FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 17th June 2020
More than 600,000 Britons lost their jobs in the first two months of lockdown, according to an early analysis of HMRC payroll data. The figures were revealed as part of the Office for National Statistics’ latest report on the UK labour market, which showed Britain’s unemployment rate remained remarkably steady in April – even as warning lights flash elsewhere. In signs of a growing employment crisis, hours worked dropped 9pc, benefit claims surged to 2.8m, and vacancies continued to plunge.
The headline unemployment figure will have been heavily flattered by the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, which Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs said has left Britain’s labour market in a state of “suspended animation”. Figures released by the Treasury showed the total cost of the furlough scheme has passed £20bn.
London’s benchmark index closed 2.94pc higher at 6,242.79 while the FTSE 250 closed 2.20pc up at 17,464.70.
Powell
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has warned that it will be a “long road” that will leave the US economy “well short” of where it was in February. He added that a full recovery is unlikely until the public is confident the outbreak has been contained. Mr Powell later said that there is a tremendous amount of volatility in the labour market reports expects unemployment to decline.
Beijing Cases
Beijing has ordered all schools to close in an escalation of containment measures as it struggles to halt a new coronavirus outbreak which has already spread to neighboring provinces. The Chinese capital on Tuesday lifted its emergency response to level two and said that people will have to be tested for the virus before being allowed to leave the city. The total reported number of infections has reached 106, according to the National Health Commission, while cases linked to the Beijing cluster have already been reported in two provinces in China’s northern region. Meanwhile, China’s customs authorities have started testing all shipments of imported meat for the coronavirus. And salmon farmers have been hit by restrictions in China, where a new outbreak of the coronavirus was blamed on imported fish. In the U.S., Florida reported that new cases rose to the highest level since the pandemic began and Texas saw hospitalizations and new infections surge, more signs that the coronavirus outbreak is worsening in some U.S. states. Brazil had record daily cases.[Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Asian stocks drifted Wednesday with European and U.S. equity futures as investors weighed encouraging signs on policy stimulus against worrying increases in coronavirus cases. Earlier gains in the dollar petered out, while Treasuries showed a modest rise. Shares in Japan slipped, with benchmark indexes flat in South Korea, Hong Kong and China. The won slid as tensions with North Korea escalated. Crude oil gave up some recent gains. S&P 500 futures were steady after the index rose Tuesday following data showing a rebound in U.S. retail sales for May.
The bulls maintained the climb yesterday though we fell from just shy of the 6315 resistance (briefest test of 6300 then dropped) but the picture still looks bullish. We have 6090 showing as decent 2 hour chart support for the moment, and should we get down that low then we may well see buyers step in here. That said, initially today we have decent support at the 6190 level with the 200ema and fib level here, and as such if we copy the ASX200 and get an opening dip to this area I am thinking that we will see a bounce here.
Should we break below the 6190 level then S1 at 6151 is next up for support and then the 2hr supports as mentioned. The bulls will certainly be keen to keep this momentum going though. Likewise in the US, the S&P bulls will be keen to to get a rise to at least R1 today at 3171, with the daily resistance level at 3190 above that and still looking possible.
Initial FTSE 100 resistance is at 6283 where we have the fib level, with R1 at 6312 above that. Having risen from the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel at 5950 recently, the top of that channel is now at 6394 and it wouldn’t be totally unexpected to rise to that area. We also have R2 at 6385 so a couple of decent levels in this area. With he 6400 round number effect as well, we may see a stutter here should we get that high.
For the moment, it’s still bullish and buy the dip is still the preferred play. I am looking at initial support at the pivot 6225 and then the 6190 level. Initial resistance levels to watch today are 6282 and 6312. Not too much more to say really. Good luck today!
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