18th September 2017
We have had a bit of a bounce on the futures following a decent session in Asia, and the absence of North Korea doing anything provocative. Following a couple of arrests over the weekend the UK terror threat has been lowered from critical to severe as well. The sell off on Friday certainly gathered some pace but may well have been slightly overdone, especially as the US markets went on to make record highs with the S&P 500 breaking 2500, and holding above it. Now currently at 2506. The Dow is nearly half way to 24000 as well! It was really the BoE that spooked the FTSE 1100 with rate rise talk, and the possibility of a rise in November. That also sent gold down and cable up, which is now nearly at 136. On the FTSE 100 if the bulls can better the 2 hour resistance at XXXX then the bulls will probably come roaring back.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
If the bulls are quick out the blocks today and can build on this bounce that we are seeing, it will look like 7195 will hold as the low and a rise towards XXXX is viable for today. There is a slight stumbling block of resistance at XXXX that needs to be overcome though on the path to that but if that’s broken then XXXX should be seen. Above that then 7340 is the next area of note and the bulls are back in charge.
Will we get a bull Monday?
If the bears are going to build on their moment in the sun on Friday, then they will need to take the FTSE 100 below 7195, though there is support at 7165 not too far below. If they were able to break this then things remain fairly bleak for the FTSE and we are looking at a drop down to 7100 or lower.
Friday and rate rise rhetoric is last weeks news so the market will be focussed now on what’s coming up. We have record highs on the US markets, gold is dropping down, cable might start to level off at 136, and its still risk on for most indices. The daily chart has resistance XXXX so this bounce might get as far as that if we really start to motor upwards. What happens at that level remains to be seen but for today I am going with a bull Monday play and looking to be long for most of the day.
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Adding to longs this morning based on last weeks low as support. Also hoping last weeks GBP USD high remains resistance. Other world stocks are strong so maybe some value-fishing in FTSE this week. Not brave enough to double up though.
Morning……The Dow never stops……but when it does ?
Still bearish to me whilst under 7285 area. Last week was a major break of support on the weekly and the daily, so don’t expect a significant rally so quickly. 7100 area looks like the place to get long. US markets trending up but are extended. Since March risk reward on them has been negative from this kind of position – you want to buy the dips not the rips
True. The weekly chart has also made lower highs and lower lows…so trend is down. I think we are due a technical bounce to 7300 to test the bears resolve.
Anything up to 7285-7300 area would be a backtest of support turned resistance. Rally looks choppy this morning so not sure it has the strength to get there. In downtrends the bounces often fall short of target – I made that mistake on Friday as was waiting for a retest of 7290-300 to sell and never got there so had to enter half way down
I wonder if Dax will rise from 550. 68% now, or it’s waiting for 530 pivot? In other way I’d rather wait, I was thinking about short and started paper trading it then went out of the room came back and it was down already.
In terms of Sterling, there’s a gap at $1.37ish to act as resistance on the weekly. Next significant data is retail sales on Wednesday. Strong number reinforces rate rise, weak number pushes it back. Usual pattern after a rally like last week is consolidation followed by retest of the high. Can’t see much more upside on this leg. That being said, see it stabilising around current levels
Don’t know, took that long 12539 but really hoped for lower so small stake now. Wanted 30.
I got out at 18 on Friday…..I’m not happy about how far the Dow is extended….if it sells off abruptly I would have thought the negative sentiment would keep the Ftse lower…..On Friday I thought we would bounce back up to the 7250 area at least but no……it does look like the 7100 area as has been mentioned is going to be seen…But as always we have no control so could be totally wrong…..The other way of looking at it is the Ftse is lagging the other indices Dow,SP.Dax and could be due a rally if sterling gets weaker againt USD….I’m really not sure what we are in for next…..
At least you had a good run from 200, I was short all that time on Dax so it’s all relative. The same with Dax, I don’t know if it want to continue up today or breaks the pivot. So I need to be careful.
This is where stops are key to ensure you can tilt risk reward in your favour.. I’ve sold 7250 as we’re seeing some resistance there on the 5 min and the hourly. I’m not expecting it to be a perfect entry, but I am expecting that 7285-300 will hold for now before another down move. So my plan is sell here and stop at 7260, if that gets taken look for the next set up to sell probably closer to that target area. Point is, there’s more than a 20% chance this mornings high will hold to me, so if it goes under 7200 before getting to 7260 then the trade has a positive expected value so should be taken
250, hm, could be taken.
Are you in any trade atm, anstel?
I have another small short on cable
Would like to be long again Ftse but the Dow worries me ,I think it could go lower first…..not like me I know but the Dow is just stupid now….
I’m actually thinking with the German election looming it might be better to do something else and come back next week…
Dow worries me too, it’s been R3 today.
Basically 12534.3 that’s how much they gave me to pivot? That’s a punt for you.
Do you think that Dow will miss the opportunity to go up?
There you are.
Wow, so exciting
Soon it will be all bought.
I was thinking more 22275, but 22290 is R1
Thers nothing above to stop the Dow, so why do I have this compulsion to sell ???!!!!
Because it’s over extended.. tbh though if you’re going to enter a trade then you want it to have the ability to move your way quite quickly. Hit 22350 this morning and retraced 60.. now its retesting the same area so it can be sold here with stop above. When stuff is rallying need to wait for a reaction before entering short
Yes, I got on part of the slide down this morning, i was short overnight.
futures look like they are tired
I just took half, the rest set on certain SL. It annoyed me as it is: Dax, all indices are breaking, Dax is not. I still want to give it a chance to break up but I need to take profits.
Out.