FOMC at 7pm 7320 resistance and 7267 support – Trading help and analysis

33 Comments

1. Morning all. Holding ftse longs and dow shorts.

2. OMG, what’s with FTSE?

   1. Retail Sales

   2. Yeah, are they so bad?

   3. I wish I entered Dax but not FTSE 7254. But I like such drops, didn’t expect Dax going up although I felt it but after yesterday I wasn’t rushing there.

      1. Took half, shows me 7251.6 I may just hold it. But yeah, Dax …. was a star.

      2. To be honest those 20 points on Dax compensated on FTSE 20 points

      3. Took it, I need a breakfast.

3. Retail sales up so rate hike more likely?

4. Strong retail sales adds to case for rate increase making doubters like myself start to wonder.
   Dumped my second long position for a tiny profit and now wondering whether to exit my first one from last week as FOMC may cause major shift tonight.
   I think we might still hit 7300 today as the market will squeeze the short sellers who are probably piling in on the retail numbers. and I will probably sell later, dont fancy being in the market tonight as potential for a bloodbath.
   Might as well be holding these strong pounds.

   1. Candlemaster, can you explain what Nick’s “buy the rumour, sell the news” means? Every time I see it I don’t know what to do: is it a rise before the news and then a drop when the news comes out? As an overall idea, obviously. This one is the closest what I came up with. Please clarify if you know.

      1. Thats exactly what it is

         1. Thanks.

   2. It’s still more than likely a bull market, but the pattern all year on the S&P has been to rally then stagnate for a while, then give some back. There might be one more spike high but would think US markets will pullback soon. Can’t see FTSE going higher if the US gives back 1+%, and so far it’s a textbook retest of support turned resistance at 7285-300 area. The way I see it, if you were to enter a new position here, you wouldn’t go long until it clears 7300 so it’s an expensive 20 points given the potential for a reversal. Makes more sense to exit and then re-enter if it breaks up

      1. Thank you, Mcg, I got the idea what the sentiment is right now.

5. We may actually be at a major turning point in central bank policy and if so I dont want to holding stocks up here.

   1. …got a feeling it wont rock the market at all Candle

6. Morning all….Jack just in case CM is not about for a while….buy the rumour sell the news just means….when there is an important announcement on the way very often it creates an interest in purchasing equities which drives up the price…..sometimes it’s too much enthusiasm and when the news comes out its an anti climax…and the price drops back again as the excitement is now past…..

   1. Thank you anstel, as I understand it is a rejection of price on the top levels and that is what likely to happen? Dax just rejected the high but I think we are here for a upthrust “treat” towards 12616 or even more later today. Long pattern for Dax on lower time frame definitely breached, it shows a first sign of reversal (I know what I mean looking at my indicator pattern, I’ve seen it many times before)
      I may actually sit out the announcement. What about you?

      1. I’m just watching….

      2. Yeah, when I just was telling you about breached long pattern and here short comes in. I knew it, didn’t manage to act on it.

      3. I should have shorted when I saw the top reversing but you never know, it’s not the most reliable pattern. I doubt now about 12616…

7. Normally I dont mind holding through data and meetings and I just ignore the short term volatility… but this one feels different….ive got the heebeegeebees.

   1. To the downside?

      I’m also short Dow so a correction would be somewhat welcome.

8. I suppose if data supports inflationary pressures even before public sector pay rises kick in there may be a case for tightening in the UK…

9. Yes, any meaningful indication from the FED that its about to unload its balance sheet could see a nasty sell-off. Nasty for longs 🙂
   Im still holding a long position though

10. If there is a dolkar rally surely that will stem the pounds advance so maybe wont be so bad for FTSE mid-term.

    1. Think they taper or talk about it and the dollar goes up. US down but might spike initially. FTSE the chart is saying down.. it’s just how far Sterling dips and whether that’s enough to get it through 7300 and looking positive again

11. I didn’t take 12616 after all, only for a short time just to get +5. Don’t feel like leaving it overnight. Although it could be good but it’s not worth risking my sleep.

12. Can Anyone explain the DOW rise ??

    1. Lots of banks in there so guessing they like the tightening of monetary policy. Dow is a bubble.. everyone can see it’s quite high and moving excessively, but that alone isn’t enough to short it. Need to see a reversal sign.. I’m still waiting for an open higher close lower type of day. Been thinking it might come since 22200 but it’s gone up a further 230 points since. Until we get that it might carry on with the low volatility ramps. Tbh I think we know tomorrow AM.. 7300 FTSE is key, hold below there and bears are going to get going i think. Break above then the bull carries on. Bears just about done enough today to fend them off despite the Yellen ramp

       1. I think you are correct Mcg, frustrating week, Ftse seems frozen at this level and the dow just ploughs ahead

13. Expected bad news = up.

Comments are closed.