6812, 6770, 6709 Support, 6821, 6876, 6909 Resistance

Good morning. Well that was an interesting day; the market was spooked by the Scotland poll showing the Yes vote slightly ahead, with sterling taking a real bashing. If yesterdays action has done anything then it might have shown what might be, therefore there might be a desire to get the FTSE higher so that an effect from a Yes vote in 9 days has a lesser effect. Initially today I am looking at support at 6812 as another dip starts to make things look rather bearish, with 6770 below that.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asia-Pacific stocks fell a fourth day, with the benchmark index heading for a three-week low, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated from a record and as consumer shares slipped.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slipped 0.3 percent to 147.84 as of 11:40 a.m. in Tokyo, heading for its lowest close since Aug. 14. The equity gauge rebounded 14 percent from a February low through yesterday amid signs the U.S. economy is strengthening and as China introduced stimulus. The S&P 500 Index retreated from an all-time high yesterday following a five-week rally.

“The market is taking its lead from the U.S.,” Daphne Roth, head of Asian equity research at ABN Amro Private Banking, which manages about $218 billion said by phone. “We’re seeing a temporary consolidation after the recent rally. Global economic growth is still on track. We’re still overweight on equities.”

New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.1 percent. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.2 percent, while the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index declined 0.5 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index each rose 0.2 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index and Singapore’s Straits Times Index each added 0.1 percent. Markets in South Korea and Hong Kong are closed for a holiday.

Relative Value
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded at 13.7 times estimated earnings at the last close, compared with 16.7 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 15.5 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index.

Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent today. The U.S. equity benchmark gauge retreated 0.3 percent from an all-time high as declines in energy companies along with oil prices overshadowed a rally by Yahoo! Inc.

European Union governments abruptly put on hold for at least a “few days” new sanctions against Russia, allowing more time to assess the viability of a cease-fire in Ukraine without risking further trade retaliation by the Kremlin.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

I wouldn’t be totally surprised if there was a rise over the next few sessions, to get the FTSE generating some positive headlines before the vote. Yesterdays action certainly caused a bit of worry with the Yes vote showing a lead in the polls, albeit only at 51%. Still neck and neck really. For today we have the daily pivot at 6822 so there is initial resistance there, but we have some initial support at 6812 – where we have the 30 minute coral line. Looking at the Raff chart then we have support below that at 6780 and a PRT support line at 6768 below that.

I have plotted a fairly bullish day, maybe surprising all things considered though. I can see an early rise to 6842 before some stutters there, but then a later rise to resistance at 6876. The proviso for this is that the 6812 area holds initially; if that breaks then 6770 looks likely. We are below the 10 and 20 day Bianca channels currently, and as mentioned above I wouldn’t be surprised if they engineer a rise to 6937ish.

62 Comments

  1. Good call about 6812 Nick.
    I do find it interesting how a depreciation in the pound or a tiny falls im equity prices are used as some barometer of pending doom to the masses. Of course most people don’t follow the markets so will accept what the politicians spin to them.

  4. As I understand – where you put an arrow – this is where you initiated the trade? What’s your target on FTSE?

      1. So Let’s be it. Just tell me if I can follow you, if you don’t mind and that would be great. Thanks.

  5. “All earned in 2 hours of hideous work” +22 points on Dow. Decided not to wait for 17140is after all, exited at 17127 at this time. Who knows how US will open.

        1. I should have waited after all, but I would close now anyway, just extra 3 points would be nice. But don’t be greedy. After all I always say to myself: don’t worry – you’ve taken the most of the move, why complain???

  6. We had a bloke once on the chat who lost 50 grand. I think he called himself BadSituation. Trust me, it never came back to his short entry, he was short 6000 av apparently. He would be still waiting after 3 years I suppose.

  7. Trading on plus500 on a building site.not a recipe for success! Need mac d and RSI , anybody recommend a better mobile platform?

  19. I am new to this forum, some of you guys sounds pro and maybe makes lots of money. I am long on 6837

      1. No, I tried stupid short which annoyed me to bits. Just exited, just +10 points. Which totals 30 points today. But if I was here in the afternoon, it could be an easy short, not like now. I thought it would go fast after retrace, or whatever I took for retrace. Emotions woke up, didn’t like it. No more trades today.

  21. Software had buy for 6815
    targets 6848 and 6854
    Also has a sell trigger at 6848 & 6854
    Suppose suggesting a range type of day
    Still getting used to the signals of this
    software

  23. Some of the signals – just go against all common sence.
    Cant see it with any form of technical analysis as taught
    Wonder if i am more hoping than really it working.
    It worked preety well yesterday. Also today I suppose.
    However did not take any of the trades Today.
    I suppose its all about trust. Can a dumb software really
    decifer something as complex as the market. I suppose
    just must persivere with recording the signals and seeing
    the outcome.

  24. Well – here I am talking to myself.
    Feels like another wasted day. Waiting.
    hoping. So please bear with me as I
    just spill my frustrations on this chat room.

  25. Oh, yeah, now it’s going just to annoy me even more. I’ve been nursing this 17041.5 for ages. Who cares now.

  26. Jack2
    price action, indicators & my head.
    Thats exactly what I have been saying to myself
    But in my case – Losses & losses
    So that is the only reason why i am testing this
    software signals. Tell you something – its done
    better than me. But like you – difficult to trust a software

    1. agree. if it helps you so it must be giving you some discipline. That’s the most important in trading.

  27. Well Lets see – if this software works
    with its signals for now

    targets 6848 and 6854
    Also has a sell trigger at 6848 & 6854

  33. No rental… Just don’t see why people are screen shotting there screen I have a practice account so it don’t matter what skake I use it’s at about 900000 starting stake was 50000 but if I showed you my proper account I am a fare bit down mostly because emotions are different from practice to proper accounts… And to be truthful I don’t care what people are up or down I am here to try and learn.. Which as a trader never stops.

  34. Market indecisiveness caught me out last 2 days, ugh. Thing is when your start winning you go on a roll and vice versa with losing…Trading low stakes for now until we get the inevitable ‘no’ vote then I’ll be looking to short medium term.

  36. Truly impressive if genuine…..and of course we wouldn’t think any less of you if it wasn’t genuine so can be honest!

    To turn £20k in £1.2m (6000%)in less than a year is remarkable. Possible yes but extraordinary.

    As for me…..more the slow and steady approach…..looking for Hedge Fund seeding so it means have a well capitalised repeatable strategy with low volatility and drawdowns.

    Across the last 5 years have returned 2000% (not quite achieved my target of doubling my money each year). However once fully capitalised then expect that to fall to 20 – 50% a year.

  37. this returns come from spreadbetting ?
    how much percentage of your capital is allocated for margin required, if in spreadbetting CFD’s ?

  38. PMS

    Presume that question is aimed at me. I trade cfd’s through CMC and hold positions from a week upto a quarter, typically though a month or 2.
    In terms of capital – backtesting my strategy has shown that the largest drawdown was around 1,100 points per contract (a 1 in 30 year event but typically 700 would cover 90% of events). In addition I set aside a reserve of 10% of the current index value for flashcrashes. This is based on the previous flashcrash where the Dow fell 9.1% from intraday high to low. So overall as a minimium I look to 1,700 points per contract held as capital…..although in prior years it hasn’t been that much. This as you can see is very conservative…..assumes a flash crash will happen at the lowest point of 1 in 30 year event. The probability of this happening is 0.1%. I call the initial capital as tier 1, the flashcrash reserve as tier 2 and any buffer or ytd pnl / mtm as tier 3.

    For the hedge fund model I would further capitalise by approx 1000 points to reduce the probability of large drawdowns. So typically setting aside a third of the FTSE as capital (leverage of 3:1) and returning 800 points…..30 – 35% (most hedgies would be more than happy with that!)

  41. Well what is the software saying
    Gave a sell signal at 6825 Target 6778
    Did not take it though.

    1. Decided to watch it today – the signals
      and see if it proves accurate again. If so
      Will be blindly taking it from tommorow.
      Well that is the intention anyway

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