FTSE 100 Support 6841 6835 6823 6808 6768
FTSE 100 Resistance 6854 6870 6872 6900 6903 6962

Good morning I hope you had a good weekend. The FTSE didn’t really manage to break the 6850 level on Friday but has held up around that area over the weekend so we could well see a push higher today, to the 10 day Bianca resistance level at 6870. The 20 day level is 6900 above that. Fairly quiet on the news front one the weekend though there was a few articles about how Britons are living beyond their means and how remortgage borrowing has increased quite rapidly in the past few months. The interesting thing this time is the borrowing is being used to live on rather than buying big ticket items as it was before. I have a feeling its going to end in tears again!

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

The dollar fell the most since September versus major peers as traders focused on events this week that could derail its rally. Asian stocks climbed as metals surged.

The yen led the rebound versus the greenback along with the euro and emerging-market currencies. Shares from Hong Kong to South Korea rose, as gains in utilities and consumer stocks overshadowed losses in energy producers. Zinc and lead surged and gold climbed along with Treasuries while oil held declines near $46 a barrel.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is pulling back from a decade high before updates on U.S. gross domestic product, personal spending and nonfarm payrolls this week. President-elect Donald Trump’s promise to boost infrastructure spending has propelled bets on a December interest-rate hike to 100 percent. Crude held its losses amid anxiety prospects are fading for an OPEC production freeze agreement at the group’s formal meeting Wednesday after Saudi Arabia withdrew from talks Monday with producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

“With the dollar rally pausing for a breath, we are seeing long dollar positions getting closed out,” said Khoon Goh, head of regional research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Singapore. “With the yen falling the most among the G10 currencies since the U.S. election, it is natural for a larger rebound in that currency.”

Commodities

Zinc rose 4.2 percent, headed for its highest close in nine years in London, as bullish speculative sentiment in China spurred a fresh surge for industrial metals. Lead is set for its strongest settlement since 2011.
Gold for immediate delivery gained 0.8 percent to $1,192.84 an ounce following last week’s 2 percent decline, its third straight weekly retreat.
West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.1 percent to $46.03 a barrel, holding declines after Friday’s 4 percent drop.
As part of the final push to reach an agreement on curbing supply, oil ministers from Algeria and Venezuela headed to Moscow to get OPEC’s biggest rival on board for a deal to reduce production in an effort to support prices.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8 percent, with the the sub-gauge of utilities gaining 1.4 percent.
The Topix added 0.3 percent, erasing an earlier drop of as much as 0.5 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average snapped a seven-day advance, declining 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.5 percent.
The Hang Seng Index rose 0.8 percent while a gauge of mainland companies traded in the city gained 1.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5 percent.
The Kospi index in Seoul reversed earlier losses to trade 0.4 percent higher, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index climbed 0.1 percent, inching toward a fourth day of gains.
S&P 500 Index futures dropped 0.2 percent after the underlying benchmark set a new all-time high Friday as traders returned from the Thanksgiving holiday.

Bonds

Yields on Australian government debt due in a decade lost six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 2.7 percent.
Yields on similar maturity Japanese, New Zealand and Hong Kong bonds fell at least two basis points.
Ten-year Treasuries rose for the first time in three sessions, pushing yields down three basis points to 2.33 percent.
[Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

For today I am expecting a rise up to the 6870 area where we have the 10 day Bianca and the R2 level at 6872. There is also a fib retrace level at 6887 which may well see a reaction if we pop just above the 6870 resistance levels. I have split the difference and gone for a short at the 6877 level. The 10 day channels, both Raff and Bianca, are heading up, so if the bulls were to break this resistance area then 6900, 6962 and 7000 are the next levels of note.

Support wise, we have the 200ema at 6823 on the 30min, 6818 for S1, and then 6808 for the 10 day Bianca channel. The 10 day Raff is slightly lower at 6768, and if we start to fall then it could get quite bearish quite quickly. At the moment the momentum is with the bulls, though its a bit lacklustre.

The ASX200 was quite bearish today, so the FTSE has done well to hold up out of hours, but we may well start to see some more bearishness creep in, hence why I have put a couple of shorts in the trade plan. The bulls haven’t exactly pulled away with much oomph recently so it pays to remain slightly cautious. I am watching 6855, 6870/80 as fairly key resistance levels.