Good morning. The long off the pivot yesterday didn’t work with that rather steep decline yesterday but the FTSE found support at the bottom of the 20 day Raff and coral area at 6760 to set up another V shaped day. Been a regular pattern recently as the UK is spooked in the morning over Scotland then dragged back up by the US in the afternoon, which isn’t that bothered about Scotland! It was also supported by Chinese stimulus. Latest poll shows the No slightly ahead 52 to 48. Still a close call! Today should see some mild bull I think, but going to be jittery still with the vote tomorrow. Support is 6794, with pivot below that at 6781.5.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, halting the regional index’s longest slump in 12 years, while industrial metals climbed and Chinese bonds rallied as the country’s central bank boosted stimulus. The dollar rose before the Federal Reserve reviews interest rates.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent by 1:28 p.m. in Tokyo, rising for the first time in 10 days as a gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong jumped 1.7 percent. China’s five-year bonds gained the most in three months and the cost of insuring Asian debt against default slid a second day. Copper and nickel advanced at least 0.5 percent in London. Standard & Poor’s 500 Indexfutures retreated 0.1 percent and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.1 percent after its biggest drop in three months yesterday.
China is injecting 500 billion yuan ($81 billion) into the nation’s largest banks, according to a government official familiar with the matter, signaling the deepest concern yet with the country’s economic slowdown. Speculation the Fed will today maintain its pledge to keep rates low for a “considerable time” after ending asset purchases helped send the dollar lower yesterday. The euro-area and U.S. report inflation today, while Thailand reviews its key rates.
China’s “authorities want to make sure they will achieve minimum, acceptable growth by providing more liquidity to banks, and I think the market will view that positively,” Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager who helps oversee $1 billion in equities at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne, said by phone. “Given the weak data, particularly over the weekend, some sort of stimulus measures were in the wind, but to see this occur overnight, I’d say it’s still a surprise to the market.”
Lending Support
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 1.1 percent for its first gain in nine days, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is rebounding after its biggest five-day retreat since a credit crunch in June last year. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) slipped 0.2 percent after its biggest drop in six months yesterday.
The People’s Bank of China will funnel 100 billion yuan each to the five biggest banks for a three-month period, said the official, who asked not to be identified because the measure hasn’t been formally announced. The credit expansion builds on targeted measures to shore up growth while stopping short of broad-based monetary and fiscal stimulus that increases dangers from bad loans.
China joins the European Central Bank in adding liquidity, while the U.S. scales back stimulus. Data at the weekend showed Chinese factory output grew at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis and retail sales expanded less than expected.
More Easing
One-year interest-rate swaps, the fixed payment to receive the floating seven-day repurchase rate, declined as much as seven basis points to a three-month low of 3.46 percent in Shanghai, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The yield on government debt due April 2019 climbed four basis points, the most since June 10, and the yuan gained for the first time in five days.
The PBOC’s lending facility “will iron out the short-term bumps in liquidity,” Hao Hong, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co., said in a phone interview. “There is a need for liquidity injections because there are IPOs coming up that can tie up 800 billion to 1 trillion yuan at a time. Plus you have cash demand for the Golden Week holiday and quarter-end demand from banks to meet regulatory requirements.”
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index (AS51) slipped 0.7 percent, while the local dollar weakened 0.3 percent to 90.71 U.S. cents after surging 0.7 percent on the China-stimulus report. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.1 percent after dropping for the first time since Sept. 5 yesterday, while the broader Topix index was little changed.
Timing Issue
Wall Street Journal reporter Jon Hilsenrath said in a Web video that he thinks Fed policy makers will maintain their pledge to keep benchmark overnight rates low for a “considerable time” after the bank ends its asset purchases known as quantitative easing.
A Bloomberg News survey of economists published yesterday was almost evenly divided on whether the Fed will retain the reference to rates staying low for a “considerable time” today. Fifty three percent said the phrase would stay in the Fed’s statement. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak to reporters after the release.
The pound was little changed at $1.6286 after yesterday’s 0.3 percent advance. The Bank of England releases minutes of its last meeting today and Scotland will vote tomorrow on whether to break from the U.K.
FTSE Outlook
Today might see some optimistic buying ahead of the vote tomorrow, levelling off at 6840 on anticipation of a No vote win. Polls only showing a slender lead for the No vote at the moment, which I think has stopped the FTSE being able to rise too far over the past couple of weeks (I had expected it to be around 6900 before the vote, so unless it tears up 100 today I don’t think we will see that level prior). However, if the No vote wins then we might soon be testing those all time highs again, to coincide with another run on the S&P to 2007.
For today I have put the 6794 area holding initially (back test of the 10 day Bianca channel top), though if that breaks there is further support at the daily pivot, 6782, then the bottom of the 20 day Bianca at 6777. Worst case for the bulls is a drop to the bottom of the 20 day raff at 6740.
Initial resistance is 6820 though it dropped off this level last night already, then 6830 where there are the PRT lines and top of that 30min channel, and then 6843 where we have a fib level.
Hi who can help me tell me how to scalp markets. Please
Calmed down since yesterday and looked in hindsight at my mistakes. Found them all. That was more like a blind mistake: sort of – I stare at it all the time but don’t see it. It was long brewing but I was thinking the short was brewing.
It’s only the indicators on 10 min chart saved me from holding a short position from 17017 which I quickly realized – isn’t working. I just didn’t understand why, but my gut told me it isn’t right.
When it went above Pivot, the bell in my head started ringing – you’ve seen it all before – it will be drop to pivot and MORE LIKELY IT WILL NOT BREAK BACK WITH SUCH EMA. And when it started bouncing off my 10EMA I thought that’s it, I need to get out of here.
I wonder if Nick expected that rise? It wasn’t shown on his chart. The chart was: an arrow up and then a big arrow down.
But in reality was had down and then up. A bit frustrating.
Hi Jack..I closed my short on Dow yesterday for a 20 point profit. I have now three positions open at the moment.
Long EUR/USD – 12920 – Stop b/e
Long DAX 9663 – Stop b/e – Target 9710
Long FTSE 6804 – Stop 6790
Lets see how this turns out.
Are you still holding your short from yesterday ?
Yes, I thought it was possible, but just wanted to close the computer before 8pm. Good you closed.
Frustrating day for me also. My long in the morning expecting a rally set the tone for the rest of the day… Didn’t stick to my prices and turned into very poor trading. I broke even in the end but could have come out in profit. Could be better but can always be much much worse!
Trying not to get too frustrated – still have a headache but if we could all trade in hindsight we’d be billionaires.
Tell me about headache. When I have a stressful day I normally take the next day easy or spend it for research or hindsight. Sometimes it’s really funny when I am asking myself: why your heart is pounding or beating fast. I even flap myself on the chest saying – calm down, calm down. Brain seems to all right, but it’s the heart…
I’m giving Hugh’s sister’s setup a dry run! For the next few hours I am limited to a single, laptop screen — timeframe at 10 mins. I’m keeping Linregs 20 and 100, together with SMA 200. FTSE is handily available and I have an MACD filter running applied to a select list of major currency pairs (10 min. timeframe also).
FTSE/10 mins. — Linreg 100, gradient negative. Linreg 20, gradient barely positive. SMA 200, gradient slightly negative. MACD line negative — will the rebound from ≈6792 develop? Alert also to possibility of fall.
Platform: ProRealTime via IG.
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zpsa7cd881f.png
Hi Jim
Not sure on your 6792 Rebound. Are you saying – Will there be a move down to 6792 ? or are you saying the 9.30 Hit on the 6792 ?
PS
The software – signalled a buy from 6806 – in morning with target as 6834 – & that is still active. Drawdown was 14 pips.
Hi RC — Just asking the question will the rebound which we see develop further?
I hope it develops and follows Nick’s arrows and RC’s software target 6834 : )
Me too, I’m in at 6795 (stop 6805 now)
Stopped Out b/e
Nick, are you short? according to your stop – it’s higher than entry.
The MACD setup gave a nice buy signal at ≈6795/09:30. Now bearing fruit!
Is that via Hugh’s sister?
Probably asleep! 😀
Jim
So whether we will go lower towards the 6792 area ?
Got a buy signal right now on MACD/30 mins. ≫ 6830+?
Jim
Interesting
My sell signal came at 6813 & ongoing
I have a long position at 6802 targeting 6840,
Is it possible for people to give reasons for their trade rather than just saying long or short. It would help others to comment and correct their own trades
Sue
“reasons for their trade”
– If their Long ….they’re hoping it will go up …a few points
– If they’re Short …they’re hoping it will go down…a few points
…Lol – only joking ..I no what you mean but today there’s no rhyme or reason
Update — FTSE/10 mins.
1st sell signal 6810/11:30 (bar after max. of MACD line)
2nd sell signal 6800/11:50 (MACD dif crosses origin, turning negative)
My specs. 😀
Long @ 6800 (hopefully will close before US data release @ 13:30)
Jim, I didn’t see your sell signal 🙁
Jim
Interesting
My sell signal came at 6813 & ongoing
Buy signal 6783
RC, what happened to your buy signal with target 6834? is that invalid now?
yes – sell signal negates buy
buy at 6783
Hi – Just passing through – I’m in and out today.
Jim – Glad to see your hard at it…could be an ideal day for just putting away a few points here and there.
RC – I posted on yesterday’s board, so you may not have seen it. What platform are you using, also what software is it that you’re using ?? Just curious..!
Hi Hugh
The software platform is Omnitrader But its a module Money zone that is added for the signal. however the basic module has been modified – with some changes to the code/algo. Settings are biased towards Russel / nasdaq. So I have had to alter the settings for the ftse behaviour.
It seem to be generating better signals now. More for Live based moves. _ i Have a current sell from 6813 with a buy order at 6783 – So I presume this is the target
he is keeping quiet after giving everybody advice to short yesterday. On which I said: no way.
Anyone still long? I am out from my long 🙁
Jack, you in any position?
Not yet, waiting for Dow open. Looking for long today.
Senu how do you say its a buy
Today FED, tomorrow vote
Senu, FED normally affects moves at 19.00, isn’t it?
Senu so how does that make it a buy ?
sue, Fed will not increase the rate(is the expectation of majority). Scotland vote is let by “No” till now. that is more positive.
Buy the rumour, sell the fact. More often than not. IMO today will be one of those paint watching days…
Senu — Sorry about that; my post was rather late.
Hugh — Having fun, thanks.
FTSE/10 mins. — Linregs 100 and 20 both have negative gradients now so that cautions against any buys for a bit.
I’m still long, looking at daily chart, it looks like a short term reversal. Target 6845,
Buy Order triggered 6783
The target for this buy is 6801
No sticking to my prices again…. Terrible.
In my book:
Short @05
Long @05
Long @90
Will see how it pans out. At the moment I’ve paired off my Short @05 and long @90 for profit. I might just write off my long and shorts @05 though and trade around 90.
Next price either 70-20 or 55-05 (depending which i choose to do and if i’m confident of going long of 2)
The aim is +30p whichever way i get there.
Hugh
Today seems a very good day for daytrading.
Ahwab
What are your reasons for your trade
Though if 6780 breeKs we could heading for 6750 for the daily MA
Sue just following short term trend indicators 30mins MACD, etc and using supports.
Just wary of the US will do when it opens…
Mlawrence
Could you explain what you have said in your post at 1.32
I am finding it difficult to understand it. Thank you
Software update
Very difficult to give up this obcession I have with this software.
Bang on – not around or maybe – literally to the pip.
Sell at 6813 – and it predicted the buy at 6783 about an hour before and also the target for it which was met at 2.30.
Gives a head start – a couple of hours before the event.
I just do not know what to say.
Jim
Have you got any new signals?
Back now –
RC
– You need to make the decision to either trade with it or not.
I’m sure you’ve worked this out for yourself.
If you decide it’s the way forward – you will need to take every trade issued.
Both my trades on FTSE and DAX stopped out at b/e
Short DOW 17163 Stop 17177 short based on the rejection pin bar.
Long FTSE @ 6783, no stop
sell ticket at 6790 to 6750
mahmoud, any stops?
yeah 10 points stop at 6800 if 6800 is broken were looking at 6830.
is anyone else is short on the ftse? if so keep tight stops.
MONZ U MUST OF LOST ALOT OF MONEY TODAY
no i closed my long at 6800 with a small loss after it spike, i was pulling my hair out for a bit LOL
im short 6800 hoping for a drop to 6755
Hi Sue,
On screen at the moment technically I opened short @05 closed @05 – 0 profit for the day and am currently long of 1 @90
However I can ignore the screen and if I wish match these trades as I like in my book.
So I match off my sell @05 with my recent buy @90 for +15p profit.
This leaves me long of one @05. I now trade around that price with a target of 70-20 if I do manage to sell making another +15p totaling +30 for the day.
Regardless of what i choose to do if i do manage to sell the result in the bank will be the same.
eg 2 x 15p trades = 30p
or one trade buying @90 selling @20 = +30p
The end result is the same but psychologically today has so far been a good day and i’m currently +15p (better than yesterday anyway and better than being sat 0 and wasting potential profit)
I hope this helps? If not i do apologise. My brain has felt scrambled these last few days!
Here’s to a strong rally this afternoon..!
Back now –
RC
– You need to make the decision to either trade with your software or not.
I’m sure you’ve worked this out for yourself.
If you decide it’s the way forward – you will need to take every trade issued.
Hugh
Yes I agree with you.
But todays signals – just unbeleivable. Spot on sell 6813 Target – 6783
Buy 6783 – Target 6801.
The signals came hours before. Its not as if it is indicator based. where eg. RSI hits 90 – Sell arrow.
Its just stupendous. Just wish i could understand the logic that goes behind these signals.
For now – I stare and wonder.
Probably will have to combine signals with own tech analysis.
its days like this where i think to my self, i should just go and get a job lol. the ftse is just sooo chopy for the last few days
You work for a living mahmoud? Have you no shame LOL
Hi RentalCollection — In my setup the 6810/11:30 sell was good until about 6785/14:10. There was a little up-glitch around 12:30, and a buy signal for just one bar, but there was no way I was going to go with that given plunging Linregs. I have a buy signal at ≈ 6787/14:10, but that’s exactly where we are now (16:15). In the 10 min. setup I shouldn’t take it — Linreg 100 is still firmly down. Very difficult to programme everything you actually take into account in buy/sell decisions.
Talk about a slow grind down…..it’s like watching paint dry for those od us with longer timeframe. 11 points yesterday, 5 todays with 10 minutes to go. Either way I guess the forecast of 6725 – 6750 at the close tomorrow is still likely. Then a relief rally upto 6800 on Friday before remaining bearish for the rest of the month.
Let’s hope the Scots vote yes ….if for no reason than it should help my short at the mo.
As for the software – No further signals
*scalping as a result of climate. I.e was long @ 9150-9520, as one of my preferred trades. In indecisive markets scalping with short stops are the way to go for me :). Opportunist ftw.
Sorry – I forgot – Nick – Not sure where to place him.
Godfather , Headmaster , Analyst , ??????
But i am sure he must be having a good laugh
😉
Good one RC.
Btw talking about the trading world did anyone watch the documentary on BBC2 on Monday? I only seen the first 20mins or so…..will watch the rest this week.
Hey, how could you forget Jack 2? 🙂
and sam also missed 😉
What about Jack 2?
Well, your comments are out here are good read 🙂
RentalCollection —
FTSE/10 mins. — Looks like another sell situation now. Say, sell order at 6780.
Wasn’t everyone chasing long not too long ago…?
Here we go……will they drop the considerable period phrase?
No fundamental change as expected, but new concerns about low inflation….all pretty dovish for rates. Mild sell-off.
Although consensus on where rates will be at next year end are creeping up. Next up the press conference which should see more pronounced moves.
So close to hitting my limit at 70, but ended after the lagging closed it at 82 I.e where it was for the last 2 hours..
I’m not trading tomorrow so bye till Friday all…
Closed my FTSE long.
Good one Senu – unless we see strong bull once Yellen starts talking the FTSE will most likely give up these small gains in the morning. The next 1 hour will determine the day.
Yes. Already giving up gains.
DAX still long. Bull flag tomorrow… do not think Scotts will have much effect
Was expecting already those words from the FED, but most important, the technicals on SPX with that strong close yesterday give signs that we are for a new leg up. DOW breaking that double top and going with my old view that Markets are in a V-shape extension, and now closely to break to the upside.
We still need a final sign. The flattish 50 ma needs to slope positive
About FTSE do not have a clue. It’s another history and I’m not following at the moment. Now looking to swing that DAX until I can reach my target
What’s going on……so much movement with in space of an hour?
just FOMC. Google it to find out.
Oh, FOMC bloodied all my positions a while ago and now back to green. Well, I had few snp short orders that got triggered. Blessing in disguise 🙂
Quite a dangerous game though.
I told you it will kiss 200 (17230), so that’s why I didn’t go short then and now. If I kept my yesterday’s short 17152, I would be at some point -65 points. Do I need this? No.
And that’s why I don’t trade FOMC. Volatility of 100 points in 5 minutes is too much for me to bear. Nice touch off the pivot though. Anybody took advantage of it?
Oh, great, Senu. I thought you could have done long.
Hi Jack…I took a long 17102 and closed it for like 15 points before the candle finished. I wanted to open a short at R1 and got a short at 12213. Now at b/e hoping it doesn’t take my stop tomorrow and continue downwards.
That’s a good move. Hope it will hold below that.
I shorted Dow off the second double top at the high closed for a few points made back a tenth of this weeks losses :-/
Hoping tomorrow will be a big positive day re.ftse good luck all and goodnight
we could say that DOW just broke the double top in the close. A big doji candle, but after all that volatility, what could we expect. Nevertheless a new close high and 50 ma turning the slope positive. Now it only left DAX for a slope turning positive
Was looking at FTSE and it seems resilient to drop further more, after the last test in all time highs. These comparing with the other tests it made on all time highs. In fact it tested the top of the broken wedge and bounced off.
Retail sales figures at 9:30 which should be bullish, and then jobless claims in the US at 1:30 and Phili Business outlook at 3. Both should be bullish but may be seen as a reason to take some profits after the recent good run.
Morning all
Software signal
Buy 6783 target 6817
Long @ 6770
Morning All
Senu – Your doing some good trades.
As I’m in the office all day I thought it may be good to do a running check list.
Opening Range
6791-6776
Last Nite’s LOW 6773
8:35 6775 – RSI Value 19.15
8:35 6770 – RSI “Buy”
(PP S1 = 6758 Fib PP S1 6760)
LOW 6769
This move 6786 – 6769 / 50% = 6778.5
Supertrend – Down = 6784
RC, does your software also give stops?