Election day hope we dont get a hung parliament | 7440 support FTSE 100

8th June 2017

The high was 7555, and from that point on it dropped right down to the 7470 support level, pretty much in a straight line. Jitters started about the 7555 level also as oil stockpiles grew, which in turn brought the oil price down 4%, effecting the FTSE 100. Data from the Energy Information Administration showed US crude stocks increased by 3.3m barrels last week, compared to forecasts for a decrease of 3.5m barrels.  Coupled with a rising pound, the only way was down for the FTSE100. With the election today, longs weren’t going to pile in, so we saw profit taking after the rise from 7100. Latest polls still show the Tories with a slight lead, but the exit polls will probably drive todays action.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels

Going to be one of those days today when it could do anything as the news flow comes through during the day. Based on the performance of the ASX and a bit of a recovery in the oil price, one would expect a bullish day on the FTSE 100 today, with a rise from this 7470 support which we have had pencilled in all week. We are at the bottom of the 20 day Raff and the Bianca channels also, so a rise would technically make sense. But its election day! However, there is support lower down at S1 and a key fib level at 7442 – a dip down to here is possible, especially if the news flow is negative and we are looking as the Tories not doing as well as the market would want.

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189 Comments

      1. My thoughts are, maybe next week 🙂
        I was referring to “rise from 7100” in the post above

  2. Morning …..nothing new here..holding Ftse long…..and watching from up my tree….

  3. Morning all.

    Brother Anstel I too am still long! …Heavy!

    The divi was nice but seems like a consolation price at the mo!

    I hope this elections serves me better than the US one which wiped me out!

    1. Morning Morko…. Yeah I’m still long a little touch bigger than I’d like to be honest……Going back to November if you remember the Dow surged up in the night as the results came in….but the Ftse hit 7000 then declined and took about 5 weeks from memory to regain 7000 before it started this push up…..If history repeats I’m looking to exit this Ftse trade if it does go back up to 7550-7600 area on a buying frenzy asap in case it declines again like after the U.S. election…..further down the line we still have Oil which I believe will be the new QE as it eventually rally’s at some point..and could potentially provide a catalyst for pushing Ftse up further….stay on it today mate and good luck….

      1. Gold is dropping as I thought and if we do get a cable sell off I think we could be positioned correctly….

  4. Cable £/$ testing support..mini bounce on oil…All helps FTSE…
    Be aware outside reversal candle on the daily…could drop to 7400

    1. If I wasnt going away I would be looking at 7400 as major support and possible swing higher opportunity.

  5. Dumped my huge gold position this morning. On holiday next week so no open positions wanted. And no point returning big profits to market overnight. Will just look for another buying opportunity in July.

  6. I don’t like the look of the closed Dow being at 21192….. And Ftse showing weakness……be happier if Dow was lower with more potential for upside…

  8. Well I am getting a little edgy!

    I have a Long gold, short on Dow which will hedge to some extent.

    I can see this going pear shaped. Have set a few stops.

    GL

    1. I’m a little concerned myself to be honest,if the Dow sells off its not good for sentiment…still it’s always darkest before the dawn….wish the flippin sun would come up though….I’m holding, I think sometimes when we get nervous we can become indecisive and start chasing the noise….once that happens you go from one losing trade to another as you get whipsawed about…..mindfulness is great at times like this and realising that it’s our fight or flight instincts that try to take over…….I’m not going anywhere……just think about all the professional traders trading very large positions,that’s to our advantage,we can control the emotions easier as we are much smaller……it’s just a case of anticipating where the market wants to settle after all the commotion and digging in……good luck,hopefully we should do OK :0)……

  9. Hi All, Anstel thats wise words, helps to read it and remind myself that I should be doing the same. I’m long ftse and planned to make my decision before the polls closed. Kept it simple conservative win, ftse up then a drop back to where we have been holding. But other peeps been going on about the £ going up and will push the ftse down. Gets you over thinking your whole strategy. But your right just keep calm and stick to the original plan. If you see it going wrong get out. Always another day/trade.

    1. Bang on buddy our biggest enemy in succesful trading is ourselves and how we are built for survival…..I’m very conscious now exactly how I feel when I’m under pressure.we have three parts to our brains,the R complex ( fight or flight) ……the limbic region which controls our emotions…..and the Neo cortex which is our thinking brain…………I can recognise now which part is making me want to take action…….It has to be the neo cortex……..think probability longer term not survival in the here and now……good luck…….

      1. Your either a psychologist or been doing some deep reading Anstel. I like that. Self reflection counts for a lot.

        1. I’ve been studying every aspect of what we are doing with a fine tooth comb…….i like making light hearted remarks etc but underneath I’m deadly serious …..

    2. Gbp up ftse down. Currencies move markets. Ftse 100 nothing to do with UK sentiment. You would look at ftse 250 for UK sentiment.

  10. ECB On Hold:
    – Main Refinancing Rate 0.00%
    – Deposit Facility Rate -0.40%
    – Marginal Lending Facility 0.25%

  11. In my opinion when the closed Dow starts to recover the sentiment should have a exponential effect on Ftse…

      1. Would make things a helluva lot easier if only a given price move was 100% :). We’re seeing Cable and FTSE down today despite a Tory win seeming very likely? Will Comey’s words affect the DOW and/or dollar, meaning what for the FTSE? How far will prices spike the “wrong” way (like post Trump/Brexit) before they go the way they “should” as polls close and results come in? If I had a risk free bet I would struggle to choose whether to go long or short with it right now, but with all the above, I think I’ll have to make do with leftovers tomorrow morning. There’s always another day…

        1. I think you are right, it is an intuition guess based on EMA and the next support level and with FTSE lowered below the last support level. I wrote 100% as I felt it at that time.

    2. It’s amazing how FTSE is sleeping. I had good scalps today, on Dax, Dow just now. Lovely short scalps.

  16. Anyone long on ftse now have a stop in mind? I thought it looked like it might have turned a corner but seems it just wanted to peak out of the downtrending channel before resuming its drunken stagger down. I’m thinking a break of 7450 would NOT be a good sign, but if it holds…

  19. I’m still long, added at 55.

    I am in HEAVY.

    Will play by ear tonight in terms of stopping it out

    1. Hi Morko,I thought you closed out…….I’m still holding too……glad you still hangin in there……it’s not a nice feeling when it’s goin against you…..I’m not adding anymore though……good luck…

    2. It’s not a good sign to hold HEAVY before election results. I wouldn’t like that. 1 hour trending down. It will all depend on Elections results now so it will be jittery. May easily touch 7425.

  20. FTSE longs have cost me today. No negative poll news either, so not sure what is going to turn it around now.

    1. I’m makin the popcorn now :0)……. Well we would only be in the pub,watchin the telly.or chasing women…….nah this is more fun :0)

  22. A little equation I got of Larry Williams…………Einsteins E = MC2…….. Emotions are equal to the money in the account x the number of contracts in the market……:0). Pretty good that…isn’t it :0)

  23. I need +50 pts to b/e.

    I have added some short hedges and am still Gold Long which had risen again (thankfully)

    1. I need 70 to b/e…….risk reward is pretty screwed on this one….but to be honest I don’t subscribe to that theory anyway….very best case now if we are extremely lucky is 1 – 1…… But more like an inverse 1 – 0.5….added to resourses ….fortune favours the brave…

  24. Icarus, what did you base your stop on, any technicals or just a “don’t wanna lose any more than that?

    1. Yeah basically the latter. If I had to have a more realistic stop I would go for 400

  25. Lookin at the Dow with a Tory win you never know we could smash through 7600 in the early hrs…..that would be welcome payback for everyone holding longs…..come on Ftse :0)

      1. You know what Jack to be totally honest I don’t really think it makes much difference who wins,and it’s probably already decided anyway…once someone wins the uncertainty is over with…… And one thing we know the market doesn’t like is uncertainty…

  26. I’m going to vote for my Dog for the position of PM……….at least that way I know hes wagging his own tail :0)

  27. Fair enough, knowing how the ftse has moved previously on big event days it really is just a complete gamble.

  28. Or should we all be on the side line wait for the move either way and then pounce. Here comes the second guessing again. Nope stick with plan. Lol

  29. I see the Dow is on steroids again!

    I can see that smashing 2400 if the FTSE rallies. I had best short it just to be sure I loose all my money 🙂

  30. I’m fighting my FOMO urge… I’ve no doubt there’ll be some good trade opportunities later, but I don’t rate my decision making processes post midnight. Best of luck to anyone holding, and anyone who’s planning an all nighter… ride the waves like a boss!

    1. Exit polls just after 10pm though… but still, I’m already feeling knackered. Getting old 🙂

      2. I’m feeling a bit knackered too…..been up last two nights and looks like I’m goin to have to do it again tonight……at least when I was working I got to bed :0)….. Mind you variety is the spice of life…

  31. Just took 47pts out of Dow on a cheeky short.

    Closed out one of my high FTSE longs, and re added lower. May seem pointless but it lowers my b/e point and thus my risk exposure.

    A little win does help lift the mood!

    ….been out bought beer…long night ahead!

    1. I’m pissed already :0) that I didn’t shut this long at 55 yday. Then I could have had a second bite at this cherry….and an extra 2 k in the bank…….my own fault…

        1. I thought the thinking was that it would flash high then fall…that’s if the torys win.

          If Corbyn wins we are all done for..,that is those of us that pay tax to fund those that don’t. ( no offence to those who genuinely can’t – but there are a lot of dodgers)

          Post turtle is all I will say – google it if you don’t get it!

        2. I’ve been holding a small short on cable for a while and picking away at it here and there,only small though…

  33. Well I just did it again on Dow and manage to zero another position.

    Should get too brave…the US election took my down!

  34. Don’t know why you guys are so worried. It’s going to get up to 7570 by tomorrow morning. Chill guys!
    Tomorrow is a big day!

  35. I hope so Icarus…I worry as Trump took me for 20k which I built from £500. I know to some on here that’s not a lot but it was to me!

    I this goes to 7570 I will need surgery to remove my smile

      1. Trust me that is a lot of money in real life. Almost Average yearly wage of a hard working middle class person

    2. Every pound is precious……and to make 20 k from 500 is excellent.when I started I made 22k from 3 k but I blew the lot too ,then got it back,then blew it again….it’s really difficult to keep building the wall back up again but front all the research ive done it seems all succesful traders have done it multiple times before they start to find the holy grail…….”consistency”…..

      1. I worked my butt off to get the money I’m trading with,but Im glad I’m having a good go with it…better to try and loose than to never try at all…..

        1. At times like this it’s heart warming to remember all the winning trades we have made in our trading so far……my best single trade was on Ftse this year and I made 15.1k….I’m really proud of than one…..my targets now are much more modest but if it’s got three 000s after it its a good trade in my book :0)

  36. I started in 2005 lost aload and stopped, I started again, lost etc etc. I reckon I have blown 4 accounts so don’t want to make it a fifth.

    I am getting better but still making silly impulse trades.

    I have started off with more this time which helps but makes loosing it more painful.

  37. Anstel what was you short entry point for gbpusd if you don’t mind me asking, and what’s your stop.

    1. I’ve not got a stop and they vary from 28s and 29s its just a bit of fun I’m mainly trading Ftse now……ive traded Dow ,Dax ,silver, S and P gold and lean hogs :0) Ive come to the conclusion I’m best sticking to one market and learning it inside out……FTSE is my main focus at the moment…but it’s nice to trade minimum size here and there for small amounts….

  38. It’s good to hear your journeys fellas. I’m on my second account. Took it really safe this time round and this year up until one week ago I was 25% up on the year. Made some rubbish trades lately and finding it tough to accumulate. Seem to have good runs then one or two pants trades undoes all the hard work. Not easy.

    1. I’ve blown a few accounts….this year I took my account from 24.5 k in end dec to 92 k in April and blew it again when they announced the surprise election….bloody Marvelous :0)

      2. Did 16 k a week twice in that time I think and multiple 5-7 k weeks. Its all about consistency though….better to make a grand a week or £200 a day and keep it …

        1. I didn’t blow it all, I blew it back down to 24.5 k where I started from and I’m having another go with the same 24.5 k…..not sure if that counts as a blown account but it was a big setback….

  39. Stop Loss strategy is my Achilles heel, trips me up each time. The rest I think I have mastered enough. This bloody FTSE trade is a prime example!

  40. If you look back you will see that position size is usually the problem with most blown accounts. As Capital increases we tend to risk more and more and more. So now I decide position sizes depending on the probability of the trade

    1. Your right Icarus the problem is trading too big…..better keepin it smaller and don’t try to fight too many battles at any one time…..if it all goes against you your totally screwed..

  41. Crikey Anstel, I’d be over the moon if I managed that sort of record. It’s the whipsawing I struggle with.

  42. Love your enthusiasm. I think I could be better if I didn’t have a wife kids and a job. Lol. I also think there is only so much you read and learn. Bit of one to one tutoring is the pinnacle but only to help point out the things you don’t know. They say you can’t be successful by copying someone else’s way. As your not them and you will make different decision when on your own.

    1. The wife, kids and job (v stressfull one!) can distract but that’s true wealth, a family I mean. The job I see it pays the bills and allows me to top my account up enabling me to make mistakes, learn and make a million one day 🙂

      1. You know what Coomsby your a very rich man already……money is just bullshit….it’s nice bullshit and we need enough to live,but a wife ,a harmonious marriage to the right women, and children is true success…I walked round a cemetery after losing my mother,and I was looking at the gravestones…..I used to joke with my mates that I hadn’t seen one gravestone with ” I wish I’d worked a few more weekends on it” lol but what I did see was really special……it said….”to love someone is nothing……to be loved is something……to love and be loved is everything” Coomsby your a rich man already and the world is already yours ,congratulations :0)

  44. Yeh Morko, I totally agree on the family and health / wealth etc. bit of boys bonding on a big event night. Lol. Just before we lose the shirts on our backs.

    2. losing our shirts is not in our reality……this Ftse is goin up and we will all make a profit on it.:0)

  45. Smashing the Becks down to ease the transition of account to no account…again

    Should joke!

      1. Are you pissed lol :0) drunk and in charge of a trading account lol…holy shit….you know that bit about a harmonious marriage to the right women….well..lol…be careful….don’t press too many f@ckin buttons lol :0) you crack me up “…. awesome :0) :0)

        1. Holy shit ive just realised I put harmonious marriage to the right women…..lol ….I’m sure it shouldn’t be the plural…..please insert woman where appropriate…:0)

  46. Well some positions are blue!!!

    Gold is a concern! But I think this will rise as the markets fall mid term? Only small positions but they soon add up

  47. Just read your previous message Anstel, thanks. I am lucky. I know. I Got a really poorly sister at the moment and it’s been a real slap in the face that nothing else matters apart from family. anyway back to the ftse. Polls out soon.

    1. I’m sorry to hear about your sister Coomsby Is it cancer related please may I ask? sorry if that’s inappropriate but if it is cancer I would like to share something …

  48. Right my wife is watching DIY SOS and I want news 24.

    she knows I’m in a trade!!!!

    What’s the scores, any exit poll news yet?

    1. I don’t mind…if we could get put in touch via Nick maybe….I don’t know how to pm you….or if I can get your number I could ring you maybe,don’t mind? It’s just some things I learnt that might be of interest and possibly of assistance?

    1. What’s goin on Ftse down ? What have I missed, it’s showing closed at 10.pm at 7467.9 . On my screen….

  52. Obviously don’t like the exit polls. Or it’s an early tree shake before the flight up

  55. Dumped to 7384 and gbp down 200+ points.

    Glad I had shorts to hedge, closed and bought at low but labour are looking threatening and markets don’t like it !!!!!

    I see account 4 at risk !

    1. Do you use IG Morko. Mine says 7386.6 lowest. Wondered if IG had different levels for different folk.

  56. For once I’m glad my FTSE longs earlier were stopped.

    Managed to hit the sell button and closed short at 7388. Still down on the day though.

    and…..I don’t believe the exit poll…wait for the first couple of results….its going to be fun

  60. I think 30.5k in the exit poll tells you nothing. Way too small sample size. How many million have we got in the uk ?

  65. Right chaps stops and limit set. I’m off to bed. Good luck all. Catch ya tomorrow.

  66. Ok so is anyone pulling an all nighter with me?

    How are you all holding up with the nerves?

    11.25 pm city Ftse to sell 7423.5

      1. Goodnight Jack im stayin up and keepin an eye on the precedings never know might get a spike up :0)

    1. Good man it’s not over till it’s over…..I’m pretty chilled out at the moment and I’m not adding as I would have done a couple of years ago…..it’s just keep calm,think rationally before doing anything and don’t act on impulse ……..going to make a cup of tea back in a bit…

    1. I wouldn’t just look after what you have got…..there’s always another trade when we get out of this one but only if we have any capital……lets just concentrate on Ftse it can do anything this lot in the next few hours….don’t take on anymore risk…..that’s just my opinion though …..

      1. I personally think cable will decline further again…over a period…and bottom out again around low 22s then it will climb back….that’s what I’m thinking…..might be wrong…

  70. Thanks for confirming anstel. Big day tomorrow I think. 7570 calling. Off to bed now. Good luck!

  71. Ok no gample on cable for me.

    I’m still 80:20 hedged..set stops for shorts at 7470. If FTSE reaches this then it should be done deal and I will let the kings run to 7500+ hopefully.

    I’m not going to be up on this by a lot if any but hopefully still in game!

    1. No worries I’m just holding my original long from 21 now down a lot at the moment but cable has compensated somewhat…..I’m not adding just holding and stayin calm…..see how it plays out….I do expect it to climb back up ……and make a profit though but at the moment I’d be happy with break even….

  73. This isn’t looking good for May

    Makes me wonder what FTSE will do with a hung parliament

    1. It’s does make you wonder but I think its more the uncertainty that is unnerving the buyers…could I be wrong ….absolutely…. Let’s just see how it plays out…

      1. The way I see it the Ftse is a lot of multinationals and as cable drops its going to pull in buyers from outside UK possibly…cable has dropped about 75 since you mentioned it earlier…

        1. And it’s still dropping which is good for Ftse…..as it drops the buyers from outside UK will jump in and then as the Ftse risers the UK fund managers will have to buy as well to keep their funds competitive and not get left having to buy at the top…..that’s just what I’m thinking,might be wrong….hopefully we should benefit if it plays out this way….

    1. As if we havn’t got enough to keep us entertained lol now that’s a green candle :0) Ftse spiked to 7440 at 1 am for all you sleepy heads tucked up in bed who read this tomorrow :0)

        1. Tell you what Morko….be nice if we do see 7570 tomorrow..:0) or 7600 on a relief rally :0)

  76. ….never liked corbyn but maybe a hung parliament will dump the pound and lift the FTSE ?

  77. Also now 73% short on IG. Never good for shorters. Market will want to blow them out!

  82. I’m off to bed…work in morning.

    I hope I wake to a blue screen although I think that will be unlikely,

    GL

  83. Oops I nodded off goodnight Morko….Ftse 7421.8 to sell at 2.58 am on city.seems to be steady at the moment

  86. Morning hit just over 7490 to sell so far …cable 1.2693 to sell and Gold 1275.5 much better for longs profit in sight :0)

    1. I’m holding for a trip to the 22 s Icarus….could I be wrong? Absolutely but I’m goin to hold cable…its part of a longer term swing trade I’m up too…no sweat but thanks for your input :0)…..

  88. Well chaps we have seen 7515 to sell so far on city……pulled back to 7493 on profit taking before open….. Good luck to all who held their longs and their nerve :0) it’s not easy especially at size…

  90. I’m holding too added at 89 on pre open pullback…..might exit early though it is Friday and I don’t want my @rse kicked by the thief in the night yet again….it’s about time I gave him a taste of his own medicine :0)

  92. Today will be a very very interesting day anstel that is something I can assure of

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