Bit more bull to come, 6700 FTSE (9400 Dax?)

Good morning. A fairly flat’ish day on the FTSE yesterday which kind of followed the plan, but dipped back after hitting the 6665 area. However, overnight its been ok and I expect that we will see a little push up today to the 6700 area where there is some daily resistance. I am also watching the Dax for 9400 where I expect it to stutter a bit, and worthy of a swing trade short. The FTSE has certainly been lagging the other indices recently, dragged down by the miners that make up a  fair chunk of the FTSE 100.  The S&P has struggled to get above the 1808 area, though if it manages then it should still be on for the 1814.

Gold weakened off again after that bounce from 1228, but failing to break 1252. If it doesn’t get back above that level then I think it could be heading for sub $1200. I am watching resistance at 1252, and support at 1228, 1223 and 1180

The US markets are closed today for Thanksgiving, in the past that has meant that we often see a fairly flat day on the FTSE.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average closing at the highest in six years as the yen touched a sixth-month low after U.S. employment and consumer confidence reports boosted optimism in the world’s largest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8 percent to 142.16 as of 2:06 p.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the measure rising. More than $8 trillion has been added to the value of global equities this year, the biggest increase since 2009, as central banks took steps to shore up economies worldwide. The Asia-Pacific gauge jumped 9 percent in 2013 through yesterday, while falling 0.9 percent on the month.

“Asia’s earnings growth does remain largely leveraged to the global economy,” Michael Kurtz, Hong Kong-based head of global equity strategy at Nomura Holdings Inc., said in an e-mail. “Our economists expect the U.S. economy finally to accelerate to a more robust pace in 2014.”

US

Data yesterday showed fewer Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the labor market is showing resilience. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment in November unexpectedly rose to 75.1 from 73.2 a month earlier. The median forecast of 65 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 73.1.

The Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading indicators, a gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months, rose for a fourth straight month in October, reflecting gains in factory orders and applications to build new homes.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economy probably will grow more slowly next year than some forecasters predict and indicated that a record U.S. stock market isn’t in a bubble.

U.S. Futures

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent, with U.S. exchanges closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 has climbed 27 percent this year, heading for the biggest annual gain since 1998, as the Fed pressed on with its stimulus program. The gauge closed at a record 1,807.23 yesterday. About 4.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, the slowest trading since Aug. 26.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

We are currently bang on the daily pivot as I write this and if that holds as support at the open, the next key level will be 6262. If the bulls can break that, and I think they might, then we could reach 6684 and possibly (hopefully) the 6700 area. I have the Bianca channels on the daily at 6696 for 10 day, and 6703 for 20 day, as well as the 10 day Raff here so feel that this area is certainly worthy of a short. We have had a pretty good bounce off the bottom of these channels at 6625ish when they were hit the other day, but its been a bit of a slow slog, and now we are nearing the top of those channels I expect that the bears will be keen to have a go. Coupled with the fact that the Dax is likely to hit that 9400 area today and S&P has failed to push on past 1808, I think that we might see some bearishness kick in. With the US closed today it might be tempered a little though.

If the bears do manage to drop it then they will need to break 6628 and if they do then 6613 and 6582 are support areas.

We have a fairly decent rising channel on the 30 minute chart for today which I feel might hold initially for the rise. On the Dax the daily pivot is 9348 which could hold and form the base for the push up on that.

154 Comments

  2. fk it..not trading today closed my short at 6664 with -12 point loss.
    too busy today with other stuff and cant focus on trading…see ya guys tomorrow, might post here if i have time today.

      1. 😀 steel balls to short DAX. I do not see any move to downside, only small pullbacks. Round numbers are for rookies and more squeeze…

          1. with due respect, dotn trade on what you feel. Trade on what you see. It took me a 200 K sterling to learn that lesson !

  4. Nick/Everyone – Over the last month or so US and DAX have grown strongly, FTSE has stagnated/fallen. When US and DAX fall then the FTSE tumbles. I know it’s stuffed with miners but wouldn’t you have thought these moves on other markets would have dragged the FTSE upwards?…..can anyone explain this…thanks?

  5. closed a short out on dax at 9350 from 9310 lost 40 pips

    will come in again at 9400 to short back to 9250 perhaps to 9200

  6. My Dax short orders at 9385 and 9399 triggered so im short Dax. Just added FTSS short at 6679. Happy to hokd for a bit. Poor data today my view is we’ll see a drop… short squeeze on very low volume has occured

    2. Regular reader but posting for the first time. What data are we expecting today? Im looking to short DAX too.

  7. I think we have a chance now of breaking that Broadening Wedge from Oct.30 and that Cripple IHS could have a word also

  8. US holidays today so volume may be light. Not worried of any slight rise happy to sit on them for a bit. Dax is so overbought and fundamentals suggest downdide

  10. SUPPORT ON A PULL BACK ON DAX WILL BE AT SOME WHERE AROUND 9265

    I SEE THIS FIGURE OVER NEXT WEEK OR SO , THEN A CONSOLIDATION BACK TO 9300 MARK

  20. Long 6642 (Made 8 points)
    Short 6652 (Lost 8 points)
    Short 6681 (Made 28 points)

    Think I will sit on the fence now for a while, although I can see it doing the usual up and down all day now between 20 points.

  21. FTSE shorts closed for nice profit. Closed as a hedge as im loaded up with DAX shorts at 9395 average. Stop moved to 9405. Looking for 9340 minimum

  22. lol sooo lame…i had short at 6664 and 6679 (was busy so closed the 6664 at a loss of -12 points). wouldve been a nice profit today 🙁

  26. I am currently short on the dax longer term but if you have position in the dax then you should leave it that way…

  27. The FTSE certainly slipped a cog or two last Tuesday 26th. It is now making heavy weather of regaining lost ground – to ≈ 6700. FTSE 1 hr. has just fallen back within the confines of a channel steeply falling since November 25 – so there is the chance of a further slide with weakening momentum. Is your indicator tending to bearish Hashmash? 🙂

  28. Huh not just the housing market, central bank have f**ked every responsible saver!! Yet the bank that caused all the problem by lending too much are the one that benefit from the Great Wall Street Ponzi scheme!!!

    1. That’s my thoughts at the moment, but am wary of the Dow. If that has a bad day then FTSE will struggle…

  32. Definitely, years of experience Black Friday = bullishness. Estimates for uk ranging from £3-5bn, and US god knows how much. Looking for a small dip in the morning for the rest of the day to be outright bullish

  40. Out of curiosity, what charts do you guys use most often i.e. 10/15/30/hourly etc?
    Anyone use the 4hrs?

  42. I use daily and 4 hrs as I tend to hold positions for days (in the case of the ftse its been a miserable week or nearly 2 weeks ! )

    1. Don`t worry bro tomorrow cometh day your patience will be rewarded(hopefully!) Once we get that 6700+, i`ll start considering going bearish, but for now 6700 all the way.

      1. I do not understand that fixation in 6700. In my view, that price now is already beyond the Broadening wedge formation since Oct.31.
        If we see that value I cannot see we going deeper from there.

  43. Look at that daily on the DAX and please tell me why you would to go bearish at this time and moment. I agree Dax is ready for a correction but only when we actually get a decent drop…

    1. If you don’t position yourself before hand you’ll miss the drop… Increase Unemployment and higher CPI are both Negative for DAX. There is no reason DAX shouldn’t retrace… It will fall, and fall fast, so i am scaling in shorts at the moment. Not Short on FTSE at the moment, but had a nice run this morning.

  44. It’s just that people were trying to short 9000 on DAX and 16000 DOW, but to no avail. Just trying to point out we don’t the high till it’s already dropped

    1. Yes that is true. I have a stop on my DAX at 9405… But with an average of 9395ish im holding for a 100+ pts gain or getting stopped out, rather than scalping 20-25 pips which i could have done. It may well be stop gets hit and i have to look at 9425-50 level which is my next target should 9400 break. However given the negative news today, the only reason it hasn’t dropped is due to low volume everywhere due to US holidays… Easy to manipulate on low volume… Once we get it back down we go imho… Might be next week though, we’ll see.

      1. I believe that the markets will drop next week. New highs,new month, a convenient time to drop for a week/2 weeks before a comfortable Christmas rally. Though i think DAX and DOW will drop higher and faster than Ftse, as they have been climbing disproportionately, so looking to short both. Tomorrow will strain the bears, otherwise Monday will be the day I start preparing the shorts.

  45. Lol….Everyone has heard of ‘pump and dump’…how about the reverse? Dump and pump? Also known as ‘tree shaker’ moves designed to steal your shares by forcing the price down hard and fast and then forcing the price back up just as fast. Was trading Rio Tinto today.

    It dropped some 220 points in a few days from £33.18 to £30.99…and very conveniently just a couple of days later it rallies back some mammoth 200 points…high today of £32.94…after news (conveniently) that Rio is to increase iron ore production by 20% by 2017. Daylight robbery if you ask me. Market makers dropped Rio by 200 points to fulfill their buy orders from the city crooks…fleeced the retail investor of his Rio shares only to make a killing…they knew this news was imminent!!

  46. Also someone get that idiot Kelly back from IG. She was saying FTSE weakness in last few days was attributed to mining stocks lagging. But now they are rallying today, so where are the commensurate ftse gains???

    2. Spread betting companies are interested in one thing only; your money. Services provided, purporting to assist their customers, are usually sub-standard, and often deliberately adulterated – in my opinion!

  47. Anyway I got short in Rio from £32.85..hoping for a 35 to 45 scalp by close…way too overbought for day.

  50. £/$ rally past the 1.63 level is due to a short squeeze largely…just aim for a scalp of some 40 to 50 pips….back to 1.63 level…

  52. nah I should have @ 80 today at flat and paid the funding ..but the shiny lights of 700 made me a pig ready for the slaughter !

  55. expecting a similar day tomorrow…..
    Going to add to my shorts tomorrow in prep for next week..will give my entry points later once i got pivots supports n resistance.
    still go bearish signal

    1. With you all the way. No FTSE Shorts at present as cashed in my 6680 shorts, but holding firm on DAX… Will be adding on any rises.

  58. Daily candles with longer shadows as it approaches top line of the broadening wedge . Tomorrow will be somehow decisive how FTSE will react.
    If I see a break there, then we have the expected rallie

  59. .. What I have learnt from this forum is
    we never spot a recovery until it’s ended
    but we always foretell a fall before it’s begun 🙂

    1. I think I’ll wait until tomorrow to say that I think the US pair is primed for more upside. 🙂 Not sure that I share Ahwab’s optimism re the FTSE tomorrow though – 6700+.

  60. jim take a look at the weekly on the ftse you see a triangle consolidation pattern potentially playing out and if that is the case you do see a a rise to 6700+

  63. Gone long at 6650. Looking for 6680 tomorrow where I can take a 10 point loss on my 6690 but im still left with +20. And depending on if we see a bullish day, will close my 6680 at break even or let it run. This could all turn sour

  64. Potential H&S 15 minute chart for tomorrow. Maybe will be invalidated as today’s bear flag. Will see…not adding any position right now.

      2. And this coincide with bottom channel and around the 38,20 fibo already touched some time ago

  65. Hash – I’m risking 10pips for a potential 100+ pips. We’ll see how it pans out. May have to short from highs but we’ll see

  67. a shooting star has developed today. I think its likelywe will see a nice drop tomorrow. Im still in my short.

  69. Ahwab – no one knows where the high will be. However that doesn’t mean I won’t have a go at various points. It can be very lucrative if right… If we drop in morning I’ll move my stop to b/e on Dax. Price action today indicates may have blow off top next week on Dax and US indices

    1. But about where that high will be no one knows not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.. … 🙂

    1. Stubborn isn’t it lol… Still im in profit and hanging in there. Everything points to downwards so not changing my stance. SL in place so will just see what happens.

      1. Its into weekly resistance now, right on top of trendline at 9400… Potential for blowoff top or exhaustion gap up, but far more downside… Don’t know how you can say safest is to go LONG on DAX after poor data coming out plus at all time highs… Its gone from 7500 to 9400 in the space of 6 months. Relentless!

        1. resistances mean shit all wen a market is a bull trend. more prob it will continue to go up than down. play the trend dont try guess where the top is…because yeah u will eventually find the top but will realize the profit u made from it is much much less than the losses u took trying to guess it (assuming ur account dont blow up before u get it right lol)

          1. You make a valid point… But as i’ve said many times already the technicals & fundamentals from yesterday do not support further rise without pullback… DAX for example im short at 9395 with stop now at 9401… Hardly going to blow my account with 6 pips. All about R:R, if im wrong will try again at 9425-50 level.

  76. Im shorting ftse at 6676 (stop at 6710), wont push it in for anything less.
    already have short from 6696

  77. Friday DAX close above 9224.5 would be 8th successive week of gains. Last extended run of weekly rallies to 9 weeks was Apr 1998… Again not a basis to go short on, but with everything else starts to put quite a strong case for a correction of some sort.

Comments are closed.