FTSE 100 outlook prediction analysis for 18th November 2019
The FTSE 100 ended Friday narrowly up, after spending most of the session on the ropes. European equities rallied more broadly, as upbeat sentiment over trade won out. Coca-Cola HBC was the biggest faller on the FTSE 100, giving back some of the gains it made following solid results earlier in the week. It closed down 80p at £24.76. Telecoms firms found themselves in the spotlight as investors reacted to Labour’s plans to part-nationalise BT and offer free broadband.
In the US, retail sales beat expectations, rising 0.3% last month, while industrial production fell, dropping 0.8% last month.
Mixed Markets
Asia stocks looked poised for a mixed start to the week as investors continued to wait for trade progress and Hong Kong braced for more disruption. Currencies were steady early Monday. Futures pointed to modest gains in Japan and Hong Kong, and were little changed in Australia. The S&P 500 Index on Friday reached another record in a sixth week of gains, the longest streak in two years, after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said negotiations between the U.S. and China were nearing the final stages.
Trade Trouble
The Trump administration’s trade war is ravaging exports to China across the U.S. and well beyond the farm belt, new data from the U.S. Commerce Department show. More than 30 states stretching from Florida to Alaska suffered double-digit drops in merchandise exports to China through September of this year. Sales to the Asian nation fell 39% in Texas, where oil and gas products comprise the largest export to that country. Exports to China support more than a million U.S. jobs, according to the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents American companies doing business in China.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The bulls fought back well on Friday, from just above the daily coral that we have been waiting for a test of, which was at 7236 on Friday. That is now slightly higher for support today at 7239. We are below the 200ema on the 30min to start with today and we may well see a pull back from the 7322 level to start with today. We also have the red 2hr coral at 7319 though we have had several tests of that since it changed to a red trend with the drop off 7430. There is still the likelihood of a move lower towards the 7100 level prior to a year end rally to bear in mind. For the moment the 7240 area remains a bounce level though.
If the bulls were to break above the 7320 level then a rise to 7350 looks pretty likely. Above this then a retest of the 7430 level is on the cards. We have R3 at 7450 for today but I don’t think we will get that high today! The fib at 7383 however may well be possible if the bulls push it up further today. We will need the bulls to defend the supports pretty strongly though to see that sort of optimism.
The S&P is still pushing on, sat at 3119 now and is primed for a push a bit higher (3130 fib level I am watching) before a drop back down towards the 25ema on the daily chart at 3056 currently. That is starting to get into a decent shorting area now. The 25ema has remained untested since this rise started and the moving averages went bullish.
If the bears were to break the 7293 30min coral which is green and now initial support, then a drop down to the 7249 level looks likely. As mentioned above, below this then a trip down towards 7100 is probably going to materialise though before any Santa rallies. That does of course tally with the S&P dropping down from around this current area towards the 3056 level.
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