Bull Monday but looks a bit more bearish on 2 hour | 7510 support | 7610 resistance |

5th June 2017

Unfortunate news from London on Saturday night with another attack which will most likely result in a bit more of a clamp down by the security services. Enough is enough PM May said, and we may well start to see more pro-active action. The pound slipped on the news, while the FTSE futures have dropped a little bit from Friday’s close. That was a fairly decent bounce in the end for the 7545 long last thing Friday, managing get 7565 before the weekend shut down. Was a shame that the high was just below 7600, failing to reach the ideal entry at 7612 though.

Kicking off a bit in the Middle East too, with four Arab countries cutting ties with Qatar. Four Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Qatar and moved to close off access to the Gulf country, escalating a crisis that started over its relationship with Iran and its support of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The World Bank expects the UK economy to grow by 1.7pc this year. This is only slightly below last year’s expansion of 1.8pc, and up from a forecast of 1.2pc in January.

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels
Daily FTSE 100 Trend Channels

We have a big week this week, not just with the election on Thursday but also a backdrop with heightened tension – we have things kicking off in the Middle East which will affect oil prices, and general sentiment, terrorist “fears” in the UK and other major capitals as ISIS ramps up attacks during Ramadan, and a general sentiment of weakening economies. House prices in the UK fell for the 3rd straight month, and there is an escalating debt bubble forming in the UK. In the EU, rising bond yields could spell trouble for Italy, the eurozone’s third largest economy, which has struggled to control its growing debt pile, while Greece will probably need further loans. So, all in all, we should see the FTSE at 8000 soon!

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49 Comments

  2. Hi Anstel,

    I watched that clip you linked too. It has seriously changed my outlook. I think that and I keep loosing has triggered something in my head. I related to what he said fully.

    So that said I have spent a lot of time this weekend reviewing my technical skills. Thinking that the indices are just too rigged I may try gold as its less jittery.

    I was also looking at the Darvos method which too is interesting.

    So long on gold tp 1 1300

    GL

    1. I hope it helped you Morko….I was just like you Si and Icarus but eventually the penny dropped….I don’t really think …oh its 7500 or 7600 it’s got to crash…..I think forget the number look at the sentiment and monetary policy ……if it’s positive sentiment it will go up if not down……it’s only at these highs because that’s where it’s been steered so go with it….obviously when it becomes obvious it’s time for a change go short…… Best of luck…

  4. Sorry anstel but don’t insult my analysis. I reiterate that I am not just trading in hope of a fall 🙂

    1. I’m not insulting you Icarus,just making a comment and trying to help everyone make some money….good luck mate.

      1. I think sometimes we are so determined that we are right we refuse to accept the possibility that maybe we are actually wrong……and that is something I’ve paid for before with hard earned money……if I’m wrong now I just admit it like I did on Friday ….I lost £745 I made a mistake and called it wrong….so I dumped it ….This is by no means an insult and is not meant to be…..but while we get stuck in a losing position,paying finance,and if short paying dividends,we are just missing out on making money where the action is on the day..Our ego gets in the way sometimes…….it’s like they say….”do you want to be right” or “do you want to make some money”….. Personally now I don’t give a …. about being right…..Im here to make money…..

        1. anstel, could you please give me a link to that video? I missed it.
          And can anybody tell me why Dax looks dead today? Are they on some bank holiday in Germany or something?

  5. I know Icarus was basing his shorts on tech analysis, but I was and always have been looking at it like it’s high and so must come down!

    I almost now will try and view it as a number with no perspective of where it is relatively

    1. I look at it: if it’s high so it is going higher because there’s a direction. Price doesn’t have meaning like it’s too high or too low. If it went high so it can go higher. Why? Who cares why if it does. At some point it will break of course.

  6. At 7525 we are at the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel, and have had a slow pullback this morning. Lower support is at 7510 so we may well see some support around the 7500 to 7525 level for a rise back to test the recent high at 7600. Above that then 7685 looks possible, but with the General Election on Thursday it will be some brave bulls to take us that high this week. That said, we could be on for some buy the rumour, sell the news and Friday sees the worm turn for a trip down to 7200 again.

  7. Anstel, the only reason I have held on and paid comm., dividends etc. only because I see what’s coming down the line. The profit I am going to make is going to dwarf the premium I paid so far.
    I am seasoned enough to not hold on to a trade just to prove myself right. That’s suicide and not trading. I can only say I see something on the charts which you shall see soon.

  8. Anyways, just to throw some spice into the discussion. Targets for te two markets I am going to be trading are:
    Dow 19900 or lower
    Ftse 6950 or lower
    🙂

    1. Hi Icarus….I’m just hoping I manage to be short with you when it does start to decline..Its just a matter of when really?…..GL.

  9. For sure it will come down, when is the question. i don’t think long term technicals can tell us that in this manipulated climate, they are all past tense and at best are a guide not a definitive to the future.

    Short term yes with S & R Levels, trend and volume. But that’s only my opinion and as posted I’m not trader of the year by a long way!!!

    Would be interested to see your technicals though Icarus, I’m sure I could learn something to add to my knowledge base.

    GL…so far it looks like it’s falling and I’ve bought gold so
    You could be in the blue sooner rather than later.

  10. I would say the sooner we get to 7350 – 7325 the better. That will be a good enough signal.

      1. Back end of the summer maybe once Corbyn has destroyed the UK after becoming PM on Friday, (shouldn’t joke really)

  11. Yes 7650 does seem to be on the cards but that should really just be a false breakout. From a technical viewpoint I think the markets are primed to sell off irrespective of the election outcome. I have come to believe that fundamentals don’t apply to these markets anymore

    1. There is certainly a lot of manipulation going on across the board. We were looking at Nat Gas earlier. Qatar news broke today yet NG started selling off strongly last week. So again those that needed to know, knew in advance what was coming. (Qatar produce a lot of the Nat Gas).

            1. My money is only getting wired to my account along with some of yours and others 🙂

            2. I have nothing but admiration for your strong belief in monetary policy (aka toilet paper)

          2. It is all a stack of cards Icarus you are right,unfortunately the dealer is giving out fixed hands of cards at the moment so I’m just playing the game….I think the experienced traders call it picking up dimes in front of steamrollers….and that applies to longs or shorts I think…..all we can do is evaluate the individual experiences we have had so far in our trading journey and try to turn that experience into a monetary gain…I think the key is being totally flexible in either going long or short as the market dictates ……If we all thought the same we wouldn’t have a market… I know one thing for sure,never ever underestimate monetary policy,it’s unlimited capital that can move the market to levels that no one ever imagines…..ive been burnt before !!

  13. It is looking a bit thin at these levels, I see a drop coming although I’m sure it will cut short by the PPT

    1. Just to add if 4650- 4700 area holds for the next 24 hours. If you get a 4hr close under 4700 short it is

  17. Just read your post above anstel. Start practising your shorting skills in maybe a demo account. Near term Key level is 7325 for shorts

    1. All set with the sell button Icarus , I have been slowly improving my shorting so hopefully I can have some success on the downside at some point…. It still seems stable at the moment to my mind though but for sure it can change at any moment….good luck hope we all make some money :0)

  18. Morko, read our post from above. The markets seem to be stuck in a strange zone where if the fall lower, it creates a bullish divergence causing price to surge. Once it gets back up there is bearish divergence. Interesting part is that the higher timeframes have bearish divergence and lower timeframes have bullish. So we should see drops of more points than increases. Typically you will identify this as a bullish hammer creating a nice illusion for everyone

  19. Just added to gold in the dip. Why…well it’s in buy mode mid term and as money flows out of stocks it will flow into gold

  21. Out of my long from 40.8 at 45.3 very nearly regained half my loss from Friday but Im out now so can get a nights sleep which is more important…..bit of a slow day really and in hindsight I entered too early…still points are points ….new day tomorrow…goodnight all…

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