Good morning. Hold onto your hats as its today Scotland decides. Going to get quite jumpy I expect as the results start to come through… Yes or No!? If possible, today is one of those days when you just stay on the sidelines and watch the fireworks! Support wise, there is 6782 and 6757, resistance wise 6820 and 6840 are still in the frame. News today is going to be all about the Scotland vote, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a rise before any of the results start to come out then maybe a wobble later, especially if the Yes camp are showing to be in the lead. Sterling will be the main one effected – if Yes wins, shorting GBPUSD could be pretty lucrative!
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks outside Japan fell after the Federal Reserve raised its estimates for interest rates. Japan’sTopix (TPX) index jumped toward a six-year high on a weaker yen.
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 0.9 percent to 490.73 as of 11:54 a.m. inHong Kong. The Topix rose 1.1 percent as the yen reached a six-year low against the dollar, boosting the earnings outlook for exporters. The Fed raised by 25 basis points its median estimate for where the federal funds rate will be by the end of 2015, while maintaining a commitment to keep rates near zero for a “considerable time” after bond purchases are completed.
“A weaker yen is a plus for Japanese stocks, while higher bond yields in the U.S. can stoke concern money will be taken away from emerging markets in Asia,” said Masaaki Yamaguchi, equity market strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s biggest brokerage by market value. “But I don’t think we will see a chaotic selloff because China has tried to stabilize the situation with policy tools.”
Treasuries declined and U.S. stocks gave up early gains yesterday as investors focused on an increase in the Fed’s interest-rate projections for next year. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today after the underlying equity gauge rose 0.1 percent yesterday.
Regional Gauges
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP), which includes Japan, fell 0.4 percent, pushed down by the yen’s slump, which cuts the value of Japanese shares in the dollar-denominated measure.
South Korea’s Kospi index declined 0.7 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.2 percent as a report showed the nation’s economy expanded 0.7 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, exceeding the 0.6 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Asian stocks rose yesterday for the first time in 10 days as China’s central bank joined its European counterpart in boosting liquidity. The move by the People’s Bank of China to provide 500 billion yuan ($81 billion) of three-month funds to the nation’s five largest banks will help overcome any pre-holiday cash crunch, though is unlikely to boost gross domestic product, according to economists at banks including Barclays Plc.
FTSE Outlook
To be frank its not really an ideal trading day today – it could do anything. That said, I have plotted the arrows for an early rise during the morning (IG are still pricing a No victory 80v20) and the some of the bookies have paid out already on a No vote win. The pivot is around 6782 again, and we have the bottom of the 20 day Bianca at 6763, and the 10 day at 6757 – maybe a small long at around that area if it were to get that low this morning could be fruitful. The moving averages on the 30minute are still bullish at the moment (10 minute too), which is why I went for an initial rise from this 6795 area.
Resistance isstill 6820, 6835 and 6840 – the latter is the top of the 30minute oblique line, and the top of a declining channel, so worth a small short around here, especially if it hits just as results start to come through and show Yes in the lead.
Going to be a jumpy day!!
Long closed @ 6790 🙂
As I’m in the office all day I thought it may be good to do a running check list.
Opening Range
6791-6776
Last Nite’s LOW 6773
8:35 6775 – RSI Value 19.15
8:35 6770 – RSI “Buy”
(PP S1 = 6758 Fib PP S1 6760)
LOW 6769
This move 6786 – 6769 / 50% = 6778.5
Supertrend – Down = 6784
9:05 Positive ABC+ D move (Higher High)
9:10 MACD + & RSI close above 50
DAX / CAC Spike Higher
9:10 This move 6776 -6789 / 50% = 7783.5
9:30 UK Retail Sales
Still thinking we will get a sell off today leading up to the close. 1st results not expected till 1am, although we will get exit polls at 10pm. So any action will be tomorrow. Today is a day to stay on the sidelines or take risk off.
Hoping for the FTSE to be near 6725 tonight which probably now is unlikely but depends on the data releases in tbe UK and US. Tomorrow, once the Nos unfortunately win, expecting a short lived relief rally of approx 1.25% to hit 6825.
I was looking for a buy order at 6720. It would be very nice
Bouncing castle 🙂
As I’m in the office all day I thought it may be good to do a running check list.
Opening Range
6791-6776
Last Nite’s LOW 6773
8:35 6775 – RSI Value 19.15
8:35 6770 – RSI “Buy”
(PP S1 = 6758 Fib PP S1 6760)
LOW 6769
This move 6786 – 6769 / 50% = 6778.5
Supertrend – Down = 6784
9:05 Positive ABC+ D move (Higher High)
9:10 MACD + & RSI close above 50
DAX / CAC Spike Higher
9:10 This move 6776 -6789 / 50% = 7783.5
Supertrend – Up = 6775
9:20 Closes above opening range – Resistance ahead 6800 – 6803
9:30 UK Retail Sales
FTSE/4 hrs. — Negative bias; expecting sell signal. Out all day — have fun! 😀
Morning all
Software gave buy at 6783 target 6817
Senu – No to Q
There appears to be a problem with software – regarding early morning Signals.
I can only think / deduce that this is a result of lack of sufficient data.
One thing the software also does – ( only found this last night ) – it gives a Buy / Sell probability.
So for today – 75 % buy to 25% sell
lets see how that pans out.
Hugh
Glad to see your detailed info-pack.
More people should do this. Give their interpretation. Not only does it give others a guide but also gives an opportunity for others to question and give their take. We are all on a learning curve – so all this opens eyes.
The – I bought at 6900 and sold at 6660 – is really preety useless. Back your calls guys & ( sue )
Thanks mate 🙂
Yes true RC, which I try to do but from a fundamentals perspective. Retail Sales miss estimates but still strong. Market unmoved so expect gentle decline through the morning.
New target – 6836 & 48
Coupled that with a 75 : 25 Bias – for Long
lets see!
From a personel assessment of the charts –
1. Downside risk – Minimal => market expected to go higher – Intraday & short term
2. Interpreting the Scottish results from chart as it stands – A definite No
So Coronation of King Salmon – looks to be off.
Interesting to see if it wobbles at 6817
9:30 UK Retail Sales +.4% m/m
9:36 FTSE 6803 Touches RSI 70 – Close RSI Long
DAX & CAC Moving higher
Supertrend 6787
FTSE Being carried up with CAC & DAX ??
Approaching R1 6815 & Resistance at 6815
RSI >70 – Possible Short here would prefer 6815
5 Min Chart by the way
50 pts in 60 mins
Glad I just closed out my DOW short from yesterday for 50 points. I always try to run my profits but haven’t been successful or learned the trick yet. Either its stopped at b/e or turns into a losing trade.
My EUR/USD trade closed at b/e
No trades at the moment.
Approaching R1 6815 & Resistance at 6815
RSI >70 – Possible Short I would prefer 6815
9:47 : Short 6815.
So we got 6817 – Now a blast to 6836 – Looks very probable
RC – There is such strong resistance here 6820
Also – there wasn’t a “Close” above 6817.(I’m not sure why 6817 is important anyhow **!!>??)
It is important to let candles close above certain levels…
good one RC
Badly wrong today…..haha! But it shows the importance of fundamentals. Can’t ignore them even if relying purely on technicals. Need to know when to trade at least….and what can move the markets.
GLA.
9:30 UK Retail Sales +.4% m/m
9:36 FTSE 6803 Touches RSI 70 – Close RSI Long
DAX & CAC Moving higher
Supertrend 6787
FTSE Being carried up with CAC & DAX ??
Approaching R1 6815 & Resistance at 6815
RSI >70 – Possible Short I would prefer 6815
9:47 : Short 6815.
Move 6769 – 6815 / 50% = 6792
Supertrend + 6797
Hugh
From my personal anslysis – I would agree with you regarding the resistance at 6820.
No sell signal on the software – However. – it seems to be still targetting 6836 !
So what do i know !
Hugh
Like your Logical Technical Approach. Really Sound. Like it.
I can’t really see why 6837 is earmarked apart from it being R2 today.
Maybe that is it….
(P.S. I don’t mind if it moves higher – I have several positions above 6825 that I need to close when appropriate)
6840 is probably too.
Set my price and went long @70 – perfect! Shame i didn’t stick to my target and quit on it early. Still, after this painful week take the 25p and go again.
Yeah, when it’s going up like this, nobody wants to go long any more at these levels. FTSE is better, it has room till 6900. What Dow has: only sky.
I will more likely stay on sidelines today too because I don’t think Dow will be much affected by elections and who knows what their action will be, and FTSE could be also unpredictable. However I agree with Nick on his chart today, that was my thinking in the early morning.
9:47 : Short 6815.
Move 6769 – 6815 / 50% = 6792
Supertrend + 6797
9:59 DAX & CAC moving higher
10:10 FTSE 6815 Resistance (close 3 times at this level)
Closed my long this morning. Been in and out all month fruitfully. I am adamant that tonight will be a no vote but I am not trading it. The results will be out of hours and the SB firms will have some fun bouncing it around. To be fair IG did send out a note to clients regarding volatility and to manage accounts accordingly which I thought was very responsible.
9:47 : Short 6815.
Move 6769 – 6815 / 50% = 6792
Supertrend + 6797
9:59 DAX & CAC moving higher
10:10 FTSE 6815 Resistance (close 3 times at this level)
10:21 : FTSE Closes < 6810
10:23 : Stops in B/e
Software signal – still holding with target as 6837
New Buy signal at 6801 & 6795 – ( This is first time – So not sure )
9:47 : Short 6815.
Move 6769 – 6815 / 50% = 6792
Supertrend + 6797
9:59 DAX & CAC moving higher
10:10 FTSE 6815 Resistance (close 3 times at this level)
10:21 : FTSE Closes < 6810
10:23 : Stops in B/e
10:27 RSI 56.77 – MACD Looks as if it will cross.
10:35 MACD – Negative RSI Trend Break 65…
DJI Moving Higher
DAX Moving Higher
10:43 : Stopped out 6815
Hugh
A very Logical Tech based trade.
Hugh
Would you trade this higher ?
Would you trade this higher ?
I’m thinking you mean is it worth going Long …
For me personally – the entry point is not right (chart perspective).
I should have waited for the candle to close >6815.
I’m trying to multi task – so can’t always watch the screens
RJ, are you still holding dow short? Shorted dow @ 17210
sorry RJ, just noted your msg
yeah Senu..I thought of holding it initially then changed my morning and was sure it would test R1 so closed my short for 50 points which I think is a good move now 🙂
Uhhh, hands are itching to go short on Dow, uhh, better not.
if short, it’s better 17238 or something. don’t feel like shorting yet.
should have shorted, hahaha, for a short time trade. well done, Senu. Please don’t laugh, I missed it for a purpose. I hate shorting the tops.
17206 R1
oh, sorry, I didn’t put the levels yet, you are right, however I was thinking more of the yesterday’s high 17217.5 and that’s what i was going to short. but i miss it (LOL)
10:43 : Stopped out 6815
10:50 Note to myself: I should have waited for the candle to close >6815.
11:00: FTSE closes above 6815 – RSI Breaks Trend – MACD Switches +
Chart Resistance 6822 = R1 6815 — Fib R2 6816 Next Levels : 6837 &
( Fib R3 )6837
Supertrend Positive = 6804
DJI / CAC / DAX move higher
I think it’s nothing to do with candles, the price just returned for a DT. Personally think it will go down now on FTSE (but not trading it). You act as you think.
6820 is acting as resistance. I’m out of DAX. Happy with that, but not risking more time, before the elections. I still think the trend is up in the longer term, but I’m looking to buy in another dip, spx, dax or ftse
By the way, the 50 ma daily chart on DAX in mid day is turning finally to positive
I now have a short on Dow at 17215.
My short term target is 17160 – Pivot area. It would be nice if we get there before the US Opens.
That’s the one I was thinking off. Great job.
11:45 Congestion Zone 6817- 6806.
Trade Between these Areas
Software update
6801 – signal triggered entry
target unaltered @ 6837
Shorted Dow 17220 got stopped out earlier nasty hit.trying again couldn’t stop myself.
Tell me your trick!
I would have gone short there too, all stuck up (things i use) except courage. 🙂
it was setting up nicely at 11.43
Get Dow-n with the trumpets.
Closed Dow
me too 🙂 no risk
Anyone here trade in Gold?
Yes senu, looking to go long at 1200 with wide stop min stakes. Gold has good support around that area. If 1200 breaks then we are looking at 1000 or less.
ok. thanks sam. might get a chance after referundum.
And dollar is reaching the Jul 2013 top. I placed an order at 1183 +- the bottom.
I have closed my Dow short for 10points.
Jobless came in strong….so Dow rallying weakly……next up Philly at 3.
Software update
Sorry guys – Nothing
Same – 6801 – Triggered Buy target 6837
So we seem to be still looking for a move higher.
Unless anybody else has any good reasons to short
RC – will depend on the Philly Business outlook out in 15 mins. Market expecting 24. If it comes in strong like last time may give this bull run another shot in the arm. Otherwise FTSE could sell off into the close as expected as people take risk off before the referendum.
Javed
Charts are looking very strong.
Can’t see this market looking south at all.
Philly or the referendam.
Strongly suggesting that a “No” victory is a foregone result.
Also the software is 1: 3 bias as a buy.
Yes true. Although wouldn’t put all my faith in charts……it’s fundamentals which drive markets. At this rate we could be above 6900 tomorrow.
so is there anybody contemplating of leaving a position open overnight ?
If so – which way ?
If you were take a gamble it would have to be short? If short and it’s an unexpected yes vote – brilliant.
If no – that’s expected so you’d go short anyway?
Is anybody tempted to short?
Are you tempting to go short, just because you miss the bottom or is just technical ?
There was a thought, a if i did I would be in a profit now. I noticed the price 17138 as possible entry. So wanted to short. but it was risky as usual.
Looks like a good chance to short now Jack with a little bit of risk.
wouldn’t be a good entry after all
yes agree..My shorts not looking good..probably will touch 17300 I guess..
I am short Jack Dow Avg 17220
DAX 9683 – 7 point Stop
We dont get such rises in a series. Probably short makes sense …
Anyone for GOLD at 1185-1180 ? The bottom from the last swings. Dollar is also reaching the 2013 July Top, when Gold reach +- 1180 for at least 2 times.
Yes PMS, that’s area am looking to long with wide stop and small stake for a small bounce, but my gut feeling is 1180 will break and 1000/900 will be touched(may be in dec).
don’t think so. unless dollar always break the top
Mlawerence01
Could you try and explain – once again – your trading methods.
I have read it over & over – but it’s very difficult to understand.
I didn’t say to anyone as it was juts a little scalp 52-34. just needed to work out one of my entries i keep suggesting. otherwise what’s the point of this game. adios amigos, till tomorrow. GL all with voting results.
Adios Jack
RJ, you still short in dow?
Yes Senu…I think it might test 17300. My shorts not looking good.
See you guys
He who dares to leave a position on – You are brave.
From the charts & software – Looking very Bullish.
Going to the supermarket to stock up on Scotch,
Not sure why – as the “no” to the right have it
GBP is quite strong. Anyone shorting ?
ahahahaha, you told me ? When ? Are you kidding me ?
Go around the corner to see if I’m there
you remind me a character on twitter. It was quite amusing to read it. I think was FTSEDAYTRADE or something, don’t recall.
I wonder why….ahahahahahaha… maybe to make fun of you
Short dow @ 16253
Hope it falls before close
that guy made you bad luck
I am out at 64, looks like tomorrow will be bullish
Volumes were low today as people opted to stay on the sidelines. Expect tomorrow to be manic…..
RJ, have you closed your short? any one holding positions for tomorrow?
Short ftse seems reckless. Isn’t it a loaded spring just waiting to catch up with US after tonight’s vote? I’m short Dow and S&P, long apple
Senu, yes I was stopped out 17261. 40 points lost there.
GBP rallying, even before the results. Greed at all time highs
That is better RJ. Only heavy weighters can hold. 🙂
Here it goes….as expected we hit 6900…..going strong today. What is interesting is the impact on the US when the referendum never really held it back.
Still bearish for October though…..so expect these gains to be given up in the next 2 weeks.
Morning All & Javed
Looks like King Salmon has to wait a bit longer.
Javed – your statement yesterday – Fundamentals drive the markets. Totally agree with you, But the charts usually have it written all over – BEFORE the events. This is the only advantage of charts. Something Visible – rather than conjecture.
But what the hell – now the real fun starts. Stautus Quo – & Politics. Um!
lets go back to the charts – any day.
you are right. The charts tell more than fundamentals. Everything was already written in charts, since before yesterday.
200lost on the bell..ughh shoot me.
cannot believe you went short, firstly, secondly, left the trade over night when everybody suggested not to do so. excitement or what?
There we go: 900 again.
That’s why I said: I WILL NOT GO SHORT after that spike the other day. Dow was 17150 then, look where it’s now: 17350
Shorting the market is not a great idea at the tops. It’s very hard to pick the top.
Software Signal
Buy @6843
Um !
RC – I think that’s a fine entry point …
FTSE Overnight Hi 6898
SOld at 6888
Series of lower highs since 5.35 AM
6:35 Base 6885
Trend Line Break at 7:30 at 6878
Trend Line Break at 8:00 at 6856
Closed Sell at 6861
8:05 RSI BUY Signal
Guess the big thing is will we see 6843 ??
Just a reminder….
Put a few trades in here and there – it helps to give you some perspective .
For example put an order in to go Long at 6843 and Short Order 6840.
Give it time to the next inflection point , one or the other will bring results depending on which works – then repeat the process and so on …
You have to get used to trading ….
It’s all about the next 1000 trades..
Don’t disagree RC. However charts are a good indicator of sentiment but it is news that ultimately drives direction. Unfortunately the future is not ours to see so predictable events at a predicted time are relatively easy to factor in….eg elections, economic data (to a degree) but left field event bewilders everyone – 9/ 11, wars, earthquakes etc.
Anyway good luck to everyone to went long. I’m in bit of pain on my short….50 points but nothing too drastic. The rally today hasn’t been as strong as expected – but it has been approx 120 points from yesterday’s low in total.
Let’s see what the US does when it wakes up.
You are not afraid that FTSE will break in next weeks the all time highs and leave behind the 6xxxx “forever” ?
What is your target on that short ?
I closed my DAX yesterday morning after that early euphoria. This has been a very frustrating year, but nevertheless better than loosing. All my trades have been correct but I have been cutting my gains with 1-2 days delay.
My two most frustrating trades were this one on DAX, because of Scot elections and on SPX before the EU elections and US bank holiday, when it broke in an holiday the 1900 mark.
And both I saw the daily 50 ma turning positive in mid day and instead of trusting in my indicators 100%, I preferred to catch one rabbit than two running
Should I change my strategy for my next trade and wait a little longer after I see my indicators turning ? That’s what I will do next time, even if this will be again before a major event, which in both cases were.
But what irritates me, is that in both those 2 trades, the daily 50 ma, which in both were negative, flat… just turned positive, before a major event. How could be more difficult to make a decision than that ? And what about the coincidence ? Is like the markets are playing with you, making fun of you…
Shouldn’t it have been setting a “Long” above 6825/30 –
Kind of thinking it was text book stuff.
Missed the top by 2 points at 6900 why I had the Limit set for my Longs.
PMS – Sorry I think you were discussing the DAX …I was talking FTSE…
Maybe your not using enough positions…
With one or two positions it is kind of “binary” – you’re either in it or not.