11.7 FTSE Dividend | 7470 support | 7542 resistance | Tory poll lead narrows

7th June 2017

Equity markets remained cautious again yesterday with another small range on the FTSE 100. Gold managed to rise to the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 1296 before a small dip back, however there is definitely a flow to safer assets at the moment. In the latest poll news ahead of the UK election the Tories are down to a tiny 1 point lead having really messed up their campaign.

The ASX200 had a more positive day today, the first this week, and I think we may well have a similar pattern. The lower supports around the 7500 to 7510 area held yesterday and we have climbed a little bit. The 2 hour chart is still bearish though so the bulls will need to break 7535 first thing this morning. We also have an 11.7 point dividend on the FTSE 100 which may well bring a few dividend hunters out before the bell for a modest rise.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels

The bears had their chance to take the price below 7500 yesterday but didn’t manage it so I would expect it to be more bullish today, especially as we have the divi to factor in. The ASX200 had a bullish session Wednesday as well which bodes well for the commodity heavy FTSE 100.

The bears are too wary to be massively short at the moment as there is the election coming up and its pricing in a Tory win still, even with the narrowing polls. Mind you, we all know what polls are like so probably just scare mongering to make sure everyone votes.

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100 Comments

  2. Morning fellas,nothing new here,still long Ftse in ydays position nicely in the blue and its a decent size and still short gold that’s losing at the moment it’s only small so not unduly concerned and I still expect a decline in the gold price after the election if not I will dump it……good luck all…

      1. I’m not quite sure what it’s got Nick so I’m thinking of exiting between 65-75 at moment…

        1. 50 pts would be a great result and I don’t want to blow it by being greedy…The thief in the night…….my greatest adversary…:0)

          1. When you say that I always remember the song: Thieves in the Temple, Prince. It just reminds me of it. And him. Today is his birthday by the way. I am all celebrating.

          2. My gold short is kissing profit now….earlier than I expected though after ydays push up..

          4. Yeah, he was my favorite artist. Met with his ex-guitarist 2 weeks ago so I didn’t trade for this reason. It was a conference. Now back to business. GL to you too.

  3. Honestly so happy with that almighty push to 12720, I thought I was going to lose my pants. Just closed with a few points loss. Phew. Waited since yesterday. Why did I decide to go long yesterday I have no idea. Maybe a break I had before.

  4. I’m making a mess of gold today. I was short, lost, then I went long, lost, now I’m short again from 1288.

  7. I didn’t see this suspected manipulated pullback happening but it will be back up…

    1. I’m going to get my play station console out again and trade from that….it will remind me I’m having my leg pulled all the time ….lol :0)

  8. Hello all.

    I had a great long on Daz this morning for 60pts.

    I am still long on gold. Added in at 88 but getting nervous!!!

    Long on FTSE at average of 7534 heavy. Not looking good!

    2. Hold on Morko you will be right…..hope your not too big though….if you can trade without fear you can nail it i reckon……but if it does become obvious we are wrong we have to dump it without a second thought….

      1. Pretty much every really good winning trade ive ever had has been in the red before coming good….shows you how crap I am lol :0)

        1. I have added at 7513…b/e now 7530…there are two big divis so to me it should rise, that said we do have mega Thursday tomorrow.

          I have 2 short positions as a hedge. I’m ok for funds but will drop if we go sub 7490

          1. I don’t think…..could be wrong ….but I don’t think we will go below 10 now…

    1. A patient trader is a profitable trader………that goes for holding positions and importantly not entering the market till a good probability trade shows up…….not having a position IS having a position….:0)

      1. In my view this is a “lets wait a while and see how many longs bottle it before we all jump in and buy it back again ” pause…..think I”ll take gromit out………:0)

    1. Ok, waiting for the rise …. it would be too obvious surely to have today as the turning point…..wouldn’t it????

      1. I think when it does turn it might go up pretty strongly…….its goin to keep us guessing though….

    2. Sorry, I got really over excited there. Couldn’t help it! Blimey, I was short to the absolute max on oil trying to average out and then WHAM!

      2. Great :0) don’t forget to take the blue…..unrealised gains belong to the market….I got reminded earlier grrrrrrrrr

    3. Cheers guys! You know what, I’m going on holiday in a couple of weeks and I’m going to take the money and run. See you next month! Blimey. :’)

      2. sounds like you got a get out of jail free card! happy to hear.
        Could do with one myself.
        If only the nas100 falls 5%.
        Then I can close my account and be done with this game.
        I dont have the mindset for it.

  16. Gbp up ftse down. Simples. And it will continue this week.
    Gold still long…be lots of people trying to short it under 1300 so when enough are sucked in…whoooosshhhhhhhhh
    Note whenever gold falls back just a little it quickly rebounds.
    I think when governments decide to attack cryptocurrencies gold and silver could be big winners.

  18. Does look like a Ftse pump this morning to 55 then a surprise 4% drop in oil due to extra 3.3 million barrels they forgot they had…..lol…..my arse…where’s that play station handset gone and my new duracells …..

    1. Better get these dura cells in the right way round and get it working before they realise they got it wrong and they have 3.3 million barrels less than they thought and Ftse goes back up….you couldn’t make this shit up even after 6 bottles of Stella….

      1. LOL Anstel. Its amazing just how wrong they can get it with these inventories, just to spice things up I guess. Expected 3m LESS… actual 3m MORE. Experts… pffft.

          1. Where do you hide 3.3 million barrels of oil without noticing? Just sayin…..it must take up a lot of room?

  19. Good afternoon all. Nice to meet you gents. I’m a new trader relatively, around a year or so so still much to learn. If today’s action is any indication as to the markets games that will be played during the election period… tighten yer seatbelts I reckon….

    I can’t even imaging how the market may react to either outcome. Tory’s are seen as pro business, BUT they’re theoretically bullish for GBP so… I have no idea what to expect, except the unexpected I guess?

    1. Welcome …….hope you got through the winter OK without your voice going up too many octaves :0)…… Sorry it just came into my head that old sayin……best of luck with your trading and welcome aboard….:0)

      1. Thanks mate. I need all the luck I can get, particularly fighting my own bad habits. Funny how I can almost sense when I’m going to go rogue, but rarely find the necessary discipline to act preemptively. One day I’ll crack it 🙂

        1. If I can give you one tip it would be to keep your size small until you start to understand how it works and don’t chase your losses ……realistically it’s probably going to take you 3 or 4 years to start figuring out a strategy that will give you consistant gains…it’s very very very difficult……and remember looses can exceed deposits……they say that for a reason…..good luck…

      1. I think we will see 7570 pretty soon.
        Just decided to play the short term movements that’s all.My earliet targets stay valid.

        1. Yeah hopefully you can short it higher up and you don’t have to pay tonight’s divi…..and best bit is you are at the business end of the market with the oportunity to close out profits here and now :0)

    1. I’m a clown too had a nice little gain above 50….. I’m not sure how many times I have to make the same mistake …….sometimes I’m on it like a rash….but others I’m stuck in the headlights expecting an extra 10 points…..mind you I was up all last night so I’m not as alert as I should be….need a cup of tea and we’ll sre what happens next….

  22. Cable turned the corner and seems to be dropping and my gold short is still teasing me but hopefully it will start dropping properly as Ftse goes back up……unless they find out they have forgotten where the rest of the worlds gold is and demand grossly exceeds supply in which case Si is definitely goin to be a billionaire lol :0)

  23. Well I’m still in FTSE so let’s see… will go up at some point!

    I’m long gold still, although that’s more mid term but does act as a hedge for the margin!

    GL

    1. That’s a very wrong reason to stay in buddy! It will go up at some point!
      Guess what we will turn a corner soon and I hope to warn everyone here. Once that happens it will not come back up

    2. I’m still in too Morko….I think it’s just a bit of tree shaking to be honest…it will have taken out a lot of stops this sell off which just makes me think it’s goin up even more………

        1. If you are so sure it’s coming down why on earth did you close your shorts….make your mind up for crying out loud…..I think you have ego problems…..

          2. That’s a very good question. I have closed my shorts, as I said earlier to:
            1.Simply play the shorter term movements
            2. To get a better entry and in the process make more money
            3. To show you that I am not simply speculating but have valid reasons to believe the targets will be met sooner and hopefully prevent some of you getting in on the wrong side when the time comes

            1. I generally prefer swing trades as I get a decent entry (not always the best) and don’t have the time to watch the market movements constantly. Its usually a case of waiting for my targets to be met. The opportunity that presents itself here is too great to miss and I am just trying to do my best for the fellow trader

          3. We need to all get on , on here……..it’s hard enough trading the market……we all have different ideas,views ,opinions,and none of us knows what’s going to happen so I think the least we can all do is respect that we all think differently….and try and support and understand each other’s views…heck that’s how we all learn from each other……I wish you well ,,I wish us all well,but let’s stop bickering with each other and put our heads together to try and extract some capital from this Market…..we are competing with the worlds best traders so let’s try and help each other ……

            1. Absolutely and if you read my comments on that context it’s pretty valid right. Why are we all long and expecting the market to go higher.
              I am not trying to be a smart ass, we need to ask this question equally for longs and shorts!

          4. Hi Icarus,the reason I’m presently long is because it’s my belief that at the present time monetary policy is showing all the signs to me that it wants the market higher……..it doesn’t seem to bare any resemblance to any true market value as far as I can see but I’m not in a position to verify that. The businesses we are indirectly trading require two things to function…..labour,and finance…..without finance labour goes away….so when this market finally runs out of steam it’s going to be a very unpleasant time for everyone I think…as the finance is removed job redundancies will rise etc and unemployment will increase……I’m not convinced the policy makers are quite ready to kill the economy just yet so it’s my belief they will continue to support it in the near term….if it show a clear indication of a downturn then it’s time to short sell…..watching closely though for signs of a downturn though…..

            1. Okay. Question: what Would would come first, redundancies/finance be taken out OR drop in markets with bad news following the event?

              1. Again I am not being sarcastic or pedantic here. Just trying to have an objective discussion with an open mind

            1. I agree to that. Do you think we can achieve more employment or do you think our policymakers are actively doing anything to improve employment or are busy firefighting other issues?

          6. Then the market cap of the individual companies would decline,I would imagine a lot of companies borrow to fund expansion on their perceived market capitalisation and as the market cap declines so does the backing for their loans so somewhere they have to save money…..reduce the loans,reduce expansion,and then they will more that likely need less staff….this also has a knock on effect in the economy,less income tax being paid,less NIC and then less disposable income being available…..which a nice chunk of vat is usually payable when people buy the new cars,smart TVs and all the bullshit advertising try’s to sell us to keep the big ball rolling and everyone slaving away so they can’t see we are all getting shafted….

          7. Not only that but the people behind the monetary policy are more then likely the same people in control of the financial institutions that lend the money to the Big Multinationals they then make the money back they invest in the market by charging interest on the loans lol and the kicker is they are all the same people lol…..its jobs for the boys :0)…..

            1. Good so we agree on many things except the direction.
              One important point we have established is monetary policy makers and the bankers can be treated as the same. So, the big question is why did the policy makers get out of lloyds? Their position stands at 1% at the end of April. Who has bought them? Retail investors.
              Is it just a coincidence?

              1. I hope I have managed to sow a seed in your minds that I hope will benefit you in the long run. If Not, I will try again to keep my fellow traders from loosing to the system.
                If at any point I feel my analysis is not right I will hold my hand up and admit, you can br assured of that

          9. That’s a good point about lloyds they would bail if they were going to pull the plug…. I was going to continue on that theme but in retrospect I think it’s prudent to not elaborate further…. I Agree with you that the market is high and that a crash is a very real possibility…but everyday is a new day and it doesn’t seem to me to be broken just yet…..you must agree at the moment or you would still be holding your short position surely….it’s really good that we all share are views freely without judgement that way between us we may see the danger signs earlier…….hopefully our conversation on here will encourage others to post their views……and someone else can add something to our knowledge base and keep us all on the ball as best we can……

            1. I dont think it will be a vertical crash though! It will be slow and steady. Keeping everyone guessing for a long time

  24. If you guys think that’s a load of carp that’s fine. I will let the short term trades speak for themselves

  25. I was being flippant when I said It will go up sometime. But to clarify I too think that fundamentally the market is still in a rising trend.

    I spend a lot of time researching and formulating my own opinion of where I think the market will go. I have to trust my own instincts and decision making processes to do this successfully.

    Now Icarus if you think I’m wrong I welcome your comments as maybe I made an error or oversight and we are all here to make money and anything that assists this process is welcome.

    Bottom line if I loose I loose and it’s my bad, but none of us know for sure. Charts and technicals are only 10% of being successfully the rest is understanding trends, current economic climate (including manipulating forces) and money management. All these things tell me it will go up before it goes down.

    1. Apologies morko and anstel if my comments were hurtful. I genuinely didn’t mean it that way.
      The reason I made a counter comment to candle master in your support is because it was an unfair comment. To be perfectly honest, there is nothing wrong with any of our trades, it’s different because we are trading against different timeframes. I understand that, all I was trying to reinforce earlier was that sometimes under the pretence of strong fundamentals it just turns so we must always have a sound reason to stay long or short.

      1. Apologies accepted Icarus …..when we as traders have a losing period it can effect our personality and mood naturally as we have lost resourses….however it is all part of trading and I am trying really hard to not be euphoric or beat myself up if I win or lose….I’m trying to stay balanced,I havn’t got there yet,but I’m much better,think the longer we trade the less it effects us ……best of luck matey…

        1. He he while ive been chatting ive got some profit on my gold short :0)…..ok ive taken that :0) I can concentrate on Ftse now…..it was only small but it fills the car up :0)

  26. Icarus no need to apologise, I’m just grumpy for the two reasons below!

    Long gold 🙁 need 1291
    Long FTSE 🙁 need 7501b/e

    I’m less concerned with gold!

    I did add some low buys in and closed some out but it’s not been the best day….

    I seem to of got distracted from my new gold tech method and ended up in FTSE trades – not smart with PM election tomorrow!

  27. Well did some flipping and managed to take some profit and reduce positions on FTSE and gold.

    I will hold positions as I think gold will rise and as for the FTSE…? But I’m now small enough not to be too bothered. The rewards our way the risk.

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