Bulls can’t break 7550 | watching 7475 | trading signals analysis help

Can the bulls manage 7600 again today | US closed | Learn to trade Analysis Signals

19th October 2017
The FTSE 100 wasn’t quite as bullish as the US yesterday, as it failed to push above the 7550 level, while the Dow climbed steadily to pull away from the 23,000 level and both that and the S&P continue to make record highs. Earnings data is coming through positively in the US, while UK data yesterday showed unemployment at its lowest level ever, though wage growth is still sluggish. Coupled with the 3% inflation figure released earlier in the week, there is a bit of a dichotomy for the BoE with regard to rates. More than 80 percent of the 52 members of the S&P 500 Index that have already reported earnings for the most recent quarter beat analysts’ forecasts.


 

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106 Comments

      1. If he’s held this long, might as well keep holding now the technicals have gone bearish. Not sure how far it falls but should provide some respite at least

      2. No i havent reduced stake Jack. Now is not the time to do so, as the weakness has set in.
        Not overly excited as a 100 point drop is nothing really. Lets see what the open brings.

        1. That’s when you reduce the stake: on weakness to reduce pressure and exposure of your account at expense of recent wins. You won’t lose anything but the stake will get lighter, it is always easier to add up later. If you cope with the pressure it is fair enough. But we don’t know what the market will do next. I would insure myself.

  2. TAW!!! Weakness is kicking in. Lower Low on FTSE. Standard bounce to short term support towards 7520. Bears are awake!

  3. Beautiful move this morning. Bounced from last week’s low initially. Might work off oversold conditions on the hourly but see this heading towards 7400 over the next few days. Clear reversal on the Dow too

  4. Got long on the drop at 89….. Actually pressed at 93 but slippage actually worked in my favour for a change…

    1. Same.. but cashed longs now and reentered shorts. Dow looks similar to 1st March when it broke 21000 the first time. Clear bearish reversal signs everywhere today

      1. Mcg, agree it does look bearish, but you never know in this environment. It did nasty not retractable rises on 17, 11 October, have a look at 10 min (Dax) It looks like today is the same. hmm frustrated. What if somebody was late for a train? It didn’t retrace again. Oh. Maybe later.

        1. It’s not market specific though this time. Dax, ftse, S&P and Dow all saying the same thing. Usually a pretty good signal to get short. The Dow is showing signs of weakness just like it did at 21 and 22k. Dangerous being caught long up here

    2. Lucky, I was at school. Now waiting for a long entry, maybe it will drop for a bit again. I’m not having 67 points stop loss.

  5. Too early to be calling weakness in stocks, volatility has woken up a bit but no more. A weak close on stocks tonight might imply a crack at shorts worth the risk but until then jury is out.
    GPD still looks weak, and is supporting ftse.
    I remain long gold and short the pound as the safest play here.

  6. Wow…,

    Put £20pp on a Wall Street to finish up when it was -100+, risk was £35. Literally £000s up. Do I hold or take the money ?

    1. how are you thousands up on a 20pp on the binary. It’s letting you exit at 19.3 atm, so my calc tells me <400.

    1. Longs are countertrend.. lots of bulltards over the pond will sell the Dow now as they were buying yesterday at the highs so need to get out. 7480-500 pivot won’t hold this much longer I don’t think, so low 7400s looks like the place to next go long if you’re looking for 50+ points

  10. Icarus I hope this is the day that turns it around. Under 7500 I wouldnt have any hedges on.
    I hate hedging. You just get stuck in an even worse position than the one that forced the hedge unless you get lucky.
    It suggests you dont operate stop-losses, but when you change your mindset and take a few small losses you learn to like them.
    Granted you were very hnlucky to get caught in this outrageous bull-run.
    I use MM more than stops now.
    If i see a great set up I deploy half capital, knowing if it moves against me where I will double up.
    The stoploss for both positions is under that second candle I bought.
    Because if that gets taken out you know youve got it wrong.

      1. I agree hedging is a double edged sword. In part i use hedges only to keep a trade alive if i still see some hope. It allows me to buy some time thats all. I like to add positions in smaller chunks so that allows me to scale in without causing significant damage to my account. So i would probably deploy 5% 10 times before exposing 50% of capital. Sometimes 10% 5 times depending on the level of confidence. Part of the equation is also that i trade off the daily and weekly charts mostlyand never ever go under the hourly. That means i have to allow for time for the market to turn in a favourable direction

        1. Sounds reasonable. Warren Buffet says make your bets big. I agree, providing there is a stop. If i see a hammer candle on daily and price trades above it next day im all in. I want decent rewards for my efforts.
          I also never SB. Tasted it once and its a recipe for disaster.
          Try etfs instead. Get away from the dopamine-environment of SB situation, only one winner there.

  11. Morning folks!! closed my short from 60 at 500 today ! reshorted 20 this morning closed @ 05! though 4 hr is negative (bearish ) now but wouldnt be surprise to see rise til 540 as cab;e has dropped significantly since morning. just my thoughts. this is not yet completely black and white in termsof bear and bull. my thoughts just have patience with loser andkeep taking blue every now and then in the end equity is whatmatters. have fun

        1. If we can get a drop on cable below the 50 sma on the 3 min at 68 we might get a push higher….as I said that cable went up 6 pips….

            1. Your range was 490 -500 to 540 – 50 wasn’t it Mcg so I’m thinking its a resonable entry at 500….. My target was 7515 but it only got to 10 so far…

              2. Yeah it’s a reasonable entry for longs as it’s not too far away from being invalidated. So can put a stop at 7480. Just not sure it’s got the strength to rally back this time as the momentum is heavily down

  13. I meant hundreds up, got carried away with zeros…anyway closed up.

    Have added again now so let’s see if it rises again.

  14. The problem with hedging with SB company is there is a feeling of relief the margin call wont come and your account looks better on screen.
    You might get lucky a few times and think its an easy game…eventually the big market move will come and you face wipeout.
    Plus if you are hedging, you have probably incorrectly convinced yourself the market has only tempirarily forsaken you….you will be wrong.
    Dont hedge folks.
    See a candle. It defines your stop. If it moves in your favour try to let it run. Otherwise exit stage left.

    1. Any strategy that doesn’t have a defined exit will leave you open to a huge drawdown. The game is about steady accumulation of points and slight increases in leverage over time. If you have a trade open and you’re worried that the market could do something then you’re doing it wrong. IMO hedges are for profitable trades and stops are for losing trades. Example: bigger move is a 300 point rally, but resistance expected at 150 point mark. So you’re long and have a good entry, but think the market gives some back so you sell the resistance as a hedge with a stop above the level. That way if it goes straight up you take a small loss on the hedge and keep the bigger picture position. If it pulls back as expected you take profits on the hedge and keep the initial long. Hedging when you’re offside doesn’t make money as you end up trapped one way or the other and if you take profits you’re sat on an even bigger loss on the initial trade. I have to disagree on spreadbetting though.. it makes it easy to lose money as it’s so easy to bet too big etc.. but it’s a tool and is very flexible so if you manage your trades properly it’s no different to any other form of trading

      1. Except the SB company moves against its clients and WILL widen the spread for a few miliseconds to take you out and you realise a loss where it wasnt merited. Just google that for all the court cases. So the odds are stacked against you. Or they dont exercise a stop where market moves fast against you and you get shafted again.
        The house edge of casino games is fairer than this. Very few people can afford to sue them so the dice are totally loaded against the client.

        1. I think you are wrong, Casinos have the worse edge than SB company. I know it by experience with Casions. To widen the spread, it’s ridiculous. If the price is near your stop anyway it won’t make any difference if it is stopped or not. It must be a bad trade anyway. If the trade is winning, SL is miles away and you can set a profit or b/e already, it’s nothing to do with miliseconds. Obviously when crashes or flashes happen but they are rare and the spread is wider on that day anyway. Gaps generally happen overnight or maybe on News like NFP and then even SL won’t help. But in generally, everything GOES CORRECTLY.
          Watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRCtBRsLPmk He is a funny guy but explains it with passion.

          1. Its a good video, but he is talking about the market, not a SB company which introduces more risk for the client. Remove this risk by trading etfs is my message. No stamp duty. No overnight financing. And no leverage, unless you really want it.

            1. Capital gains tax though? I think spreadbetting has a bad rep because some brokers do stuff like that. But I’ve never had a problem with IG. Execution is all fine, charts are ok, stops always executed as instructed and the platform rarely goes down. Any losses I make are because I make poor trading decisions rather than because I’m using the wrong trading vehicle IMO

    1. why so salty? The underlying product is still the same. So I don’t see the issue. Just got to manage risk differently to using other products like futures or ETFS.

  16. MCG I get your point about SB as a tool, but unfortunately it is like regarding fruit machines as a source of income supplementing ones state benefits.

          1. Looks like the Dow is having more influence on Ftse than cable…..cable approaching oversold on 3 min so it could help to push it up soon.

  20. What chart platforms are people using?
    I always used fxcm marketscope which is fine but now stick to tradingview which are beautiful charts.

      1. It depends.. not usually.. and if I do my stop will still be on. Think this is on its way to 7400 next week so tempted to hold. The last 6 hours have just been burning off oversold conditions to me. Failed gap fill on the Dow too probably. Gift selling here given the turnover in momentum and how close we are to the top

        1. Bear in mind that at night the spread widens and your stop can be triggered if it’s not far enough. I don’t like to hold overnight and if I did before I removed stops, unfortunately, otherwise it would be triggered.

  26. Icarus its always the same in this situation. No easy escape from the market.
    The agony may be accurately compared to that of a flea sliding down a razor blade using his balls as brakes…

  28. Hi All, just to let you know that I am going to be redoing the website and launching a completely restyled one. It will have a dedicated forum with much more functionality than posting under the daily posts. It will include the ability to include image files with your posts and so on. I will be taking this site offline, probably tomorrow, to enable the update.
    Some images of the new format below:
    https://prnt.sc/gzfy4q
    https://prnt.sc/gzfypu
    Having the dedicated forum will make life a lot easier for us all.
    Thanks, Nick

        1. I personally like coming here to see peoples ridiculous calls and lemmings style approach. Oh ‘A’ is buying so I will too. Not sure the service is worth £50 considering your trade plan on Tuesday was void as of 5 mins into the session. Peace out!

  30. Can always change the plan though. Jumped on shorts today for example as it dropped but hadn’t actually “planned” to do that today

    1. Very True Nick. Can’t understand why you cornered yourself saying up to 7600 from there though. Couple of guys on here called a topping pattern at 7560 area last week. It’s the right trade to be on until it goes… I like what you’ve done with the site and tbh it takes courage to throw out your opinion.

    1. Yes I am. I live in New York atm. Looks like a step closer to Trumps master Tax plan. Have you covered?

  34. Yes. I saw it nudgeing up around 2.am ….woke up again at 3.10 just as it peaked…well I saw 54 to sell anyway…..I know it’s not what you need to hear but like I mentioned a few days ago I can see 23800 on Dow…..only 550 pts off now…

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