Good morning, I hope you had a good weekend. The FTSE continues to be rather jumpy and will be all week int he run up to the Scottish vote not he 18th. Polls are neck and neck still, with the lead chopping and changing – a bit like sentiment for the FTSE and USD/GBP. Short, long, no short, no long etc! Sunday evenings open saw a dip down to 6755 but then a little climb back to just below Fridays support (6786) at 6783. Friday was a bit of a slow one – bulls never managed to break that 6818 despite a few goes, while the 6786 support was virtually tested after hours, but not by enough for the long to trigger (I had removed the order by then anyway), and did bounce back to 6800. I expect its going to be jumpy all week, as will Sweden after the krona weakened 0.4 percent to 9.2704 per euro today. The three-party Social Democratic opposition bloc won 43.6 percent of the vote in an election, versus 39.5 percent for the government’s coalition, with 97 percent of ballots counted. The Social Democrats must now garner support from other parties to form a majority.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell with U.S. equity-index futures, Australia’s dollar weakened to a more-than five-month low and copper slid after Chinese factory and retail data added to evidence a slowdown is deepening. Brent crude oil dropped to a two-year low.
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 1 percent by 1:11 p.m. in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng ChinaEnterprises Index dropped 1.5 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 0.4 percent after the U.S. gauge dropped 0.6 percent Sept. 12. The Aussie retreated a sixth day while Indonesia’s rupiah weakened to a two-month low versus the dollar. Crude in London and New Yorksank at least 0.6 percent. Copper fell 0.9 percent. Sweden’s krona weakened as the country faced a hung parliament. Gold climbed from an eight-month low.
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc cut its 2014 estimate for Chinese economic expansion to 7.2 percent from 7.6 percent after August industrial output growth was the weakest since the global financial crisis. Factory data is due in the U.S., where the fastest increase in retail sales in four months bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will signal a move toward interest-rate increases at a meeting this week. The Bank for International Settlements warned international borrowing and low volatility are increasing risk for emerging-market assets.
“The Chinese data was not ideal at all,” said Mao Sheng, an analyst at Huaxi Securities Co. in Chengdu. “If the Fed were to raise rates earlier than expected, that wouldn’t be good for Asia stocks as there will be an outflow of funds to the U.S.”
All 10 industry groups on the Asia Pacific excluding Japan stocks gauge fell today, led by energy and financial companies. Japanese markets are closed today for Respect for the Aged Day.
Hang Seng
The gauge of Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, which fell the most since March last week, is heading for its lowest close in more than a month. The Hang Seng Index dropped 0.8 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.1 percent.
Factory production in China rose 6.9 percent in August from a year earlier, the statistics office reported Sept. 13, down from 9 percent in July and below the 8.8 percent growth predicted by economists. It was the slowest pace outside the Lunar New Year holiday period of January and February since December 2008. Growth in fixed-asset investment slowed to 16.5 percent, while retail sales expanded 11.9 percent, trailing the 12.1 percent rate estimate and easing from 12.2 percent in July.
Reports last week showed a second straight monthly decline in imports and a 40 percent drop in the broadest measure of new credit. Growth in gross domestic product may ease to between 6.5 percent and 7 percent in the third quarter should data for September also be weak, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
Fed Meeting
The Fed, which meets Sept. 16-17, is considering the timing of rate increases and whether to revamp its public guidance on the path of rates. The central bank has said since March thatinterest rates would stay low for a “considerable time” after it completes a monthly bond-buying program that’s on track to end this year.
Sales at U.S. retailers climbed 0.6 percent in August, the fastest pace in four months, while another report showed consumer confidence rose more than estimated.
FTSE Outlook
Its going to be pretty confusing this week, mainly on reactions to polls, sentiment etc. With the S&P well off from its 2012 now, i expect a bounce as that is just hitting its 20 day support, as are the FTSE and Dax with the 20 day Raff, along with the 10 day Bianca at 6772. Basically I think early this week will see some bull, then a lot of jitters come Thursday. friday depends entirely on the result – Yes vote bad, No vote good – but we shall see. Watching the S&P we should see a climb bcd to 1997/2000 then a dip again. For today, 6786 has been broken so the next support is 6772 (bottom of the 10 day Bianca) but with last night move to 55, I think we may dip down to 6760. As such a small long there to target 6800 could be a good play, as we also have the 20 day Raff at 6755. Its pretty confusing, but if that breaks then I expect a dip towards 6700.
On the flip side, if the bulls break the pivot then 6820 is next resistance with 6830 and 6864 above that.
Morning all
Not sure whether anybody is interested in the Softwares take on this market
woooooooooooooooooooooooooow. here it goes
too late to post this trade
The software gave a buy signal at 6766 & 6777 Target 6815
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New buy signal at 6790 target 6815
LOL, better with Nick and his arrows.
No wonder they say: ‘The only free cheese is in the mouse trap’.
This thought came to me in the middle of Saturday. And that was ‘As old as the hills’.
I tweaked the settings over the weekend and backtested it over many years.
I have set it at an average setting. This seemed best as it gave the better signals and more impt – consistancy over the period. the signals will probably give late signals – when the market is fast – and faster signals when slow – i think. but overall preety good. The software does not give stoplosses. Been talking with the guys who modified the algos. Stoplosses – he says – are arbritary and really an opposite signal is where you get out. lets see how it goes.
Jack 2
No doubt – Nicks arrows are correct.
I am in no way trying to dispute anything.
It is a software – and I am just commenting
as the signals come – I am making no judgement on it.
If you feel it’s distracting – then let me know – I’ll turn off
my comments.
RC, I have no issues you posting the signals.
I didn’t comment on your software. tbh I didn’t read your posts before posting mine.
I was commenting on something else.
Please, post as you wish as there’s people interested.
Software – Buy Triggered at 6790 – Target 6815
Well the prise is now 6785 – so looks like it aint going to work – ( personal comment )
Status of signal – Same
quite possible
I think Dow will get to 16989 before falling.
I have opened a position Long EUR/USD 12920 based on 50% retrace on the pin bar signal on weekly – Target is 100 pips – my stop is at 12860
Jack, dow hit 16989 🙂 I was thinking of going long early morning. missed it 🙁
Oh, I just noticed, thanks. All depends on US reaction.
Believe me I am more shocked than anybody else.
————————-
The Software’s Signal – to buy ay 6790 – well – it worked.
But more of a suprise – 6815 as target.
What can I say !!
Update
– No More new signals – nor new target for this trade.
I told you: quite possible.
RC — Looks like software working well — well done
Wire……
My only contribution was to turn it on……
& to be honest – a bit suprised that it worked.!!
DAX Long 9662 – Stop 9655 – target 6700
Ah closed it.
why RJ?
Senu,
Didn’t feel comfortable as it didn’t break 9670, came out with 3 points. Have you got any trades ?
DOW open might have pushed DAX up a bit(6700).
No, i am not into anything..
yes but it was a matter of where it would get first to my stop or target. I closed it as I had a very tight stop.
Well, it’s spot on on 16989. The question is – should I go short or not? Not yet decided.
Long at 10.48 would be a risk off 61.8%
I would wait till the DOW Open and see what happens around 17030-40 region if it gets there.
obviousely.
which time frame you use Jack2 ?
1 and 10 min
Whos long on the FTSE and whats your target?
you long mate?
No short for me. that was a missed long, that’s all. let’s see how US will play out.
Long Dow 17973 -Stop 17950.
Just an update – Long signal again at 6797
If this works – I’m going to eat my hat
Software has come up with a Target 6843 –
—- Funny I know —
Well the Long at 6797 has been triggered.
Just cannot see this trade working.
Near impossibility.
closed out this weird long scalp for 15 points in total of usual stake. just wanted to taste trading after weekend. it didn’t feel like long but it didn’t short either. so will wait for other days.
more likely short
now it reached 61.8, are you going long Dow RJ?
only joking.
I am long Jack with calculated risk and if it doesn’t work. I will close my trading screens for the day.
Long DAX 9650 – Stop 9639
it’s not even 50% there, a bit risky but who knows
Dow long @ 16960
you did managed after all. thought it was a good entry. still be cautious.
booked 30 pts 🙂
Senu, lol, what the reason this time? It wasn’t close to S1 at all.
time entry 🙂
That’s interesting. If I entered there it would be a feel entry. so i left this idea.
plus it was 61.8% – that would be a reason for me.
Stops at b/e
Looks like this software signal is toast & I keep my hat.
Looked like an impossible trade to succeed.
But nothing has changed – same signal Buy 6797
closed both longs on Dow and DAX.
Just to keep you updated.
Still the same signals.
I was expecting a sell signal to be triggered by now
But Nothing.
So not sure what & how to interpret this.
your trades are great.
have you ever thought of designing a software around it.
& probably automate it as well
Short DAX 9655 – Stop 9675
Short Dow 17995 – Stop 17045
17995 😉
that number might probably wipe my account out 🙂
Typo 16995 🙂 you know it guys..
Just another update.
The Buy signal – 6797 Never closed. It has remained as it is from 2.35.
Target also has remained the same 6843.
Can we regard this as a failure signal & trade. Don’t really know.
As I mentioneed last week – the signal reversal is the only way i can
consider the trade as a failure.
I do not want to tweak more with the settings.
Jim
If you are online – any suggestions.
You are the only one ( as far as i know )
who uses software to trade.
One thing about the software signals – which are a real help.
I really am not sure why it gave the signal to buy / sell. So
the fear – greed aspect does not arise. Whether this is beneficial
in the long run – cant answer that.
Just to add to this – I have used – Pivots for entry
or fib retracements – but it is so arbritary as is channel
trading & Moving Avg. What do you choose – S1 or R2 / 0.5% or 0.618% Retracement / 10 day Channel or 5 day / Ema/SMA – 20 or 200 ? . great if you hit it right. But what are the chances.
Right now the Ftse trade is 6797 is 6808 .
Was the entry at S1 or S2 or maybe SMA/EMA 30 or 56 or 10 day channel. Dont have a clue.
Any comments from anybody. As I seem to be going on & on like a broken record.
Didn’t look good for my shorts closed it for a small loss. Looks like a slow grind up going into the FED.
RentalCollection — Today was quite difficult I think — after the first buy at ≈08:45, ending around 10:00, the trend was rather flat with a bit of fluctuation around it. (I was out of action until late afternoon.) Generally I go with the max., min. and trend of the growth indicator shown in the chart, but algorithms are never perfect in terms of reading a series. You might get a sell signal about now, but the short term drift still seems to be up.
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zpsc89b39c8.png
As for the ftse it is a little bit directionless but drifting lower. I expect it to continue as such till tomorrow and then a sharp fall on Thursday at the close. Therefore I would suggest it would be near 6725 – 6750 by then. Of course it depends on the referendum as to whether it hits 6650 or 6800 on Friday. Overal though I’m bearish for October and remain so.
Morning all
Software issued a Buy order 6790 – Which is triggered
target 6834
Dont blame me – I’m only the messanger.
I’ve taken trade – ( 1st time ) – and feeling like I am crazy to beleive this.
But I must place belief in software & will close this trade – when either a reverse signal comes or it reaches a target . lets hope I can have the strength to do that.