19th September 2017
Slow but steady rise yesterday with the 7235 long making some points, along with the Dax long. The S&P managed to hold above 2500 for the moment, reaching a high of 2508. Most traders are focussed on the central banks and the next stage of the stimulus efforts and what, if any, reductions might take place. Carney’s speech yesterday was again mooting the idea of further rate rises here, possibly even two. The Fed’s two day meeting starts today, and again traders will be looking for clues on future rate/stimulus direction. Forcing Carney’s hand is the fact that inflation is running hot in the UK, near 3%, which might necessitate a rate rise to counter that. Counter to that is the fact that the economy is still sluggish!
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
I have gone for an initial rise with the plan today, testing the 7298 resistance level, but this is dependant on the bulls being able to break above the 7267 resistance level. We have dropped off that overnight, but there is decent looking support to start with on the 30min chart at the pivot area around 7250. Below this the 2 hour chart has now gone bullish again, and is showing support at the 7226 level – a dip to this area might well see some buyers and is worth a long.
If the bulls can break the 7298 resistance area then 7322 is the next level of note, with 7365 above that where we have the top of the daily channels.
For the moment it looks like 7195 is going to hold as the low, however, should the bears break this level then 7165 for the bottom of the 10 day Raff, and then 7100 are the targets for the bears.
So, watching for an early rise to 7298, but mindful of 7267 resistance and then a bit of a dip down to the 7225 level as its bear Tuesday after all! This week is all about the Fed/central banks and stimulus.
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Just watch the next data release I bet its weak…thats been the pattern for years. I think its tomorrow. Carney is desperately talking up the pound because I reckon he knows he cant raise rates. All that debt out there…this is the man who assured us of a post-yes-vote-brexit crash. Yes, a crash. And admitted its just as well he is not paid for results ! Wish I was paid millions for incompetence.
Anyway, the lack of an early morning charge is a concern for long positions but will probably have to wait for US markets to push on later, which they probably will.
A bounce would usually require a move today over 7300, if that doesnt materialise I will trim longs.
It is a bit funny but again, I took a tester 12547.2 and it dropped, I thought it would go to 51 or 57. Had FTSE shorts 74-66 spread out but closed with +2
Looks like FTSE didn’t get enough, it may delay drops on Dax.
Out with +10, this internet really slowed me down cos failed to close on a better price.
FTSE at the preferred retrace area for a sell at 7280 now. Looking for a backtest rejection of previous key support at 7285-300. 3 things can happen:
1. We reject and go to 7100
2. We reject for now and bounce around under 7300, holding 7200 and building a base to push higher.
3. We go through 7300 directly.
Usually when you get a major break like we had last week, you don’t get option 3. So it’s worth a sell and see what happens
…are you short Mcg ??
…i think tight stops are going to get triggered and 7300 tested
Yeah sold 7280 with stop at 7290. Break that then I will reassess. Looking for 7250s initially. If we print 7300 it’s probably breaking up
In at 79
This is more encouraging. We should go through 7300 now. We have retraced 3/4 of Fridays bear candle which usually means it will exceed it at least temporarily. Theres life in the bull.
How markets can turn on a dime..last week was panick…this week climbing the wall of worry….
12520 would be nice, please.
Comon, you can do it.
Why this Dow still going long?
Need to see Dow open higher close lower for a reversal.. don’t think it’s too far away now. Each day is pump the futures, dip back to previous days close and then rally. Bears need to break that pattern
Shorts are hard atm.
Holding ftse longs and dow shorts
7285-300 pivot area being respected so far, shorts look good below there
Had a Dax long all day from 12535… been really slow but profitable!
Ha, I wish I followed my yesterday scenario but I missed my long entry and was looking for shorts (cos I had to go out for a bit). Great trade.
Well, short didn’t work 12548 at 14.34, the rise started and I wasn’t sure was it upthrust or not, soon I understood that it’s not, but hope prevailed for a while, it did corrected my profits today to a some reduction as I did supportive shorts on the way. Not all trades can work. Looks like markets want to continue a long frenzy and Dax is catching up, I’m not standing on the way of it.
Hi all,
Rumours that NK are short on Dow and have been launching rockets to try and force a dip. And that where heavily invested in bitcoin, hence the crash….could be conspiracy theory but it wouldn’t surprise me.
I’m short on Dow at multiple levels, thinking we are not at the top but hoping to catch some retrace ….or not as it seems to be.
I think NK doesn’t have such a good internet connection! lol