Good morning. As expected a choppy, flat, hard to trade day yesterday.The level for the long didn’t quite reach, though the short at 6812 managed to get a few points. Its going to continue to be a bit topsy turvy till the vote result. If you wanted a week off this is probably a good one to take! We are slightly above todays pivot now, so in theory that will act as support, though the bulls still need to break 6820, though the top of the 10 day Bianca is now only at 6832. Another flattish day coming up, with most traders keeping their powder dry pre vote I expect.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the regional index headed for its longest losing streak in more than a decade, the dollar weakened against most major peers and government bonds climbed before the Federal Reserve reviews interest rates. Metals rebounded.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) fell 0.1 percent by 1:03 p.m. in Tokyo, falling a ninth day. Nasdaq 100 Index futures were little changed after the U.S. gauge of technology stocks sank 1 percent in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.1 percent, with the currencies of Japan and South Koreastrengthening. Ten-year Australian notes rose for the first time in six days as the yield on 10-year Treasuries slipped two basis points. Gold and nickel rose at least 0.3 percent.
Fed officials meet to review policy from today, with an unexpected decline in American factory output tempering speculation that the timeline for interest-rate increases could be brought forward. Morning trading in Hong Kong was canceled because of a typhoon, while Australia’s central bank said it will monitor risks from rising property prices as policy makers reiterated a period of stability in record-low interest rates.
“The big issue is whether the Fed will change its forward guidance to indicate they are getting closer to the decision on putting interest rates up,” Stephen Halmarick, head of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management, which oversees about A$170 billion ($154 billion), said by phone from Sydney. “The transition period as the Fed tightens will be difficult for markets in the Asian region. I think we are in for a few months of increased volatility in markets.”
Loss Streak
Nine of the 10 industry groups on the Asia-Pacific equity gauge retreated as the measure heads for its longest run of daily declines since June 2002. About two stocks dropped for each that advanced.
Japan’s Topix index declined 0.3 percent, snapping a five-day advance, while theKospi gauge in Seoul added 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.
Trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will start at 1 p.m. local time after the morning session was scrapped due to Typhoon Kalmaegi, according to a statement on the exchange group’s website. The city’s third-highest storm signal was issued for the first time this year earlier today. Markets in Malaysia are closed for a holiday.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises gauges dropped 0.2 percent in most recent trading. The Shanghai Composite Index was little changed.
US Interest Rates
The U.S. central bank has been saying since March that interest rates would stay low for a “considerable time” after it completes the asset purchases known as quantitative easing. Speculation the Fed may bring forward rate increases has boosted the allure of the dollar this month and depressed Treasuries.
U.S. factory production fell 0.1 percent in August from July, when it grew 0.4 percent, data yesterday showed. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted an increase of 0.3 percent.
The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1 percent to a one-month low, while the Russell 2000tumbled 1.2 percent, the most since July 31, bringing its retreat in 2014 to 1.5 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index ended the U.S. day down 0.1 percent, with technology shares leading declines with a 0.6 percent drop. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3 percent as energy shares rebounded.
FTSE Outlook
Yesterday saw a bit of weak bull and I expect that we will see the same today. The daily pivot is 6797 so we have support there, and the bulls will need to break 6820, the most recent high, to push on to the top of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6832. I expect that we may see a dip there, probably down to the pivot. Generally its all treading water prior to the vote so not really the best trading conditions. Above 6832 we have the next resistance at 6864. Don’t think it will be bullish enough to reach that level though as it will also need to break 6850 where we have the top of the 10 day Raff!
Support wise, below the pivot we have the bottom of the 20 day Bianca at 6789 and the 10 day at 6766. I expect that the 20 day will hold if tested.
Generally I am thinking a rise then a dip today, but again, limited downside and a slow drift up.
Wow. Just the faith in Back-testing allowed me to have the confidence to hold on to this trade Buy at 6790 – as issued by the software. targeting 6834. The drawdown to 6776 – had me quite nervous.
Emotion tells me – Close this trade off as it is now at breakeven. but will try & hold. till software says close – in the form of a Sell signal or target.
cannot believe you finally decided to test your software and it gave you a losing trade. well, a trade off 6790 was a very risky entry imho. all indicators and ema against. i know it’s some support at 6786 and all you could hope is for a bounce to 6805 at least. but when it’s pulsing you don’t know where it ends, hope that makes sense.
missed the short, not sure what to do now
Placed a stop at 6777 – got hit. 13 pip loss
Software – still saying same signals.
The stop was my clever idea. Oh well
RC — Support is on 6797, 6789, 6766 & s/w signal is similar — Lets see what does ftse do — fingers crossed
Not taking signals from software to trade until – I backtest more.
There must be something that is not giving the reverse signals
for some reason. Has to do something with the way I have messed
around the settings. Will reset everything & start once more.
Well, I think the rise to 6796.6 would be nice, so as to 17011 just before us open and it could be something.
17020-30 would be more great.
i thinks US doesn’t care about UK’s elections.
Long FTSE 6770 – 4 point stop
Long DAX 9607 – Stop 9592
what is OT?
waiting for short, hope this long will get as high as possible.
FTSE/4 hrs. — Linreg 100 continues to tilt down, setting the context. FTSE/100 ticks — SMA 200 and Linreg 100 pointing down. My growth indicator (I’m calling it Grind 😀 ) is negative. It’s recovering a bit at the moment but I expect it to peak shortly — which should signal another slide down.
Grind just turned positive, which is a buy signal . . .
Todays divi is 0.2 🙂
are you planning any short, Senu?
Not till now. I am planning to take off this week as Nick says.
I will hedge in options on Wednesday.
Hi Senu/Jack,
I am also thinking the same with FED and Scottish vote, I would stay away for this week.
I currently have my EUR/USD Long open from yesterday at b/e 12920 will just leave it. I am not too hopeful with this one as its a counter trend trade.
why take the week off when possibly quite good moves might happen?
catch it while you can
I closed Long DAX 9607 at 9644
Long FTSE 6770 at b/e
whos long on the FTSE.. and whats your target ?
I closed my FTSE trade as well for 8 points 9778
well done RJ. now it falls
6753-56 area for support 50day MA looking to go long for 25 pips. Gl all
RC – I guess most of us on here are to exchange experiences and ideas.
I’ve found software and back testing can become an obsession and distraction from the main task in hand.
Sure it works – until it doesn’t. Redesign – rework. Limited only by programming skills.
Essentially – basic technical analysis is what works and keeps the mind focused.
Long FTSE @ 6750
same here.. Target?
stop 6745, first target 6766, then day high
Long 6748.65 – Stops in – without software – easy money
off S2?
Nice fall…surprised me..especially as inflation fell…but will take it. At this rate we could hit 6675 by Thursday which gives plenty of room for a relief (and futile – as either way Scotaland will now get more powers) rally on Friday and remain negative for October.
So Javed does it mean you are going to hold on to your shorts until end of Oct?
Hugh
Thanks for your comments on software.
Yes I agree with you , But ( yes the proverbial BUT )
Your Long was based on …??? . whether Chart
or fundamental – there was a reason. & it is this
reason that I was hoping would be solved by software.
Most of our trading falters because of emotion.
And please – I in no way am contradicting anything you have said.
Technical Analysis. Absolutely.
RC – I would love software to do it – I would really like that as I’m too busy most of the time to concentrate on trading !
I spent years developing systems etc ..and now with all the automated trading offered by IG/Prorealtime there is no end to the amount of programming that can be done. Only last week I actioned “Auto Trade” and as a result , I have two positions (Long) that may come right but at the moment are sitting on the wrong side. So I still have an appetite for it !
But at the same time – “trading” is skill that you learn.
Your experience, background research, skill in pattern recognition is what makes the difference.
Then there is personal development & discipline. Often the weak links in most strategies / software signals.
I’d better stop now as this is beginning to sound strangely like a confessional now ….LoL.
In short – develop yourself to be a great trader not a software slave!
Hi Ahwab, how are you doing? Looks like you back in form 🙂
Caught my 20 pips, wouldn’t be surprised to see theDPW drop back a bit as it has been for last few days.
sweet 🙂
has anybody moved their stop up? and if so to where. Obvisouly beyond B/E
I still have my original stop, looking for 6789
Senu, can you post the URL/link to divi please?
https://twitter.com/IGClientHelp
cheers bud
Yes Sam I only trade at month end and that is key to keeping my trading discipline and trade size. Only 1 more trade to go for the year now.
for the year??? there are 4 more month in this year so 4 more trades apparently. I wouldn’t be able to live like this.
Jack
I’m long throughout the last quarter. So I will switch my short at the end of October into a long, and not switch again until early Jan. So just 1 more trade to go. So far 6 trades for the year – 5 profitable of which 1 is unrealised, 1 small loss (18points) . In total approx 650 points ytd.
RC – I would love software to do it – I would really like that as I’m too busy most of the time to concentrate on trading !
I spent years developing systems etc ..and now with all the automated trading offered by IG/Prorealtime there is no end to the amount of programming that can be done. Only last week I actioned “Auto Trade” and as a result , I have two positions (Long) that may come right but at the moment are sitting on the wrong side. So I still have an appetite for it !
But at the same time – “trading” is skill that you learn.
Your experience, background research, skill in pattern recognition is what makes the difference.
Then there is personal development & discipline. Often the weak links in most strategies / software signals.
I’d better stop now as this is beginning to sound strangely like a confessional now ….LoL.
In short – develop yourself to be a great trader not a software slave!
Reply
Hugh
Thanks. I know you are right.
Just as foot note .
A relative of mine found herself at a loose end in March / April time.
She had traded before some years ago so thought rather than waste her time she’d trade on the markets for a while.
Started with a 10 K bank in April.
As of last night – her bank was standing at 49,950K.
She uses nothing other than an 8 hour chart, a 10 minute chart, MACD & RSI a little.
Doesn’t really follow the news – just reads the charts.
And Incredible balls !
Wow. Good to hear.
So there is still hope in trading.
Yes I agree with all your sentiment.
Disipline. and Belief.
I’m amazed as well.
** Lives in Australia – only trades FTSE and ASX – nothing else..**
Hugh,
49,950K ??
10 K > 49,950
49k rather than 49 million?
Still amazing
PS Her ROI is slightly better than Barclays Wealth management ROI.
( oh forgot – thats before their charges ) …ya ya
Hugh
Looks like I better emigrate to Australia
She is there by ” life’s adventure ” – not by choice !! LOL
I hope Nick’s arrows kinda to repeat on Dow soon.
I am still holding my long 🙁
Guys, any still long in FTSE?
maybe it will rise a bit for getting out…
i need it will rise so i could short. but well, not every time. the short creep in so unexpectedly.
at 14.30 it either bounce or sink.
I’m out Senu of my Long –
I’d put stops at b/e
& just wait to see if you can get a close above 6772…
mmm, was waiting for a rise at 13.30 what a shame. couldn’t enter any trade.
Entered long again @6760.
Closed for 11 pips, must have got this scalping habit from Senu…
I am new here. Does the morderator update the charts
I reckon DOWgoing to test that 17048 mark 200MA…
it would be nice a higher price
Hugh
Just out of curiosity – what do you use to generate your signals?
I use the RSI on the 5 min and MACD has to be above or below 4/-4.
Also I ramp up trades.
(I know everywhere you read that you shouldn’t) but what I have found is that if you have decided to Go Long – then you trade in that direction – so you always go Long until the the series of trades is finished. (E.G – If the RSI is indicating that you go Long – you go Long. If the price falls away – drifts off 30 points let’s say… you go Long again …you don’t sell out.)
If you change your stance – it just creates problems for the trade later.
Also, I think, if you are just starting, that there is a tendency to think that every trade has got to be a winning trade before you move on to the next trade.
My trading record – together with my Sister’s, I mentioned earlier, has been good because the majority of the trades are all good entry points and left “open”.
Each at some stage have moved into profit and reached their Limit.
I have an excel speadsheet with “two important columns” .
One Column has Open Positions, Long or Short and current Profit & Loss.
(Don’t forget you can go Long whilst you are Short – it’s just a new position) – then when one has reached it’s Limit, you call “Bank”.
You move the figure over to the next column Called “BANK”
Nothing complicated.
I have a field called FTSE which I just update manually and is linked to all open positions. (I don’t use DDE Links anymore)
Add the two together – gives you your Nett position.
Everyday is new day with plenty of moves to get stuck into.
I only trade FTSE & nothing else.
Thanks Hugh.
also for ..”””I’ve found software and back testing can become an obsession and distraction from the main task in hand.”””
Much appreciated
Short levels on FTSE – I think – 6815 would be good entry
I have gone with a blind short on DOW..No signal to short really just the level. 17030. Stop above 17080.
Patience, Discipline – Closed that short
are you short or long?
I thought it was going down. I made a mistake today.
oh dear me it doesn’t go down
God almighty, got out. fuf.
got 10 quid at least consolation. that was awful
I think you are right, RJ, terrible short, I was 17017.5 not the best.
why I don’t believe in this short – ema look terrible.
Thanks Hugh for the update. I have been into a meeting leaving a limit order @ 80 and it triggered 🙂 happy 30 pts..
I’m short Dow as of about 5 mins ago.
no, i gave up on this short. it really got me nervous today. don’t feel it will drop to 16972 today.
i feel it’s more likely to climb to 17055 now and annoy everybody in a process.
Long dow @ 17020, Jack it is near pivot 🙂
yes, you are correct, but just don’t like these 2 red lines and orange line above, they are all supports and i don’t feel they will be broken easily. i will stay aside.
Closed short!!
DOW has been frustrating last few days 🙁
Do you have any positions open on DOW ?
yup, shorts 17120, 17070 and 40 all min stakes.
I have no idea what any of the indices are going today all I know is p500’s prices don’t match anybody else’s and my pockets 200 notes lighter.should of taken week off!
Nice timing senu
dow booked @ 17075 🙂
Good one Senu..Glad I pulled out of the short.
booked a bit early 🙁
Short Level on Ftse – 6815 would be good
Short FTSE 6810 – could be a gift !
there you go…..grab your gift 🙂
Short Again 6815
Why is it a gift…
Will we ever see a price below 6800 ever again ????????
Today is precisely the kind of day that I would think makes it difficult to day trade and definately day trade on technicals alone. Successful technical day traders would of course disagree with me but fundamentals drive markets. Technicals are definitely a useful club in the bag but not the only club.
Who would have predicted a sharp fall this morning – similarly the rally now? The volatility is low compared to historical average yet still I think many typical daytraders would have got stopped out and burnt at some point today. No disgrace in that – especially given that daytraders accept that they can’t win on every trade which then casts doubt on those who suggest they do.
Javed
– Funny how people interpret things differently.
I would have thought today was a beautiful day for day-trading.
It couldn’t have got much better !
Trending days are the worst..& that it wasn’t…
True…..as I said successful day traders will disagree with me….haha.
Dow short @ 17135
Senu, shorted 40 min ago 17152
I thought, OK, if play then play now. Hope it works out ok.
I did the same Jack. Short at 17154.
Oh, I closed already, tiny profit. cannot bear this pressure. what the bas…rds they are, aren’t they.
Surprised there aren’t more people posting Shorts here –
Short at Resistance 6820 – Buy at Support 6785
(Dow Resistance at 17170)
2007 on SPX today 😀
target of the wedge
Bullish descending wedges broken out, both DAX and SPX. Bullish flag on daily for DAX, maybe be broken tomorrow on a daily gap up. 9800 on the cards
PMS, are you long in SPX now?
only dax
Hugh — Thanks for the mention of your sister’s success — inspired me to revisit MACD and have a look at her timeframe setup. Choice of timeframe is a perennial issue for me; good to know about a successful example. According to FTSE/MACD/8 hrs., 6750 might be about as low as we go. Wouldn’t that be interesting! 😉
dow short closed. 🙁
God gracious. What the hell is going on? Did you have a good long, Senu? I should have gone after all.
For tomorrow a green candle on ftse daily chart. DOW/SnP shall push ftse up.
oh, yeah, don’t be afraid. I am afraid with all my guts. was burnt ufff a lot, …. a lot. Even if it drops, I am not in position to mess with the market. FTSE is not even at its top, so while it’ll be catching up, Dow has all chances to try 17240ish.
Gap should be closing, however I’ve seen once Dow woke up with 100 points up from yesterdays’ close. That has never happened on FTSE so I am cautious with dow.
I cannot believe that you find this price action amusing. I am gutted to be honest. Gutted I didn’t expect it and could not profit from.
….continue the commentary….
RC – What was the software ??
Also – what platform do you use ??