fed last night so the ball is with the bulls at the moment to push higher off the back of that. The S&P500 has continued to defend the 30m 200ema and that is at 4392 again today to start with. We may well get a small overshoot to S1 at 4386 but if the bulls pull it out the bag we could see a decent bounce from this level. That may well tally with the FTSE100 defending the 6986 S1 level, and just below the 30m 200ema at 7003.
If the bulls do defend to start with today then we should see a rise to the daily 25ema resistance at 7038. We have failed just shy of this a few times so far but a test (and possibly an overshoot as reflected in the order level) and then a dip back down would fit in well. The bulls will of course be keen to defend the 7000 level and a decent rise on the S&P would help their case.
Above 7038 then R2 coincides with the key fib at 7054 and should we see this then a short here looks to be worth a go. I do think that if we get a dip back then it may well get bought back up. The 2 hour charts remain bearish on all my traded markets but we could see a break higher as we have had the first reactions already since they went bearish. 7021 is FTSE resistance on that to start with so the bulls will be looking to break through their first thing this morning.
Above the 7055 level then R3 at 7085 and ultimately the daily coral at 7132 are the next key levels for the next couple of sessions.
For the bears, they will be looking to break that 6986 level initially then a test of the key fib at 6961 and S2 at 6955 is next up. The bulls have certainly pushed them back since their moment in the sun on Tuesday when the price dropped down to that 6930 support level. With S3 there at 6934 for today any dip to that level may well set up a decent double bottom bounce.
I am expecting the bulls to stay in control though today. Good luck today.
Asian stocks jumped Thursday on China’s efforts to soothe market nerves and the Federal Reserve’s reassurance that it’s moving very gradually toward tapering stimulus if the U.S. makes more economic progress.
Hong Kong and China outperformed, paring steep losses this week sparked by Beijing’s crackdown on private enterprises. A Hang Seng tech index surged on a report that China will continue to allow local firms to go public in the U.S. S&P 500 futures edged back and Nasdaq 100 contracts dipped after Facebook Inc. fell in extended trading on a cautious outlook. European futures slipped.
China’s selloff is easing after authorities took steps to reassure investors, including articles in state-run media suggesting the rout went too far. The central bank boosted cash injections into the financial system to ease anxiety.
Treasury yields were steady and the dollar inched down in the wake of the Fed meeting. Officials discussed how to go about scaling back bond buying when the time comes, but no decision on timing has been made. Chair Jerome Powell said there was still some way to go to meet the conditions for tapering.
The Fed reiterated that a recent surge in inflation is likely transitory and linked to the economic reopening from the pandemic. The central bank’s $120 billion in monthly bond purchases, along with robust corporate earnings, have supported market sentiment. Risks remain from the spread of the delta variant of Covid-19 and China’s efforts to rein in its largest companies. [Bloomberg]
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