Flat day with 7402 resistance | 7320 support | BOE rates | Trading help

51 Comments

1. The BoE will not surprise IMO and merely state they are watching the data. The pound will fall. Stocks will rise. I intend to depoly half my capital before the event, retaining half to add to stregth next week or to add on weakness in a few weeks if I get today wrong.

   1. Expected ‘good news’ for stocks. Initial rise then carry on down again.

      1. Agree.. I’m long but looking to get out after the decision. Could be a non event. Dax/Dow/SPX look set up to pullback so thinking it goes down again soon. They’re obviously not going to raise rates, just depends on the voting split. Think the sterling reaction could be relatively modest – we had the correction off $1.32-33 after the BoE last month and it’s made it all the way back to a new high so there’s strength there. Maybe a move back to $1.31 then up again

         1. Personally i always build a short position and sell into the rally on the ‘buy the rumour sell the fact rule’ far more profitable on the way back down. Apple was a great example of this on Tuesday.

            Today i think down if unchanged and down if shock raise. Like you say it’s a none event really.

            Candlemaster is one of those getting it priced in for us early.

            Could obviously be wrong though.

2. Long at 7365 no stop.

3. Not on Dax though, buy the dip didn’t work as well.

4. Brave person to front run a news release Candlemaster! ;0). It’s difficult to guess this one. The committee manages currency strength this by altering their voting numbers. A rise in number of hawk votes will alter market reaction without the need to change policy. Game of bluff as usual!

   Still holding longs on DAX, DOW, TECH, FTSE and EURGBP. Added to currency position on weakness yesterday. The reversals on the higher lows on the 4hr FTSE dfb appear generally quite constructive. The historic riskiness of September has me slightly on edge I must admit.

   1. I like the support on the 4 hr and I doubt the BoE will upset that so I say we gently melt upwards. You out of gold?

5. BoE MPC Vote 7-2 To Keep Rates On Hold At 0.25%, 8-0 To Keep Asset Purchase Target On Hold At GBP435 Bln

6. Doesnt seem that hawkish. Will sit tight on longs.

7. Catching knives is a bit risky but long at 7320. Dow is looking bullet proof at the moment and i suspect it will drag everything up this afternoon.

8. Apparently a ‘hint’ in the minutes of possible rate rise over next couple of years. Watch the data change again next month as per usual to completely negate that hint. I shall await a good daily candle to get all-in.

9. Holding shorts on ftse and dow

10. Played out so far, +135 points. I don’t use charts or any technical analysis. Just make a two way price.

    Next Price 7305-7355

    1. Interesting tell us more. Sounds like hedging where you can never escape a position.

       1. It’s just market making/jobbing.

          This morning for example tried to be confident so raised just 10points each time to help me go short.

          made 7320-7370 (sold @70)
          made 7330 – 7380 (sold @80)
          made 7340 – 7390 (sold @90)
          Short 3
          made 7350 – 7400 (unlucky to miss 400 bought 1@50 (short 2))
          made 7335 – 7385 (bought @35 (short 1))
          made 7320 – 7370 (bought @20 (level)

          Last price was an error on my part. Always make price based on position in book. Should have possibly lowered more and made 7310-7360, this would have kept me short of 1 and have a bear to work around, take more profit and if anything i would have hoped (and make it easier) to go short again at 7360 leaving me short of 2 ready for the next fall. Or once going level i would then make 7290-7340, going long much further down and at that entry would have seemed ok or would have been just as happy to go short.

          Two way price helps give a sense of the direction/sentiment of the market based on how quickly orders get filled/how long price hovers around each end of the range. Also keeps you consistent when closing and stops you guessing where you should aim to take profit as you just follow the process each time. Always buy @ low price sell @ high price and then from there it’s just important to focus on what you do based on position in book rather than what the market does.

          Anyway level now and making 05-55

          I can give an update at the end of the day.

          1. In a trending market you could get wiped out. Wheres the risk control?

             1. Sell on strength buy on weakness.

                Markets always go up and down even in a trending market so you’ll always have an opportunity even if the opportunity is only a 10 point fall after 150 point rally. You can buy or sell more than 1 at once, narrow or widen spread or if too short for example lower just 5 points at a time instead of 15. The maximum i’ve ever been at risk is 16% and that was due to bad trading, being stubborn and going on holiday for a week.

                And obviously don’t trade too big – It’s a marathon not a sprint!

                1. Horses for courses…wouldnt be for me but thanks for explaining.

11. Long from 7310.. stop at 7290. I’m not sure it holds this time to be honest but have to treat it as the floor until it goes

    1. Out already for +2.. just don’t like it as can’t see it catching a bid. Maybe this is the time we head for 7200?

12. Nick where do we go from here if 7300 if broken and 22000 on the dow?

13. Brave to buy at these levels with the current backdrop-

    US topping out process.
    Full employment all round the world and anaemic w/w growth levels.
    Central Banks discussing cutting back on asset purchases.
    So called experts mentioning words like stagflation now instead of deflation.
    Stock markets that traders say won’t see a 10% correction!(ever heard that one before!)
    High level of self protectionism round the Globe & Geopolitical tension.
    September historically the worst performing month for stocks followed by October which is the most volatile with the biggest standard deviation of +/-

    Currently short at 7375 after BoE announcement will add on a break of 7280.

    Good luck all. By the way McG your technical analysis is excellent.

    To me, lower daily highs in FTSE point us back towards the world of reality which is sub 7100.

    1. Agreed GG33, as i said above that’s why i always try and adjust my price to maintain a short position, i’ve only been long twice since June and both times only ever long of 1 and made 19% in the process!

       Markets have no right to be regularly hitting new highs, in a proper bear market we can go down two thirds.

    2. Thanks.. agree with your reasons but one step at a time. Difficult to go from tight trading ranges to big ones overnight. Can’t see a major correction until the volatility has picked up a bit. 7100 looks on but would expect that would attract the dip buyers. No 10%+ dip though until we can achieve a 5% drop which has been elusive

14. If it works for you stay with it NTS. Not saying this is “the big move down” but I love stats and September is the worst performing month for stocks by far & October can be a complete curve ball.

15. Gold isnt worried about interest rates. What we have here is a buying opportunity in ftse, a classic tree-shake. I Will probably look to add on Monday what should be a playable bull candle tomorrow in stocks.
    A bull market is characterised by new highs, see DOW today, and such markets can remain irrational long after main st has exhausted funds trying to short them.

    1. Let’s see how it closes.. I think the Dow has the potential to form a shooting star today, just as it did the last time it went to 22200, and if that happens we’re probably going to break 7300. However, if we hold, then time to get long again

16. If 7275 doesnt form support might have to bail for 1.5% loss…which would hurt…would be first loss this year.

17. Well .. 0.75%…as only half capital in.

18. No stop on 7365 long, “look to add Monday”……..good risk management principles CM that you keep harking on about. Let’s see how tonight pans out as not sure what the catalyst is to drive stocks higher?

    1. Thanks. Its called money management.

19. Havent heard from you before GG33. But the market drops a bit and you seem hysterical 🙂
    Lets see how the next few days pan out but your position is very clear.

20. A weekly close above 7275 would be welcome here as it has formed support for about 5 months.
    I take great encouragement from the screaming hordes calling for big falls…market eats them alive every time

21. Well I was right earlier about Dow heading ever higher, but painfully stopped out on FTSE at 7290 for a net loss. Can see FTSE tanking on any Dow/Dax reversal.

22. Not hysterical CM just don’t see the reason for buying it at the moment, more reasons for st & mt selling opportunities

    1. I accept your apology and forgive you.

23. Hi GG33, I’m short Dow 22180, expecting a double top on it, I think the US is just sucking in longs, but I could be wrong, I read your earlier post, but I didn’t understand it, I know I’m not a expert but it sounded complicated, today I went long 7370 for 15 plts, then short 7327 for 30 pts, currently long 7303 for the 7320 area

24. Sorry I see my 7303 has already closed @7319.8, even though it hasn’t reached it on my chart, I can’t figure that out at all

25. Yeh sorry Pete it was a bit long winded but I was just thinking out loud for all the reasons why I wouldn’t buy FTSE at the moment. The only possible two reasons I would maybe look at shorting Dow would be a confirmed shooting star possibility that McG mentioned which may add some weight to your double top possibility, the other reason would be longs covering before the weekend but that would probably come tomorrow evening.

26. No stopping the Dow 22012

27. Bad day for crypto traders!

    And me as I’m short on Dow!

28. Added to dow shorts

    1. It must be enormous now that short….every post I read it says added to Dow or Ftse shorts :0o

       1. Haha

29. Conflicting signals again for tomorrow.. it’s held the 7290 area yet again and we’ve got options expiry in the morning. However, I’m not convinced it’s going to have the legs to kick up and go back to 7400+ this time before a break of support. If it’s going to break I’d expect rallies to be capped by 7340, so maybe the range first thing will be 7295-7340, but looking to sell rallies rather than seeing them as strength heading higher again

    1. Cable has a lot to do with the Ftse s fortunes tomorrow 240 pips stronger has had a marked effect….Cable could quite possible sell off again……in which case Ftse could recover some ground………don’t know at all…..

30. NK launched another missile tonight

    1. Is that what’s causing it….?

       1. It might be Icarus’s night…

          1. Markets went back up !…… mad world

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