Short the rallies still | Carney changes tack | Bulls defend 7380

29th June 2017

What a day that was with the long tagging perfectly at 7381, and then a rise all the way up to our shorting level at 7439 – should have been greedier with that though and it was surprising that the FTSE fell away as the US was rising strongly. Good move bailing on the S&P short at breakeven in the end.

The FTSE fall was driven by Carney changing his stance from just a week ago and is now talking about rate rises. Say what you’re told to say by the look of it – seems quite a U turn in a week! “Some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary if the trade-off facing the MPC continues to lessen and the policy decision accordingly becomes more conventional,” Carney said.

Asian stocks followed a rebound in the U.S. as investors bet the global economy can withstand tighter financial conditions as growth picks up. The euro rose to the highest level in a year while oil continued to climb.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction Daily Channels
FTSE 100 Prediction Daily Channels

For today I am looking at initial resistance at the XXXX area. If this holds as resistance then we may well get a drop down to the 30min coral line at XXXX. The bulls will be bouyed by the fact that they kept it above 7380 yesterday, and also the psychological 7400 level as well. As such they will be keen to build on that. If they break XXXX then a rise to XXXX looks viable, and also a key fib level at XXXX. A short here is worth a go.

Below the 7380 support level I am watching XXXX – which is an area that IG spiked the price down too the other week as the computers had a bit of a fit. These ghost spikes often come to pass so its worth noting the levels when you see one.

I am still feeling bearish though and shorting the rallies still feels like the best play.

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73 Comments

      1. I am in the red on Dow here and on Dax, just closed 40 points on Dax to add to oppose the losses later (opened it yesterday 12698). I really hope it will go lower so I can reduce my stake further before I can add up again, if shorts resume.

  3. Really annoyed!!!!

    Was in a meeting and missed my FTSE and Dow entry points.

    In now, guess a few points won’t hurt!

  6. On what Jack, the Dax?

    I see it going a lot lower, FTSE and Dow to fall, this I would think will drag dax lower?

    I could be wrong?

    1. Only joking. I still hold Dow short, closed Dax losses completely, tried little longs for retrace: slightly lost, only from 12594 got me 14 points but losses of previous attempts didn’t cover just, but never mind, it’s less than I held overnight. I want retrace so maybe that’s why I tried. Dow remaining short is still -50 1pp, so I can breathe.

    3. All indices will open with the spike, Dax with spike only then, catch it if you can, now it will be doing it’s usual “laying down” thing. It will depend how high the spike goes to avoid another bull trap. But I favor shorts today.

    1. There’s more to life than watching this ……. While it’s raining though I suppose its alright….losing the will to live though !!!!!! I need a few days off soon.

    2. Just keep selling the rallies until 7450 breaks.. also keep buying the dips to 7380-7400 until 7380 breaks. Obviously I expect the break to be down and not sure how much longer it will hold.. but anybody doing that for the last week has made a killing

      1. I’ve done quite a bit of that already but I need a break,stayed up last night because I thought it would rally overnight….it did it first thing typical…can’t trade very well when I’m tired :0( grrrrrrrrr….good luck all.

        1. Oh and I managed to keep one of my extra longs that escaped getting stopped out last night…..guess what it got me this morning grrrrrrr at 1 point profit…..it’s not daft this Ftse lol :0)

  9. Sterling coiling for a break of $1.30 now, obviously a psychological resistance level and where the previous rally stopped so above there in time it could get to $1.35. US markets also approaching their inflection points so a good chance they reverse. So pointing to a break of 7380 sooner rather than later

    1. Could be the last push before US open. However I worry it may trap shorters again like yesterday. Hope not.

    2. Yeah, chose the wrong market. Like one trader, why do you bet on a weak horse. Well, at least got my money back, still losing a bit, but.

    4. Well, after 2 days I finished losing 50 quid from the start of the week, this is the result of my trading. 0 trades now held. I got rid of the last at 21416 b/e, better luck next time. Maybe next week I will get profits. Today I am happy I didn’t lose 350 quid which I held overnight. This proves one more time to me that nobody can win on a losing trade. If it traps you it traps you, it may go miles before it comes back. I had to wait 80 points on Dow and 160 points on Dax for it to come back. Isn’t that pressure? My 2pp short on Dax was 12575, I know it should be in profit now, but it’s not, cos I got out of it. Missed the show because of that mouth trap yesterday. Markets are not stupid.

    5. It’s not that I couldn’t have held, it’s the will power gone, got frustrated and sad, just not bothered to hold, that’s was the reason I got out, I just had had enough of them mocking me.

      1. Will power is 90% of this game Jack……you have to harden up or it will eat you alive….good luck mate…..it’s very hard…….think like the market and not like a trader….we can’t control the market but we can control how we react to it……..look at yourself,you will see the emotional factors that are the problem…..then remember E =MC2….. Emotions are equal to money in account x no of contracts ……either control emotions better? Or reduce Size……or save up a bigger pot…..or do all three and practice……but then again I’ve got nice red numbers to keep me company….so maybe I could use some of your fear based emotions dunno …good luck anyway…..:0) mind you the way I’m going I will make more trading around this position than the position is losing….if it goes up it will be like xmas :0)

      2. Keep your chin up mate, it’s been a complete pain to trade the last few weeks.. always the case near tops. You’re doing the right things with risk management so you’ll get there.. sometimes it takes a few small losses on the spin before you catch a big one

        1. Yes it’s been hard, at least I learned how to cope with it now. See my reply to anstel below. Thank you for advice on the weakening market, it really helped here.

  13. Heavy long on dax at 440 for the full retrace.

    Closed shorts too early could have made sooooo much more!

  14. Holy Shit……I think I’ve wornout my short button and my hedge button…made quite a lot of money there…took eleven trades lost 2 won 9……im Makin quite a bit around the position …..but the position is not the best… Well it’s knackered to be honest :0) ….concentrating catch you later :0) Rock on :0)

      1. Boll*cks to it…..ive been in tighter spots…..lets get down and dirty…I’m enjoying this…..sooner or later it will rally…..

        1. Anstel.. you need to stop going long mate unless it’s oversold or at a pivot point.. we’ve just smashed a major support level that’s taken weeks to break down.. we aren’t seeing 7500s again for probably a couple of months. Just try and stay in the game until then and don’t be surprised if it tests the major support near 7100

          1. And for info.. the pivots are 7340, 7300-7310, 7250, 7190, 7130, 7090-7100… I’m looking to cash shorts tomorrow near 7300, then see if it rallies (which are for selling)

            1. Hi buddy today ive just been hedging short ….it was really frantic at one point….on a positive note I’m really happy how I traded that volatile period when 80 broke…..I closed out £858 in closed profits….ive made I don’t know about 3k trading around this position so far but what I’m really happy about is how I’m starting to react to instant market moves….when I started I got the rabbit in the headlight thing where I just held or closed….now I’m happy to dance around the underlying mistake position in a totally flexible way…..if I trade against it all the time it’s got the advantage of reducing further risk…..but yeah I was wrong in the first place….so far…so to summarise,I made a balls of the initial trade…..but it’s given me the practice trading around a loser under pressure,and I’m happy with my performance on that front….see how we go……good luck and well done Mcg you nailed it :0)

              1. I Rmember feb 2016… It was all selling off…badly,then out of the blue it rallied on some alleged Twitter remark about oil cuts…..ive no idea where this is going to be honest….

                1. Lol.. there’s so many differences between now and then.. we’d fallen 23% in 9 months then, so far we’re down 3% and the US is down 1.5%.. it was oversold on the daily and weekly charts with a positive divergence.. so technically it was set up to rally, then the news flow was just an excuse.. this time around it’s set up to sell (and the news will just be an excuse too). I’m open minded as to whether the bull market is over or not.. but that’s a question for another day, all I need to know is this is going lower then we will rally.. if we go down to 7100s then back to 7400s I will be very interested in how things are set up both in terms of the moving averages and economic data

                  1. What I meant was ,simply, the market can do anything at anytime….we just go along for the ride really…. Well I’ve been hedging short like a man on a mission .closed them now see if it can go up a bit before another onslaught…. Anyone that says this is easy money hasn’t tried it!!

  17. Strange Day – Dax falling off a cliff – unfortunately I closed shorts on the mid morning bounce…..and just when I thought FTSE would follow this afternoon, it managed the retrace scuppering my loaded shorts. Lots of trading and big red numbers at times but small profit in the end – should have been a huge one though.

    Question now for FTSE is 7340 the new floor?

  20. anstel (reply from above), you know I gave up again. I did start with a strong will to do it and hold it on the basis “Why do I bother now if I was losing before big, now I am losing less and less so just hold”. And I did well holding up to -160 points Dax, -80 Dow, but I did reduce stakes at expense of scalps from 7pp to overall 3pp. But in the end… old habits, the desire to start all over again, cos I entered not in the nice set up – my mind was messed up, plus I was a bit unwell. Although, I’d say this time I had a better night than other nights I’ve ever held with positions. I managed to switch my brain off it in the evening and I only remembered about the positions at 7am literally, I startled.
    I agree I need to harden up a bit, cos I got it to extreme this time: reduced my positions to practical minimum after saving, then I had nothing to hold. 🙂 But this is my defense mechanism cos I got used to losing, so that’s what I did.
    By the way, when you said you can use my fear emotion to defend your position eg. reduce the stake, you are right, use it in moderation, play with it, manage it: reduce, increase, keep it stable. What I needed to do, after I reduced it all, I needed to add, but I got scared.
    And also you said you are making more trading around the position, I know what you mean. That’s exactly what I was doing, I think holding the negative position actually alerts you more to fight, exposes your emotions better, your intuition works better and faster cos you are under pressure to survive. That’s why you possibly like to hold on to the wrong position, cos it is more interesting in some way. I did it this time and I noticed that my trading activity was increased and my bravery to enter positions was better than when I just sit and wait for a good opportunity. It’s like trying to nurse that baby and run around it with some errands and when the baby goes up (for you), you are great in the end cos you can finally show your profits for it.

    1. Well Jack,I’m tired out here,I can’t keep it up that’s the problem,I’m on 120% high alert…trying to ride the fine line between hedging and taking profit,and not getting stuck in a hedged position and locking the loss in……ive got locked in before last year and it’s game over really……I used today’s profits to move part of my position.i sold it at a loss and put it back unfortunately 8 points higher……I lost my composure slightly I’m afraid,anyway I’m going to try and get a stop behind it ….if it goes up my break even is lower and if I’m lucky enough to get a stop behind it in profit well then that’s reduced further downside risk…..I’m really working hard at this,good luck buddy…

    2. GL to you too. I see what the pressure you are in. Hope you will manage to make the most of the weekend and get back with fresh decisions to make.

  21. Limits filled at 7310 on half my positions.. feels good to have cashed. Bigger picture looking at 7100 for a bottom but it’s not going to go in a straight line

  23. Due to the diminishing risk reward I have closed my positions on ftse.
    Will readd later

  25. Taking its time getting there but reckon 7300-10 today. Should be rangebound between 7300 and 7350

    1. How long have you been trading for Mcg ?…..I know it takes a few years to learn this…

  26. Since 2011.. but only been trading ‘properly’ for about 2 years. The first 4 I was mainly gambling and didn’t have a clue what I was doing. Made quite a bit doing that when it was trending strongly but made a massive loss which wiped me out and made me completely change my approach

    1. Yeah I’ve done the same,started back end of 2013. It seems from my personal experience and from what I read or watch from others no one seems to be succesful eventually without taking heavy losses..Its the hardest thing I have ever attempted from a financial,emotional,and physiological point of view….nothing with this kind of profit potential is going to be easy…..when it bites it can bite hard….on the other hand some of the gains have been big…..like you said the other day … About 4 outcomes….small win,big win,break even,small loss… Makes perfect sense but it’s so hard to achieve….best of luck,

      1. I think you have been where I am now and you recognise the point I’m at in the learning process..thanks for trying to help…

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