FTSE 100 Support 6817 6815 6799 6792 6788 6766
FTSE 100 Resistance 6836 6840 6846 6863 6887 6967

Good morning. Those 2 FTSE levels of 6834 and 6790 were on the money yesterday which was good – maybe with the US closed for Thanksgiving the FTSE was able to do its own thing and actually respected some levels for once! Overnight the bulls have failed to break through the 6834 level which is where we have the Hull 100 moving average – so they will be keen to push through that today if we are to go higher. Gold has fallen further to dip below 1180. Its all driven by the prospect of rate increases int he US looking ore likely during December.

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

The prospect of a higher interest-rate environment in the U.S. continues to course through markets, sending the dollar toward its steepest three-week climb against the yen since 1995. Treasuries and gold fell.

The greenback climbed to its strongest level since March versus the yen, as the Turkish lira extended losses at a record low. Other emerging-market currencies, including India’s rupee and South Korea’s won, clawed back some ground. Asian stocks were poised for their first weekly gain in five weeks as S&P 500 Index futures increased. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose another four basis points following the Thanksgiving holiday. Gold extended losses at a nine-month low as copper, regarded as a barometer for the global economy, headed for a weekly jump of more than 8 percent.Strong economic data and the prospect of increased spending under President-elect Donald Trump have fueled a surge in bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes, propelling the greenback to its highest level in a decade versus major peers. Traders see an increase in borrowing costs in December as a certainty, while the odds of additional moves by June have risen to more than 60 percent, according to futures data tracked by Bloomberg. That speculation has seen emerging markets among the hardest hit, with a gauge of Southeast Asian equities sliding on Thursday to a March low.

“As long as the data flow continues to be relatively robust and strong, it gives support to the thesis that the dollar will lead in terms of resilience in the economy, in terms of policy leadership,” said Claudio Piron, Bank of America Corp.’s co-head of Asia currency and rates strategy in Singapore. “Looking at our positioning data as well, it still seems to us that we are having flows continuing to build into the dollar.”

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent as of 2:55 p.m. Tokyo time, headed for a weekly gain of 1.1 percent following four weeks of losses
The Topix added 0.3 percent, while the Kospi index in Seoul fluctuated
Real estate and utility shares led Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index up 0.4 percent
S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.1 percent from Wednesday’s close, with equity markets in the U.S. to close Friday at 1 p.m. local time

Currencies

The yen was little changed at 113.35 per dollar after trading as weak as 113.90, leaving it down 2.2 percent in the week, the worst performance among major currencies
The lira slipped 0.3 percent, while Malaysia’s ringgit also dropped
The Indian rupee strengthened after sinking to a record low Thursday
China’s yuan held near an eight-year low in Hong Kong after the central bank further weakened its reference rate for the currency versus the dollar. The yuan rose this week to an August high versus a basket of peers, signaling that its declines against the greenback have been more moderate than those of other currencies

Bonds

Ten-year Treasuries fell, pushing yields to 2.39 percent
The yield on 40-year Japan government bonds fell 4 1/2 basis points to 0.72 percent, reversing an earlier climb after an auction of the debt saw 499.7 billion yen ($4.4 billion) of securities sold at a highest yield of 0.725 percent
“The 40 year bonds were well received in the auction, triggering a bout of bond buying,” said Masahiko Sato, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Tokyo
Yields on Australian sovereign debt due in a decade pared their gain to one basis point after touching the highest level since January
The U.S. debt market usually closes at 2 p.m. in New York the day after Thanksgiving

Commodities

Gold for immediate delivery dropped 0.3 percent to $1,178.65 an ounce, falling for a fourth day
Copper added 0.2 percent in London and has surged 8.3 percent this week. The industrial metal has soared 20 percent this month
West Texas Intermediate crude oil slipped 0.6 percent to $47.65 a barrel [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

Its a Friday after a US holiday so might be a little bit weird as things settle down again. We have initial resistance at 6840 with R1 and also just above the Hull moving average (and yesterdays high). Support is at 6815 where we have the pivot, the 200ema on 30min, and a green coral on 30min also. This area has held as support overnight. A dip below this might well see the 10 day Bianca channel bottom at 6799, which could well be a place to try a long from in case we are on a move up towards 7000. The rise yesterday from the support at 6790 was pretty slow, but it did rise so there is still some buying momentum.

The markets are a bit jittery still regarding a possible US rate rise in December, though the 10 day trends are heading up on the S&P and the FTSE. The usual Friday caveat applies today – expect it to be a bit strange – but I am still feeling a bullish bias for the moment. If 6799 breaks that will probably change and we are looking at 6750, 6650 and possibly lower. So short a break of 6792 which is where we have S1 for today.