Bearish yesterday to hit the lowest support at 6628 which has held so far

Good morning. Well the FTSE was dragged down by the mining sector yesterday despite the rest of the world holding up pretty well. The Dax stayed above 9300, the S&P above 1800 yet the FTSE slowly dropped all day, scuppering my 2 longs at the pivot and the 6655 support. We actually; reached my lowest support level at 6628 which has held since and overnight hovered around that level. I did think the 6655  trade was going to be ok as after it fired prices did bounce to 6666, but then stalled. Slightly weaker than forecasted US consumer confidence news out yesterday didn’t have to much effect on the S&P either.

Following the mention of Gold on the past 2 emails, it seems quite a few of you trade that and are interested in my thoughts. I don’t trade it very often but that 1228 support levels has continued to hold for the moment. it stumbled at the resistance level mentioned yesterday at 1253, however, I think it could experience a bounce still and if that breaks potentially hit 1268, possibly even 1303 where we have the coral line. The key level for today is 1262 – if it can break and hold above that then I think its going to remain slightly more bullish for the short term.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Oil fell, with U.S. prices slipping for a fourth day, after an industry report showed crude supplies rose for a ninth week. Chinese stocks rallied and the euro strengthened, while Indonesia’s currency declined.

Crude inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, increased by 6.9 million barrels last week, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday, ahead of a government report expected to show oil supplies in the nation increased. Japanese airlines flew through an air-defense zone claimed by China and disputed by Japan today after U.S. unarmed B-52 bombers entered the area. U.S. jobless claims probably increased from an almost two-month low as consumer confidence in the nation unexpectedly dropped.

“Data on balance still looks murky,” Matthew Sherwood, head of investment markets research in Sydney at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $25 billion, said by e-mail. “Most importantly, there was a surprise decline in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed. Chinese stocks gained 0.9 percent, with those in Hong Kong adding 0.7 percent as the city’s benchmark Hang Seng index headed for its highest close since April 2011.

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board’s confidence index fell to 70.4 from a revised 72.4 a month that was stronger than initially estimated, the New York-based private research group said yesterday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 78 economists called for a November reading of 72.6.

Initial claims for U.S. unemployment benefits probably rose to 330,000 in the week to Nov. 28, after falling to the lowest level in almost two months in the previous period, according to the median of 44 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

I think that the 6628 level mentioned as a support yesterday is still key for today and in fact the bottom of the 10 day Raff is at that level too, as well as the 10 day Bianca. With the FTSE dropping but nothing else yesterday we could see a rise today, especially if the mining sector climbs. This area could therefore attract the swing traders who would go long and hold for a few days. We should also have a little bit of consolidation after a trending down day, with a slight bullish hint.

If the 6628 level holds then I expect we will get a rise towards the daily pivot at 6656 (and yesterday’s brief support area). If that breaks then the next target is 6685, then 6711. These are the levels to watch today. The 10 day channels have been pretty reliable so I expect that the bottom of them will hold at around the 6625/30 area, even if tested again later; however should they break today then 6607 and 6582 are supports.

267 Comments

  1. Still holding large short on Dax small short on Dow sideline ftse. If you break those 3 indice down then in reality the only on left with any value is the ftse the other 2 are over brought. Wish I had now longed at 6628.

    1. hmmmm, should I close my long from 6634,3 ? FTSE seems stronger and commodities are rallying… Rio Tinto ….

      1. PMS upto u init 😛
        But yes ftse does look stronger…but u cannot expect for ftse to keep dropping non stop like it did yesterday as well right ?
        The funny thing is GDP comes out 1.5% (prev 1.3%) and yet ftse doesnt react much :S. Hence why iadded to short …but then again my indicator showing less bears today!

        1. my stop for 6658 pos is 6670..will close even before that if 30min candle at 10am doesnt close below..if market moves slowly then 10.30am candle

    1. Yes, but very slowly, it take many seconds between the prices to change. Any reason for that or is it my computer?

  7. Ok, im indicator showing even less bears now..its back at a level which indicates small bearish signal (compared to yesterday which was on the edge of a full bear market)…this is the first time ive seen this indicator change this quickly!! usually takes SEVERAL days to change…

          1. sorry my bad didnt mean break even! unlessthe candle closes on 6658 on the dot lol..meant to say ill still be on profit from that other 2 lots running from 6696

  9. I need to learn start trading an FX as well but im scared as i havent risk my own money on it and the market timings need to be super good!
    GBP/USD i had a bull signal when it was around 1.58..its now 1.628!

    1. Now touching 1.63 on the nose after the FALSE signal, i.e, AFTER GDP came out at 9.30 am there was a 50 pip drop (1.62) before a QUICK 100 pip reversal (1.63). Got a short from 1.62800. Target price 1.62200 minimum by late afternoon when U.S. becomes active, ideally expecting 1.61800 when longs book their profits by the end of the week.

      Careful with Forex, full of false signals and breakouts, and random movements, essential to catch the meat of the trade, easier said than done, especially when supports and resistance have very little meaning when trading forex!

      I see FTSE took a beating yesterday..lol…

      2. Ray thats why i dont trade anything but ftse cus i have been trading it for years and years and i find it very comfortable trading it, whereas other markets i prob traded mini contracts and most likely lost all the trades lool. With FX i always found timing my orders a big issue, just too volatile dont know where to set decent stops, they either too tight or retardedly big…especially during announcements where u see massive drops where u cant even close ur pos and then recovery..used to piss me off soo much lool.
        so now thats why i stick to ftse, quiet rare to see HUGE spikes where u cant even close ur orders.
        But despite that i do keep an eye on other markets but dont trade em and to me GBP USD is a huge bull market crazy crazy crazy.
        Might see little drops but they shud be buys.
        Anyway, FX is all rigged lol as insider trading is allowed due to no regulations

    1. No Assad, I closed my shorts @ 6645 and gone long @ 6650 yesterday, kept overnite, closed @ 6648 in the morning before GDP.
      No position so far, looking to go long above 6657

    2. did u not mention FTSE testing 6610 today ?? does it not hold anymore according to ur charts ?? as 10 day raff is at 6628

      1. scotty im not too sure about 6610 today hence why im taking off 1 lot at 6634..however i do still believe we are in a bear trend still.
        The reason im taking off 1 lot at 6634 is because we might bounce to 6650ish by end of day (if the reports are decent in US).
        However maybe not today we will see 6610, but will during the week.

        1. This does not mean im taking 6610 totally off the table for today .. theres s till a chance hence why i my shorts open

  18. Im much less bearish today. A break above 6680 downward channel would see FTSE much higher. It currently in a downward sloping channel. Euro positive, UK & Germany positive news today. No reason for FTSE to be going lower, esp as FTSE MIB is up 1% !!!

      1. I know if 6630 had broken i would have been all over the bears… But the fundamentals and other markets are just too positive… Nothing is pointing to a sell off. Wish i had now kept hold of my longs, but you have to protect capital when uncertain.

        1. yup exactly. capital is the most scarce commodity, if u can trade without losiong money (just breaking even) then ur a winner

    1. Senu if u look on the charts u can see some kind of support there (more like a turning point to me lol)…which i think has weakend as we already dropped…to me thats more of a resistance now

  24. There has to be a test of 10 day Raff once today may be before or just after dow open. Any1 agree with tht ??

  25. lool dont know why but i keep thinking of the miley cyrus song “wrecking ball” and relating to ftse..maybe ive just been watching too many vines and memes

    1. lol senu its funny every time u posted “added to long” my indicator jumps up by 1% towards bearish side

  31. Have a stop at 6624.
    Moved from b/e, because FTSE likes to double bottom at some point. And I will RISK to loose to bet it will bounce from 6630 again.

  32. FTSE likes to test, from where it was when it bounced from 1st time. If it breaks there, then I will buy at deeper, much deeper level

  33. FTSE is still heading neatly down in the 2 day channel – no sign of a break out to the upside as of yet!

      1. Holding on regardless till friday where there will be indefinite bullishness. There has never been a negative Black Friday, it will be the start of another bullish run till Christmas. I think somewhere Javed is probably piling it on at this point…

        1. ahwab again ,my question is…if its soo guaranteed then why dont u gather as much money as u can every year and long on that only friday to make a killing?

        2. Haha Ahwab,

          Yes I haven’t posted much. Not a great deal to say and have been busy working on my Hedge Fund DDQ and talking to a few seeders – but hey that is a long term project. Also a bad few weeks for a Spurs and English crciket fan…..so laying low from all the jubilant goners here.

          Expected bit of a dip in November (probably said that around mid October..if not earlier…haha). Nothing drastic and it has come. Now it’s coming close to the time to batten down the hatches and don’t do all that much. The last full trading week prior to Christmas is almost always positive as is December as a whole.

          So I am still in buy the dips mode and if that dip happens to be 6600 or better still 6550 then thank you very much Santa baby….hurry down the chimney to me.

          GLA

  38. Seems to be following this downward channel really neatly… touched the top at 11:15, then again at 12:15… waiting to see if it breaks to the upside. Hmm.

          1. Only joking… lol just wondering whether to go long now. It is moving out of the 2 day downward channel now.

      1. It isn’t really a break… just a slight indicator of upward pressure… if it was obvious it would already be too late 🙂 … it could fall further or it might suddenly shoot up… who is to say? :-0

          1. Still downward on this channel, although now from the outside/upside… so no clear signal either way… 🙂

    1. if pivot is tested and doesnt hold for atleast 30 mins im adding more short
      (AFTER US DATA IS RELEASED THAT IS)

  44. Long at 6650, 6640, waiting for 6625 and 6600 if they hit, will keep hem and see how things work out today.

    1. If we hit 6625, then we are doing a lower from yesterday, meaning we still do not reach this bottom and more deep will come

        1. I know that, but we will reach the up again. I see a 1%, max 2% correction before we climb towards the end of the year, so from yesterday I say we have some more downside to come, but not much. FTSE has been very unpredictable of late, so my longs are just in case. If I loose a few points it’s not going to hurt my overall position 😉

      1. 1.duarable goods down to -1.9% (ex trans is up ..at least the estiamte is)
        2. jobless claims up…
        3. retuers confidence is up (releasing at 14.55) but then again confidence yesterday dropped.

  46. With the Fed meeting on Dec 17 I don’t think Santa Rally beginning till then .. having said that don’t put any weight on tht as
    I am small stake trader … trading hasn’t bee good since May this yr since Mr Ben spoke ..
    I had to switch to small trades then onwards .. Hoping for this tapering to finish n we can be back with reports and technicalities more than rumours

    1. scotty i think its correct…i personally think thats around when santa rally is starting or maybe even later…but currently its a bear market (very volatile though)

  48. This data im interpreting as
    Better jobless claims = tapering coming sooner (Negative on markets)
    durable goods bad = economy losing growth (negative on markets)

          1. Lol yes. More of a joke, but wouldn’t surprise me… Although FTSE has been detached from the US markets for a while now.

          1. yea thats what i was gonna say…theres no connection with US and FTSE..currently…like i mentioned it was something like around 9th nov
            where in a couple days S&P was up 2% and ftse down 2%

    1. I think he has finally become a patient, rather than trading god knows how many times. Either that or he`s bankrupt lol -.-

        1. i feel bad for jack two..u can see the frustration he is in!
          “Lord if ur there move the market up!”

  50. Reuters confidence is to be worse … if not im closing out 2lots of shorts (thats if the market hasnt already closed them out for me).

    1. man im soo itchy to trade other markets….dow n snp incredibly bull markets same with GBP/USD (which should have a pull back for buying opportunities)
      gold is a total bear

      1. Got a long on GBP/USD 5pips lol. I always have an eye for forex trading opportunities. But will NEVER day trade them, far too volatile. That and the Crude lol.

  52. u know im thinking up opening a small spreadbetting account with £5000 and trading like 30 markets minimum bets purely using my indicator for medium term.
    like AUD/USD i see becoming a bear market

  54. I HAVE CLOSED 2 lots short for roughly 15 points profit each, as the market has been doodling for last 4h-5hours and might be a small pull back before confidence report.
    Still have 3 lots short running

  55. culprits BP et all and financials not really up either.. miners also struggling . Usual I think for the last week we always say today is different but doesn’t seem so !

  56. Closed my 6708 short far too early the other day, and haven’t traded since then.

    However I have just gone long at 6642. Hopefully things are about to turn.

    2. lol its funny how u say if 6660 is broken then we have 6666…well duh most likely as its only 6 points!!!!

      1. Yes, I’m talking about intraday resistances, that could be potential areas for reverse

      1. although still in a downward channel from yesterday 16:15, although with not quite a steep a gradient as the two day (breached) channel.

      1. i dont know where im gonna long…gotta wait for my indicator to flip.. i mean if it flips at 6800 ill long then loool so no REAL target for long….
        but if i had to take an estimate prob around 6600-6550 (assuming ftse falls that is)..if not then my indicator prob flip around 6750-6800 to bull market (thats a pure guess)

  69. Out of this long. Now waiting for another dip or a bounce trough that bullish expanding wedge

  70. im done for the day…wont be opening more shorts (too risky).
    Still have 2 short lots running (avg open 6683, SL set to 6683 as well)
    GL everyone! prob still be on here every now n then to see whats going on!

    1. I did not say that. I only booked profits from 6634, but still holding other positions above at 6676 level.

  73. Looking in to my charts, if we hold here and not close below in 4 hourly chart, then yesterday was non-event

    1. If we go to 6700, then we broke that bullish broadening wedge from the Oct. highs and expect further rise

  77. bears are dieing..i went from a significantly strong bear to now weak baer signal.
    if we stay around 6650s like this for next couple days we prob got bull trend.

  79. MY wish for FTSE now, is to have that EMAs crossover again in 4 hourly chart.
    Then you will see how this rocks

    1. Don´t forget we broke it in NOV.7. Since then we have been in a bearish trend, looking to buy dips

      1. Risky one in my view. We never know. But I was thinking that at close we could see a bounce, because of the overall day.

  83. ok…so now (who probably is own to be a shorter lol) is now looking for dips to buy..have closed 1 more lot..and now only have 1 lot short running.
    My indicator has dropped quiet a bit today signalling a reverse coming quiet soon.

  84. I joined you Hash. Short at 6660. Holding overnight looking for 6600 or less this week or next. Daily bearish engulfing candle. Also China v Japan. Commode, esp Oil, is getting smashed which isn’t good for FTSE. Feel more comfortable on the bear side, those longs last night were not comfortable. Want a minimum of 6600 before scaling in some longs for Christmas

    1. Andy im not as bearish as before though..i only have 1 lot short running (compared to 4 lots before)
      Will keep to updated here.
      My view is still bearish (not as bearish as before)
      But looking for a decent dip to close shorts n go long.
      Really hope we hit 6600 because that will be a nice place to build a long

      1. i want to be in for 10Lots long by the time we hit 6700 so i can catch another 100points with 10lots loool that be nice to catch by year end haha 🙂
        and i think we will be exceeding 6800 be year end tbh

        1. see i always talk with probabilities
          There is a relativly small prob that we might see 6600 tomorrow..why? because its not hard for ftse to drop freaking 40 points lol.
          But i wud put a higher prob on ftse dropping a bit or moving sideways.
          And i always plan out moves several steps ahead..i have a bearish view right now but im looking for buying opportunities (while having shorts open). Because u always have to move much faster than the market to stay ahead of it otherwise the opportunity is gone.
          Most of the time (not ALL the time) positions i put on today will be for tomorrow.

  86. Yep we will see. Expecting DAX & US markets to sell off a bit over coming weeks, can’t expect FTSE to rise strong whilst they are falling IMHO. Even though FTSE has been disconnected from thei movements. I will start building some longer term long positions in hopefully at 6600 & 6550 levels

    1. We have at the most a bullish harami. But dismissing all of that we are at beginning of a déjà vu from Nov.13

  88. Just got this of a forum

    Inst Investor sentiment survey just turned outright bearish for the first time since 2011. At 41.1% differential between bulls and bears, this indicator shows 30 year low bearishness. while i cant make the case for impeccable market timing results w it, i can contend it represents the true bullish market sentiment levels.

    1. You’re picking up lots of nice little points while i’m just holding my long from 6680 and 6690. Envious of you lol

      1. Yours is unfortunate and rare. I am just lucky to close the previous day @ 6696. Nothing brilliance involved, so no reason to envy

  90. Grrrr…. wish I had played this today 🙁 Took of just at the top of the 2 day channel on 6640, then up to 6656 at the top of the 1 day channel. That is like 16 points down 🙁 Anyway, hindsight is an exact science and if I had went long no doubt the damned FTSE would have tanked lol 🙂 Anyway, hope you all got lucky 🙂

  91. Tomorrow’s Pivot, Support and Resistance for the FTSE:

    R3- 6692.266667
    R2- 6678.203333
    R1- 6663.836667
    Pivot- 6649.773333
    S1- 6635.406667
    S2- 6621.343333
    S3- 6606.976667

          2. I was tempted to reenter at 6638. I received an alert, but was not comfortable. Because my goal now is to buy in another FRESH dip, if it goes in that direction. This one has already been visited and I do not like when insists with those levels over and over again. It only means new lows.
            In the meantime I think we are going to upside…

    3. I think I should play this game like you, just pick a few points instead of holding all day along only to be stopped. Yes, your strategy is perfect for this kind of markets :). I am expecting same kind of movements in market tomorrow, so keep posting your entry/exits as you always do. 🙂

  93. I think DOW is going to visit again the 55 EMA at 15995 4 hourly chart, after another bounce. It has been doing this for a couple of times after new highs. I was expecting yesterday that to happen-…

  94. Closed Shorts at 6640, will look for a higher entry to short again. Probably tomorrow if we get gap fill back to circa 6650 region

    1. thats what im looking for aswell…freaking indicator went bearish again. swear to god first time im seeing this indicator fluctuate this much!
      back to being an “ok” bear market.
      still have 1 lot short running from 6696 prob build on it tomorrow at preferably 6663 if not then in its 50ish

    1. …FOREX are in no way related to the indices. The only exception being when reports/data come out. Otherwise you should never use indices as an indicator to trade forex.

      1. I know, but in the past eur/usd up was risk on to markets. But after I lost track of that. And even so I hedged once successfully

  96. My best trade with FOrex was in EUR/USD, when I managed to buy in a touch of a ascending trend line. What a trade, it lasted for 5 days and with small risk capital had a great return in the 3 digit percentage. Will never forget that one.

  98. ftse becoming to aggressively volatile im not betting huge amounts on shorts any more (at most ill be willing to hold is 2 lots now).
    my indicator is just fluctating like crazy, i think a lot of big players in markets are adjusting there portfolios.
    Near the close i went from strong bearish to weak bearish. and now looking at it…its signalling more bearish signal (not strong as before though).
    ill probably keep that short from 6696 running as far as i can, whilst using another lot to catch small points.
    Tomorrow prob try short (optimally from 6663)..if we dont reach that then 6650ish

    1. What is your indicator…a pendulum? There will always be the possibility of no bear, you have to accept that. Look back at the last few years there have been bearishness in november, but early december/end of november its just been a constant rise. But then you have to consider there hasn`t been any real drop on DAX and DOW since September. Out of curiosity do you use Bollinger Bands?

      1. ahwab.. the reason im pissed of is because this is not ur average pendulum indicator lol
        first time ive seen it go up n down soo much.
        for example on GBPUSD it’s been bullish since august 18th!! and still going crazy strong bullish!
        and on S&P is been bullish since late oct/early sept and right now showing still strong bulls!
        ftse used to be the same started getting fked since last week.

      2. its swinging between heavy bears to light bearish market. and the only reason i can think is that a sharp bounce is coming.

      3. and no i dont use bollinger bands.
        I use my own indicator for deciding which direction to bet..
        AND mainly
        RSI + Pivots for entry timing.
        (may look at stochs macd and par just to see how they reacting but they dont influence my decisions TOO much)

  99. FOR the ones going short, recommend looking at my new chart and think twice.
    But it’s always good some short squeeze

  100. Ahwab, out of interest are you looking to hold these longs till end of year then if all remains constant and we reach the general predicted target around here of 6800?

    1. yes. But will offload possibly a bit on friday where we will get the indefinite rise. Buy the dips is still the consensus.

  102. We’ll see minimum of 6630 retested tomorrow in my opinion. If that holds then could be interesting. Remember there WILL be a correction, even a minor one is DAX & US markets, they can’t rally over Christmas when they are all at ATH levels already lol

    1. If there is a dip i believe will we see it in the first week of december, so next tuesday. Will see how my long fares this week.

  103. THe minimum I see for this possible deep is 6560ish level (50%fibo) and also acting as strong line support coming from May

  107. When do you see 6560 @PmsTrade ? Not this week I hope !! . Have too many long positions open around 6660-6680

  108. Plan for today. If there will be a bit of a drop today will go long around 6635 till 6660 with a stop at 6625. If no drop then no trade today

  109. After closing my short for +18 yesterday at 6640, my order at 6653 hit last night so im back short. Have another order at 6661 and Stop at 6675. Target 6610 level next.

  113. like the trade senu I think the bulls want 400 handle on the dax.. nuts while as always there is always a culprit for the ftse.. weighing it down .

    1. no
      its same as 2 days ago..quiet bearish.
      i got a 1 lot short lined up for 6664 and another one for 6679

    2. its 4% over its thresholded value for a short signal…once its 28-30% over its thresholded value it shows a STRONG trend.
      We hit roughly 15% a couple days ago but it didnt hold for long.

  116. my 6664 short has kicked in..
    if we dont close below at the finish of 10am candle im out.
    I will then aim for a short at 6679 if that dont work (with stop at 6700) then finished for the day (and will have closed all my short positions).

  117. On a second thought …. fuk it..im not shorting at 6679..
    ill hold my short from 6664..if 6679 hits im out closing it.. and finish trading for the day as i have an extremely day ahead and need to be focused.
    will still have 1 lot short running from 6696 from a couple days ago.

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