Trading help | Support 6769, 6736 Resistance 6819, 6863, 6922

FTSE 100 Prediction for trading help
FTSE 100 Prediction for trading help

Good morning. I am just doing a really short post today, so just going to do a quick bit of FTSE analysis. Maybe a good thing as this Greece situation is like groundhog day at the moment with deal on then off then on again…. Its hard to keep up with who’s declining to accept each time – at least they can agree to disagree!

For today we have the pivot at 6819 and I expect some resistance there, as we also have the top of the 30min channel there. Support from the bottom of the channel is at 6769ish (depending on what time it hits), but a lot is once going to depend on the Greece negotiations. Below 6769 we have the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6736 which would be worth a long if seen, while above the pivot 6863 and 6922 are the Bianca channel tops.

 

128 Comments

  2. Longs feel too risky. If we get any rallies I’m looking to sell them. Still mindful of last Friday’s gap down in the 6700s. Feels like we could go even lower – 6670s by late afternoon/evening?

  3. Taken a short here at 40. Stop set just past the resistance at 53
    Looking for below 25

    1. I’ve also just taken a long out on the DOW (out of hours) 17900 with a target of 17985 (just prior to resistance levels)
      DOW has moved 8 pips in my favour, FTSE is currently just bumping around in the 40s…so might end up closing that one soon

      1. Nope, through it went
        Resistance broken.
        Had closed out half before, rest went on 53.
        All indices moving up, my DOW is looking good at 17930 at present. Moving stop to break even

  5. Short at 6775 looking for 6753 initially – may set to b/e then and see if we get a ride down this afternoon

      1. I’m setting quite a wide stop – 6805. Can’t rule out a pop into the 80s or 90s – I’m guessing there should be a sell off into the close – but I could be wrong. Bounce was a bit stronger than I expected.

        1. I’ve got in this hopeful ride down in last hour with short on FTSE at 6782
          Lets see the 30s from this morning please

  6. Hello chaps, had to go out. So nearly left a long order at 30 🙁
    So what are we all thinking at 6780 for the next 2 1/2 hours?
    Looks like a sell to me, but let’s have a cup of tea before doing anything too hasty.

    1. Quite impressive rally since 10 am, three 20 point increments 30-50, 50-70 and now 70-90 with a bit of consolidation in between them.
      Also a 45 point rally on the hourly rsi with no pull backs, so getting a bit overcooked from here up.
      If it reaches 6800-10 worth a short into the close methinks, stop around 20.

      I just took a little rsi short at 94, keeping it with a b/e stop hoping I’ve hit the high, will keep doing that.

  7. do you guys think ftse will drop again or it will “recover” to the last few days.

    1. All depends on whether there is a deal. Deal – then we’re probably on our way to 6900s. No deal – then we’re looking at 6600s. Take your pick. (I think we will see the 6900s again some time in July/Aug – maybe even 7000s before more down in the autumn – but it’s only my guess.)

      1. ZZ – I agree.
        In the back of my mind though is that every time I go for a “break” – which is normally end of July – 1st couple of weeks of August there’s always a draw down of some sort. Seems to happen everytime !!
        So…. I was thinking higher towards the end of July (deal done) – then drawdown – and gradual rebuild to the Autumn and beyond.

    1. I find the bounces always bounces from 11 380-400 or drops from around 11560-80 despite the massive swings within the range, the dow is less predictable and the ftse today the same

  9. besides Greece how positive are the markets otherwise, it would suggest to me a sell if we’re just waiting for another yes/no in the weekend. Wouldn’t all the institutionals just ignore the mini storm.

      1. F**k the Greeks, Milka, just trade the numbers 🙂
        Us minnows are in no position to react to news, we can’t quantify it in terms of market influence and the big trades will have been done before we even hear it.

        1. I’m tempted to add to my short on any bounce, can smell blood in the last half hour.
          BUT. beware the Rescue Rally Team…..

          3. Don’t know about short. At first I though it would be so I was betting short but now… EMA are strongly in buy, cannot imagine something will change in half hour. Germany and Dow are long now. It may not last but it’s pushing upwards.

    1. Don’t care – it’ll be a hell of a gap to fill either way. Just gotta be patient.

        1. Yeah – I just don’t try to fill the ones on the Tube – I’ll stick to the FTSE! They do work. (6753 was a big target for the sell off.) Only trouble now is we’ve got gaps above and below – which to go for first? I’ll let the market decide.

    2. Thanks, I also shorted (dax though) when you mentioned. Noticed it was brewing. 🙂

    1. Inspired x2! My best optimised trading system so far (15 mins. timeframe) went long 6739/19:15. But it’s oblivious to Greek invitations to disaster, and is just a mechanical device. Last Wednesday/Thursday saw the apex of this little cycle, so some more downswing would not surprise — the system will change its tune in good time if necessary. (It doesn’t like gaps though. :D)

  16. Probably my worst timed trade ever! Referendum creates less certainty than ever so I’m expecting a gap down tomorrow night

  17. Looks like Sunday morning 8 am for me, despite IG’s 5 point spread could be a bit of fun.

    1. Here we are then, the Greek parliament has endorsed the referendum idea and IG are about to open, Sunday FTSE, currently indicated 53-63 and only a 30 point guaranteed stop!
      I’ve just put sell orders in at 6730, 6700.

      LOL indicated now 6630-40

      Buy order in at 6100, 50 point stop

      Anyone else playing?

        1. 6628/38 now, margin 5x usual, got to be a sell, only a £5.
          This is not trading just gambling, I haven’t even got a chart up lol

          1. 6528/38 now 🙂

            Just a thought, was expecting some margin selling but on IG the standard FTSE contract is still indicated friday close levels 6750 so no losses showing yet for longs and no margin calls.

  18. These Sunday contracts convert into a std DFB @ 22.40 tonight, at the same time as existing open FTSE contracts are revalued to market.
    So, it would make sense to have a look at 22.30 ish to see what the prices are, relevant to what one expects Monday to do first thing i.e. 6 am.
    I’m taking £840 tvm before church 🙂
    This referendum red herring confirms, for me, that Tsipras is prepared to go down in glorious flames rather than compromise his ego by doing what he’s told.
    I can see a liquidation spike down to 6100 Monday morning.

    Back for more fun tonight if anybody’s up for it.

    🙂

    1. You could be right tmfp – I think there could be a bounce before a possible final flush to 5800s. I’ve posted charts in a separate link (once Nick’s moderated them.) Nice gap above (!) (though I will probably wait to see if we get to the sweet spot of 5800s before buying.

      1. Morning ZZ, anyone longing above 6200 has got to be looking at a 300/400 stop. Who is going to do that?
        Maybe it’s a huge bear trap, but I’m with you, we could see a 5 in front, very briefly.

  19. I guess the question now will be where’s the bottom? Looks like we could be in for a wild ride next week. It’s at times like this that I turn to fib levels for a possible clue. “If” and it’s a big “If” … the markets panic like 2011 then can’t rule out a trip to the low 5800s (yes that’s not a misprint.) Hi-Lo in 2011 was 6142 – 4719 (and the fib chart wasn’t exact but not a bad indicator). Hi in 2015 is 7128 and the fib chart brings a low of 5810 (give or take a 100). Charts are here:
    http://s172.photobucket.com/user/zigzagger2/media/2011_zpsfdfywmbk.png.html

    http://s172.photobucket.com/user/zigzagger2/media/28%20June%202015_zpszg9psg8m.png.html

    Of course it will turn out nothing like this (but got to have something to go on.) Also mindful there are lots of supports on the way down in 6300s and 6100s and the mighty 6000 – but it’s fun to guess.

  20. Morning tmpf – fast moving events ! FTSE Off 2.95% from Friday close – DAX off 4.7% from Fridays Close using Sunday Index quotes –

    2. Hiya Hugh
      Yeah, we’re not in logic territory here, low liquidity, wide spreads and a Black Cygnet are a combination to be wary of.
      No RSI for me today, just seat of pants.
      Good Luck.

      1. LOL – “No RSI “…A much needed fillip for Gromit’s FTSE-O-Matic as he’s been wearing the wrong trousers much of the week.

  21. tmfp – Have you still got those Short orders placed at 6730 & 6700 ? I would have thought those will be actioned at market open, if they’re not cancelled. Going to be busy for IG Monday !

  22. I can’t see sub 6000 here. Seriously regretting that last minute long entry on ftse Friday night after saying to keep out! Jealous of you guys with no positions for tomorrow morning. Great entries. The Americans will rescue me. You have to remember that IG will pop it down aggressively as they usually do on Sunday opening to cause fear in longs like me who then look at hedging by going short. They sting you both ways then.

    1. If it helps, I stupidly sold out of the short I had been on for days, on the DOW. I had a feeling it was going to just gap up and wipe me out… But as things stand, more likely to gap down and I’d have been in profit! Argh!

  23. Just to brighten the mood
    “The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises, the Bank of International Settlements has warned.”

    1. and a 14 POINT SPREAD LOL.
      Just read the small print, you’re only allowed to deal Sunday FTSE if you’re a dentist or a vet.
      No offence, any dentist/vets out there 🙂

  25. Dead @ 6558/72.
    If this is where it stays for the next 4 hours, I’m thinking short with 100 point stop…
    what about you guys?

  26. tmfp, i’m confused are u trading now, I can’t see anything open of ig npw just Fridays close price. are these orders for when everything opens late tonight? If not where are you getting todays ftse quotes? thanks

    1. “Sunday Indices” under the finder. 6504/18 atm. Nope 24/38 now…..
      Handle with caution 🙂

  27. 6511 now. I think a long is in order. Prices spiked down before rise to 6650 plus by 11pm

    1. 100 point lottery basically, isn’t it?
      Don’t you see margin selling at 22.45 when it re-opens ~200 down?
      That’s when I could see 6100.

  28. Market is being played with by a very small number. It just jumped 20 points in one move

    1. Lol, scroll up Argyle, I made 100 points in about 5 minutes this morning.
      Mental, but fun.

    1. Getting ignored for working on Sunday 🙁 , but this is special. The next 48 hours could be remembered for a long time.

  32. Tondo am I being stupid but even though there wi be a number of margin calls this evening and people are closing this doesn’t mean it will fall. If the trading market was open yes but these are simply the futures.

  33. Not confident it will fall like you think tmfp. I think it will rise from here and expect 6650 by 11

    1. Nope, see above – took a £2k loss on Friday night just in case. Never mind though, I was -£8k at one point, so it’s all good.

  36. You may well be right chaps, we’ll soon see 🙂
    No x2, you’re not being stupid, but I think there will be more liquidation selling at 0600, 0800 and 1430.
    Crazy day coming up 🙂

      1. Goodness knows Argyle.
        I will be astonished (and poorer) if it’s over 6700.
        Just check my logic with me:
        1) Confidence that a Greek deal will be done is pretty low, a Grexit is more likely now than ever.
        2) There will be big margin calls on a -200 opening. 70%+ spec longs recently on FTSE?
        3) A ~6500 official opening and close will break the monthly uptrend line from March 2009.
        4) It’s not just about Greece. If this kicks off on the downside, people will start querying everything, China, QE, Fed, the lot. I’ve seen limit downs for days on end before and I’m sure you know how sentiment can change so quickly too.
        5) 10% corrections used to be considered healthy. These days they’re the end of the world.

        I honestly think there’s a chance of 48 hours of meltdown.
        The only aggressive buyers I can see would be ECB sponsored rescue attempts.
        The FTSE dropped 200 points on the Swiss Franc revaluation in Jan due to margin calls. What’s a -1000 DAX going to do?
        6100 is perfectly feasible in minutes imo, at any point until Tuesday.
        Expect 100+ point rallies inspired by tweets about “breakthroughs” as well.
        Can’t wait.

        1. While anything is possible, I personally think 6100 tomorrow is probably a stretch too far (unless the market decides to behave like 2011). There’s potential channel support around 6430-50s. It could equal the size of the drop from 7070-6625 which from the recent 6874 hi would give a lo of approx 6430. Bounce from there before a drop to 6290-95 (January’s low). After that – need to see. At a 10% correction (6414) the FTSE is likely to attract btfd-ers

          1. In 2011 the market dropped ~50% from the 2009 low to 2011 high. If we drop ~50% from the 2011 low to the 2015 high then that takes us to ~ 5920. In 2011 it took about 4 days to reach the low once the waterfall had started. This is why I think 6100 might be too far to go tomorrow.

  37. so whats everyones plans tonight one the dfb opens and then when markets open tomorrow?

  38. Si we have completely swapped positions! After bleating all Friday to not open a position before the weekend I’m 30 mins away from a min £10k down. If we go another 100 I’ll be having issues…

    1. Feel for you mate, there it nothing worse than waiting for that 11:00.00 to tick around and see the bar tip in your direction and then fly the other way. I think it’s at least worth having a limit set in case it blips in both directions quickly.

  39. Milka, My plan is stay out and watch. Too much of a novice to play this time, maybe when the next volitile event occurs I might play it. Take my hat off to you all for trading these crazy times. i do however have a long on Ocado at moment and hope that don’t get stopped out. Will try and exit Asap at 8, or do you reckon individual stocks won’t fall so hard?

    1. Oh feck, just went to go short and missed it by 1 min. Didn’t realise the Sunday ones locked at 10.40. Oh well – sidelines for me!

  41. Just averaged down out put on a stop only 50 points away but now £100pp. When it didn’t open bang on 11 I looked and the Sunday index was 300 points down, and 10,8something on the Dax. Started panicking that it wasn’t going to open to get out!

  44. My sell at 6550 triggered but I’m now uneasy about a further drop in the next few hours

      1. think you’re right, spread betters always overshoot when markets are closed don’t they

        1. I can see 6620 by the open. Not confident that this will fall again tonight. Big gaps above to fill.

      2. Could be right. Curious that Sunday night futures stopped at 6525 which is also a support line (even though the daytime futures had sliced through it this morning.)

  46. Well, I’m off to bed with my 51 short hanging on by its teeth 🙂
    See you in 6 hours!

    And gone 🙁

  47. It is brutal. 300 points down on dow and dax. I wish I was short. But I wasn’t in any position. Don’t trust you can make money risking like this.
    As soon as I heard the news I knew it will open like this so was curios to see first thing.

  48. And exactly the same price as 7 hours ago. 🙂
    I’m wrong about heavy margin selling so far, let’s see what happens at 8.
    The longs are there (72% on IG) and they will be searched for at some point today I think.

    1. happened yesterday … markets just treading water. If 6500s hold next move will probably be back towards 6700s

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