Can the bulls defend 7500 today? | trading signals analysis help

Sterling rises on latest polls | SP500 nears the 3126 resistance | 7160 7130 support | 7245 7300 resistance

18th October 2017
The bulls failed to break above 7565 yesterday even though we managed to break 23,000 on the Dow during the US session and set a new record. The SP stayed below the 2560 though, but gold fell further away from the 1300 level. The bulls do keep fighting back, so while the 7545 short managed a profit with the drop to 7515 they bought it back up again, to keep the prospect of a trip to 7600 alive. I am thinking that if they do push this up then we will actually exceed that level as we have the 20 day Bianca channel at 7673 today which is an area worth remembering.


FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction Support Resistance Trading Signals Anlaysis
FTSE 100 Prediction Support Resistance Trading Signals Anlaysis

The bulls most definitely bought the dip yesterday – twice in fact, at 7505 and 7515 – and the bears failed to break below 7500 so the momentum is still with the bulls. They now need to break the 7566 area which was the recent high, though there is a fib pivot resistance level at 7578 which may cause a stutter. If they were able to push above the 7600 level as well then 7673 is the next major area of note, where we have the 20 day Bianca today. Might be a big ask to get that high today but that area is worth noting.

On the bearish side, if the bears can break 7500 then 7478 is the other fib level I am watching and will likely see decent support here. If they were able to break below this then 7455 is the 25ema on the daily, and a good swing long entry. It may be that 7565 stays as the short term high and we get a leg down from this current area to that before seeing a further rise. It looks like the bulls will need to be quick out the blocks today. Yesterday I was more confident of a drop down through 7500, but seeing how well that area was defended makes it look like the bears are still quite weak, though a third test of 7505 may well see a break.

Ball is in the bulls court really and watching to see if they can break through the 7578 area today. It may well be that it just pops above the recent high but then retreats.

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69 Comments

  3. I don’t know, missed this spike on Dax. It crawled out of the blue. I thought it would drop first. Now thinking should I go long on the all times high or just sit it out? Dilemma.

    3. Where it lands, I got my trend line, this winning is going to the bank later as a punishment of course for low stake entrance.

        1. My 47 individual position is still underwater but I added on the drop to 15 yday and closed that position for +21.5….. I bought on the drop this morning to add to the 47 …..showing a modest profit on combined position…

    3. Well 97 is the last one maybe, I am disappointed with my indecisiveness today. Just a nervous environment, all times high and all that. It feels weird to long the number to which we were getting to for weeks.

      1. Not sure about Dax Jack but Dow and Ftse are not broken till their broken….they will suck in a lot of unsuspecting shorters I think….I can see 23800 on Dow…BUT….watching for any sign of a turn in sentiment..

        1. It is a bit scary to go long at these levels. It’s like now Dax retraced a bit, go long at 60 be my guest! But agree that FTSE need 7600 today.

        2. May I ask, anstel, on your Dow chart on Daily. Do you see the massive spike on 8 Sept 17 from 21803 to 23910 and back? It was overnight and shows on my platform. Do you know what that means?

          1. I don’t see any spikes on the daily Dow chart Jack….on 17th sep I have a high of 22282.5 and low of 22268.5…????

  6. FTSE still bearish below 7550. Got stopped out pretty quickly on my speculative Dow punt. But would expect that to turn soon for a dip. Think low 7400s before 7600.

    1. Also worth saying, 3 days in a row there has been significant selling at the closing auction which is usually a negative sign. But with opex on Friday it might be pinned above 7500 with the bigger move down next week

  7. Ifs all very uninspiring. Dax looks like breaking out and holding over 13000.
    Fancy dow to kick on towards 23200 today.
    Expect pound weakness but its all very slow and bigger moves probably shaped by currencies at end of week.

  8. Had a quick look at the Dow daily. Whenever the RSI has been this high before, upside has been limited. The highest was in March, and that marked the high for a couple of months and we corrected 3%. Another similar reading in December and we went higher for another 100 points before trading sideways for 6 weeks with lower prices

  9. No position in stocks. I dont want to be caught holding them when they drop. Im taking a longer vies than normal and reckon gold is in uptrend with further to run but may test 1265 first so waiting to add there. And I reckon gbp will test 1.30 so thats the preferred currency to hold gold in.

    1. What do you suggest if someone is holding a large amount of stocks globally which increased around 100-120%, do you think now it is a good time to sell them and take profits or wait till prices may go any higher to 150-180%? I am talking about the stocks which have already been bought in 2007-08 or even earlier with intention to hold for over 20 years.

            1. This is a huge bubble now, and when it turns it could get ugly and be worse than 2000 or 2008. I’ve never seen so much complacency before, mainly an american thing but they’re been so greedy at the moment. However, trend is up and any day where we make all time highs is unlikely to be the top. I’d say keep an eye on it and wait for a levelling off in the trend. So looking out for a pick up in volatility, more frequent and sizeable drawdowns, periods where no new highs are made for at least a month or two. At that point the trend could be rolling over and that’s when to get out. Selling now might mean you’d miss some more upside as the same arguments could have been made all year and it’s still up 15%.

              1. Yes, exactly what I was thinking. I will wait till it will start leveling off, that will be good sign, at the moment Christmas is coming and it’s not a good time to sell I reckon hence we held it for a decade now.

    2. Or maybe as stock market is doing so good it will continue like this over Christmas and New Year and then Sell in May? They are still diversified. I will have a look this weekend how they are spread. (It is not my account)

  10. Neither am I a day trader, and feeling rather uncomfortable about being long here. The difficulty for me here is that, despite the US market needing a little break for a retrace, being on the cusp of a raft of earnings is keeping it tight for the meantime. Probably of success with longs has dropped in my view, yet it’s hard to be on the sideline watching it go up. A spike up and reversal would be ideal.

    Also quite disinterested in FTSE these days given how sterling is calling the shots.

    1. 50 record closes on dow this year. 4700 points up on the year. When it does drop it may be a long time before these levels seen again. Sure it might still be up here around xmas buf i dont care. Black monday 30th anniversary drawing close wwwooooOOOOOOOOOOooo….

  11. Could be and looks like a classic final pump & dump on the Dow for me….108 up on the futures?. Nothing ventured and all that-short 50 @ 23098 on the Dow stop & 23160 and short 100 @ 7549 Ftse stop at 7570. Nothing more than a whim and CM’s last figure that we’ve moved from 17,500/18,000 in the Dow to 23,000 without the slightest hint of a decent retrace!

    1. Got to be close now you’d think. Would be nice to see something other than an up day on the Dow as it’s horrificly boring to watch.

        1. Yeah could be a similar move to August 8th. I can’t remember the last time the Dow turned negative on the day though so feel like it’s due

    3. My 60 Dax entry wasn’t great for long.
      FTSE tricked me with it’s long position, I thought 52 won’t break. But as usual, Dax did it “his way”

    1. I think these comments could turn out to be significant. If they do pass something there’s going to be a lot of haggling and it won’t be easy to agree. So the market could come off beforehand

  15. AUS200 put in an interesting atar candle yesterday looks a decent short if it trades under 5880.

  17. Here we go boys… this could be it. They about to sell the closing auction for 4 days in a row?

  19. For what it’s worth, I see no relent until 23300 for Dow.

    I’m long and staying long until Friday close,

      1. Hi Jack, wish I did but I closed too early last night, bought again today at 23100.

        May hit 23200 if last minute pump happens….the force is strong with this one

  22. Really tempted to short after close but I can’t do it…

    I was always a bear but simply I make money when I buy and loose when I short – enough said.

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