7200 holds for the run back up to 7300 | Key level now | US China trade rumbles on | 7296 resistance | 7230 support

FTSE 100 outlook prediction analysis for 22nd November 2019

The FTSE 100 had a rocky session overall, on the ropes for much of the morning before clawing back some of its losses as the day went on. The bulls managed to defend the 7197 support level and we got the rise to the 7240 level but it wasn’t till the evening that the bulls pushed on further, helped by cable dropping and the US holding steady.

The biggest riser was British Gas owner Centrica, which rose 6.62p, or 9.11pc, to 79.32 after a trading update that showed a steady performance and unchanged outlook. Jefferies analysts said the update was reassuring following several profit warnings over the past few years. The second-biggest riser was British American Tobacco, which was handed a boost after US regulators dropped a proposal to force companies to cut the amount of addictive nicotine that is put in cigarettes. A spokesman for the agency responsible said it had not abandoned the plans, however, and analysts warned the issue could come back into focus after next year’s presidential election. Shares rose 110.5p, or 4pc, to £29.71.

Moral Authority

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sent Donald Trump legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters, and the president is expected to sign the bill into law despite Chinese warnings of retaliation. Trump plans to sign the bill, according to a person familiar with the matter, even as his administration tries to finalize the first phase of a long-awaited trade deal with China. Pelosi acknowledged the economic risks of angering the world’s largest emerging market, but she said if the U.S. doesn’t “speak up for human rights in China because of commercial issues, we lose all moral authority to speak about human rights anywhere in the world.”

Markets Steady

Asian stocks looked set for a modest rebound Friday as traders awaited further details on U.S.-China trade discussions. Treasuries and U.S. shares dipped. Futures pointed higher in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The S&P 500 Index fell for a third day, the longest losing streak in almost two months, but remained within 1% of a record high. The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed to 1.77% while the dollar edged higher against most G-10 counterparts. Elsewhere, oil climbed to a nine-week high as traders latched on to optimistic signals on trade. Gold slipped.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The bulls managed to defend the 7200 level yesterday and we should now get the leg up to the 7296 daily resistance level. If that does hold then I am thinking that the next leg down will head down towards the 7100 area and a bounce there to start another leg up in December. That’s a bit big picture for the next few weeks, but for today I am looking at shorts around that 7300 area.

The 30min chart has gone bullish with the bounce off 7200 gaining some traction and now has support to start with today at 7254. However we may well see a dip a bit lower to test the daily pivot and the 30min coral which is now green at the 7231 level.  The 2 hour chart has also gone bullish now, with support at 7245 to start with today and with yesterdays close at 7238, I do think this area will hold as support if seen.

If the bears were to break below 7230 though then a drop down to yesterdays low at 7197 and also the daily support at 7180 is possible, along with the fib level at 7186. Below this then there is 7164 for daily support but unless its news driven I am not thinking that we will shed 100 points from here. Of course being Friday it will probably be odd so be mindful of anything!

If the bulls were to push past the 7296 level then there is 7311 as a daily trend line that they will need to break and 7320 as the daily resistance above this. 7362 is the 10 day Raff channel top and if they managed to break R3 at 7324 that would likely be tested.

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