Good morning. Having bottomed out at 6425 on Thursday things are looking a bit more positive now and we should be on for a more positive week with a bullish end to October. Still think around 6750 is possible for the month end, though the FTSE will need to break through that 25ema on daily, currently at 6669. Before that the top of the 10 day Bianca channel is 6559 – initial resistance for today. Fairly quiet on the financial news front over the weekend, with Asia climbing overnight as protestors started talks with the government.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, rebounding from a six-day slide in the regional index, while Hong Kong shares climbed as protesters began talks with the government. The dollar was near a four-year high after American payrolls data and gold slid to a 2014 low as platinum and palladium tumbled.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6 percent by 1:02 p.m. in Tokyo, as Japan’s Topix index jumped 1.5 percent after the yen’s biggest drop for 2014 on Oct. 3. The Hang Seng Index climbed 0.5 percent and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futuresrose 0.3 percent. The greenback climbed against the Korean won and was at 109.61 versus the yen. Gold fell as much as 0.7 percent as platinum and palladium sank at least 1.4 percent.
U.S. employers added 248,000 workers to payrolls last month, exceeding the 215,000 increase predicted by economists as the jobless rate fell to a six-year low. Hong Kong student-protest leaders held preparatory talks with government officials as some barricades were removed, allowing civil servants to return to their offices. German factory-order data and reports on U.K. home prices and retail sales are due today.
“We’ve had good news from the U.S. which should place the market well,” Mark Konyn, chief executive officer of Cathay Conning Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, said on Bloomberg TV. “It’s a critical week for the Hong Kong protests. For the rest of the year, we’re going to see more volatility, particularly around the currency markets triggered by the weaker yen and what’s going on in the dollar.”
About the same number of stocks rose as fell today on the Hang Seng Index, which dropped 2.6 percent last week, the most since March. A gauge of Chinese companies listed in the city swung between a gain of 0.6 percent and a loss of 0.5 percent. Mainland venues, closed since Oct. 1 for national holidays, reopen on Oct. 8.
While demonstrator numbers faded from the tens of thousands that gathered over the weekend, many of the barriers that have shut shops, closed schools and hindered commuters haven’t been cleared. Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying told protesters in a televised speech on Oct. 4 that authorities would take “any necessary action” to restore order, and opening access to the government complex by today was “the most immediate thing.”
The Kospi index slipped 0.1 percent in Seoul, resuming trading after a holiday Oct. 3. The highest-ranking North and South Korean security advisers met for the first time at the weekend, agreeing to push for improved relations between the two countries.
Topix Gain
The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.5 percent, with New South Wales state, where Australia’s main bourse is located, observing a public holiday. Markets in India, Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore are closed today, to resume tomorrow.
Japan’s Topix is rebounding after capping its first weekly retreat since August. Exporters provided the biggest boost, with Toyota Motor Corp. adding 2.2 percent, after the yen slumped 1.2 percent on Oct. 3 versus the U.S. dollar after the unemployment rate in the world’s biggest economy dropped to the lowest since July 2008.
Payrolls Data
The Fed, which is on track to end its stimulatory bond buying program this month, has said key borrowing costs will be kept low for a “considerable time” after purchases end, though any move will depend on the strength of the economy.
The increase in nonfarm payrolls for August was revised up to 180,000, the U.S. Labor Department said Oct. 3. The unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent from 6.1 percent in August. Average hourly earnings failed to grow in September from a month before, the data showed.
“Strong U.S. jobs data suggests the U.S. economy is recovering faster than the Federal Reservehas anticipated,” David Croy, head of markets research in Wellington at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd., wrote in a client note today. “Wages growth remains disappointing and that will play into Fed Chair Yellen’s dovish hands, but the pendulum in favor of normalization is swinging toward action.”
FTSE Outlook
Todays pivot is 6505 so there is support there, though the IG pivot is slightly higher at 6514. With a cluster of supports at that level, as well at 6520 I think that might offer up initial support after a dip of 6545 to start the day. Above that we have the top of the 10 day Bianca channel at 6559, with 6615 above that where we have the top of the 30 minute channel. For today I am in a buy the dips mood, with that 6515 area looking a good long spot, with a stop just below 6500. If 6500 were to break then 6470 and 6440 are likely supports, the latter being the bottom of a PRT channel that has appeared but we are not currently within.
So, I think after an initial dip from 6545 we will see some bulls come back in, as the bounce from the lows last week starts to get some momentum. The only slight concern is that despite the rises on Friday, the 30 minute EMA lines are still pretty close, so a cross back to bearishness would be quite easily done. This afternoon a lot will depend on the US and the S&P – its nearing the 25ema on daily at 1979 – if the bulls can break that it should take the FTSE to that 6615, whereas a drop back will see us testing the lower supports at 6470, is the S&P drops to 1961.
Gud Morning everyone ,
Hope everyone fine
Moazali82,
How is your trade? what you got? long or short?
Long bro
Software Buy Signal – 6529 Target 6586
Cheers RC, have got support 6521 too
RC, when did you get this signal? early morning ?
about 5-10 mins before I posted it. ( 10 am ish )
Thanks RC- I’ve put my order in !
I have Fib Pattern levels using 6545 – 6563 (this morning’s range)
1.5 & 2 % Fibs
Overhead 6572 & 6581
Below 6536 & 6527
does your software recommend SL too?
Thanks RC 🙂
Morning All,
Hope everyone had a good weekend?
RC – I went short @60 was looking at closing for about 30points – will it make it to 30 or was 42 just then my best chance?
I think i’ll wait it out and see.
Your short is work well. you make it. Where the ftse level it will be drop?
Hugh
Thanks for the info. – regarding the 6529 Area.
Nick also has his – Support area about there.
Unfortunately I am not sure what the support is coming from.
But obviously something preety strong is there – for the Buy Signal.
Lets hope it works as well as it did last week.
does your software work on Dax or any FX?
Sorry RC just seen when you posted. Went short @60 so price 25-75. I will wait for it to hit 25 to close.
Long from 6540. (?)
Good one Jim, I had an order around 20 area, missed this bounce 🙁
Hi Jim
I already exited the optimizer and started to backtested with the best variables. So far so good. But still having questions, concerning spreads
GL with that PMS. I suppose that the spread setting affects the profit calculation and probably the triggering of buy/sell commands — I just leave the spread box blank. Default is 2 points.
RC, this drop didn’t reach your buy area. Any comments?
Possibly in the next leg
6536 – 6557 – Fib Leg Dwn 6526
Senu
Software Buy 6529
I think I mentioned it many times last week, that while i was doing the analysis of the trades that the system gave – Most entries were within 3 points of the stated Buy / Sell price level. Some were accurate to the Point.
I am not sure what your Brokers is showing as the Low.
Also – The target is 6586 – The targets are also roughly within 3 points.
If you take the trade as such – 6586 – 6529 = 57. even if you discount
the spread of ( 3 + 3 ) – still gives a healthy 51points for the trade.
I do not want to tweak it anymore – for fear of messing – what appears
to be preety good signals.
FTSE – 6556
Ideal turning point unless it takes out 6563.
Hugh
There is no new Sell signals the software is giving.
It still is on the same Buy Trade 6529 to 6586.
So not sure about your signal.
I guess we’ re trying to second guess “the trend”.
Fib Targets Using 6536 Low & 6563 Hi
2 6590
1.764 6584
1.618 6580
1.5 6577
High 6563
0.764 6557
0.618 6553
0.5 6550
0.382 6546
0.238 6542
Low 6536
1.5 6523
1.61 6519
1.76 6515
2 6509
Short (5 Min Chart)
FTSE 6575
RSI >70
MACD>4
Rather frustratingly I didn’t take the one lower at 6536@10:45
Looks like i got greedy and missed taking my profit. We should get a second chance around 30.
Short @ 6561, 7 pt stop
out 🙁
PMS — Just a thought; have you thought of optimising the stop variables. I have never done this but I see no reason why it shouldn’t work. 🙂
😀 I had the same thought….the stop variables are as most important, or even more, as the indicators. I will give a try…now I’m using the code
// Stops and targets
SET STOP pTRAILING 4
Have deleted the Stop loss, as I understood earlier that the above code, works also as stop loss, starting below/above the price and increases/decreases 1,2,3… points at the same pace as price increases/decreases.
Using the 1 hour chart.
The gains are amazing after a while. It needs to be automated and let it run.
The losses, small, are when trend changes and only after the 2nd close candle, things start to work again in opposite side, etc.
Interesting — it sounds really good! I am giving my system a rest at the moment. Maybe I’ll try a trailing stop! 😀
Short @75
Hi RC,
I have been following the forum for a while now and find it very helpfull, I signed up to Syed last week, I got a short signal this morning (and haven’t heard of him since) and the market kept rising, so I had to cut in the end as I’m not working with a big a/c. You seem to be very reliable, so maybe you could post your next signal so hopfully I can get back to were I started, as I’m afraid to loss all!
Tks a lot
Think it was 6589 Pete as the target for the long
6586 in fact
It saids code trail does not work with that variable, after validating for optimizer
Did you try, if it works ?
PMS — I’ll have a look at it — did wonder if it would be allowed.
RC –
Respect !!
🙂 me too
Hugh
Blame it on the software.
Still amazes me.
I had to chase the price a bit – as I was also waiting at 6529
Finally managed to get in at 6537 ( thaks ok) Just closed it 6583
Tks Nick
Compared to the other indices, FTSE doing well. Is this rite?
Hi PMS —
SET STOP pTRAILING n does work, but seems to take up a lot of computing resource, so suggest optimising over a shorter run of data. I added n to the variables to be optimised and I ran the system at 4 hrs. over the month of September 2014. (You could I guess optimise separately for n, having fixed the other variables.) 1st trial — set the range of integers 2-30, step of 2. Result 30. 2nd trial — set the range 20-50, step of 2. Result 34. So that’s rather interesting. I need to find the code to enter a SELL when a BUY is stopped out and vice versa.
😀 you are right… with all the excitement, I placed the wrong label
Got a software signal to sell – But at 6608 !
As the market seems to be going down – not sure how to trade this.
1. Not sure if the market does not get there today – If the signal is valid?
2. Not sure whether it will work – for after market hours trade entry?
3. So if anybody uses this signal – Please use a stop.
4. One thing please avoid. Do’nt trade this market Up – thinking
” well if the signal is at 6608 – then the market has to get there ”
Itmay work – But the signal is to go short at 6608 – IF it gets there.
Funnily enough I think it will. I think its a long from this 75 level for a bit now
Nick
It sounds logical – I suppose – If a short is at 6608 – then it has to get there,
so go long . But I really am not sure. Till I test this assumption for sometime – I do not want to assume anything.
I agree as I had 6607 as a resistance level from this morning – its the top of the 30 min PRT channel, give or take
http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10/display_chartimage.phtml?name=svv739tfjf49fbntjlygufdvi&type=png
Gottchu. This sell could be coming from this resistance.
LoL
2. Not sure whether it will work –
I always seem to be asking myself that !
**
I’m probably stating the obvious
– but the small pullback to 6575 is a positive
– if it can break higher than 6587 …
Then it’s possibly game on fro 6608.
The other indicies just don’t look that good at the moment….
Dax especially!
Tks a lot for your advise RC
Hugh says:
October 6, 2014 at 1:33 pm
Short (5 Min Chart)
FTSE 6575
RSI >70
MACD>4
Rather frustratingly I didn’t take the one lower at 6536@10:45
Stops in ….
Fibs
High 6587
0.764 6575
0.618 6568
0.5 6562
0.382 6555
0.238 6548
Low 6536
Hugh
Try projection from your 0.5 – Higher
RC – Yes got those – 6613 –
Long @ 9190 DAX, tomorrow today’s loss recovered with news expected. A bit fishy DAX coming over 100 odd pips prior to that…then again it is overpriced.
i reckon bit more down side for dax, possibly, 9000/8900 area, in this leg down.
libbo2003 says:
October 6, 2014 at 1:34 pm
does your software work on Dax or any FX?
Libbo2003
Not sure, as I have not tested it. I do not trade Dax.
I will be trying it out in the FX – may be in a few weeks time.
I want to test it on 1 market first – so for now only the ftse
I am afraid.
Don’t be, seems fine!
Trades closed for the day as off home. Might even go further but +55points. Happy Monday all!
Good Trade ML
Long dow @ 950
out @ 995
You’re probably right about DAX breaching that 9000 area Sam. But for the next month I’ll be busy so opening long term rolling trades. With the intention of building of course. Started with a wee 10 pips will try and average out.
Yes ahwab, me too, opening long term longs on ftse, Dax and snp. Currently, long ftse 6438, 6500, Dax 9154. Will look to close them end of dec. well that’s the plan, let’s see.
Jim
323,6 Eur since 8am net with only 2 eur/point. Only in the backtest, but now in real time. If i had the overnight since yesterday, the gain is even more, but I intend to leave auto trade only between 8:00 and 17:00 or even a bit more. Still testing.