FTSE 100 Analysis for today | 7250 support | Trading help

15th September 2017
Well the BoE put the cat amongst the pigeons without really actually doing anything, as the FTSE 100 tumbled to 7300 after news that they were leaving everything unchanged. They voted 7-2 again to leave rates as they are, but did elude to a rate rise in November which is probably what spooked the market. With cable rising to the 134 level the FTSE had a lot of downward pressure and finally dipped below the 7300 support we have had for a while.

Overnight we have news that North Korea has fired another missile over Japan, much to their ire I expect. The market has largely shrugged it off so far.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 daily channels support and resistance
FTSE 100 daily channels support and resistance

For today I have a cluster of supports around the 7250 level and it will be interesting to see if this area holds on any dip. The FTSE 100 is the only market really falling at the moment (currency led most likely) as the SP is still at 2494, the Dax back above 12500 and yet the FTSE looks weak. It’s either leading the pack or just having a wobble which may well be short lived. If 7250 breaks then I expect we are on the way to XXXX though, and the wobble won’t be short lived!

If the bears can break 7250 though, then XXXX are in view and also likely. The FTSE is pretty spooked at the moment, but with us at the bottom of the Raffs we might well see some support. September is usually a weak month anyway so it is following the usual course of events.

We also have option expiry today so expect some chop at 10:10 this morning, till 10:20. The market will spike a bit and it is possible to short or long the spike to gain a few points if you are feeling nimble.

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69 Comments

  1. Bought 7265.. switching short after opex. Last nights trade plan was invalidated when we dropped through 7290 on the missile launch

  2. 🙂 anstel. Jut saw your post from yesterday

    Finally closed ftse shorts and added longs on ftse.
    Short on dow

  3. Carney once again talked up the GBP yesterday as the solution to his inflation problem and the market bought it. He will no more raise rates than Kim will raise a nuke against a foreign state.
    He enjoys life too much to guarantee his own destruction. Kim that is, not Carney.
    Anyway candlemaster chose to ignore the failed hammer on the daily chart from Wednesday and was duly punished for lacking discipline and breaking his own trading rules. Lesson learned.
    FTSE is in an area of buying interest but I wont be jumping in today, holding the mighty pound for a true buy signal on the daily, which may well be early next week.

    1. It’s pretty clear they want to reverse last years rate cut, it was a silly thing to do in the first place given nothing had actually happened with Brexit at that stage. So expect them to look to do one raise. Then probably no others for a long while after that. That being said, if the data comes in weak Sterling will go back down and they won’t be able to justify doing it

  4. Closed 7375 from yesterday at 7265 this morning. Ftse looks oversold on the hourly so small long at current levels 7263 with stop at 7240, expecting 7250 to hold this morning.

    1. Not now…. But I don’t see the Ftse regaining very far without cable dropping…I don’t like this Market…….Dow pumped up….NK situation…..what are we missing…?

  7. GBP USD weekly chart has a gap to fill to 1.38 just sayin…1.3440 was massive resistance a year ago, a point from which collapse ensued…we are ar 1.3440 today…a close above would look bullish for GBP.

    1. Cheers CM….well if cable doesn’t drop I think the Ftse is pretty screwed…There’s no buyers…it could all change in an instant though if the cavalry are called in….

    1. Still got something 222-234, nearly went mad being with £8pp on Dax (bad entry av 12544) but reduced to £3 and added £3 on FTSE. I am increasing slowly after previous profits. Out now with profits.

  11. Why is the Dow not dropping? Seems strange the Dow is rising whilst the Ftse is dropping, this cant continue for long?

  12. Stopped out at 7240, some move in cable-looks like a good Friday to sit out. Another Dove to Hawk on the MPC , like I said brave man to but at these levels.

  14. There’s a spike of some 5 odd points on Dax. To be honest with all that short talk my long activity seem to stall.

  15. Got sell on Dow at 20200, but it will not drop?. Stops put in 22250. If loses at least i got 10pts of Ftse Expiry to cover most of it. Also Ftse long at 7230, stop 7210..

  16. All this has been brought about by a BOE meeting with no changes?…….how can Ftse recover unless cable sells off I’m asking myself…..any ideas out there?

      1. Looking for 7100 area now.. look at the weekly chart, that’s a major break of support so no reason to be long apart from scalps. They made it hard this morning though as the buy set up pre opex failed once 7265 gave way. I’m short from 7250 now, stop at breakeven

    3. I don’t know guys, should I keep it or not, or just take profits. But I had profits today why should I care?

  18. 7217 on FTSE to break, still 7155 there. It may break my 12530 so I will sit, if it jumps to 12557 so that’ll be it, but I’ll hold now.

  19. The weak dollar is driving US markets pivotpoint, opposite of FTSE trade. The FX market is exerting more influence than usual just now, and personally I will probably look for some form of top in GBP USD before going long FTSE again.

      1. You can’t short cable from this type of set up.. it’s melting up and can stay overbought a while. Eventually it will stabilise and drop off a bit, then once a retest rally fails that’s when it can go back down. That means no drop in cable short term so no reason for FTSE to sustain a rally, particularly if the Dow and Dax turn lower which looks possible

          1. I admire your guts trading the Dax…….it’s the most difficult I found………..Ftse is hard enough for me at the moment…..had some success and some failures with the Dax but I understand the personality of the Ftse better I think…

            2. My strategy suits Dax the best, Dow would be great but spread is bigger on my platform. Dax has personality of its own. I kind of feel it too now. It is good for a short term trades as rewards are bigger and average stop is 10 points. Great.
              For FTSE stops 4-6 on average.

      1. I think your right to hold……..where the bounce is from……if it does bounce because nothing is guaranteed…..is the question?

    2. 50 points guys I’m done, had enough, need to go to ASDA and all that. That last trade I will withdraw as it was a present. Good weekend.

  28. I think we have to fill the gap on ftse to 7100 its easy to see on weekly chart. So unless I see a decent hammer or piercing candle on daily will not buy again until we test that. HANW one and all.

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