FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th September 2020
Here are yesterdays main events:
- 695,000 payrolls lost since start of pandemic – Figures from the ONS showed that nearly 700,000 people have lost their jobs in the UK since March
- Unemployment rate ticked up modestly to 4.1pc in July
- Labour market crisis deepens as furlough scheme begins to wind down
- Benefits claimant count continues to climb
- Record quarterly decrease in employment for 18 to 24-year-olds
- Chinese imports fall but retail and production figures beat expectations
U.S. Tariffs Violation
The World Trade Organization undercut the main justification for President Donald Trump’s trade war against China, saying that American tariffs on Chinese goods violate international rules. A panel of three WTO trade experts on Tuesday said the U.S. broke global regulations when it imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018. Washington has imposed levies on $400 billion in Chinese exports. But the ruling failed to dissuade Washington of its “America First” trade policy and will do little to alter the current trade environment. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said the WTO report released Tuesday “confirmed” Trump’s aggressive foreign policy that has sought to dismantle multilateral organizations like the Geneva-based trade body. While the ruling handed China a victory on paper, it means little since the U.S. already hobbled the WTO by dismantling its panel that oversees the appeals process.
Market Open
Asian stocks look set for a muted start to trading Wednesday as investors await a Federal Reserve meeting to gauge the extent of central bank support for the economic recovery. Futures pointed to modest gains in Australia and Hong Kong, and were little changed in Japan. S&P 500 futures opened relatively flat after the benchmark rose for a third consecutive session, as gains in technology shares helped offset a late slide in financials. Treasuries and the dollar were little changed. Oil rose to its highest in more than a week after economic data from China to the U.S. fueled optimism that factories are getting back to work. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its dovish stance at its policy meeting Wednesday.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Asian stocks were little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited a Federal Reserve meeting to gauge the extent of central bank support for the economic recovery. Crude oil extended gains.
Shares were little changed in Japan, China, Hong Kong and South Korea, while Australia outperformed. S&P 500 futures edged higher after the benchmark rose for a third consecutive session, as gains in technology shares helped offset a late slide in financials. Nasdaq 100 contracts erased earlier losses seen in the wake of news that Facebook Inc. might face a possible U.S. antitrust lawsuit. Treasuries and the dollar were steady.
The bulls managed to push slightly past the 6110 resistance level yesterday to a high of 6125 but it dropped back after that, as the S&P recoiled from the 3420 resistance area again. The bulls managed to keep the FTSE above 6000 and the S&P above 3400 though. The FTSE bulls will look for a rise towards the top of the 20 day Raff channel at 6160 next, and that is just above R1 and the key fib for today so we may well then see a stutter in this area.
We have the Fed latest policy decision today then the press conference from Powell, so as mentioned yesterday we may well see a buy the rumour, sell the news day ahead of this. If the S&P can maintain 3420 as resistance then we may well see a pull back on that for a few more sessions before the bulls reappear in strength in October ahead of the election. The top of the 10 day Raff is at 3440 as well, so not much above where we hit yesterday – keeping an eye on this channel for the moment.
Back to the FTSE and should the bulls manage to break above the 6160 level then next up as resistance is the 6211 level then 6224 for the top of the 10 day Raff. Should we get to this level then short here is worth a go.
For the bears, they will be looking to break the 6030 level, as we have decent support here, from the 200ema, S1 and also the key fib. If we drop down to this initially then I am thinking that we may well see this level hold and a rise back up toward the 6100 area and higher. Below 6030 then S2 is down at 5962 and the bottom of the 10 day Raff at 5940. A move below 6000 will also give the bears a bit of a boost though and we may well start to see more significant slides. The 2 hour coral is at 6049 though and is the line that we held last Tuesday at 5860 and got the climb from so I am expecting any test of this 6050 area (or just below) to hold.
Good luck today – watching 6030 for support, 6125, 6150, and 6211 for resistance.
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