Bear Tuesday | Trading help spread betting | 7465 resistance FTSE 100 | 7429 support

27th June 2017

Was a bit of a lacklustre day on the FTSE 100 yesterday though we got the rise and dip as Bull Monday once again delivered for most of the day. The S&P stopped bang on 2450 and dropped sharply on the US news that the Supreme Court in the US ruled allowing the travel ban to be partly reinstated. Gold fell sharply at 9am as a result, apparently, of a fat finger sell order. Though of course it would have taken out a load of stops on a lot of longs too. The Tories and Dup have formed a coalition so May can have a majority government. Only cost a billion pounds and a massive waste of time!

Despite popping up slightly above the 7465 resistance level yesterday to test the 7480 area the FTSE has fallen back and the daily chart moving averages are still bearish – thus we may well be on for a further drift down. Lots of professional fund managers are wary about investing at these lofty levels (here) and also we are heading towards the summer period. However, the end of a month does usually see some buying.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

For today I am looking at resistance at the top of the daily Bianca channels at the 7490 area and support from the 2 hour at 7430. However, I think that there is a strong chance of further weakness and any bounce will be short lived. My preference over the next few sessions is for a drop down to 7300 and possibly lower. The daily chart is still bearish with the 7465 resistance area still in tact as the bulls were not able to make yesterday rise stick.

If the 7429 area breaks today, and it is bear Tuesday after all, then we could have a fairly weak close to the month. I mentioned yesterday that my stance was short the rallies and that is still the case for the time being.

The bottom of the Bianca channels are both at the 7380 level so we may well see a bounce here too, though again, it is likely to be short lived.

Want more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P? Then please join our active members community.

What you get

  • Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
  • Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
  • WhatsApp and webinars group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

43 Comments

  3. I am taking the Dow on – short at 21396

    FTSE short at 38

    Platinum long from 915 yesterday.

  4. Not sure what the Carney affect will be, but it will be something!

    The guessing cable up FTSE down pending QE plans etc

  6. 7400 area is key again today.. not sure how much longer it’s going to hold. Interesting you mention the month end buying Nick, this year there’s been a trend for weakness the last few days of the month. US is on a half day Monday and closed Tuesday for Independence Day so I’m going for a trip down to 7300 by Thursday/Friday then a modest bounce on low volume back to retest 7380-7400 to start July

    1. Any bounce will be small I reckon. Am feeling bearish anyway, 7465 (25ema daily) still resistance and daily chart looking more and more bearish

  9. Not posting much as many conflicting opinions……I will suggest that we had a strong showing from the mining section and with Draghi already spoken just carney left and yellen later some uncertainty will have been removed….

    1. Yday I took +16 short trading around my hedge but hedge is broken now at profit and I’m now long… Good luck all…

    2. You are right, there’s a lot of opinions here and it does confuse your brain after a few days. I am still thinking of your position and it is no good. You had an opportunity to come off this position many times, you insist on holding your position and I just don’t get why. Everyone is telling you it is about to break down, or may do. I just hope you know what you are doing and know how to defend your positions. GL

      1. The problem isn’t the bullish view in itself, it’s the loss of control of the position. None of us can control the market or have perfect foresight so we need to control what we’re doing to react to what the market is doing. The thought process needs to be ‘if the market does x, I do y’ so that it doesn’t actually matter what’s happening we maintain full control over our accounts. There needs to be only 4 possible outcomes: small win, big win, break even or small loss (I.e. Elimate large loss as a possibility). The issue when you run trades offside is it’s tempting to not take the loss and then you find yourself 200, 300, 400 points down or even worse if you’re unlucky. There’s a clear floor here at 7400 which obviously a few of us anticipate breaking down as that’s the way the price action is aligning. If that breaks down then bears are fully in control so its not the sort of conditions you want to be buy and hold

        1. Also, it’s absolutely 100% possible that we hold 7400 and go on to make new highs. Any outcome can happen. It’s just you have to assess the probability of each (which is something we all must do individually) and trade the higher probability ones. Personally to me a break of 7380 before a break of 7550 is a high conviction trade where I’d be surprised if it didn’t materialise

          1. If it drops Im just hedging it short and banking….no additional risk…I’m not overly concerned ,ive traded around positions many times…..everybody trades differently..

            2. It’s actually a great way to trade in my book ,trading against positions…I suppose everybody has different views but to accurately try and predict the market with all the manipulation is not a realistic view in my opinion……just my thoughts…..good luck all…

      2. Just because everyone is seeing a breakdown in the price Jack doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, it’s 50/50 it might do but then again if everyone thinks it’s goin down I’d rather be on the other side …..

  10. Also worth considering that we have had some modest gains in oil since 7am tday…and looks to me like it could continue………..

  12. Can see ftse up in the 7460 area later before a sell off near the close. Long ftse 7432

  13. The only thing that is certain in this market is manipulation. Plenty going on atm. Gold selling off with indices. Not reacting to news.

  16. I normally operate a simple strategy only on the cac. If at approx 9.30 am it has risen or fallen by 1% I simply trade the opposite direction. Looking each time for approx 20 points and then close for the day. Have done it 14 times in the last 3 months and only once did I have to sit on it overnight to get back to even.

  17. Thanks Argyle, I love those little scenario’s. I quite like buying the Dow 10secs before close – normally goes up 10points as shorts etc are closed – risky and does depend on the movement..,better if a bull day

  18. I’m having a shocker the past few days…loose a lot, make it back…no consistency . It’s all me too. Lost my mojo of late.

    1. Agree George.. needs to be getting closer to support so that when the high volume moves happen on the open or close there’s enough momentum to get through before the oversold rally comes in. Otherwise we end up in limbo. Interesting to see that the commodity giants were going up most of the day following oil yet the market remained down off the mornings highs. Suggests that market breadth is weakening and rallies being led by fewer stocks

  24. S&P500 broke major support around 2431, Dow just tested Friday’s low and dax breaking down. Looking good for a trending day tomorrow now, looking for FTSE to hold in the low 7400s overnight to give a chance of a hard break on the open

  25. Added to shorts again at 7412.. stop at 7425, go no interest in holding it unless we break 7400 immediately tomorrow morning. Move looks on after that US close. Sterling is breaking out of its recent consolidation now too so expecting that to head into the $1.30s soon given the successful retest of the $1.26 breakout area so that should also weigh on FTSE

Comments are closed.