Election getting close | 7510 support then 7470 | Trending day looks bearish

6th June 2017

Well yesterday was a bit of a damp squib with nothing much happening. The FTSE 100 had a slight dip of 20 points down to the higher support at 7520, bounced back 20 and that was about it. Gold hovered around the 1280 level for most of the day, and there was a 4 point range on the S&P over the entire session. Lots of traders keeping their powder dry ahead of the election on Thursday, as well as a bit of general uncertainty.

There are still 77% of IG clients short on the FTSE 100, so I imagine they will want to pop the market higher to stop out a few more retail shorters – the market wont drop hard while so many retail punters are short. Usually!

I mentioned yesterday that there was support between 7509 and 7520 and it was the higher support that held well. Should the bears break below this, and it is bear Tuesday after all, then we are looking at 7470 where we have the 25ema on the daily chart. The 2 hour chart is still bearish, and the ASX200 trended down for most of its Tuesday session – a pattern that we may well do also.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels

I’m expecting a bit of a weak day today. We were pretty flat yesterday, the election gets nearer, the polls have narrowed, the ASX200 trended down all day, Asia was mostly lower, etc etc. So can the bulls defend the 7520 level? They managed to bounce a bit off it yesterday but a break of this opens up the 25ema on the daily at 7570 – a level that I think we may well hit today.

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47 Comments

  1. Morning,

    My gold buy from yesturday is doing well (1278 in) which is good as I went in heavy based off new tech method in trailing.

    Gone long FTSE at 7510 this am. I think GBP will weaken leading up to election and as such FTSE to rise. Also as nick says there are a lot of shorts which normally are wiped out before a fall.

    I think post Election Day could be interesting. !

  2. Been long gold 6 figures since 1224 based on very old tried and tested method. Remain long.
    Ftse trend is now down.

  3. Morning chaps,Ftse seemed to be slowly decaying to a lower low 15-20 pts each day as election uncertainty nears ..”I’m long from 15 though as I think it will rise again soon. Let’s see how it plays out….

    1. Hoping to get short around 7545 based on what I saw at 6am when doing my analysis.

    1. Why? It’s now broken long term bear in to bull.

      It may retrace a little but I think the trend is now up!?

        1. There’s downside iin cable and Dow can push back up through 200 to give Ftse a right old shove North I think….let’s see how it plays out..

  11. I don’t know about you guys but I find the markets facinating….I really enjoy my time engaged with them :0)

      1. It’s one of the hardest challenges ive ever set myself and its full of surprises….there’s so much to learn ….:0)

  12. I’m still:

    Short oil 47.02
    Short FTSE 7530
    Short DOW 21200

    I expect gold to pull back heavily. I ‘m waiting to come back in at 1230 ish level. If it doesn’t, so be it.

  14. I wonder if TMFP is still on bitcoin… I remember him harking on about it at $800. 🙂

  18. Some people on here change their minds every 5 seconds. I think they play the 1 second chart and would be happier playing the milisecond chart. I shall phone the providers forthwith and see if they can help. Perhaps the nanosecond chart would be of interest?

  19. I choose not to hold stocks just now. I think the pound will spike up end of week and ftse will fall. Much prefer stacking the precious metal going into thursday.

  21. Let’s be upfront gentlemen…if anyone has issue with what I or anyone else has posted then please say and I at least will do my best not to irritate again.

    1. Clarification : My comments were not directed to you or anstel or Si or Nick or George

  22. No probs Icarus.

    The Friday Divi, is that FTSE? I thought they where only wednesdays?

  25. Well I’m still away with the fairies it seems. Risk off all over the show. Dollar dropping faster than a whores knickers and yet the indices are still way up there.

  27. I’ll buy the breakout of that double top, though looks like we’ve lost a bit of momentum on lower timeframes

  28. The awesome rise of crypto currencies this year must have central banks worried and their governments. Imagine if they lost control of the monetary system? Because thats where this is pointing. Also good for gold.

  29. I’ve been in cryptos for about six months now. Ripple and Stellar I’m in heavily, I’d recommend both

  30. Sold most of gold nearish the top at 95 and have now added in again at 92

    Shame my s&p trades aren’t going quite the same way.

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