Could start to get more bullish | 7085 7095 7108 resistance | 7022 6995 6980 support

Could start to get more bullish | 7085 7095 7108 resistance | 7022 6995 6980 support

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Oil prices climbed above $75 a barrel today for the first time since early August as supply problems in the US continue. Brent rose as much as 2.8pc to $75.67 a barrel and US oil was also higher.

Prices had already been climbing this month before Hurricane Ida shut down a chunk of production on the US Gulf Coast.

The International Energy Agency has warned that the world will have to wait until October for more supply to be available as OPEC and its allies ramp up production.

The FTSE has closed lower after figures showed inflation accelerated to a nine-year high, raising concerns the Bank of England could move to taper stimulus measures sooner than expected. The blue-chip index slipped 0.1pc, while the domestically-focused FTSE 250 dropped 1.1pc in its worst session in nearly two months. Losses in the FTSE 100 were limited, however, by gains for BP and Royal Dutch Shell, as well as life insurers.

It  came after new data showed consumer prices rose 3.2pc last month in their fastest increase since 2012.

The global economy is expected to undergo its fastest recovery in almost half a century this year, the United Nations has said. Following a 3.5pc contraction last year, world GDP is forecast to surge 5.3pc in 2021 due to “radical” policy intervention and successful vaccine rollouts in advanced economies. The UN said this expansion may fall back to 3.6pc next year, taking the total cumulative income loss since 2020 to $13 trillion.

Pfizer said that data from the U.S. and Israel suggest that the efficacy of its Covid-19 vaccine wanes over time, and that a booster dose was safe and effective at warding off the virus and new variants. The study comes just days after a panel of scientists from around the world said vaccines work so well, most people don’t yet need a booster.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th September 2021

The 7020 level remains the line in the sand and held repeated tests yesterday, while the S&P500 defended the 4440 level. As such, the bulls will be keen to build on that today for another push towards the 7085 resistance level and also we may get a test of the daily 25ema at 7094.

This area is also just above R2 and also the key fib at 7085, so we could well see the bears have another go here, though if the S&P can break through that 4485 that stopped the rise yesterday then we may be over the bearishness for the moment. That could well see the FTSE put in some bullishness into next week. That said we have quadruple witching tomorrow to bear in mind so expect some chop from that tomorrow morning.

The key though is that 7100 area and with R3 at 7108 for today the bulls will need to push on above that, and certainly defend any dips!

For the bears they will be looking to move the price below the S1 level at 7022 and that ties in with the support from yesterday at this price. Any break off 7020 is therefore significant and then the 6950 or lower level rears its head again. S2 is at 6995 and S3 not far below that 6980. The Raff channels are heading down still though so the momentum remains with the bears for the moment, though their reaction on any test of the 7100 area will be key to see how much power they still have.

Generally I am thinking that we will get a rise today with S1 holding. The S&P could be the driver so watch for a break of that 4485 resistance level – that was the key fib for yesterday, and that key fib for today is now at 4502 – so a rise to that may well play out. A bearish reaction there could see a small pullback as it is also R1 so should in theory get a reaction.

Good luck today.

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  1. US Initial Jobless Claims Sep 11: 332K (est 323K; prevR 312K; prev 310K)
    US Continuing Claims Sep 4: 2665K (est 2740K; prevR 2852K; prev 2783K)

  2. Philly Fed (Sept) bounces to 30.7 vs exp. 19

    But, unlike Empire Survey, New Orders and Employment sub-indices both fall. A mixed print under the hood for this initial September data after August misses.

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