6670 resistance today, 6609 support. Which will break? Expecting a dip…

Good morning. Well Fridays prices did indeed dip from that area were we went short after all, and have dropped a bit further to 6630 as I write this, after Fridays close at 6650. It didn’t seem like it was going to at the time which is why I closed it early afternoon – the joys of Friday trading! If the Bianca channels hold today then the dip should hold around 6600 for the moment as we have the bottom of the 20 day at 6595 and 10 day at 6609. So the big question for this month will be , where and if the Santa Rally will appear? Today is the start of the new month so could be slightly bullish as new monthly funds come in.

On a more positive news note for the UK economy, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – the Government’s independent fiscal watchdog – is likely to upgrade its projection for UK growth in 2013 to 1.4pc, from a forecast of 0.6pc in March.

The Dax is still hovering around the 9400 level mentioned, and the S&P tried to go for that 1814 level I mentioned on Friday, nearly reaching it too, hitting 13.6 high Just the FTSE that lagged upwards once again but was quick to join in on the drops once they started.

Gold is still hovering around the 1245 area, though it looks like 1256 is the line in the sand that the bulls will need to break, opening up 1276, possibly 1286. If it holds as resistance then the drop to sub 1200 still looks viable as mentioned last week.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks swung between gains and losses as gauges China’s manufacturing growth beat analyst estimates and retail sales in the U.S. headed for the weakest holiday results since 2009.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 142 as of 2:02 p.m. in Hong Kong, having swung between gains of 0.1 percent and losses of 0.4 percent. About five shares declined for every four that rose on the gauge. More than $8 trillion has been added to the value of global equities this year, the biggest increase since 2009, as central banks took steps to shore up economies worldwide.

“There’s always going to be doubts about whether the growth we’re seeing in the U.S. is going to be sustainable after the central bank starts to taper stimulus,” said Nader Naeimi, Sydney-based head of dynamic asset allocation at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages $131 billion. “While the U.S. market is starting to look frothy, we continue to see value in markets like China and Japan.”

China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, released yesterday, came in at 51.4 for November, matching the 18-month high reached in October and beating 24 of 26 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report for HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics today showed PMI was at 50.8 last month, compared with 50.9 in October.

U.S. Futures

Futures on the S&P 500 Index gained less than 0.1 percent today. The gauge lost 0.1 percent on Nov. 29 as investors sold shares in the final half hour of a shortened trading session, erasing earlier gains fueled by a rally in online retailers amid Black Friday sales.

U.S. brick-and-mortar retailers eked out a 2.3 percent sales gain on Thanksgiving and Black Friday, in line with a prediction for the weakest holiday results since 2009.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

Well Friday played out very well in the end, despite me closing that short a bit early we got the drop form the 6680 area as expected. Was one of those days where it was slow to rise but quick to drop following the USA. There is a bit of initial support at this 6640 area, where Fridays final down arrow terminated, and based on the ProRealTime lines we have a daily support there,  and I expect an initial rise to 6670. That’s a fairly key resistance level as its also around the top of the 10 day Bianca channel, and also tallies with my Dax thoughts above for a rise then dip from 9420ish.

I’ll keep it fairly conservative for the moment with the arrows on the chart below so I can get this email sent out to you as its just past half 7. Will email round further analysis later.

158 Comments

  1. I’m looking at today’s prediction upside down 🙂 , arrows playing out pretty well so far 🙂 [sarcasm intended lol 🙂 ]

  2. Long at 6618 – Closed at 6635.

    I almost held on a lttle longer, but learnt my previous lessons and booked a healthy profit (which in hindsight with it now back at circa 20’s, served me well)

  6. LONG at 6604… Will average down… Happy to start laying in Longs now for Christmas. Expect some form of bounce

  8. closed my short from 6695 for 92pts as although quite possible to see 6550 a bounce is likely and market breadth is starting to show bullish divergence.. Out of market waiting to see how things develop on the weekly timeframe.
    Last month only being average for me, 2 trades 1 loss (-40pts) : 1 win (+92pts), net +52pts for month.

    1. still short from 6696 (1 lot), short 6650 (1 lot – closed at 6605). looking to add more to short at 6640.

      1. Hi Jack, well I don’t mind you following my trades since I do post them on here..however bear in mind I trade a vastly different timeframe to you currently. For example my last trade +92pts was a 3 week long trade. What I would suggest is when I next post i’ll give details of the trade, but I would say determine your own exit parameters. Also consider it a different sort of trade to your normal daily trades, so that you don’t have the stress of managing it in the same “pot”. The “stop” will be a lot larger than you’re typically used to, and so will the target.

        1. Thanks for advice, I really appreciate it. I just like your style of trading and spotting overall trends, it may help me to judge my entries knowing in what trade you are in. 🙂 if you don’t mind of course.

  9. missed the dip from 6661 order was at 6664 ah well…long from 6603 looking to close at around 6630 possibly? Good luck guys

    1. Exactly the same as me. Missed my short order placed at 6664 too. Would have been a nice start to the week, ahwell.

  14. my predictions are playing out well…lets see by end of today if ftse turns into a full bear market or not.
    As i mentioned last week (or weekend cant remember).
    FTSE is in downward trend with alot of vol (meaning range play), so do expect a few bounces, we prob close around 6630-6640 level today.

  15. Long at 6608 to finish the day, 42 pips from today’s short. Looking for the other indices to break fairly soon.

  16. this is playing out perfectly with my indicator now. FTSE will maintain its high vol level with a lot of range plays with slow down drift. longing is not an option right now (unless u playing the medium term).

  17. Im repeating myself again, i bet it will be all over news a month down the line, christmas rally for ftse came late!

  19. Now past support 3 and back to the 60 day SMA ~6660. Are we to expect further falls or is the FTSE suddenly going to rebound?

  20. – Tesco falling due to expected bad results? (tommorow)
    – Supermarkets generally falling due to Lidl doubling UK Stores, Asda reductions etc
    – BP / Shell on the way down due to failing OIL prices?
    – Miners down due to falling prices e.g. Copper, Gold, Silver?
    – Utilities lower due to lack of clarity around Govt interventions.
    + General sentiment dragging things down.

    Further worries about US markets being in a bubble (Shiller etc)

    Some people suggesting 3-5% pullback to make room for Santa Rally?

  26. Long with short stop at 6595,don’t trust this market eerily quiet. if DOW comes down = good fight bulls

  29. Btw Nick is it possible to subscribe w/o paypal?
    Limited time on my hands now so looking to follow your trades.

  37. Just noticed a signal on one my propriety lol 🙂 indicators about to signal (‘flag’ hasn’t tripped as such) a downturn in the FTSE for this week 🙂 These ‘flags’ are pretty good anyway, average out at about a 50% ‘hit’ rate lol Can’t see anything else flagged though.

  39. If this week’s considerable purchases of Treasury securities by the Fed fail to drive the Street, as might now be expected, will that rattle the markets? Sheer panic I should think! 🙂

  40. Is anything going to happen here today? The FTSE has been pootling around support 3 for the past 6 HOURS now!

  41. Can’t see any data for the DOW but just noticed that the S&P is in a similar position to the FTSE (was) just before the fall today in respect of the moving averages. There is also a slight downward indicator from last week’s data too. Hmm… 🙂 Just a couple of observations… probably doesn’t mean anything lol 🙂

  42. FTSE – Weak close. A close below 6600 support as well… I think we’re going lower. Gap Fill at circa 6575 my first buy target

    1. The charts were kind of saying down for the FTSE today… nothing to stop anyone ‘feeling’ it was going to go up though lol 🙂

  43. 20pp riding on the DOW average ope 16067, make or break, tomorrow should be interesting.
    Must be killing it Hashmash -guess you’re only regret now is not piling enough points lol.

    1. ahwab..yeh i got 2 lots running, I shouldnt regret not piling up as the market was quiet volatile..im happy with what im making right now hehe, now that the ftse (on my indicator) is put as full bear market..i should be adding more to shorts soon (just the timing is the hard part 🙁 ).

  45. And i keep mentioning lol no one should be thinking of shorting DAX, DOW or S&P i really dont see where people getting their short entries from for those market…ftse is a pure bull..
    unlessu trading tiny pullbacks in a big trend.. i personally find it crazy because its gambling..just go with the trend and grow ur capital…eventually ull be making more than u can spend (if ur sensible)

  48. 😀 6600 with a spike down to 6590. Said it this weekend. We are at the bottom of the channel. To break it would need something extraordinary to happen, like a crash or big drop in US.
    Now tomorrow a spike up and if a miracle happen, maybe the rally.

  51. And DOW again in my range area. I need to close my charts for not being tempted to click….
    Will I wait for tomorrow ? Surely I need to wait. Morning will be a bit downside, I hope so. Things are beginning to be awesome tempting

  52. Will we have a quick spike down to 15940 in DOW ? It’s quite sometime we do not have one of those

  53. Today is correction day, is what I need to focus.
    Only if I see today 6565 in FTSE I will do it, no matter what. And 15940 in DOW 😀

  56. There is one guy in Twitter that post some FTSE100 videos, that seems more like a gipsy guy, trying to sell “banha da cobra”. He uses the idea (because he has an economic degree), that fundamentals are important and that everyone else who does not understand economics does not have the same perception of the markets, etc, etc and even calls them ignorants.
    This only to say, that now he is bullish in FTSE100 because of the excellent economic data that came out today. So the markets did not seem to react to that, but he focus only the first part and now he predicts tomorrow the FTSE will be bullish 😀
    What a character.
    1st Who does daytrading cannot based his trades in fundamentals.
    2nd If even so he thinks he could do it, he will not be successful, unless he has inside info
    3rd He trades for 20 points. How the f*** a guy that enters and exits in minutes come and say the f*** s*** he saids, only to sell is service and trying to be the best among the others.

    1. Never but never trade on fundamentals is what I say to everyone.
      It’s only noise
      You trade on technicals and FTSE is bearish right now, and surely tomorrow will have somekind of rebounce after a sell of day like the one we have today. It’s more like statistics and probabilities that he came and say what he said

      1. Surely he will have is 20 points tomorrow and will come out and say, Oh Lord thank you for your inside…

  58. Ahwab – yes I’m short DOW from 16081. Got Long FTSE at 6592 for a bounce tomorrow. Or will just average down if drops further. Under 6600 will look cheap come Christmas imho

  62. Ahwab – Great call. Could go further but closed DOW for nice 75pips and have order to add FTSE Long at 6575.

  66. Still got short DOW running, long at 6580, looking for 6600 should get that in the morning. Expecting further decline on DOW open tomorrow.

  67. HERE WE GOOOOOOOO
    My indicator is showing ftse reversal about to come soon…BUT FOR NOW FTSE WILL KEEP MOVING DOWN DOWN DOWN!
    Showing that people starting to close their current position..and as ftse falls more we get closer to it reversing, most likely we will break 6550.
    So far ive been short since 6696

    1. I think we would all appreciate some advance warning, hashmash 🙂 Thanks! 🙂 At the moment my indicator is saying it could go either way lol 🙂

  68. Yes expecting a rise soon but there will be some down days to come first. 6550 will be a good level to add. The slow rally upwards will grind onwards from 16th.

    1. yup def javed thats what i said 🙂
      6550 wud be perfect to open a small long id say (lets see what that day brings first 🙂 )

  69. We had our 2% correction as predicted.
    I can’t see a decline more than 6550, then we will bounce back to Santa rally…

    Gl all

        1. It would definitely be worth going long if if falls to 6000 just before the ‘santa rally’ kicks in… 🙂 In fact, I think I will place an order .. 🙂

          1. … then a ‘santa rally’ to 8,000, 9,000, 10,000+ 🙂 That would make for a VERY Merry Christmas 🙂

      2. dont know why people ask WHERE it will drop to lol..6550 is going to be a good level to build (chance of hitting 6550..QUIET HIGH as we are already at 6683).
        Where will it go to i dont know…for people waitin for santa rally 6550 looks good, but i woudnt be surprised if we hit 6500.
        Im going to wait for my signal..and believe me my signal may even be wen we are back at 6700 lol..or u never know ftse may fall to 6350 and then bounce back up..

  70. Thought I had a good long at 6600 , but Odviously not , but I,m still gonna hang on in there , think 6570 might be the bottom ! ..?

    1. Nobody knows precisely bottom, so I just setup my orders at different levels (10 point diff) 6650 as average for Santa rally.

  72. I use mainly daily and hourly charts. Looks like my original target of 6540 is on the cards, which i shorted at 6723 on 7th Nov. It doesn’t look oversold (rsi of 43 on daily chart) and has breached key resistance on daily chart at 6625 which was high on 19 Sep and also 6630 was a key fibo level for that period. Moving averages are still showing a downward trend. If It drops another 30-40 pips tomorrow next support is around 6410.

  74. Also the last 2 corrections did not exceed 300 points. 6520 would be the 300 point mark from the top.
    If we exceed that, then something very bad is coming and a look alike May would appear with more than 800 points. Would go short with a position placed before it triggers .
    Would place an order at 6470 with target unkown, maybe 6000

    1. sorry one was 310 and the last 342. So more 10-40 points drop. More than that, then is Taper fear and hold to your seats

  75. Big POMO tomorrow

    Tue, Dec 03, 2013 Wed, Dec 04, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 11/15/2024 – 02/15/2031 $0.75 – $1.00 billion
    Tue, Dec 03, 20132 Wed, Dec 04, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 09/30/2019 – 11/30/2020 $3.00 – $4.00 billion

  76. 6560 is the point to start throwing in some big LONGS imho. May get gap fill and a bit first thing but i’d be surprised if we don’t test 6560 today. Still holding Longs, added at 6578 so for 6600 target initially.

  80. closed all positions. Have a sense that Tape fear is coming as I told yesterday.
    Wanna see FTSE emas crossover again. For now is doomed

  81. The other part saids, that we are at junction for a massive rally.
    Mid afternoon US…hmmmm

    1. yea thats fine…look historically – STRONG BULL TREND RSI below 20 for several days 🙂 and then tends to rise abit then die :)…there ofcourse will be pullbacks, cant expect every tick of FTSE to be down hehe 🙂

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