6545, 6528, 6508 Support, 6573, 6611 Resistance

Good morning. Well that was rather close, had 6617 as resistance for yesterday and the high was 6616.8! Unfortunately that meant that the short order just missed, and the rest of the day was spent in decline, to se a low at 6528 -which will be a support area for today. The daily trends are still down, and the next Bianca support level of note is the bottom of the 10 day at 6508. Certainly been a weak start to October though will probably end strongly!

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index heading for a fifth day of losses, amid concern over the end of the Federal Reserve’s stimulatory bond-buying program and signs of weakness in the euro-area economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) slid 0.1 percent to 139.64 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo after retreating to a four-month low yesterday. The measure capped its biggest monthly drop in more than two years in September amid concern Chinese growth is slowing and that the Federal Reserve may increase U.S. interest rates sooner as it ends asset purchases. U.S. stocks tumbled yesterday, sending the Russell 2000 Index into a correction.

“The volatility in the global markets is likely to overwhelm risk assets,” Evan Lucas, a market strategist at IG Ltd. in Melbourne, said by e-mail. “Equities are going to feel the pinch of a market pullback.”

Japan’s Topix index dropped 1.3 percent, the biggest decline in almost two months. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.4 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.3 percent. Markets in Hong Kong remain closed today, while those in mainland China are shut through Oct. 7.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The measure lost 1.3 percent yesterday to its lowest close since Aug. 12. The Russell 2000 lost 1.5 percent, extending losses to more than 10 percent from a record reach in March, meeting the definition of a correction.

More than $200 billion in assets was erased from U.S. equity markets during the past three months, as stronger economic data fueled concern the Fed may raise interest rates sooner than anticipated. Hiring in the U.S. accelerated for the first time in three months, according to a private report before monthly payrolls figures due tomorrow.

Euro Stagnation
While U.S. factories capped their strongest quarter in more than three years, a gauge of manufacturing for the 18-nation euro area pointed to near stagnation. The European Central Bank is expected to announce today details of its plan to buy asset-backed securities after unveiled a series of stimulus measures to boost credit lending and combat the threat of deflation.

Hong Kong’s pro-democracy student leaders threatened to besiege government offices if demands for free elections and the resignation of the city’s top official aren’t heeded, as the government sought to start talks. Demonstrations swelled for a sixth day yesterday, with one student leader estimating the crowd at 9 p.m. at close to 200,000 people.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6573 so I am expecting resistance there today, with 6600 and the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6611 above that. I am not convinced it will break the pivot though as we also have the weekly PRT horizontal resistance at that level, and also the top of that 30 minute channel at around 6585. As such a short off the pivot could be good. Short the rallies for the moment still! The daily trends are still down and the bottom of the 10 day Bianca is 6508 – as such a long at this area might be good if you want to catch a bounce. It is also the bottom of the 30 minute channel. if that 6500 level breaks then the bottom of the Raffs at 6450 area will be the next likely stop!

I have put in an early rise to the pivot, mainly as the 10min looks a weak bull to start, but only if 6541 holds.

147 Comments

  1. I cleaned up a lot of the comments this morning. I did reply to your one Javed on yesterdays post, but for some reason it wasn’t appearing at the bottom of the comment list, but a few messages up instead. I deleted all the messages that contravened clauses 3.7, 4.1.3 and 5.2 in the terms and conditions that had been posted recently.

  2. Morning all
    tried to post earlier, in yest page, wouldnot go through.
    all the comments were not in order.
    anyway software gave sell signal at 6549 preety well just after 8am
    2 targets for that the famous 6529 and 6500.

  3. Hi Nick ,
    Gud morning ,
    I did sent email to you but didn get replay from you ,
    Which treading app you using .
    Like ig or pluss500 x y z?
    How much subscribe charges?
    Thx

  4. As you may be aware there were comments on the website over the past few days which have caused offence to one of the readers. May I take this opportunity to apologise for any upset, distress or offence caused on behalf of myself and the other contributors.

  5. I only read yesterdays posts, not from start of the week, so I’m not aware of what has happened.

  6. Nick
    On behalf of all the traders who habitat this netherspace, we take the bantering for what it is. Respect your formal legal stuff required to run a business. But relax, an apple tree is always going to produce an odd pear here and there. I think I speak on behalf of the rest of the apples (Guys hope you don, t mind for my assumption ) lets get the show on the road and start trading talk.

  8. Nick
    Dont worry too much about all the events which have taken place over the past few days. We on behalf of the users of this forum will formally accept your apolgies ( come on guys ..give a helping hand here). Theres going to be a bit of unruly bantering, but dont take it seriously. I understand your legal obligations and really I am sure that we are alll thankful for this side of your business. Its free and gives us lot an arena to release our pent up emotions while trading. So I think I speak on behalf of one & all , its ok .
    So lets get back to what we do best …………

  9. So come on HUGH , JIM. , PMS, JAVEED , SENU. , JACK2,
    lets rock & roll and give your take on the MAAAAAAAAAAAARKET.

  10. Right U Lot all be good from now on and stop upsetting our Nick
    other wise some one will be sleeping with the FISH 🙂

  11. Guys I am on the short trade from 6549 flagged by the software
    looking at 6500 now as the target.
    New target has now also been flagged up 6496.
    I will hold this trade till there ( hopefully )

  14. Euro Zone ECB Draghi @1.30 could well make markets Rally
    sit tight till then keep your powder dry

  16. RJ
    Thanks. Yes it was just in the nick of time. I was seriously thinking of quitting, but you know how it is ……. one last try at the markets. I am thankful that I did. Hopefully the software will be able to handle the many different types of markets.

  17. Hi Hugh,
    Thanks for all the good advice! The last graph was purely exploratory; looking under a stone pointed out by RentalCollection. You have nudged me towards line representation of price. I am interested mainly in direction and momentum and actually prefer line graphs also. I quite like my RMinMax bands — seems to me they give some context to price movement and I expect to write them into a few queries. By the way, I am jealous of your italic and bold text! How do you do it? 😀
    FTSE to flatten out or rebound slightly over next hour or two?
    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zpsefbe7651.png

  18. Correct me if I’m wrong, but FTSE tends to reverse after 10:30-11:00.
    It it does with confidence and not dead cat bounce, that normally tends to move markets in another direction till end of session.
    Talking ofc in the short term – intraday

      1. Thanks Senu, I thought I had that feeling. Did not made any study, only that sense of sentiment reverse in mid morning on FTSE, after these 1-2 years following it

  19. JIM
    Morning. I think you are looking in the right direction. Simplify your whole approach.

  20. PMS
    I remember a successful ( well he said he was) give thess times as the reversal times for uk markets.
    8.15 – 8.30
    9.45 – 10.00
    11.30 – 12.00
    1.15 – 1.30
    2.45 – 3.00
    4.15 – 4.30
    test it out first.
    I did and it did when it did.

  21. cashed in overnight on my Long on DAX and FTSE for 15 points or thereabout. Just went short DAX 9361 ,target 30 odd points

    1. Closed it @73 as I can’t be bothered to take a punt on data outcome. Perfect day to not trade this so perhaps I best concentrate on other matters.

  22. hehe, Senu I told you, you shorted too early yesterday =) Currently long @9348 DAX. Personally not intent on selling these rallies with the market being swayed by data regardless of results, bad news might be good all over again…ugh

        1. System stop set at 50 pts, but that’s excessive in practice I think! Could be a duff signal so advise tight stop if you go with it. No target — just hope to get direction right!

  27. the linear regression channel (started at 8:00) has turned up on the 5 min chart. Just comeback to see it

    1. Well there is not going to be any change on the Interest rate. Might see more moves when Draghi’s press conference starts.

  35. Hands up. Did not see that closed out for a loss of 20 pips. Will wait, but my shorting days are over…scraping the barrel personally.

    1. and adding, viewing this as longer term buying territory here so going longggg average @9299 now

  37. Damn – should have stuck to guns and sold on 10 point rises – buy on 20 point falls. Made a small turn though and now happy to wait for this to settle down.

  39. SPX gave a strong sell signal at 13:35 with the sweet spot at 65,06, higher close at 1951.3 and MA50 and 20 basically flat.
    Unfortunately I was not at my desk.
    Still collecting info. The MA’s basically flat or not in a strong slope are the best ones

  41. Nick 6520 is the intermediate support. FTSE needs now to hold this one so it can target the next resistance now at 6570+-. That’s the prorealtime supports and for now it’s holding

  43. I don’t know if anyone here was listening to Draghi but boy he just sounds like a complete moron. Astonishing we put any faith in him or the ECB at all! anyway lets see if we get a little rally now that’s done

      1. 3 x 15 points scalp, that’s hard work and not tempted for more. going to watch proceedings a bit now but really would like to go long for longer term (end of month) at these levels

    1. Agreed Sam. Bear mentality now and S&P’s opened no lower than yesterday so no reason for a rally yet.

  50. Hi guys
    I closed the trade ( ref 9.51 am ) @ 6500.
    That software signal was preety good.

      1. Hi Dutch, Dax will have to bounce from 9230 else it will test 9080, 9043. I wouldn’t want to go long at these levels may be wait a bit. I am still in shorting the rallies mode.

  55. SPX signal activated at 1938. Stop 10 points. MA’s a bit slope, but not to much. Let’s see

  56. The problem I still have is I do not have any target. Only bring Stop to b/e and close when I see it’s ok for me

  62. Sellers rushing for exit but S&P’s weak and FTSE 400 points lower than Scottish result. Not too much risk buying down here?

    1. yes but traded my position down without loss to 9226 and may add a bit. happy to be long here, I have time.

    2. what about you? I just prefer to be long in this type of market, but admit I might be getting this all wrong, we’ll see if this 9200 is any resistance at all I guess as probably US will go a bit lower still today.

  66. If this works in a day like this (with a strong bearish sentiment for quite a while)… what will do in a normal day.
    Statistics included trending days and volatility days but not yet in a medium term bearish market

      1. not as silly as going long on the DAX! average 9202 now though but this is tapping into my own central bank now!

        1. You never know may be this could be the last buying opportunity before Dax heads up to 10000 again.

  73. Brutal out there! Finally 10 months into the year we have some decent volatility like last year. Half tempted to buy a Dec 6750 call at £300 a pop…….

    1. Javed, I am thinking if this is the start of 10% correction I speculated early this week. of course I didn’t hold my position on Dow 🙁

      1. It can be… I’ve been saying here since start of the year, that October could be the worst month, with liquidity going away and end of QE.
        But the storm will pass, as everything else

      2. Not sure about the Dow but considering where we were on the morning of the referendum – approx 6900, we pretty much 8% down already on the FTSE.

  74. Just a small note guys.
    The 6432 area is strong support. Under normal circumstances it will hold any move lower.
    so bear that in mind. But this market is very bearish – so be careful.
    Just to also ztate that I cashed in mybchips at 6500 so I am not in a trade right now.

  77. Snp didn’t drop as much I expected, 1900 on snp, ftse sub 6400 and Dax sub 9000 am looking for.

  81. Phew got out of that one, but boy that was getting a little tricky! Averaged it down to 9202 and then closed at 07. Going to need to lie down now… Oh and come tomorrow this will have looked like a proper good long no doubt oh well..

  82. Bad day today was down -70 pip, managed to scalp back 30 points. So down £300 odd, wasn’t expecting another -200 down day on DAX

  86. Well I assume it will retest 6525 before any further drop! Probably not today but most likely tomorrow

  87. My Dec 6750 call coming into my black box. Almost recovered the spread and into profit. About a 30% Delta I would say.

Comments are closed.