US Election day | FTSE 100 resistance 6830 6855 6900 | Support 6720 | Asia rises

FTSE 100 Support 6782 6743 6717
FTSe 100 Resistance 6844 6848 6853 6901 6967

Good morning. Well here we are, voting day and who’s it going to be!? Latest poll showed Clinton ahead, however after gaining to the 2130 area the SP stalled around there yesterday and overnight – all about the results now. The FTSE 100 managed to rise yesterday to the 6812 area where we had the short order, but unfortunately not till after hours, and in fact didn’t react much there either – most people avoiding taking large positions ahead of the election results.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian equities rose with South Korea’s won and the Mexican peso as Americans prepare to vote in their presidential election with opinion polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump. A hint of caution was evident with U.S. stock index futures losing ground and gold gaining.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index extended the last session’s rebound from a seven-week low after the S&P 500 Index snapped a nine-day losing streak. The won and Mexico’s peso were the best performers among major currencies, a sign of investors’ confidence that Trump and his protectionist trade policies will be rejected in the vote. Haven assets stabilized, with the yen and gold edging up from their lowest levels in a week. Copper and nickel retreated from one-year highs, while crude oil held below $45 a barrel.

On websites that take wagers on the election winner, Democratic candidate Clinton’s odds of victory are generally near or above 80 percent, boosted by Sunday’s news that the Federal Bureau of Investigation won’t revisit its decision against seeking criminal charges related to her e-mail practices while Secretary of State. Global equities slumped last week and haven assets rallied after the FBI said on Oct. 28 that it had reopened a probe into her communications.

“Markets are currently in the grip of a risk-seeking mood following the latest FBI news, which is perceived as raising the chances of a Clinton win,” said Imre Speizer, a market strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Wellington. “A Trump win would cause a major reversal of the recent moves, so markets will be mostly preoccupied by the election during the day ahead.”

The election results are expected to be announced during morning trading in Asia on Wednesday, offering some prospect of calm on Tuesday as investors digest China trade data for October. Exports from Asia’s biggest economy dropped 7.3 percent from a year earlier in dollar terms, more than the 6 percent decline forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent as of 3:01 p.m. Tokyo time, led by gains in raw-materials producers. The Shanghai Composite Index climbed to a 10-month high as benchmarks advanced across the region.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index — which ended its longest run of declines since 1980 on Monday — declined 0.1 percent and contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.3 percent.

While riskier assets are generally climbing before the U.S. election, trading patterns around the U.K.’s referendum over European Union membership provide a cautionary tale. A similar rally in stocks, emerging markets and commodities on the day of the British vote gave way to a slump — and a rebound in haven assets — after the unexpected decision in favor of Brexit. The outlier this time around is the dollar, which is strengthening, having weakened before Britain’s plebiscite.

Currencies

Mexico’s peso, which tends to gain when Trump has a setback, appreciated 0.1 percent to about 18.58 a dollar after rallying 4.2 percent over the last three trading sessions. Nomura Holdings Inc. says the currency is likely to sink to 25 by year-end in the event of an election victory for Trump, who has said he will end or renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement that governs trade between Mexico and the U.S.

The yen was up less than 0.1 percent at 104.38 per dollar, after sliding 1.3 percent in the last session. The Japanese currency would probably strengthen to 99.50 within 24 hours of a Trump victory, and slip to 105.25 if Clinton wins, according to Scott Petruska, a Newton, Massachusetts-based senior adviser at SVB Financial Group.

“Although we have seen an improvement in risk appetite over the past 24 hours, markets remain wary of an election shock,” said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “A dollar-positive reaction is likely on news of a Clinton victory; a likely ‘risk off’ reaction to a Trump victory would mean dollar losses versus yen, Swiss franc and euro but gains elsewhere.”

South Africa’s rand weakened 0.5 percent and Australia’s dollar declined 0.3 percent, the biggest losses among major currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after surging 0.4 percent in the last session.

Commodities

Gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,283 an ounce, after sliding 1.8 percent from a one-month high in the last session. It surged 2.3 percent last week as opinion polls indicated Clinton’s lead over Trump was narrowing.

Crude oil held near $45 a barrel in New York, after climbing 1.9 percent on Monday from its lowest close since September. Russia, the world’s biggest energy producer, is “on board” with an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreement to limit production to help re-balance the market, according to the group. U.S. government data on Wednesday are forecast to show the nation’s stockpiles expanded by 1.5 million barrels last week.

Copper fell 0.3 percent in London and nickel was down 0.1 percent, after earlier rallying as much as 2.2 percent. The global nickel market faces a second year of shortage in 2017 as contracting ore shipments from the Philippines prompt China to trim output, according to Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan’s top producer.

A recent improvement in commodity prices is due to growth in global manufacturing and higher demand from China, according to Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst. The increase in metals despite dollar strength shows the move is driven by fundamentals, he said.

Bonds

U.S. Treasuries due in a decade yielded 1.82 percent, down one basis point on the day. The rate jumped five basis points in the last session as investors shunned haven assets amid a pickup in expectations that Clinton will win the U.S. election and pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month. The probability of a hike at the next review is 80 percent, up from 76 percent on Friday, futures prices showed before Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans speaks Tuesday.The yield on Australia’s 10-year government bonds held near a one-week high of 2.36 percent. Franklin Templeton said it is betting the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its benchmark interest rate to 1 percent by mid-2017 from an already record low 1.5 percent. The swaps market was pricing the probability of that at just 4 percent on Tuesday in Sydney.

The cost of insuring corporate and sovereign bonds against default in the Asia-Pacific region fell to a two-week low, according to prices from Westpac Banking Corp. and data provider CMA. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Its a pretty tricky one to try and make a prediction for today as it is all going to depend on exit polls and so forth and the market will react accordingly. Crudely speaking, Trump ahead – markets drop, Clinton ahead, markets rise. I am envisaging a similar pattern to the day of the Brexit vote but whether we get that or not remains to be seen. Basically something like Trump ahead early on, markets drop and then Clinton takes the lead and they rally. But, to be frank it’s just a finger in the air job for today!

That said, a few levels are of interest – support at 6717, resistance at 6855 and 6900. However, today is mostly about sentiment and not technicals. More of a gambling day/night when you just put on a trade in the direction its moving rather than try and put too much thought into it. Anyway, thats my lose plan for today – 6718 and 6855 as the main areas, with a possible dip and rise off the pivot – but stay nimble out there!

85 Comments

  1. hey all / anyone 🙂
    Quiet out there / in here.
    Tempted to take a few small size range trades, but hesitating at the moment… Just back from little jaunt to Stockholm, so a bit frazzled still 🙂

    1. Why doesn’t it go anywhere? Expected a good move down after US open but it looks rather sidewayish. Attempted 2 longs 10443 in the morning. 1st b/e, 2nd took 10 points. Just nothing today.
      Now I think, I should have gone short after all.

        1. looking for a push up to days highs around 10480… (i will be in and out up to there depending on how it looks)

          1. very satisfying, nabbed about 50 points.. problem now is that I wanna short it, but I’ve reached my daily target…
            and also shorting it probably has limited points in it – or at least to say is against the trend (which I don’t usually mind too much).

            Its a real mind f*ck this ‘reaching daily target’ – as soon as its reached I’m super reluctant to trade, even though there are good opportunities. Might convince myself I can give it back tonight in a bit of election gambling… we’ll see.

    1. Hi Si….well ive got a short on and it’s not behaving at the moment …..thought it might sell off a bit but it’s not having it….

  3. Evening all, time to place your bets. Im thinking a rally with Hillary early on and only if trump gains the ground then big sell offs like brexit had in the early morning.

    1. Yeah think I might be around a while too… I’ve some Modafinil sat next to me… not sure I’ll take it though – depends how exciting it gets and how sleepy i get…

      1. If trump gets in I will short instantly a lot.

        It seems everyone thinks Clinton will get in and if she does the Dow will rocket. But I don’t see it? I think the markets have priced it in?

        Any thoughts anyone?

        Would add to shorts now but to be honest I have no idea what the next few hours will bring ?

          1. hahahahaha. yes that too 🙂
            I’m reasonably sure there will be a move up if clinton gets in, but how long it lasts is another question… Take out all time highs, then reverse ?
            Not sure how useful RSI is in these situations.
            If its anything like brexit then there’ll be some big moves every time a result gets confirmed, but then a pullback / profit take if there is still an open question about the final result..
            Whatever move happens has surely got to be 200pts ? Might try to take 50 of those points. Presumably its gonna be volatile as feck.

    1. Yeah quite right! If he gets in then its Brexit squared 🙂
      I think thats when I size up… and walk away for 15 minutes with no stop 🙂 gulp.

  6. Been trying to optimise account last few days but failed before the opening bell. Need about 100pt fall in Dow to be ready for either scenario. I’m in gold heavy too?

    Clinton win = up, trump win = up ??brexit style??

    GL chaps, chaos follows

    1. Was gonna ask about the long gold call…
      Trump win – gold save haven and weak dollar = gold up
      Clinton win – safe haven sell off, strong dollar = gold down ?

  7. I reckon that’s not far wrong inoodle. Have to wait and see for the outcome. Good luck everyone. One other thing I got to say is Si, you got two things, 1) a set of balls and 2), big pockets. Fingers crossed for you.

  13. Long Dow ftse and Nikkei. If Hilary wins there is lots of profit. If build the wall wins I’m fooked

  14. Fair play, I thought if build the wall wins then I’m short the Dow and happy days but if Clinton wins gold will sell off and again happy days. Wide stops in place of course.

  15. Ok, I have beer, cigarettes, kettle chips (with Norfolk bacon flavour). Let’s see how quickly I can blow enough money to get me divorced

    🙂

  16. I’m short on Dow heavy, with about 30% longs. The thinking it will dump when trump states are called first. This will dump Dow and I will sell adding to longs for the Clinton victory rally.

    My gold long is less calculated…its. Safe haven so I’m hoping will rise for those who aren’t sure about either of them. !

    2. Just some thoughts on Morko’s comment from 6.29…. Not long ago we had Dow at 18600 as the other indices eventually gained and Ftse hit ATH again with some help from somewhere……it could well be that a Hillary win is pretty much priced in as you said…..it would be logical to expect the Dow to head off back towards those highs at 18600 but as we all know the markets are illogical….all to play for….let’s see how it plays out…..

      1. I’m convinced that in a few days time the Dow will be 18000 again as everyone eyes the rate cut, with the uncertainty of a president that not only new but to be frank untrustworthy

        1. GREED hits me again, I should sell it all but I have dreams of going to bed and waking up to a balance of a zillion pounds.

  25. hey all
    hope you’re all coining it in!
    I’ve done 10 days of profit so far… trying not to get carried away too much…
    But this feels like brexit all over again…

    1. I love that Si’s half size ‘let it run’ position is 300pp hehehehe. I’m happy to put that size on at times… not tonight… and I couldn’t look away from the screen while I had it on 🙂
      So.. if Clinton starts turning it round, the dow has 800 points upmove ahead of it…
      How much more downside is there i wonder

      1. Im happy at 30 – 40 max …..but it’s all relative to account size…… Too many nights without sleep is not good…..and I’ve had too many!!!!…..I think it’s better to keep size smaller so when the trade does go against you it’s not catastrophic…….how much more downside I don’t know?

  28. I was but but screwed up, thought Clinton had it so added longs, bet to big for my account. I need her to win like now or I’m shot

      1. Well will be what it will be, I bet what I can afford to loose so not stressed. Will keep going just have to rebuild my account.

        1. For what it’s worth I think you will be ok if you can hang on….
          Keep size smaller because as tmfp says…..”There’s always another trade”…….I like to add……..”if you have any capital”…….

          1. Sized out, still have a few k in account. Will let dow run and try to hit retrace tomorrow.

            I lost a lot but it’s all about the learning, so I see my loss as a lesson cost.

            Glad you chaps did good, win some you loose some 🙂

    1. Hilary has got to be a buy @7 for a flutter. I believe Trump when he says it’s a fix, so £250 pp for the craic.

        1. Bit of respect for experience :0)…… Well put it this way…..I’m wide awake….had the Ftse shorted and closed them at 6680 – 6690…….. Wish I’d held them longer…….long at the moment…good luck buddy….

    1. Hiya, I don’t know about at the opening, but I think that to be long around 550 average has probably limited risk. Also, The Donald hasn’t actually won yet…

      1. I mean if he doesn’t win, we could make more going long than so far going short! Come on Clinton! lol.

        Cheers mate.

        1. It’s all risk/reward and the Brexit action is relevant although different circumstances.
          Buy when no one wants it, sell when everyone does…..

          1. yeah its always tough to do.
            I guess the only thing on my mind is that it hasn’t gone down anywhere near as much as brexit – and arguably the change in market dynamics is larger with the things trump has said..
            Yellen for the sack!

        2. Even if he does win, downside is limited, the world will not stop turning.
          Remember cable @ 1.50 just before the Brexit vote? That was a sell irrespective of the outcome. 17500 on the DOW may be the same over reaction…..

  33. I was under the impression it was super tank time if trump won? I still think hilary for some reason, trump seems really flaky….they don’t call it la la land over there for nowt. (I had a really weird dream last involving hilary).

  34. Not sure which way we will jump, esp. with the continued uncertainty despite it looking like Trump’s won so I’m taking +85 on half.

  35. Well I’m happy with my approach, stopped out on the gold short but more than made up for it on the Dow short. Up in the account and think I’m happy to sit out and watch the result knowing I’m up whatever happens. Can always try to catch the rally on the ftse once it’s over.

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