Good morning, I hope you had a nice weekend. Well the 2 longs on Friday took, one struck out (the long at 55), but the 6832 long took and had a decent run, well done if you held for most/all of it! Despite some positive Chinese news with August exports rising 9.4% v 9% expected, imports have dropped and that has seen equity markets dip since the open last night. With Friday putting in a V shaped recovery day, despite a woeful NFP result, “indications” are for more bull, and we are testing the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel again as I write this at 6842, though may well test Fridays low today. In other news, looks like the UK will be brought into the ISIS conflict, the Ukraine ceasefire looks as fragile as very thin ice, and the big news for the next 2 weeks will be the Scottish independence vote.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asia’s benchmark stock index swung between gains and losses as investors weighed data showing Chinese exports rose more than analysts projected last month, while imports unexpectedly fell.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed at 148.47 as of 12:06 p.m. in Hong Kong, amid holidays across the region, after rising and falling 0.1 percent. The gauge advanced 0.4 percent last week on data. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed last week at an all-time high even after a report showed the slowest payrolls growth this year.
“U.S. data has been quite solid and if you get one aberrant number, I don’t think people will change their views,” Richard Jerram, chief economist at Bank of Singapore Ltd., said on Bloomberg TV. “The main focus this week will be Japan and China. There’s a lot of data coming out from there.”
Chinese exports rose 9.4 percent in August from a year earlier, while imports slid 2.4 percent, leaving a record trade surplus of $49.8 billion, according to a government report. That compared with median economist estimates for increases of 9 percent and 3 percent respectively.
“Investors are expecting China’s economy to improve in the second half, but they’re concerned the import numbers today show industrials may not be good enough to support that,” said William Fung, investment manager at Tanrich Securities Co. in Hong Kong.
Regional Gauges
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.3 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index lost 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.5 percent. India’s S&P BSE Sensex index climbed 0.7 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.1 percent. Markets in China, South Korea and Taiwan are closed for a holiday.
Japan’s Topix index rose 0.4 percent. Gross domestic product contracted an annualized 7.1 percent in the three months through June, more than a preliminary reading of a 6.8 percent fall, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 7 percent drop.
Japan Stimulus
“The bounce Japan was looking for after the sale tax increase hasn’t really materialized,” Bank of Singapore’s Jerram said. “It seems the benefits from Bank of Japan policy, from the yen weakening, have largely faded away. It looks like the economy needs more support.”
The blow from Japan’s sales-tax hike extended into this quarter, with retail sales and household spending falling in July. The government signaled last week that it is prepared to boost stimulus to help weather a further increase in the levy scheduled for October 2015.
U.S. Jobs
Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.1 percent today. The U.S. equity benchmark climbed 0.5 percent to a fresh record on Sept. 5 as geopolitical tensions eased and lower-than-estimated jobs data fueled bets the Federal Reserve won’t rush to raise interest rates.
American employers added 142,000 jobs in August, the fewest this year, representing a pause in the recent labor-market momentum as companies assess the prospects for demand. Weak growth in Europe prompted the region’s central bank to step up stimulus measures last week.
The cease-fire intended to stem months of bloodshed in eastern Ukraine is being tested as both the government and the pro-Russian separatists its army has been fighting report violations and casualties.
Presidents Petro Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin spoke Sept. 6 by phone on the progress of the truce, agreeing that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe should monitor it, according to the Ukrainian leader’s website. The next talks on the conflict, which has cost more than 2,500 lives, may take place in a week.
FTSE Outlook
Based on Fridays recovery from the 6830 area, then there is still some bull power around, and the S&P is holding above the 2000 level again. Looking at the 30min FTSE chart, we are just below that rising channel, though wight he daily pivot at 6856, there is a pretty tight initial range, so may see a dip down to the Friday lows. We are also around the bottom of the 10 and 20 day Bianca channels, as well as the 10EMA on daily. All this adds up to the fact that there is fairly decent support around this 6840 area, though if it breaks then 6800 looks likely as the first stop. If it does hold then a push towards 6907 and 6918 look likely early this week.
Hi Nick
You say if 6840 breaks, than 6800 likely, but than you say also FTSE will go to lows of Friday (6827+-) and bounce like the arrows in your chart.
In what circumstances FTSE will dip to 6800 ?
Still holding all my TAT Trades.
As far as charts are concerned – Still nothing really
seems to have changed. Still feel S&P High has been set.
Sotware has generated Targets for Ftse as 6805 followed by 6765
& 6750.
Seems a long way and sounds crazy – blame the software. What do I know.
Software Stops are 6847 Medium Strength & 6861 Strong
I agree with that support at 6805
PMS – Target is not support on the software!
Any divi this month?
1.6 tomorrow
Long @ 6811
Waste of time going long 🙁
….and money too 🙂
where next level ?
FTSE a mess – spooked by a poll! Dax much better today 🙂
WHat level now on FTSE ? If Scots , go UK will be leaving with nothing. Oil is in Scotland
Get busy Fracking!
🙂
Nick, views on ftse support with 6800 gone?
6770 my guess today.
Software target 6765
Also now Long Entry is being Signalled at 6764
So really a Take profit and go Long
Until US open FTSE will keep dropping, i think.
take profit here or @6765?
Seems to struggle to get about 6800 which makes me think another big drop to 6760 may be on cards before Dow opens.
Was due a retrace anyway.
Wonder what the guy in Braveheart is doing in his grave right now ? 😀
Well some heavy support at 6772.
What will the Dow do this afternoon? Ignore the ftse and continue to big rally?
I’m long from 6780.
I’ve been long,short,long,short then stopped out.over traded out of profit and outta here! Think I shall try again tomorow.good luck all
neither 6856 or 6762 was triggered…
Look now for SPX. 2002 pivot
still not sure what strategy are you using, trend lines or something?
As I understand you compare RSI of 1hour and 30 min, are you looking for them to be above certain number? Nor sure what you mean about other indicators, sorry.
not reaching the pivot
Does anybody got an impression that it’s sideways on Dow? No direction at all.
Yes 🙁
Matters closed : 2020 next target. Everything else with it
so, 17300 🙂
Need to buy a dog to buy at these levels. Almost bought at 2000, but was so afraid. Then I smash in my table and my mouse it the sell button on SPX, when it was at 2005 high. I rushed to closed with small profit. 😀
And today was with that thing in buying on SPX pivot at 2002, but when it crossed so fast I moved aside.
Anyone long on SPX ?
NO one… great. Everyone still looking to short or already short
Don’t know. Tried short right now on Dow, and closed b/e. Angry with myself as I shouldn’t have entered the trade. It was no confirmation at all. Just possible double top. No other signs of weakness. Idiotic trading today, need to tell myself off.
Do not believe it. Some ghost was trying to say me that I need to short, when the sell button was hit by accident and not go long…
He was right (the ghost), I should have held my short for some pips, but it’s hard to trade away from the screen. If it doesn’t go straight away before 16.00 I have to go.
Nick
Why am I not able to post.
have you banned me ?
I just gave the signals of my software for everybody.
Your analysis was way off today, so have you banned me ?
So it seems to be ok now.
Ok must have been a hitch
Long dow @ 17115
I’m holding on to my preference for a shallow dip to mid-September — that’s next week! Not much lower, say, than today’s low ≈ 6770. But, I have sold my shares in cos. which either are based in Scotland or are exposed to the consequences of a ‘Yes’ vote. (Osborne and Cameron would do well to keep their mouths shut — stupidity can be provocative!) I have been seriously concerned for some time, but by all means get fracking, and run the risk of ruining this ‘green and pleasant land’ for future generations.
Jim
Looks like we are going to have the ideal chart patterns for day trading.
Esp the next few weeks.
It will be a pity if scotland went alone, misguided Salmon, and unfortunately
people are always sheep and shortsighted.
But what the hell – Scotland will still be attatched to England physically,
unless one of Salmons manifesto is to build another Hadrians (alias Salmon ) wall.
RentalCollection — Yes, Friday 19th or Monday 22nd could be seismic! 😀
What’s your target Senu ?
Jim
I don’t think it is a 1 or 2 day affair.
I think that we are going to see this over the next few weeks
infact hopefully to October.
Are you day trading or swing ?
You mention you have sold your shares!
PMS, 17160 hopefully 🙂
stop @ pivot
How long you been trading with your strategy.
Can you explain a bit more about your strategy. Pls
When to enter and exit
In fact can you teach me.
Thanks
Just post them, everyone tells what they do, more or less.
However, be careful with not using the stops. The price may go any direction any time.
How long have you been trading? Have you had a losing trades? What do you normally do with them when they get bigger and bigger?
I took that short on Dow 17131.5 at 16.15 but didn’t hold (b/e) cos I didn’t have confirmation. How did you work out that it was going to sell from 6830 in the afternoon is beyond me. Must be fibs 61.8%, it’s only at 18.00 it showed some sign of weakness, where I would initiate my trade on Dow… i wish.
That’s not a problem. I can do that
What’s the point in reading the FT. Why not read something on Internet?
looks like 50%
Why do you need to read FT? and why it is so precise in time – 7:35? I don’t think you get any predictions in the magazine.
If you are so successful you must be doing something that we don’t know. Tell us about it.
I got a trade right.zero crossover on Mac d closed at 17114. Dow. 31 quid you gotta start somewhere right?!lol.Today £31 tomorrow £310? Profit preferably!
Cheers all
Waiting now for the latest poll to be released at midnight which should further confirm that the Yes campaign have it. The size of the lead will determine whether the markets are spooked again in the morning.
THis is why I’m astonished by the way people short the market so easily. ANd you bring things to an higher level…shorting without any stops
It seems the poll is 50/50. So, nothing to dramatic for now. If UK breaks, then FTSE will have a difficult time
If uk Scotland break the ftse she go dowwwwwwn.