Massive bear trap or 7400 breaking and down to 7250

28th June 2017

The picture is still bearish overall with the resistance at 7480 with the daily channels, and the 7460 area with the daily moving average. The slide from the 7465 area is still going, so if the bears can break 7400 and then 7380 we could be on for that slide lower. The 2 hour chart has resistance at 7427 and 7433 now. But, we had a bullish ASX200 today. There is also a 2.26 dividend to be applied to the FTSE 100 today.

Another day, another ransomware attack on going. This one looks like it started in Ukraine but has spread rapidly again. Ransomware now seems to be the method of choice for the criminals these days rather than stealing the data itself.

In Asia, a selloff in technology stocks extended into the Asian trading session, while bank shares rallied with government bond yields on the prospect of higher interest rates.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction Daily Channels
FTSE 100 Prediction Daily Channels

I think we may well see a break of 7400 today, which would lead to a quick drop to the key support area at 7380. If that breaks then the bears are going to gain a fair bit of momentum and we could be heading down to 7300 or lower. The bottom of the 10 day Bianca is 7381 today and with the 20 day just below that then the bulls will have a reason to hold this support, even if the non technical backdrop is pretty dire at the moment.

The powers that be are still concerned (and rightly so) about the amount of debt and over leverage that exists out in the general population, but that’s what happens when you make it cheap to borrow – people go for it!

We have a small dividend of 2.26 later which probably wont excite the divi hunters too much.

Want more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P? Then please join our active members community.

What you get

  • Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
  • Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
  • WhatsApp and webinars group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

108 Comments

  1. Members and I went long 7381 this morning. Nice bounce happening now so maybe that dip was a massive bear trap after all. Stop now at 7399.

  2. My last short hedge was for last night so I could relax…..shorted at 7410 exited this morning just above the support area at 7381…for plus 29….. Still obviously down on the long but I’ve closed out a lot of profit hedging against it……it’s not for the faint hearted though I must be honest…:0o

  3. Well in the interests of transparency and I know it’s not conventional wisdom but I added to my long at 4314 with a hard stop at 7394 and risked a small amount of the profit from my short hedges…..time will tell…

        1. Now these new additions are protected from a sell off I have added another small long with a 15 point stop..next step to try and get a stop behind it at profit …again only risking a small portion of my gains from my short hedges but my break even is coming down nicely…

  4. Closed my dax long for some profit – not a lot!

    Now I have no trades and it feels very calm in my world!!!

    Think I may short FTSE, but fear it will rise short term. May add low and add in every 20pts.

    The down side is a clear signal that times of a bull market are changing. Although it retraced it’s a signal of in my opinion.

  5. This market is so frustrating! That was some rally. Got taken out of my overnight short at 7412 for +7. I’ve now trailed my stop on my 7545 and 7464 entries down to 7455 above yesterday’s high. There were basically two bouts of short covering there, 7394 to 7420 and then 7422 to 7447. However, there’s a good chance these are fully retraced in the context of the wider downtrend. Really needs a clean break of that 7380-7400 support area to get going but proving elusive so far

    1. Similar moves to this were seen in the 6930-7000 range in October. Some pretty rapid rallies to the top of the range before selling off again with the eventual break being to the downside

    2. Oil maybe the catalyst…I see a glut and fall coming. We may get out drop tonight or tomorrow. Dollar is weakening too all favourable to a fall.

    1. Will move stop on latest small long up if we break through and above the double top on Ftse 5 min…

  6. When you look at the FTSE 3hr it has had 3 real good goes at going below 7380 and all rejected since 17th may. No you can read into that either way.

    Anstel, you said a few weeks ago that your logic for a rise in cable was cable going to 12200 or so but it has risen to pre election levels. How does this affect your plan. I am not trying to be cute but trust your judgement and am worried I’m short bias and your long.

    Ps glad your enjoying the roller coaster.

      1. Here’s what I think,I’m not saying it’s right or wrong and mcp seems to be the man who is most experienced but my take on it is this is a way to get Ftse 7600 or higher…….ftse 7435….. Cable 1.2822…. Dow 21358…Dax 12609…… My thinking is this Dow has dropped about 160-170 from the high …Dax off about 300 …..cable I think is due a drop and dow Dax could rally and push Ftse up…..then we have oil it’s not high….can you see what I mean….the Ftse could go up…..and now everyone’s thinking its knackered it probably will…..who’s knows though?

        1. It’s good to have a range of opinions… oil is the one I’m not sure on shorter term. Long term I think it’s pretty screwed but you never know when the next big rally will be as it can swing with OPEC talk, so certainly possible it could rally a fair amount and that would help FTSE. Must admit I’m getting frustrated with the shorts, not seen anything to make me change my mind just yet but I don’t like how long it’s taking to get the break lower

        2. Anstel, its as good a plan as any. All my calls have been shocking this week so your probably right.

    1. Check out the weekly chart of GBPUSD.. it basically had months of consolidation between 1.20-1.26 after the flash crash in October. This was followed by a bullish breakout above 1.26 to 1.30, then we just retested the breakout on the election. Now it appears to be breaking the down channel of the last few weeks to the upside.. so all in all it looks bullish technically. Would imagine that there would need to be a spanner in the works with the Brexit deal for it to get back down to 1.20 now

      1. I’ve posted this many times before Mcg but the charts only really give an indication of where the market has been…..it’s not a definite indication of where it’s going…..it’s the steam coming out of the funnel of a steam ship…..to find out where it’s going you have to ask the captain…

        1. True, depends if you believe in technical analysis I guess. Without it I’d be completely rudderless and struggle to find the inflection points with which to make trades. Generally if a market won’t go down when it should then it’s probably going to go up – a lot of people were pessimistic on sterling over the fear of Brexit rather than the reality of it so if shorts can’t break it lower then it probably goes higher. Same applies to FTSE… whilst I’m bearish I really want to see it sell off this afternoon now as it needs to retrace this rally. Above 7450 and I’m seriously doubting where it’s headed hence I will exit

  7. Going to try a straddle on oil. Will set sell order 15pts below price a few seconds before oil news.

    Done it before with success. ,

    #whipsawcrashandburn

    1. Added another 2nd small long at 24 ….25point hard stop…. And stop lowered on highest new long ….that was close to taking out my 17.4s they might get hit yet…

  8. Anstel have you read ‘reminisces of a stock operator’? Great book about Jesse Livermore who’s probably the best trader of all time.. definitely helped me understand why the market moves as it does

    1. No I don’t fancy topping myself and I don’t need any new ideas cheers..:0) it’s only money…health is true riches :0)

      1. What a shame that a man could make and lose so much and then lose his life the only really important thing we all have…

        1. My previous but one comment sounded Arrogant,,it wasn’t meant to be ,,,,obviously I need knew ideas and ways of doing things but I don’t want the idea of ending it all included! :0)

          1. Yeah think he kind of lost his sense of purpose in the end.. but the book is written well before that and before the Wall Street crash when he made his most famous trades

            1. I think I will get the book at some point….I’m always looking for new information about trading…..thanks for reminding me about it….:0)

              1. That should be “new ideas” concentrating on the market and not what I’m typing….

  9. The way I see the market is its a lot of people acting a bit like penguins…..when one jumps off the iceberg they all do :0) but the iceberg hasn’t melted yet…:0)

    1. First 5-10 mins will be erratic, it will then go one way and reverse at about 2:50?

      Basically it’s a lotto as Carney is talking too at 2:30, and FED Kuroda

  10. Now or never now for me.. lower lows, lower highs, Sterling breaking out and lots of momentum.. either breaks 7380 on the close or I’m out of shorts

      1. This is mainly a sterling move.. but we’re finally attacking 7380 with momentum so want to see it get below by the close. S&P backtested 2431 so US could sell off too later

    1. Lol just look after yourself here mate, could get a bit messy for a while if this goes

  11. If only I had held those FTSE shorts – de-risked the position on the way down to neutralise losses – thats life.

    Short cable at 950 – i think that will be a keeper

    1. Lost my composure a little bit there but I can recover that small loss when the ball is in my court again…:0)

    1. Put my stop on my 7464 to 7400.. it either goes now or I want to sit out for a bit.. really annoying me!

      1. You wil be stopped out in no time. 400 is a magnetic number.
        Have patience, you have done well thus far. Just stick to it

        1. Changed my mind.. come this far so might as well see it through. I’m still confident in the technicals but just getting bored of the bounces as once there’s a true break of 7380 it should be a pretty impressive drop

          1. Hey Mcg the number of times I’ve had a good profit on and it’s got away from me I can’t tell you….The thief in the night is always around to spoil your day….just a thought if you have blue…

            1. You know what.. I don’t usually swing trade I usually stick to day to day. This is only my fourth swing trade in the last year and all of the other 3 gave big profits (2 bullish, 1 bearish). If I was day trading I’d be buying support until it breaks so every hit of 7400 and 7380 I would be buying. However, with the swing trade I kind of don’t want to get forced out of my position so I tend to hold into it. Ok the first few times where i expected a bounce I covered but since then I’ve been holding. I’m still confident in the move so if I manage it properly this should give a great return once 7380 goes.. but it’s the number of hits I’m struggling with, it must be about 10 now and it’s mentally tiring. Each hit usually weakens the support so a break probably isn’t too far away but until it comes it’s just difficult

      1. Just added a really tight stop on the 02 long at 03.5 might get taken out but if not could be useful later…

  12. I sold my FTSE shorts and decent cash.

    Short on Dow at 21423 So under a bit of pressure now.

  13. Anyone holding Dow shorts should be patient. Whipsaws ahead. But the net direction is down

      1. Icarus is right, this thing will go down it’s just a matter of patience.

        I’m also 40pp on S&P short so I am confident it will hence my stake

      2. Where else do you think it can head with such strong divergences. Plus Dow is my fav market and I tend to read it better than any other market. Whipsaws so that the shorts can be taken out before it heads down

  14. Ok got another small long in place fully protected with a tight stop in profit….might get taken out like the last attempt but if not could be handy at the other end…it’s pretty tight though….

      1. Don’t think I’m going to try again tday…..the market keeps sayin “No your not havin it ” :0)

  15. The trick is not to get wiped out before the big move.
    Added to ftse and dow shorts just now

  16. I like the S&P…it’s like a sloth following a monkey – the Dow,

    Slow and steady, less flitty

  17. If I wasn’t all in on the US markets I would be shorting dax. That’s hit a ceiling!

  18. Good day today with the technicals working well despite Carney trying to mess it up! Long at 7381 and short at 7439 🙂

  19. Hey Jack, I really don’t follow fax much but simply from a technical point of view I see all indices aligned. So it will see 13k before sell off I reckon

Comments are closed.