Good morning. Nice bounce yesterday off the 6550 level however the bulls failed to gain any ground above the 6585 area and as expected had a long hard slog to get that rise. Still, it played out as planned and hopefully you picked up some points too. With it being such hard work for the bulls yesterday, and despite the strong bounce on the S&P I think its probably best to have a slightly bearish bias now. We are still nudging the bottom of the daily Bianca channels, whilst the 10 day Raff is firmly pointing down. Short the rallies today I think! US consumer confidence came in worse than expected yesterday to a 4 month low, maybe the start of the good news about how well the various economies are doing starting to wane. News seems to go in cycles whereby you have a run of good, then a run of bad and so on.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell for a second day, paring the best monthly advance since January 2012 for the regional benchmark index, after U.S. consumer confidence slumped in September to a four-month low.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent to 140.21 as of 12:30 p.m. in Hong Kong, with nine of the 10 industry groups on the gauge declining. The measure dropped 0.6 percent yesterday. It climbed 7.9 percent in September through yesterday, on course for the best month since January 2012, after the Federal Reserve maintained the pace of its stimulus and data showed China’s economic growth is stabilizing.
“U.S. consumer confidence was down, albeit slightly, but enough to rattle already frayed nerves,” Andrew May, a sales trader at CMC Markets in Auckland, said in an e-mail. “As we’re in the last week and month of the quarter, expect to see traders continue to take a little more profit off the table as they reposition themselves.”
US Futures
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed after the gauge fell 0.3 percent yesterday amid concerns over U.S. budget talks and economic growth as investors weighed prospects for easing tensions in the Middle East. The index has declined 1.6 percent over four days after reaching an all-time high of 1,725.52 as the Fed refrained from cutting stimulus.
The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence slumped in September to a four-month low and a separate report showed a gauge of manufacturing in the region covered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond shrank in September.
Outlook
The FTSE failed to break through the 200ema yesterday so whilst we picked up a decent amount of bull points, the failure at 6585 meant 6600 was a big ask. I suspected that the bulls would struggle and they did. That 6585 is the line in the sand, and if the bulls could break that then we should get 6600 and the 6615 mentioned yesterday. Initially today there is support at 6557 but if that breaks and the bears really get control then the fib lines at 6533 and 6517 become likely targets. It looks like we will test 6555 pre market of at the open which might see a small bounce but I think the bulls will have their work cut out today to get above 6585. We have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6548 today and are currently flirting with the bottom of the 20 day at 6568. If the 10 day breaks then I think we will drop to the 6517 area, then possible bounce back later in the week. I have gone for an initial early long at 6557 with a stop below that 10 day channel for an opening trade, but then a short off yesterday’s resistance and the 200ema/ProTrend channel at 6580ish.
FTSE is gone up 52 points in the last 45min!!! On what?????
Bit bonkers eh! Was the dip the stop hunt, or this rise?
Nick , shorters trapped, there is no reason for being in red.
the rise then i reckon!
had a long from 6547 with (profit capped at 6562) nearly stopped out when it fell to 6535…as soon as i noticed this crazy rise i tried to cancel the profit cap but it was too late 🙁
So I don’t get it, did you keep this long? Look it went up to 6588?
my limit profit got triggered and my position closed-i could have gotten a lot more points 🙁
first daily retrace to the 20sma after the weekly buy signal.
Doesn’t it actually looks bullish?
But puts me off going long looking at this weird pull back, very suspicious.
Missed all these tribulations as I had a worker in a computer room. Could not do it in front of him. Which regret. I was thinking about long at 9 o’clock the worker came.
Gees my nerves are wrecked today
Like a whores drawers today!
🙂
Gone long @ 6556 with day low SL, anyone with me ?
You will be laughing, but actually I did. I thought I was the one in the universe. LOL. But Stop loss 10 points, Not MOVING.
Cheers Jack, I took 30 pts long this morning ;-), so, i can hold 20pts SL (day low)
not sure any more
could be another leg down
I did go short 6556.3
nothing serious, just on b/e for fun.
There could be some movement from 12:30 to 1:30, I will wait till that time if my SL is not hit.
good fun
Got my money, short scalp, tried my forces.
Nick, has mentioned about the support @ 6557 , it works 🙂
Supports just like rules are here to be broken…I and that one is just gone..lol
If we are lucky we will get a bounce to 6567 or 6552-56 for more short, It looks like it’s going to break down today. Looking at Nick’s arrows it just pushed a bit higher, that’s all.
Huge Christmas tree on 10 min. Last time when it happened to me it caused a huge drop.
i’m short ftse100 from 6574. should i close now at 6542 anyone?
closed @ 6543
Good decision.
thanks Jack…pure luck.
… my opinion is that any shorts will be “short lived” for what its worth this is a classic set up, all the news about taper and budget defecits is essential to prepare to shaft the shorts 🙂
best risk reward trade in weeks, stop under last weeks low & 20dma
Looking out for 6400 for the long in conjunction with the bullishness end of the month/start, cash input.
Closed my long @ cost 🙁
FTSE 1/5 mins has developed a downward tilt again …
Nick, 6533 supports well
Good 15 pts 🙂
Market like the weather nowadays
Buy opportunity ??? ESP. Support holding around 5320-30 any thoughts
6529-30 ipad…..
America goes bankrupt on 17/10, I expect this to be a black cloud for a while.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/new-debt-limit-deadline-is-oct-17/2013/09/25/edf24be0-25e3-11e3-b3e9-d97fb087acd6_story.html
Thank you I came out of that one ITM.
Buy on dips, all panic news will be resolved, but for a while they will flood it to invite more shorts into the system.
At the moment, best position is to be on the sidelines
A short term view of the Dow.
Right click – Open in new window
http://imageshack.us/a/img849/5716/oq61.png
Hi Jim,
Thanks for posting – Whats the indicator below the price chart ??
Thanks
Hi Hugh,
It’s one of mine! I’ll send it to you if you like 🙂
It just show us again that those MORON traders in Europe cant think for themselves as the Yankees do as usually pump and damp!!…lol
Getting some good dips on the Dow. Have to see whether it will test 15100 by the end of the week. On the FTSE would equate to possibly 6450….both decent levels for a 3 month long, but we might go lower short term in October.
Jim
That would be great if you could.
I think you’ve got my email address.
Yes – will do Hugh.
Last posters name…..WHO FLUNG DUNG…. SALUDOS CARRERUS
Invation to shorters on dow again……if i had held on to mine i would be near break even … you never know