Will it hold above 6000? Potential G20 Stimulus measures fuelling the rise.

Support 6033 6005 5977 5975 5970 5921
Resistance 6058 6069 6097 6188 6203

Market Summary for 25th February 2016
The futures had been creeping up all night so the FT100 opened with a bit of a bang helped on by Lloyds which surged 13.5 percent after announcing a special
dividend payment and higher profits. The ex-dividend adjustment of 6.3 for the index did little to dent the up move.
Today it was one of the busiest days for corporate earnings in Europe and positive results helped support markets.
Oil surged by $1.50 at around 6pm UK time so this helped out of hours trading of the FT100.
Commentators are becoming more positive about the stock markets especially in the UK and Europe but whether this feeds through to continued support is unknown.
The strongest sector was banking largely on the back of results from Lloyds and as usual gold shares lagged as they tend to be counter cyclic to economic sensitive shares.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rallied, on track for their second straight weekly gain, with China’s central bank saying it sees room for monetary easing as Group of 20 finance chiefs discuss stimulus efforts. Oil headed for the biggest weekly rise since August.

The regional benchmark is on track for a weekly climb of 0.6 percent, after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index reached levels last seen at the start of 2016 on Thursday. Industrial metals rebounded and high-yielding currencies jumped, with the New Zealand dollar and the South Korean won strengthening. Gold extended gains.

The focus Friday is on the G-20 meeting in Shanghai, with People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan saying he still has monetary policy tools at his disposal and there is no reason for yuan depreciation. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said earlier this week that an “emergency response” shouldn’t be expected from the group despite market gyrations. Global equities are set for their second straight weekly advance as oil maintains its rebound from an almost 13-year low reached earlier in February. The yen, a haven asset, is set for its first weekly drop this month.

“Markets this year have been driven by China, oil and currencies,” said Masayuki Doshida, a senior market analyst at Rakuten Economic Research Institute. “We should see stocks attempt a recovery today.”

New home prices in China rose in more than half the cities the government monitors amid moves by authorities to loosen property curbs in regions. Japan’s core inflationwas zero in January as low energy prices disrupt efforts to increase living costs.

Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.7 percent as of 1:26 p.m. Tokyo time, as the Topix index in Tokyo was 0.8 percent higher and the Kospi index in Seoul climbed 0.2 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rallied 1.6 percent, the Straits Times Index surged 1.2 percent, the Jakarta Composite advanced 1 percent, while the Shanghai Composite was up 0.4 percent.

In making his second public appearance in a week following months of silence as officials try to soothe anxiety over China’s currency, Zhou said China’s economy remains strong and its structure and quality is improving. The PBOC separately published a statement defining current policy as “prudent with a slight easing bias.”

“The central bank chief’s comment has eased market concerns a bit and the overall liquidity condition is still going to be loose,” said Wei Wei, an analyst at Huaxi Securities Co. in Shanghai. “It looks like investor sentiment is fragile so the market isn’t likely to stabilize soon. We are going to see volatile trading.”

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed, after the index surged 1.1 percent on Thursday to its highest level since Jan. 6. Banks and technology shares drove the gain, with oil’s return to around $33 a barrel supporting energy producers.

Currencies
The kiwi jumped 0.7 percent, bringing its climb in the week to 2.1 percent, after New Zealand unexpectedly posted its first trade surplus in eight months for January. The won climbed 0.2 percent and Singapore’s dollar strengthened 0.1 percent. The yuan was little changed at 6.5363.

The yen was little changed at 112.84 per dollar and was heading for a 0.1 percent weekly loss, while the euro rallied 0.4 percent against the dollar. Finance Minister Taro Aso said Friday that policy makers must cooperate to prevent a currency war.

“Markets are rallying ahead of the G-20 meeting, boosting risk assets,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, a senior markets strategist in Singapore at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. “The risk is that investor sentiment is disappointed by the meeting’s outcome, leading to renewed strength of the yen.”
The pound added 0.3 percent to $1.4008. For the week, it has tumbled 2.8 percent, the most since May 2010. Prime Minister David Cameron announced a June 23 date for the referendum on a so-called “Brexit” last week.

Commodities
Gold rose for a fourth day, gaining 0.3 percent and is heading for the biggest monthly gain since January 2012.
Base metals rebounded, supported by Zhou’s comments in Shanghai, with nickel in London rising 1.1 percent and copper in New York advancing 0.5 percent.

Oil held most of its gains as Russia said talks with Iran are continuing before a planned producer meeting next month on a proposed output freeze amid a global glut.

West Texas Intermediate slid 0.4 percent to $32.94, paring an 11.1 percent gain for the week. Russia’s output cap with Saudi Arabia will need to be in place for a minimum of 12 months to support prices, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Thursday. A meeting with Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh is possible next month, he said. Iran, seeking to boost exports after sanctions were lifted, said the deal is “ridiculous,” while Iraq said a pact hinges on unified support.

Bonds
China’s benchmark 10-year bond yield was little changed at 2.905 percent, while the overnight money rate fell six basis points in Shanghai after the central bank stepped up injections in open-market operations. Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield was unchanged at minus 6.5 basis points after the CPI data, while the U.S. yield was little changed at 1.72 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

The bulls have managed to keep this rise above 6000 for the time being and things are looking positive on the expectation of stimulus measures at the G20 meeting. The bounce from 5500 has been pretty rapid and that dip to 5850 looks like the only pull back so far. For today we have the pivot at 6005 which I think might well get tested as initially the 10min chart is bearish with resistance at 6058. If we do get a pull back at all today and dip below the pivot then 5975 area looks a good long spot as there are a cluster supports around here as you can see from the list below, especially on the 2 hour chart. If this level does get hit and we bounce then we could well be on for a rise towards 6100 early next week. As I say its all mostly built on anticipation of stimulus measures that nay be forthcoming rather than anything too concrete as nothing much is different from when we were sliding down towards 5500. For the moment its buy the dips really, and ideally today will see such a dip to 5975. Its been a bit frustrating this week with just missed orders and just getting stopped on the Dax yesterday before it then rocketed up. The increased volatility messes up the automated trades!

239 Comments

  1. Morning all, managed to grab a small long at 6065, taken half at 6085 and running rest at b/e.
    I am expecting a rise to 6100 or possibly 6131 (Daily R2) because of G20 stuff!
    Will be ready for a small short above 6100 area Stop 6150.
    No heavy positions today as I am expecting a crappy quiet day plus its my birthday today 🙂

    2. Happy Birthday Rick.
      Yup, bulls in control again this morning, just the smallest of pullbacks at the opening and a nice 1 min uptrend in play.
      DAX looking the leader, no pullback there at all, and plenty of room for the DOW to post a storming end to the month later.
      Bang at the top of this year’s down channel, loads of long tails on the monthly, the moon is in sight and all is well in the world.
      First close under the uptrend just now, usually a sign of sideways stuff for a while now, under 6100 if three on the trot confirm the loss of momentum but, as Dutch said yesterday, standard TA signals are getting swamped in the euphoria.
      I’ll go for it anyway, short at 93 10 either way.

        1. Thanks tmfp – taken rest half at 6090 so all square now and bloody missed the short at 6099 so hopefully wait for a nice dip or a good bounce to short.
          No much going on this morning and as you said Dax is definitely leading the team this morning 🙂

  2. Morning everyone.

    My overnight short at 6043.7 hasn’t gone quite as expected, so it may end up spending the weekend with me. I was expecting to be browsing Auto Trader for a new car this morning, but I’m currently browsing Grattan for new underpants.

    Good luck today everyone. I know a couple of you are in some shaky positions, so I hope you all make it through today in one piece.

      1. Roll with the punches Si and try not to dwell on it too much. View it as the best lesson you could ever be taught. Good luck on your future trades.

    3. Si – don’t worry mate about what just happened this morning.
      Not sure how big is your account but if you are still in the game then take a chill pill and maybe learn to use stops next time.
      I have had the same issues with stops but as you know there is always another trade.
      All the best and Good luck.

    4. Sorry to hear that news Si.it bites hard when we have high volatility and a high number of contracts If you keep trading remember …..E = m c 2…….. Emotions = money in your account I.e resourses…….x the number of contracts in the market….Hope that helps in some small way. Keep your chin up……health is the most important thing we have,not money.

    5. It happens, take a break now, DO NOT trade in this current market, none of us really can make sense out of this. Come back in a while with new courage and a plan with rules to stick to. All the best

    6. You worried me for weeks and I am sorry to hear that. However you need to understand that high rolling needs to be a safe rolling. You didn’t have control of your account, margins were ripped and in the end a little push finished it all. It happened many times here on the board, it happened to me. But I lost 2 grand at the most… and it took me 6 month at least to pick up the pieces. Such devastating losses are not necessary. HOPE WAS TOO EXPENSIVE. You need to reject hedging strategy and try a common way: SL, B/E, Profit.

  4. Hello all been away for a about a year now ( was on the old forum ) anyway nice too see some old faces on here.

  5. Morning all,Happy Birthday Rick,Hi anstel,just left you a comment on last nights board,up above Hugh who I’m guessing is on the Advil.Hope all is well Hugh.

    1. That late night board can be comi-tragic, should be adapted for Radio 4.

      Hi anstel, good move there winding your neck in, trading is a process of discovery not transmutation.

      2. Hi tmfp,thanks it’s given me time to process some of the information you have given me.i have been looking at the Investing.com site as well,it’s very interesting regarding the appraisal of the hourly,daily,,and monthly T/A. Good Luck.

    2. Thanks for the comments on ydays board WSF…..you are 100% right….I have more clarity now, I was burning the candle at both ends as well and we can’t do it. Im Getting on with some other jobs at the moment but I will be watching closely as well. Good Luck,and enjoy your weekend beers later….

      1. Oh no,thanks,I think you say stuff that makes everyone think about what they are doing.Have a good day/weekend.

        1. Nothing wrong with a few beers WSF……every once in a while……but if it becomes a regular escape mechanism then people say I have to stop drinking……….The bit they are missing is it’s not the drinking that is the problem……it’s the reason they feel like they have to drink in the first place……find the reason and take steps to address the problem and the drinking will take care of itself……..hold on a minute while I crack open another can :0)

          1. Morning WSF –
            Nothin’ wrong with me – haven’t taken a pill for years.
            Up at 6:30 – bright and breezy…!!

          2. 🙂 Morning,I wasnt criticising can you see a pattern in the 4th Friday of every mth on the Dow? Including days that opened down.Seem to remember you using the Almanac?I just went back 6 mths looking at it.

  8. Morning All, Happy Birthday Rick, hope you can nick a few points today to pay for beer tonight.
    All feels fairly bullish to me but am gently re building my short even after having got bitten on my a*se with the last one. Just had a look on the morning IG chart thingy who say “The Downside Prevails” – normally a contra indicator, but they also say that a break of 6120 would mean the start of “The Upside prevails” which is the contra indicator I’m looking for!

  10. Good Morning All,

    A forced break for 2 weeks and didn’t realise that a flu could be that bad. It has given me confidence that I can do away with not looking at the markets for sometime. I would consider it a good break.

    I have a small long from 9143 which is still running and took some profits on the way. I’m going for a 1000 point run. Last time, I tried this and it went close to 1000 points in opposite direction 🙂

      1. Thanks tmfp. Apparently Man flu is for real and hits men harder 🙂

        The funny thing was Dax was around same levels where I stopped watching and came back but a 1000 points swing in between.

        I’m up for it tmfp. Its nice formation on the daily, I don’t think we will see any more lows before 10000 on the Dax. It’s a shame I reduced some of my position by taking profits a bit early but doesn’t matter account looks healthy.

        1. Don’t worry about profits, it’s better to take it easy when your body recovers after the illness. Eat oranges (they are lovely in ASDA now), vitamins and less carbs. Fresh air should help too, it’s getting warmer. Glad to see you back.

        1. I’ve been all right. My wife is looking for a job and I traded rarely. However somehow I am up +250 points this month (last month it was +200), so I noticed some pattern. This month it was due to that lucky win of 186 points (half stake, so it’s like 93 full points). The rest: scalps. I noticed that restraints at home (I mean: somebody being present in the house) makes me more choosy with my trades and close losing trades more ruthlessly when I clearly see I made a mistake. It makes me feel more aware of myself, whereas when I’m on my own I can be more reckless. I don’t know, it’s a strange feeling.

  13. Stimulus was only ever the answer if it was used & placed in the right places… All it’s done is given the banks a green light too feed the stock market and corporate companies. Maybe if they had placed it into small business, then they may have seen a better growth with companies that pay there due taxes.

      1. Somewhere in the deep recesses of my mind…
        The only thing I can’t square with all of this…
        Interest Rates er !
        Talk of lowering these er what !

        Stock Yields + 3.5%
        (Not sure what the actual headline rate is on FTSE 100)
        If stocks fell further – higher yield or they cut their dividend because things are getting tricky…
        either way – comparative value and fewer places to park

        2. Yeah, but that’s macro obfuscation.
          The only point I was making about your original observation is that it’s reasonable to match the trade period with the signal i.e. if you’re trading based on daily signals that’s cool, but using shorter term signals as well on the same trade can be misleading.

    2. Morning Hugh 6130 is a big resistance area, let’s wait and see if Dow can help FTSE break that area today then I am expecting a nice trendline straight to 6300 by next week or so!
      However for intraday, 6125 looks a great area to short for 20-25 pts pullback by late this afternoon.

      1. If we do struggle to break 6130 today then hopefully we are going down to somewhere in Mid 5000s very soon 🙂
        We definitely need a close below 6130 area today!

        1. Thanks Hugh for the currency update!
          Since November 2015, we have a decent pattern in play on daily chart by bears running the indices for first few weeks and then bulls taking it over for rest of the month.
          If I am right – I am expecting a drop again until options expiry in March and then again some buying after this.

          As I said earlier break of 6130 today will confirm if we are going up or down 🙂

          Out of my small Gold short at 1231 for +7 from this morning.

      2. Hi Rick,
        Yes
        Just flickin through a few charts..for correlation
        I’m always lookin at
        USD/JPY – Up – (Markets Up)
        USD/CAD – If this going down – Markets Up…
        Both have some way to go USD/CAD 13460 would be an area to look at &
        11340 on USD / JPY

  15. Hi Dutch,

    Good to see you back in the forum. how are you ? If my memory is right, I think you were in last quarter of 2014.

    1. Hi RJ, good to see you too. I can’t remember very much about yesterday so not sure if you are right on that but could well be! Still chipping away at it all, win some, loose some..

  16. How many of you guys have been doing this successfully for substantial period of time? I hear too many people have some success over weeks or even months but they almost always lose it in the end.

    1. I make a regular living (touch wood).
      It’s all about risk/reward, we all get it wrong, the trick is minimising losses.
      There’s always another trade.

      1. It seems to me –
        You can’t over emphasize the importance of Stops – it almost more important than the actual trade.
        It validates the trade.
        It validates if you should trade and strategy.

        It’s definitey changed the way I trade & think about it…

    2. Successfully – hmmm! I’ve been punting since the late 80’s but in a very small way (having read about Si’s disappointment). I take an earning each month of a fixed amount (beer money), I leave anything left over in the account (if anything) after that and will sometimes give myself a discretionary bonus. I suppose after all these years I’ve been relatively successful in that if I had my max long my account would blow up at 0.
      2 rules – Never made a loss by taking a profit and First cut is the cheapest. To be fair I struggle with rule 2.
      Best lesson I ever learnt – In the Old Stock Market a mate of mine was a trader (jobber) in a stock called Polly Peck. From at least 2 years prior to it going pop he ran a short. When it did go pop he get back all the money he’d lost in the previous 2 years – Lesson – you don’t always make money by being right (or vice versa).

      1. And situation report for 2016 – Had a massive month in January, given nearly all of it back in Feb, could do with a little retrace!

        1. Wow,Chippy,Polly Peck was the best performer ever until it crashed and burned ? did he know something ?
          I thought it was sad the way Asil Nadir came back for the court case,he was in the original Risk Takers book,him an Ashraf Marwan with that House of Fraser trade that in Court it was claimed was inspired by and article Jim Slater (Slater Walker 🙂 ) wrote in The Evening Standard.You really saw the good old days. I’m doffing my cap,seriously.

          3. Thanks tmfp,didnt see that,those were the days when Friday afternoon at Downing St b4 she went to Chequers were drinks with Godsmith,White and Hanson etc etc semm to remember even the Mirror foreign correspondant got dragged into Supergun stories,he had a side business as an arms dealer out of Florida or something ?
            Dont remember the Watch,but remember the Polly Peck Tights TV ads 🙂 and I believed that thing about school friends in Cyprus wanting advice from a east end clothing man on packaging and exporting fruit being the key.Recently I wondered about the scam Binary brokers in Nth Cyprus and who helped them with “licensing”.Do you remember when John Delorean was fresh from GM and going to bring peace and employment to Nthn Ireland with Jobs building Cars its hard to get out of in Car Parks ? He burnt his british govt finance and took the last of it to refinance via a 100kg cocaine deal ? amazing time.

          4. Yep, WSF, good days and very funny. Someone wrote on here the other day about the 2 week accounting period – in the mid 80’s the queue on the Oil pitch to sell for cash and buy for the new account used to stretch for miles. Loads of chaps who were going to millionaires within the next fortnight. Just like us really!

          5. 🙂 Yeah, Margin of the Bulls…14 days to watch it go up and then sell and bank a profit without ever having any money,or sell and just stump up what you lost if it went down.Hate this T20 special dodgy price,broker acts like he is doing you a favour and a mkt it wont work in rubbish.How can a hard working guy jump on an Insiders trades in a manipulatred mkt if he doesnt know what the blokes timescale and what his rolling settlement is ? 🙂 Completely unfair system now.
            You must have seen a lot of moves from real news, not reports.

          6. “Don’t let the bastards grind you down” said the engraved watch from Michael Mates, Tory MP.

            The days when “Asset Stripping” meant more than a night on the piss in Stringfellows.

          7. The Blue Angel in Soho was my clipjoint of choice. Gorgeous women.
            The LME dinner was the biggest sitdown of the year in London, a real schmooze, people from all over the world.
            Used to take them out on the tiles after. I spent £2500 on my company Amex on various hedonism in one night, was dreading my foreign boss seeing it on exs.
            He took me to one side when he came in later that week and said “Very good, quite restrained for you. Mr. X etc. said they had a very good time”.
            I was dumbfounded.
            Then about an hour later, there was a bellow of pain from his office. He’s got the decimal point in the wrong place…..

          9. Used to get dragged there for the carvery and steak and oyster pie by the old Etonian crew.
            I’d slum in in Smithfields or somewhere for a fryup after an all nighter, must have looked like the archetypal Yuppie tw*t.

          11. 🙂 know what you mean I have a clearer memory of a Berni Inn behind Victoria Station somehwere,mid 90’s,must have been the last one in the Country.

    3. 🙂 Anton You keep asking this every few weeks and people keep answering.I think you should ask yourself if you can make a living doing this ? because you are the only one who can answer that,you shouldnt still be wondering,not saying you should be making a profit yet but based on your earlier comments about your trading I would say that swinging 10 quid a point and clearing 100 odd a mth isnt making a profit and proves nothing.50p a trade to learn and a few hundred a month for a bit will answer your actual question about you cheaply.Get 1000 trades done and look at your averages.Use Stop Losses.Basically it’s work,not luck.You are already luckier to have the opportunity than 90% of the world’s population will ever be and if you dont see that or need to do it then dont,be a Headmaster or something.

          1. I am taking a nice and easy until 01:00 as can’t be bothered with pennies hopefully DOW will make this a little bit interesting today.

          4. DAX basically up 120 from the opening then 60 pullback to a nice round number 9500, don’t expect that to break really.

          5. I know what you mean tmfp – for some reason I always find 11:00-01:00 bit boring, off to gym now. Catch you guys later. GL

    1. just went long on Dax too at 460, what is your average and target RJ? I’m looking for a rise to 9520, stop 9400

      1. my avg now is 304 and that is also my stop so get out b/e if this doesn’t push up. I’m going to leave it to run if it doesn’t get stopped out.

        1. I think that German CPI regional stuff is all in at 13.00,might not turn before then US have a q’l gdp prelim at 13.30.

      2. On that note there is a chance it might get to 430 and 380-60 anything below that might break the uptrend and have to look for shorts next week. Lets see how it closes today end of US session.

    1. 6100 today? I wish! Got a limit sell at 6100 adding to my (sorry looking) shorts which it appears I’ve missed by a gnats whisker. Probably get another chance later or on Monday.

  20. Hope that you being stopped out Si isn’t indicative of the final bit of short retail being screwed over/stopped out and now it will roll over and drop. End of the 5500 bounce at 6100?

  21. I have had good success with stocks but not been able to do the same with indices. I have made money on FTSE trades but lost significantly more than I’ve made on them. The stocks have gone well. I feel I can read the stocks (mainly using support and resistance) much better than I can FTSE. But swing trading stocks can be a tad boring as they take days to unfold. They are obviously not as fast moving as the indices (some traders of course my prefer slower but surer movements, since it allows greater control over the account).

    I came across this guy whose selling a course (or various courses) to people on successfully day trading the Dax. He uses moving average crossover to generate signals. He supposedly has a good track record. I don’t pay for the course because I already know how he generates the signals. With respect to his system, it comes down to managing the losses because the system generates more losing trades. However, it usually generates a few really big winners as well, which together outweigh the cumulative losses over the month, because it allows the trader to get into several quite big trends quite early on.

    By the way, did anyone watch the trading programme BBC had on couple of years ago? I watched it couple of times on YouTube. Got to say, shouldn’t someone like Renee give up? He started with £10k and is down to £4k after six years. Isn’t that long enough to determine that maybe this isn’t the job, or perhaps not, as he, unlike many others, still has left substantial amount of his original deposit.

    1. If you’ve already got a share system that makes you money, I’d stick with that.
      Nick’s got a proven system for the cost of a couple of beers a week, check out his spreadsheet.

      1. The overriding key is cut the losers quickly and run the winners. Cant always be right buts its all about making it count when you are right as you know.

        1. Easier said than done, or we we’d all be trading for a living. So what do we get with your index membership course? Do we get signals, the stop distance, profit target, or is it mostly learning material? Is it easy to follow? Would you say most of your members are profitable? I will look into it in a month or two because I am currently busy working on a couple of projects which I’d like to take off. It will require time and commitment on my part, but I’d like to eventually trade for a living.

    2. Hi Anton

      Stocks move slower and give you time to think. They also close at 4:30 which gives you some breathing space and time to evaluate your positions. I make most of my cash on UK stocks rather than the FTSE. But then I work full time so can’t watch the market all day.

      Buying a moving average course is absolute madness in my opinion. You buy when they cross and sell when they cross back – easy. You’ll get loads of losing trades but some will generate a few points I guess. If it was that good would they reveal their secret?! Way better to read price action imo. Moving averages lag so it’s better to look for support and resistance and patterns.

      I watched that program – fascinating stuff. That lady who turned £10K into £100K on a demo then started to lose when it was real money shows it ain’t about systems but trade and money management and psychology. They all trade forex too! No idea why – it’s the most difficult and esoteric.

        1. Thanks Nick, I’ll have a look. Just looked at the top 10 divi stocks:

          Glencore 10.09%!
          Rio 8.55%
          Shell 8.53%
          Aberdeen Asset 8.35%
          HSBC 8.16%
          BHP 8.12% (this might be out-date)
          Standard Life 6.89%
          Pearson 6.49%
          SSE 6.42%
          Berkeley 5.81%

      3. I think Charlie may well be a successful trader but the others are destined to fail. I think Renee has improved over time, but it’s not enough to keep breaking even month in month out, how you going to pay the bills?

      4. I don’t think she really had a system in place. She was pretty much guessing, albeit maybe slightly educated ones.

  22. I have also noticed IG offers trade ideas with their signal centre. Been following (without trading them) their recommendations on the indices. It’s a mixed bag. They been stopped out one some while reaching, or coming very close to, the target price on others. On a few trades, the risk-reward is actually almost 2:1 in favour of risk.

    I wonder if I can be up at the end of the month following all their FTSE trades?

    2. Anton
      Ask yourself – would you be a happy passenger sitting on a plane with a pilot who says….” ..never been in a cockpit before …but I’ll learn on the job…”.
      Unfortunately there is really no school for training you to trade. However there is an “open University”.
      So take nuggets from some of the info here , Nick, tmfp, hugh , with their analysis. Nuggets from people who have no idea of R:R. Nuggets from “I think..5**7 is the top” or G-20 will push markets higher.
      None of this is of any use, until you can build a system ( that you UNDERSTAND ), that you are able to bring some logic into “what appears as ” Random movements. an example is a over-glorified Head & Shoulders.
      Unfortunately a system is like a fingerprint, unique to you.
      So my advise is – start building one. Spend time on that.
      Sorry if I have upset you mate, but there is nothing like the truth.

  23. A pretty good bounce off the previous 60’s highs going on now, if it can get through 80 that’ll look like a base.

    1. 434 level on Dax which is 38.2% retrace. I should have waited for 430 went it early to add at 466. Never mind stops in place so no more messing around with those trades. I will have a look around US close.

      10000 next week 🙂

          3. Hey, don’t take this the wrong way Rick, but that a potentially bad habit that I had for a while.
            You’re going in on good r/r in theory, but coming out on bad i.e. -50 stop for +13.

          4. I know this is bad but I am just playing with small positions today with big stops. But will work on my stops strategy again. Thanks tmfp

    1. And done mate. U.S. Is going to fly with oil at $37 but I am knocking off early. So you short then, thought you was long DAX?

      1. I’m still Long on the Dax. My avg open is now reduced to 240 as I took half of the profit on the added position for 60 points. I’m expecting 10000 next week..greedy I know 🙂

    2. I waited till it recovered and closed just now at 9506 the remaining 3 trades b/e, but lost 25 points when I reduced 2 stakes at the bottom. That’s life.

        1. nowhere, that’s the problem. I had half stake, then added, then I thought 500 should be stop. but didn’t place, then I thought it should come back, added me. the charts screemed “short”, I lost my power and just wanted to get out, on 440 I closed 2 losint trades (-50qu in total) and then waited till I got b/e on the rest 9506. I was demotivated because I should have held till 530. Oh dear.

  29. 13:35 GDP data
    The US economy grew faster than first thought in the last three months of 2015, official figures show.

    The economy expanded by 1% in the fourth quarter compared with the same period a year earlier and compare with an the first estimate of 0.7% growth.

  31. Despite my previous confidence, I have now closed my trade (short at 6043.7 last night) as it reached my limit of 6100 (the wrong direction!). This equates to a loss of £1495.00 (59.8 points).

    I could have funded this going in the wrong direction for a good while yet, but I didn’t want to change my original plan and end up in a real mess.

    I made £182.50 yesterday, so today’s loss leaves me £1312.50 down. Perhaps this has been a relatively cheap lesson, such was the scope for me to lose even more.

    1. Yeah, +10 here or there and then -60 is the wrong way round.
      As you say, hopefully a relatively cheap lesson in R/R. I’m looking at a much more expensive one atm. 🙁

      1. I’m going to watch for a while and see if I can learn something. I’m still expecting this price level to be somewhere near the limit of the rise, as part of that longer-term downtrend. Perhaps Monday will provide a clearer picture of where I might re-enter with the short that I messed up today.

        Good luck with your expensive one. I hope that one resolves itself in due course.

    2. Oh dear, it’s all risky business. Sorry for your loss. I just felt how easy it is to lose everything. It just takes a wrong trade without SL. Why is it so hard to accept losses?

      1. I’m currently congratulating myself for not losing several thousand! With some better judgement I will hopefully be reporting a winning trade next time.

        1. Wish you luck. Soon you’ll understand that it’s better to have a smaller loss than a bigger one (even if the loss is still more than your original SL).

  33. So, DOW open soon, probably around 16790 and an immediate target of + another 100 with fomo dip buyers looking for 17000 to round off the month.

    2. Reminds me of Ali and the “rope a dope” recently. Absorb everything the sellers can throw and then disappear into the blue yonder when they’re knackered.

  34. I’m not quite sure what to do now as I still believe in the reason for and – eventual outcome of – my original trade, but with hindsight I entered too early (which at the time I thought was favourably ‘late’, as in being thirty points above yesterday’s close.

    3. FGS fwiw I think you let yourself be influenced around that entry by other people instead of the significance of that R level on the Dow.Not saying it wont turn but breach of significant R and recent trend was being ignored and people were being adamant about what was going to happen and you traded with them.

      1. Yes, that was a bit of a mistake!

        I was actually referring to a longer-term resistance line that I had drawn on my FTSE 100 chart, but I may have had it in the wrong place. It falls around the 6000 mark on my chart, so I was confident that the previous close of 6013 was reaching the limit, and even more confident during the evening when it rose above 6043. I placed the trade on that basis, rather than consciously following any particular trader.

        1. Sounds like You just didnt factor the Dow influence in,thats easier to fix than ignoring a point of view presented as definite for me.I’ve lost a lot on pepole who seem expert on an Industry.Its like everything too,it’s a lesson in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 🙂
          Just a suggestion,I dont know how you look at it,but if you bring the Dow into a day outline/plan,like : News due ,Week so far,Day before movement,Hourly bias,key S and R levels and big picture then that Dow area would have been the last R so you wouldnt have shorted above it without confirmation even in another mkt.Or just leave those S and R lines on a Dow Chart and look at it now and again for trend whilst you are on the FTSE,probably easier depends on how much time you have for charts and stuff.

          1. Completely agree, but with the caveat of comparing cash/cash. A large number of my FTSE trades factor in DAX/DOW momentum and resistance levels.

          2. Thanks, I’ll have a look at the Dow and see how that affects things.

            You’re right, I didn’t factor the Dow in at all. I’m not aware of how it affects things, only that its opening time overlaps the FTSE. I’m not sure how a Dow area would manifest itself on the FTSE.

            It’s odd because I’ve been watching the FTSE carefully for nearly a year, and for two weeks prior to me opening the IG account, I was predicting (and writing down) my thoughts about each day’s FTSE movements, before market open. I would start the previous evening, noting my thoughts and observations from that day, then set my alarm for 7.00am to spend an hour before open going through the news stories (Yahoo Finance, Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Telegraph, Guardian, and Hargreaves Lansdown) and making further notes, with plans for possible trades.

            Apart from two occasions I predicted each day’s price movement correctly, which was part of the reason why I was so confident with the trade I placed last night.

          3. Yes,but that’s ok it’ll be about averages being positive not 100% win rate and the flip side of the leverage letting us make money is that we can be right about A getting to C and go bankrupt when it goes via T.You cut the loss and you are thinking about what you could have done better,that is brilliant,wish I’d done that from day one.I would really recommend downloading a free copy of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and giving it a read at the weekend,it isnt long,its free unless you want one with a copyrighted intro eg the Paul Tudor Jones edition,and the mental side etc is all there,just a couple of the techniques he describes dont work now that we have live charts not Ticker tape.Everything I do wrong is warned against in there anyway 🙂

          4. Thank you, and I appreciate your encouraging words. I’ll download a copy of that book to have a read through, then Monday will be a fresh start.

            Thanks again.

  37. It’s gone back below 16777. Shall I ask IG if I can have my positions back and we can pretend it never happened? 🙂

      2. That was a little joke, but many true words spoken in jest…I think the DOW’s very flat, but probably rope-a-doping for an hour or so.
        I’m short at 96 would have hoped for +10 by now given the DOW, but as you say, FTSE’s quite resilient.

        1. LOL! Feeling a sharp drop now, DAX is following DOW but bloody FTSE is not moving from 6090 and oil is showing a bit weakness again

  38. Ftse a stubborn beast. US giving up gains and we are sat near the highs. Shorting gold from 1240 has been good for me this week taking 10 points a time. Short ftse at 6060 average. Hate holding over the weekend. A headline like ‘Trump pulls out of republican race’ would spike it! Also on share trading mentioned earlier. All stable until and earnings miss. Gap downs are horrible.

  40. Re: relative strength of FTSE, it’s reasonable to expect the sterling carnage to make £ denominated equities, property etc. more attractive.
    1.39 £$ today, ouch. Another big revaluation to go with the others in commodities, shipping etc. There will be some window jumping about soon.

  41. FGS, sorry it didn’t work out for you but from what you’ve said, ie – Fairly new at the game, what are you doing at £25 a point?! Muck about with £2s/£5s and you can get a living without dropping £1,500 on what is, essentially, a poxy little move. Sorry, rant over, good luck with the next one!

      1. Sorry Chippy and TMFP, I missed your posts earlier.

        Yes, that makes sense. I’ve made my plan for Monday, so I’ll get to work on it without letting today’s carry-on affect anything.

        By the way, I’m not rich! In fact I’m not as rich now as I was this morning! I had £1300 originally, but reluctantly added £2000 from my savings to cover me when that short went the wrong way. My plan is to recover the amount I lost today so that I have my original £1300 plus the £2000, then pay the £2000 back into my savings and start again with the £1300.

        1. FGS, It doesn’t work. You’ll end up leaving the new £2000 on the account and continue trading. You will get used to the stake and won’t want to reduce it if you leave £1300 after withdrawal. However it is a good plan. Try to stick to it.

        2. To be honest with £1300 starting balance you should be staking £1 pp, max: £2-3 but not £25. I started with £1300 this year and used only £1-2 to start with because they felt safest. 70% up on account and I am still £1-2, sometimes £3-4, keep it safe. Then you can increase your stake gradually. Ideally I allow approx 1000 points cover for my stake, minimum 500 points. For example: if you stake £1 you need to have £500-1000, if you stake £25 you should have £12500-£25000 on account.

  42. tmfp, I don’t know whether it is relevant but whilst I’m long (and wrong) of VIX, it has rallied the thick part of a point since about midday. I suppose the suggestion is that a move, of some sort, is expected if premiums have rallied?

  43. And the last half hour nearly upon us. Don’t see much weakness although we’ve proved a bit reluctant to hold over 6100 so far, buy any dip up to 16.10 and trail stop it closely I think.

  44. Recovered to -7.5 full points today. Again I was chasing the wrong trade, took long 9528 for some reason, faced the dip and came out with another 5 points. OMG, why I wasn’t getting movements today? I have no idea, I need to reflect on it. Good weekend.

  45. 🙂 Dax back to the am,I feel obliged to go to Lidl and buy a box of Liebfraumilch tomorrow,help their economy.

  47. Strangely gratifying that we closed below 6100, talk about clutching at straws…
    Settling down with my short, I’ve named him Brian, for a weekend hopefully light on Black Swans.
    Pip pip!

  48. Off to go and see Scotland smashed up by the Italians this weekend, not back until Tuesday. Limit in at 6000 in case we get Black Monday not Black Swans. Sell limit also in at 6120 for a laugh as that is what IG have as their bullish pivot.
    Ooooo – errr, tmfp, just looked, we are saved!!! The IG chart thingy has changed from “The downside prevails” to “Limited upside”. Might up the size of my sell limit!!

        1. 🙂 🙂 looks like it started exactly when you posted,off yet another double bottom too,new favourite Dow move.

      1. Dow Transports is a bit up,which is interesting,so is Oil on earlier,guess it is all about whatever comes out of the G20 over the weekend.

    1. And you too.

      By the way, I found the book you recommended. It’s the version that’s annotated by Jesse Livermore. It’s 471 pages though, so I’m not sure how much I’ll get through this weekend!

  52. G20 have solved nothing this weekend… And central banks saying it’s now down to governments to create growth. Investor were looking for more free money from central banks it’s not coming this time lol

    1. My interpretation of the G20 news stories prior to Friday’s open was that it was quite negative, so I was surprised when the market didn’t decline. People seem to be seeing positives in everything, regardless of whether it’s there.

      I presume this is the ‘everything is awesome’ effect that they keep going on about on Zero Hedge.

  55. Si I would think they will still try too put some spin on the G20 meeting and Monday end of month so maybe they will have a buying spree but think when that settle down we go so expecting a mid week sell off…. Stock investor have been spoon fed money from central banks for years now, and it has caused massive problems in real world, the good feel factor everything is all good credit easy to obtain, what a good jobs been done since 2008 … But reality is hitting home there whole economy has been built on credit now this is drying up and seem some are trying to stand behind the fan before the shit flies. To me from what I have read this weekend the central banks are all sing from different sheets… It won’t take long for the pack cards too come tumbling down.

  56. Still above an uptrend line on the Dow and above a downtrend line on the Ftse and it’s been a couple of weeks and the 200sma’s arent too far off.Asx and Dax look less healthy,but Germany is exporting to the US at an ever increasing rate thanks to the Euro according to the News this morning.There are mfg no.’s from China Tues morning which could be off the estimates…that all fits your plan,on the other hand lots of strange and hard to believe stuff is happening too eg Scotland beating Italy 36-20 and ,”Due to a system error yesterday, we have made an adjustment to your account. This adjustment is a credit and you will be able to see this in your account history.” 🙂 Yr of the Fire Monkey.

    1. I’m glad you said that about the FTSE downtrend line because I re-drew mine over the weekend and it seems that I’ve got it in about the right place. I’ve got it hitting 6060 right about now.

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