Another go from the bulls?

Good morning. Well there was some movement in the FTSE yesterday wasn’t there! Where did all that come from? The good news was that it bounced between the 2 levels mentioned, 6585 and 6530, and from the emails I see a few of you picked up points, however the initial dip was a bit deeper than expected so my initial long got stopped out, however the short order at 6580 came good for +50. We are still flirting with the bottom of the Bianca channels at 6530/6550 with the bulls not able to really build any gains. I wouldn’t be surprised if as mentioned yesterday we get a bit of a further dip and then the bounce later today/tomorrow. Ed Milliband continues to upset shares with his socialist rhetoric – house builders were the latest in the line of fire over the land grab proposals, hot on the heels of the energy companies losing market value over the threat of freezing prices the day before. Wonder who it will be today!

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks fell for a third day, trimming the biggest monthly advance on the regional benchmark index since January 2012, as industrial and health care companies retreated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.3 percent to 139.97 as of 11:34 a.m. in Hong Kong. The measure climbed 7.8 percent this month through yesterday, touching a four-month high on Sept. 23, after the Federal Reserve maintained the pace of its stimulus and data showed China’s economic growth is stabilizing.

“If some of the froth comes out of the market then I will be adding to positions, but in the short term the markets are vulnerable,” Nader Naeimi, the Sydney-based head of dynamic asset allocation who helps manage more than $130 billion at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., said by phone. “The market has gone up a long way on the back of the liquidity expansion and we now need to see some real improvement in earnings.”

US Futures

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent. The measure yesterday completed its longest slump this year as Wal-Mart retreated and concern grew that a political showdown over government spending poses a threat to growth in the world’s largest economy.

Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

Volatility was certainly back yesterday with some good movements but we are still hovering around the bottom of the Bianca channels, whilst the Raff channels are short term (10 day) down, and slightly longer term (20 day) still heading up. The latter has support as 6500 so I feel that any bearishness will have support around that 6490/6500 area. If prices can break the daily pivot at 6555/60 today then we should see a test of yesterday’s high around the 6588 area, but on the flip side, if 6525 (yesterday’s low) breaks then we should get 6500/6490. It actually a little tricky to call today, however with the vast majority of retail investors looking at shorting indices and longing gold, I expect that it may well do the reverse over the next few weeks. If the 6590 area breaks then we could be on for a decent rise over the next few sessions. On the 30 minute chart the EMAs are just about crossing over, hence the dip back to the 10ema after the cross as per the arrows.

69 Comments

  5. Just waiting for the US to open to give some direction for the final 2 days of the quarter. Markets generally have been a little weak. Not expecting huge movements but looking to trim some of the 3% and 2 % gains in the Dow and FTSE respectively by cob tomorrow.

    1. No, Senu, I am playing a cautious guy today and so missed the morning short (it was too slow) and apparently the current long (I was waiting for 6522). When I realized I missed 6538 it was late at 6543, so I didn’t have guts to put a long. A bit annoyed I missed out on this long. It didn’t have any usual double bottom (the second bottom went a bit lower then the first one so it confused me). Now we are in a long channel and nothing I can do now. There will be other days.
      Plus who knows how it will react in an hour, maybe double bottom?

  16. I think we are in for another pump and damp situation over the pond and the morons over here will follow the pump again……

  18. Great that I come out of this little short around b/e and took long. Got at least some scalp today +10. Better small profit then drop to b/e. GLA

  26. Senu i keep wide stops, still alive almost breaking after shorting from 6580, total pips is 6. Nirmally i do from 3-5 max but on occasions like this i know ill get some profit out if greater risk

  28. On fast rises i normally switch to the minute graph for the quick retrace and managed to nab it at 6578, hopefully we will see 6540 again 🙂

  31. Dow/1 hr – LinReg 100 has not long bottomed out. Major volatility, but downside potential likely limited in the short term, putting aside fiscal cliff worries; the picture is subject to radical revision. No doubt, if the Dow maintains its distance above trend the FTSE will duly follow.

    1. Coming to end of the quarter. We got the key level of 6517 and bounced a bit.
      Looking for 6480 next by Monday which will be a good level for a long.

    1. always a tight stop though 😉 Gave myself a pot that im allowing myself to ‘gamble’ with but changes my amounts all the time (usually lower),

      1. i’m also gambling…been gambling since jan. was £18k down at one point but just £800 down as of today. closed £50/point short too early today, part @ 6547 and part @ 6524. would be in profit if i’d held my nerve :/ – p.s. I don’t recommend gambling as a strategy as I’m just as likely to lose my account as to breaking even

        1. hoping for a bounce so i can short again..anyone think it’ll come? or, do insiders know of impending good news before market open monday?

Comments are closed.