Good morning. Well the first part of yesterday played out with the rise to 6840 then the drop down, not quite reaching 6812, but spent the rest for he day unable to break through that 6840 level despite a few attempts. Equally, 6812 still held, and was tested again later in the day. That level has held overnight too, so is still valid support for today, though a break of that will see 6801 where we have the 25ema on daily.
News yesterday was still filled with the Scottish vote expectations, as indeed it probably will be for the next 2 weeks. Certainly going to be interesting to see which way the vote goes, the press is stoking up the panic stations in case of the Yes vote winning with headlines of impending financial calamities! On a lighter note, but still significant was of course the release from Apple, whose shares rallied 4.5%, then faded down 3.5%, reflecting that early evening move in the US indices.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the regional index dropping the most in a month on concern that China’s growth is slowing and amid speculation that U.S.interest rates will rise sooner than estimated. The dollar reached a fresh six-year high to the yen and crude oil rose.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped a fifth day, slipping 0.6 percent by 2:12 p.m. in Tokyo. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated 1.7 percent as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced money-supply growth that was the slowest in five months. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures declined 0.1 percent after the U.S. gauge’s biggest retreat since Aug. 5. The greenback bought as much as 106.52 yen, while the Australian currency slid 0.4 percent. Oil in New York and London advanced and copper climbed 0.3 percent.
The U.S. reports on wholesale inventories today, as investors including BlackRock Inc. speculate that an improving labor market and signs of inflation may justify sooner-than-forecast rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Premier Li’s announcement came before China releases data on lending and money supply this week, with economists estimating aggregate financing will cap its biggest two-month slump since 2011. France and Spain report on industrial production today.
“Investors are shifting their focus towards the end of quantitative easing and the commencement of interest rate hikes by the Fed,” Keith Poore, who helps manage $131 billion as Wellington-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., said by phone. “If they tighten prematurely, the global economy could slide back into recession, but I don’t think they would.”
Group Movers
Nine of 10 industry groups on the Asia-Pacific gauge retreated today, led by energy firms, materials producers and information technology companies.
The Hang Seng Index is down for a fourth straight day, the longest such streak since the period ended June 19. A gauge of Chinese companies listed in the city retreated 2.1 percent, the most since April 11, as banks and energy companies declined.
China’s M2 money supply, the government’s broadest measure, rose 12.8 percent in August from a year earlier, Premier Li said yesterday in Tianjin, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported ahead of the official release by the People’s Bank of China. That compares with a 13.5 percent pace in July, which was also the median estimate for August in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slid 0.6 percent, headed for its lowest close since Aug. 14. Prices for iron ore, Australia’s biggest export, fell 0.5 percent at China’s Tianjin port yesterday, declining a sixth trading day and reaching their lowest level since Sept. 23, 2009, according to data compiled by The Steel Index Ltd.
Rate Bets
BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder said interest rates are likely to drift higher as research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Sept. 8 indicated investors may be underestimating how quickly U.S. policy makers may tighten policy. Rieder said last month in a Twitter post that the Fed may increase rates early in 2015.
There’s a 61 percent chance the Fed will raise its benchmark interest-rate target to at least 0.5 percent by July 2015, futures trading shows. The likelihood was 52 percent at the end of August. The U.S. central bank is gauging the strength of the world’s largest economy as it winds down its bond buying program and considers the timing of raising rates. Fed officials next meet Sept. 16-17.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) dropped to $97.99 in New York, after advancing during the trading session to within a point of an intraday record. The stock, which is still up 22 percent this year, has typically fallen on other days when Apple introduced new products. Shares dropped 2.3 percent Sept. 10, 2013, the day the iPhone 5s and 5c debuted.
FTSE Outlook
I think that the 6812 level will still hold initially, and we gets rise to todays pivot at 6829. We also have the top of that rising channel at 6830 so I expect a bit of a stall there. I assume a dip back then another rise, and a lot will hinge on whether the bulls can break 6847 to push slightly higher, possibly reaching a similar resistance level I had for yesterday at 6874 where there is a major PRT resistance line, as well as the mid point of both the Raffs. To start the day the moving averages are all bearish so the bulls will have to charge out the blocks to make sure that 6812 holds. If that breaks then we will dip to 6800, and 6784, and then the next support after that is Monday’s low at 6772. Below that and it starts looking quite bearish for 6710, though as mentioned yesterday I do think they will want the FTSE higher so any drop on the vote results is less pronounced.
Looking at the chart right now it actually looks a bit directionless!
Just to keep you all filled in.
The software Gave a sell signal at 6825 Target 6778
A buy trigger has just come up – infact 2
@ 6770 & 6750
just watching today – as still not able to pluck up courage
to follow – what essentially looks like a black box.
But has been correct yesterday. But feeling quite
bad at not been able to make the 25 pips so far.
Saying that – I was also thinking that the market would go higher
today from 6815 . But what do I know.
RentalCollection — I’m interested in what your ‘black box’ says so please keep us posted! I understand the sell signal at 6825; that seems on the ball, but I don’t understand the buy triggers at 6770 and 6750, since the FTSE hasn’t gone below ≈ 6800 since open. Are the triggers levels which are expected to be met later today? Thanks.
Did it miss 6800 as a buy point?
6815 now.
looks like we are going higher.
Software has come a cropper
Jim
As such right now – No new signals.
It did not give 6800 as a buy.
Infact the signals have remained the same.
Not sure – if after it goes higher than 6825
the new signals are generated.
Will keep you updated – No problem
Jim
Any comments on the Market.
I am tending to see the market going higher
from my analysis.
Closed my sell just after open?!mmm then buys at 812 ftse stopped out.glad I closed Dow yesterday at 17048 from 17006. Still down overall at minute. I didn’t see nicks 6797 resistance must have been half asleep!
Jim
New sell signal 6821
Targets have not changed
looks like
RentalCollection — Things in flux at the moment I think. 5 min. view pretty flat — waiting for direction. I rate the 30 min. drift as slightly negative at the moment — this would be confirmed I guess by a return to 6800 and below.
Hi Rental
Post updated in those buy signals
Have an order at 6751 – 200 ma 4hour chart
Out for a few hours now but will check back later. Good luck RC. 🙂
why this bounce? any data or poll?
A lot of crap. Stop posting unless in real time
I thought the same, by the way, PMSInvestor, especially the exit…
Thanks.
Thanks it helped on my Dow short. Very nice one. Perfect crossover. Had it from 17042 and closed before US 17026.
Its been a longtime since I posted comments on Nick’s blog. I always enjoy reading Nick’s analysis and comments here. I just follow PA and FIB levels.
I am trying this round with £1000 capital and telling myself to be more disciplined (which I have found is the hardest bit).
Thought I will post my trades here.
Dow Short 17051 – Stop 17062 (£3 PP)
Dax Short – 9712. 7 – stop 9722 (£3 pp)
FTSE Short – 6841 – Stop 6851 (£5 pp)
Jack2: How are you ? I can recognize only a few users in here and a lot of new people. I don’t know if NR169, Donald are still writing comments there were guys who give you good advice.
Hi, RJ. It’s very nice to see you here. My strategy is exactly like yours – PA, Fibs, pivots levels, something like that so I know what you are saying. I like EMA too much as well.
LOL, yesterday I had a short trade 17050 £3pp just like you, however closed it with a little profit. I thought 38% would give a bounce, but it shoot up to 61.8 in the end.
Well I am fine, I managed to survive the spring-summer, had losses, now catching up really. I haven’t seen Donald for a while, NR169 wrote in spring-summer, haven’t seen him since – he was a massive help for discipline and stop losses. I got his advice saved. Senu is still here, if you remember him. Many new people come…
Yes I was very tempted to take a trade at 17050 just before leaving work but waited and took a short a 17071 and closed it at 17020 this morning.
All the trades are in profit at moment but it can go away. I am not moving my stop losses to b/e for the moment. I am willing to take the loss but just want to see if it moves down significantly as the longer times frames on the charts are suggesting a reversal.
Now stop at b/e for all the trades.
Dow Short 17051 – Stop 17062 (£3 PP) Running at b/e
Dax Short – 9712. 7 – stop 9722 (£3 pp) Running at b/e
FTSE Short – 6841 – Stop 6851 (£5 pp) – Closed 6825 (Stupid Emotions 🙂 )
Don’t want to check my trades until US close to keep my emotions in check.
RentalCollection — Wondered if your system had highlighted any or all of the following (all values approximate.)
1. Sell @ 6825 — 08:10
2. Buy @ 6800 — 09:05 (mentioned earlier)
3. Sell @ 6845 — 11:00-12:00 (Possibly; previous buy might still be good, but favour some downside right now.)
If it didn’t, suggest treat with great caution!
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps74391030.png
Long dow @ 980
How did you know, Senu?
Added to my DAX short £2 PP 9690 – Stop 9700
Havies — I didn’t try to read your link yesterday — I believe implicitly whatever you say. Since you are sitting on a tax-free profit of £1.18m why not do your bit and make a decent contribution to ‘Save the Children’, or another worthwhile charity of your choice? Say, £50k; just 4.2% of your tax-free profit. You could post proof of having made the donation on this site, and receive much well-earned adulation.
Btw has anyone heard of Ampify Trading? Run trader training. I attended a presentation about 18 months ago and another about 2 weeks ago. Not really for me although I will probably do one of their courses shortly.
Anyone sent me a mail that they are in documentary to be screened on BBC2 on Monday at 9pm. Worth a watch I suggest.
As for the oldies….I have been on here for about 2 years and think only Jim and I are left from that time. Ray was good value and Hash Mash etc, but guess people lose their accounts or just move on.
I’ll look out for that Javed — Mon. 15th I take it. I haven’t heard of them previously. I never could understand exactly what Ray was saying, but he was absolute about it! I enjoyed Hashmash’s strategies and valued Donald’s contributions. Thinks … Nick could make a hilarious novel out of this lot! 😀
Sorry yes the 15th….I can’t link to it but look up on the BBC website. Looks like not just about Amplify but a 2 parter about the market players as a whole.
Yes I always felt Ray had got himself into a place where he felt the market was against him. We have all been there I’m sure but longterm it’s not a basis for successful trading just as being too confident is not either.
dow booked 17015
Very well done Senu — you’re ahead of my indicator! 😀
🙂
Jim
Thanks for your note.
No it did not give the Buy at 6800.
However as I said a sell came at 6821
I am not sure about 45 sell as I closed the system down
and was on e-mail / phone to the guys in USA.
The original module (plug-in ) is preety 50 :50
However one of the Users of this (who I met during
a visit to US ) has re-written some algo in this and
has been using this with great success ( he’s shown
his results ) This is what I have – got it only a few days back.
I am still getting used to it. So for now I will test it.
He uses it for the Russel & Nasdaq. He has asked me to
change some settings ( a bit of trial & see )
Problem with me is that of belief. Either in my
own analysis or somebody elses.
But i will keep posting & lets see.
Dow Short 17051 – Stop 17062 (£3 PP) Closed at 17010
Dax Short – 9712. 7 – stop 9722 (£3 pp) Stopped b/e
DAX short £2 PP 9690 – Stop 9700 Stopped Out
Overall profitable for the day but what I working towards is a process which I can follow and trade without Stress.
What kind of things you are trying to do to help stress-free trading? I wrote some kind of guidance on what I am doing and importantly the article about stop-losses and how they are important.
What about you?
Jim
Is your system working for you.
& how often do you stray from it?
Thanks
Rental what signals you have from DAX. Made an early entry at 6714 this morning and I maybe stick with it till tomorrow. Liked the close and daily channel respect. Also it just broke the 1 hour downtrend channel from the highs last days
Have have been coming onto this forum for over 3 years as for Ray he trades equities more than indice but is still around… But this forum miss the likes of Donald and Jason both great traders with great advise
PMS
Sorry I do not trade the Dax.
only the Ftse.
I will post the signals as they come
but I am changing some settings so
will be probably tommorow
Ok, thanks. Will look forward for your real time signals
RentalCollection — I’m still learning about the latest indicator/system, shown in the last graph. It seems to be telling no lies, and is usable in any timeframe so far as I can see. E.g., FTSE/5 mins., the last trade quoted was:
3. Sell @ 6845 — 11:00-12:00 (Possibly; previous buy might still be good, but favour some downside right now.)
That’s followed by:
4. Buy @ ≈ 6820 — 15:00-16:00 (That move still current but tending to weaken now @ 6845.) The buy point is shown by a clear local min. in the indicator, observable in real time. A secondary buy signal is where the indicator crosses the origin, going from negative to positive.
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps3b7c229f.png