6647 to hold today hopefully, 6697 possibly?

Good morning. After the mornings excitement yesterday that followed the arrows with the rise to 6680 and then the drop back the rest of the day was flat as a pancake, what with the US being closed it felt like everyone packed up and went home at lunch time. Today might be the same as the US markets close at lunch time today for the Black Friday shopping extravaganza. (The US also has Cyber Monday in December but that’s another story). Black Friday today is basically a shopping day with massive discounts available. I was probably a tad optimistic expecting 6700 yesterday afternoon! News this morning is better for Spain with their S&P outlook raised to stable from negative. The Dax hit the 9400 level but the drop seemed a little subdued – I expected more bearishness I admit – though I was waiting for 9405 to be a little bit more exact. Just on the Dax, support is at 9364 today so would need to break that if 9400 is to hold as a short term top.

bianca trends
bianca trends

With prices failing to hit 6700 yesterday the 10 day Bianca channel has dropped to a high of 6673 and the 10 day Raff not much better at 6690, so with a downward short term trend, the bulls might struggle a bit at 6680 (mid way between them). 20 day Bianca is 6697, a short here with a stop above 6711 should be good to play today if seen.

Gold weakened off again after that bounce from 1228 the other day, but failing to break 1252, with yesterday’s high being 1246. If it doesn’t get back above that level then I think it could be heading for sub $1200. I am watching resistance at 1252, and have support at 1228, 1223 and 1180

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asia’s benchmark stock index headed for the first monthly loss since August as GrainCorp Ltd. (GNC) plunged by a record after the Australian government rejected a takeover bid by a U.S. rival.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 141.90 as of 2:10 p.m. in Hong Kong. Trading volume has slumped in the past two months after prices surged 6.4 percent in September. More than $8 trillion has been added to the value of global equities this year, the biggest increase since 2009, as central banks took steps to shore up economies worldwide.

“I would expect trading movements to follow fund managers book dressings rather than any specific news,” Evan Lucas, Melbourne-based market strategist at IG Ltd., said in an e-mail. “The fact volumes remain subdued in the fourth quarter and we are approaching seasonality issues with holidays etc., price moves are likely to be thin and easily corrected if they look overdone.”

The Asia-Pacific index jumped 9.7 percent in 2013 through yesterday, while falling 0.3 percent in November and rising 0.5 percent this week. It traded yesterday at 14 times estimated earnings, the highest since May, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 16.3 on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 15.2 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent from the close on Nov. 27. U.S. exchanges were closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

S&P

Have just put this in its own section so it’s a bit clearer but the resistance at 1808 that has been holding for a while now has been exceeded out of hours albeit not by much. If that holds true this morning then I still expect 1814 will be seen which could tally with the FTSE nearing that 6700 level and the Dax retesting 9400, possibly the 9440.

Not that you can ever accurately pick tops but these levels across these 3 indices are worthy of note. 6700 FTSE, 9440 Dax, 1814 S&P.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

My gut feel for today, as long at 6647 holds as support is for a rise to test those upper levels mentioned above around the 6680/6700 area. If 6647 breaks then 6628 and 6615 look like supports. All being said and done, its Friday, the US has a half day so we may be fairly flat lined a bit today. I do feel that initially we will get a bit of a rise, especially as the bears could have really gone to town yesterday on low volume. The 30 minuet EMAs aren’t giving much away so we are at a fairly crucial point, if 6647 holds then we get the rise, if it breaks then we could dip to 6628 fairly quickly. Might try some speculative longs at those support levels – 6628 and 6613 though I haven’t included them in the trade plan below as they would be punts.

129 Comments

  1. If we can get 6680 today, I can finally get out of this dreaded long with a tiny bit of profit. Then can have the weekend to rethink and act accordingly.

  6. Finally out of this long. Best not to be greedy while been in loss all week. no positions open. Profit of £4 LOL :D. bear in mind I was at -£400 two days ago

      1. you bet my friend. Can enjoy the weekend now. Literally felt like I was protecting my money with my life this week. Better making nothing than losing something

      1. I regret, because later I saw an H&S formation in 15 minute chart, which is beginning to fade away with this high at 6676. It had a target around 6618.

    1. stop looking at hourly its stupid.
      but what i do see is that we are in a range bound scneario…
      previously i was looking for a big dip for correction.
      I think the big dip will be towards back to 6630ish and then a bullish rally from there.
      But before the rally happens we will be seeing a couple cycles of 6630ish-6700ish.
      Atleast thats what i can interpret from my indicator fluctuating soo much when it shouldnt

    1. I am actually starting to agree with that as well… Think we may still see 6610 level… Expecting DAX & US Markets to start correction into next week. Maybe that FTSE doesn’t fall as hard as its already been languishing way off highs… But alternatively it could get spanked just as hard. We’ll see.

  15. No. Only 6618 if I see it. Now I’m looking for a break at this Broadening falling wedge from OCT.31. It has been kissed again today the top line. To many kisses and we know how it happens

  16. The 3rd candle doing exactly the same, as I mentioned 2 days ago in Twitter. Consolidation. Monday will be the turning point or not

  17. If you look at daily chart, you see how the range is shrinking, comparing with NOV.13 and after.

  18. looks like a perfect short lol only went like half a point against me haha.
    i probably will let it run and not take it out at 6658

  19. what happened to “oh black friday markets go up guaranteed”….lol
    I think we might get a bounce back to 6675 (need to make a decision shall i close my short at 6658 and re-enter at 6675 ….

  22. this level would be a key for a turning point in FTSE for the coming weeks, if we close here

  25. Bulls will only hold over till the weekend. Reckon tuesday is where we get the drops, I’m expecting a long lower type candlestick to form next month, so early drops then the rally!

    1. WHat is happening in Tuesday for this drop you are telling ? You expect a lower candle for next month. But December is in average positive month, with follow trough in January

  26. i dont get excited over 10pips lol just looked like the market was moving …my target was 19pips cus i knew most likely there will be a bounce.

  27. Definitely these FTSE is very different from major peers today. Is the so called light volume that seems to have more impact in these lagging indice ?

  30. PMS… Look up long lower type,,,beginning of the month it drops to finish up strongly. Monday will have some cash stimulus with the beginning of a new month,etc. Expecting the drop mid week, just personally believe it will be tuesday, as we would have touched key resistances of 6680,6700, DAX 9400. Etc by then

  31. only taken 15 mins of u.s trading for programs to pile back into the long dax short ftse trade. the LAG continues

    1. 😀 f**** FTSE, it was to good to be true. The rhythm came back again. Let’s see how it closes

  32. Gents. My two-penneth… (FTSE) – Open a 2hr chart, compress it so you can draw a decending trend line from 8am stick, 30th October @ 6819 (top). Drawn the downward line to todays point at 6680, and you have it hitting the top perfectly all down. Copy the annotation, and you get a great looking chanel. If I were hitting a button right now in time, it would be SELL ??????

  34. And DAX another all time high 9424 :D. How regret I am of leaving that indice with all those earlier unfilled gaps

  37. ahwab im still short 2 lots (1 lot = 6696 and 1 lot = 6676) holding over weekend (may close 1 lot at 6660 if we hit it)

    1. HOWEVER…i do agree that ftse has become a lot more bullish today (more than ever in last 2 weeks).. im really considering being on sidelines (depending on how we finish today)

  38. Anyhow, sorry to have barged in. Excellent board, always has been. I’m not trading……….. yet, just testing my S&R levels, timeframes etc.. Used to trade a 15/30m for real, then lost the lot! But the longer t/frames 1-2-4hr frames seem better with more pips to be had.
    GL all.

  39. I think the major problem with this indice is it’s liquidity. For instance I noticed that sometimes the spread after 7 am is still in overnight prices.
    I never in my life saw DAX with overnight spreads after 7 am

  40. Hashmash, tbh just trying to get a few more points, looking to sell a high, DOW is rising whilst ftse is dropping, looking to short Monday for mid week bearishness, when we actually get a proper days bullishness. 6700 area is a hopeful, my stop is @ 6668 for my long, after that is hit just looking to find an entry for a short.

  41. kl ahwab….with me i just cant be bothered with this market now…ive got my shorts in so im gonna hold em..last week i got churned like crazy tryna go in/out the market to find a good short opportunity..right now i think i got a decent opening (6686 on average open i think)..gon hold on to it, with a stop for a daily close above 6710.

  45. my thinking posiblity dax and dow might do the dirt on shorters over the weekend by opening sunday night up to stretch long term shorters to the limit and clear out accounts before any move down……….hope not almost streched to the limit already one more move could bust me …….will put in a few more pounds and short again monday to break even now would be a good result for me……. good luck to all

    1. You bet. And who says that 6700 is a target for shorting after, are not at all in to price action/momentum. The most important rule and priority (price action/momentum).
      Which by the way I dismissed today for 2nd priority, when I saw a H&S formation missing a buy at 6648 this morning.

    2. 6680 was an excellent shorting opportunity – missed it =(. Interesting to see what Monday morning comes, might provide more chances =). GN ALL

  51. very ugly close, indeed. Will Monday start the so call rally. I really have my doubts.
    Some say that FTSE always starts December rally in first day of the month and will continue until the end.

    1. normally, but thats because November is where it drops, however we never got that at all this year with the likes of DAX, DOW. Who knows, it could be the ultimate troll and there could be no bearishness. People been saying it last few weeks, to no avail. Personally when it drops one way, then its time to join the ride. Otherwise normally we have a huge spike before decent medium-term drops.

      1. So in your view, where FTSE stands for December ?
        “Otherwise normally we have a huge spike before decent medium-term drops ”
        This will not fit in December average performance

    2. no rally on ftse anytime soon…still need a correction (according to my views)…
      we going to be seeing a slow drift down with a lot of bouncing (like we have seen in last 2 weeks)

  53. Well all FTSE Shorts closed, very happy with that, was shorting from 6660 – 6680 so had a decent average in the end, although was panicking a bit lol. Got stopped on my DAX short for -6 pips, but shorted again at 9421 with a stop now at 9427 so lets see how that pans out into next week. Massively overbought and believe me it will drop fast when it does. Likely a short sharp drop to circa 9250 region followed by new highs again.

  55. Ahwab
    So in your view, where FTSE stands for December ?
    “Otherwise normally we have a huge spike before decent medium-term drops ”
    This will not fit in December average performance

  56. quick drop of 15 points on dax there back below 9400 again but gaining again after a lot of shorters hoped on band wagon

  57. Sell off in the US at the close of a shortened session. Think we will see a bit more drift down for a couple of weeks. Then 2nd half of the month should be up. I will be looking to add at 6600 which looks likely and 6550 is a possible.

  58. Wow, that 31 point spike in the DAX must have wiped out a few stops. A cynic would think that this ‘game’ was rigged 🙂 ; it’s as almost as if ‘they’ know what we are thinking 🙂 … like they ‘know’ what positions we hold and manipulate the market accordingly 🙂

    1. been mentioning this too many times…shorting dax is like playing russian roulette…with a fully loaded gun lol.
      no way in the world shud anyone short dax snp dow gbpusd (these only ones i got my eyes on).
      ftse is downward trend (with a lot of vol meaning alot of range play).
      but will be soon becoming bull

      1. and before people say oh wen is ftse bull?
        NO ONE KNOWS.
        u dont even know if ftse will have a christmas rally…
        why?
        because of same reason of majority of people here saying oh black friday markets rise…all over the news and other chatrooms i hear oh thin volume markets rise…to me it dont make sense.
        if there were such opportunities to make money then i wouldnt be trading 3 times a week, id take all the possible loans out sell my house .. get as much capital dont care if i have to borrow from a local mob boss who wud chop my nuts off if i dont return it…and then just become a millionaire on “black friday” lol.
        My strat paid me off, went against majority (short). This same applies to christmas rally…the way markets are looking yes there prob will be a christmas rally but u dont know when that will be until the market actualy moves!!! u just gotta be good enough to get into it at the start enough of the trend.
        and as geoff said yes, most people here are looking for comfort (n so do i at times, hence why ive started to post a bit less here now lol cus its messing my mentality up)

  59. all these market makers would have to do would be read sites like this one and pull their levers acordingly ……. but no one has mentioned det ceeling in usa which will raise its head again when all xmas rush is over that is when we will get the big drops …….reel every one in first .every thing is rosy in the garden GL

    1. wouldent this be a great opertunity for markets to get every one long for xmas rises then poppthat could raise quite a bit of cash for americas debt problem

  62. Too much thinking and debating on here and it only serves to confuse. One minute long, next short, it’s not condusive to profitable trading.

    You’re looking for comfort from each other to validate your decisions.

    Take responsibilty and trade what you see NOT what you think

    Just my thoughts (welcomed or otherwise) and good luck to all

  64. Well Geoff and Ray, I shall just have to ask for your indulgence! 🙂 I suppose that you do not intend to spark a discussion about the feasibility or likely effects of divorcing ‘thinking’ from ‘seeing’. My ramblings help me at least to sort out my thoughts – I am not sure that weekend posts actually get read!

    The S&P 500 and Dow were remarkably flat over the course of last week; beginning Monday November 25. For example, in the case of the S&P 500, change (close – open) was only -3.1 points (-0.2%) and range (high – low) 13 points (0.7%). Given previous performance, this meant that momentum ran into the buffers. During the week the index crossed into the lower segment of the strongly ascending ϵ-channel, running since October 30. Next Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday will see larger than average purchases of Treasury securities by the Fed, which intervention might well sustain these series for the time being in the face of reduced impetus.

    The FTSE slumped by ≈50 points last Tuesday, since when it has failed to revive to ≈6700 where it spent much of the previous week. Fed operations next week are not expected to alleviate the FTSE’s slide, which should see the index in the region of 6600 within that period.

  65. Jim – I always read your posts whenever they are posted….haha.
    Anyway whilst what Geoff and Ray say is perfectly sensible we have to remember that we are all displaying a cognitive bias…..that is to seek out the views of people who agree with us. Aware of this I try not to pay too much to forums….whether that be people talking about direction or that they feel the market is rigged against them. Again that is another cognitive bias.

    I do agree with Jim that posting helps to formulate our thinking. In fact we should all do it. Write why we entered a trade and remember that when seeking an exit.

    One thing that may help people is if posters displayed their experience of trading and current pnls. The problem with forums of any kind is that those who post the most will tend to get the most attention regardless of whether they have expertise.

    Anyway my 2 penneth worth….which won’t get read at the weekend.

  66. Monday will be a good day to buy the deeps.
    I see FTSE edging lower Monday to the 6600 region with maybe spike to 6590.
    And Tuesday another spike up. FTSE has been very unstable

  67. Hi Jim, read your post, very sensible analysis and the kind that I do every Sunday (even though I only scalp).

    Javid; great suggestion for guys posting reasons behind trades, traders should be keeping a diary detailing this anyway but it would be beneficial to all of us i think if everyone did this when posting.

    Thoughts?

    1. Looks like it may struggle to make it to 6675… Support at 6650 now becoming resistance. Needs to hold the 6630/35 area or its 6610

  74. Yep Agree – Keep eye out for ECB Thursday. Few punters may fancy buying in shortly if it drops much further in case new LTRO introduced

  75. My short at 6723 looks to be working out.been in this trade for 4 weeks now but worth the wait. 🙂

  76. My short at 6723 looks to be working out.been in this trade for 4 weeks now but worth the wait.

    1. we already have hit this target in the past 4 weeks (Interests been charge since then)

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