Good morning. I hope you had a good weekend. Well this is some what of a bearish start to wake up to. Greece causing all sorts of issues again with their banks and stock exchange closed today and European Central Bank’s Governing Council agreed on Sunday to freeze the level of emergency liquidity assistance for Greek banks. There will be a lot of smarting bulls today who had taken bets last week on a resolution over the last week, while I bet the EU powers that be are cursing Greece. The Greeks are holding them over a barrel and it will be interesting to see what happens this week. The UK should take a leaf out of the Greek negotiating book about staying in the EU as well…..
This rather massive gap down to open this week from Friday’s closing price somewhat invalidates a lot of technical support and resistance levels, for example the daily channels, which isn’t going to make today very easy. As another fly int he bulls ointment, China is struggling a bit and a rate cut over the weekend has failed to stop the rout. China slows down, the world slows down.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks tumbled as investors sought shelter in haven assets while they weighed a possible Greek exit from the euro zone. Shares in Shanghai sank even after the central bank cut interest rates.
Japan’s Topix index dropped 1.7 percent as the yen jumped 0.8 percent against the dollar and 2.1 percent versus the euro. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.6 percent to 145.43 as of 11:37 a.m. in Hong Kong, as more than 20 shares fell for each that rose. The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 3.8 percent after earlier rising 2.5 percent.
“Markets clearly were not ready” for this, said Evan Lucas, market strategist at IG Ltd. “It will be a sea of red all day today. Risk mitigation will be everything.”
Greece will shut lenders and impose capital controls on Monday after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ decision to call a July 5 referendum on the proposed bailout package spurred savers to start withdrawing money at the weekend. The European Central Bank froze the level of emergency aid available to Greek lenders Sunday. Mainland Chinese investors focused on local stimulus efforts, with policy makers reducing the benchmark lending rate for the fourth time since November after the steepest two-week stock selloff since 1996.
“Chinese policy makers must be quite aware that cutting in response to short-term moves in markets is a dangerous game, but I do think they’ve eased because of underlying fundamental concerns,” Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, told Bloomberg TV. “We’ve already seen the earlier rate cuts not really gaining the traction we wanted and the economic data hasn’t really improved all that much.”
Broad Decline
Losses across Asia were broad-based on Monday, with all 10 industry groups on the regional measure retreating. Financial and technology shares led declines. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Toyota Motor Corp. were the biggest drags on gauge.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 2 percent. Slater & Gordon Ltd. tumbled 26 percent, the most on record, after the world’s first publicly-listed law firm said it identified a historical error in its U.K. reporting.
The Hang Seng Index slid 2.3 percent, on course for the biggest loss since December. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index fell 0.9 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 1.4 percent, while Singapore’s Straits Times Index lost 1.3 percent.
Greece will probably have to exit the euro zone, according to Mohamed El-Erian, the former chief executive at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“There’s an 85 percent probability that Greece will be forced to leave the euro zone” in the next few weeks, El-Erian said in an interview from New York. “What we are seeing here is what economists call the sudden stop, when the payment system stops. The logic of a sudden stop is a massive economic contraction, social unrest and it’s going to make continued membership of the euro zone very difficult for Greece.”
E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 1.3 percent. [Ref]
FTSE Outlook
Will be a brave bull that jumps in front of the Greek steam roller today, still, fortune favour the brave! With Greece on lockdown really with the banks and stock exchange closed the pressure is on to sort a resolution and see just how much the Euro-area finance ministers will do after saying on Saturday they’d do whatever is necessary to ensure the financial stability of the currency region. The Dax dipped below 11000 earlier, but has bounced back a little – the pressure will be on to keep that above 11k. Hard one to call today but obviously we have the gap left at 6757 from Friday, and with the daily pivot 6762 and dead cat bounce today that might possibly reach this area is worth a short. There will be some brave bulls going in today I imagine who are betting on a speed response to the situation before it goes to complete meltdown, buoyed by the EU comments on Saturday. Most technical levels are invalid after such a drop, however the fib lines at 6562, 6537, 6521 and 6495 will provide some initial support, with the 6562 one sort of holding so far.
Its going to be a gamble day today really but I have gone for an initial rise from this area that we have dropped to, firstly up to 6620 area but maybe as high as 6690. Bit of a dead cat bounce if you will. A day for the brave really!
Wow, what a weekend! Glad I didn’t hold any positions over the weekend, it just wasn’t worth the risk. The gap on the Dax was over 500 points! IG state 58% of their client’s are long as of midday Sunday, at £2 per point, a lot of traders will be showing a minimum £1K loss this morning.
Well, I’ve nailed my colours to the mast, put my money where my mouth is and mixed all the other metaphors you can think of, on the short side.
Currently short av 6599, adding at 6650, 6680 and 6710 with a stop at 6740.
My target is a quick meltdown this week to around 6200, but will start covering from 6300 should it happen.
If it goes t*ts up, I will lose 3 month’s hard earned scalping profits, ~600 hours graft, but sometimes you have to give it a go…
tmpf – I wonder if you’re over thinking the situation.
I’ve liked your trading style as it is spontaneous and based on short chart patterns and less what may happen tomorrow or the day after.
Quite possibly mate 🙂
I’m still day trading and scalping as usual, but this was something that I thought I’d have a punt on, it’s in a separate account with a budget and targets. (That should read 2 months profits risked ^)
It’s based on what I think is sound technical analysis with a fundamental/news situation in the background that has the power to make it happen.
How’s Grommit, got a bit of indigestion?
Shorts are finance free – on Spreadco.com
Never heard of them, I don’t think this week is a time to try out questionable platforms…
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmhansrd/cm141215/petntext/141215p0001.htm#14121550000028
Thanks for sending the link…
Morning everyone,
Been long and then came out after a few points thinking that things may change at the drop of a hat. To be honest, seems to me that know one seems to know what’s “going on”. I heard this morning (CNBC) that the IMF are still hoping that they will receive their payment tomorrow as scheduled. Confused **$%^%$!
6658 was a candle top on Sunday trading.
recovering massively, “its a buying opportunity for our clients” according tio cmc markets
Short squeeze is on … mind the gap at 6731 (Friday’s low). May not reach today, but those green hourly candles are looking strong. Something tells me that the market is going to tease longs and shorts by not reaching anticipated levels.
Negative bias on all 1 min – 3 min on all my charts now (Will revise if 6649 – 6657 breached)
pullback before a move higher? Needs a breather for the next leg up. Could be at 6700 by 12 noon if it wants to squeeze higher.
looks lie a drop below 6600 is unlikely now, unless there’s further “bad news.”
It did make sense that with everything opening so much lower a rise would be the order of the day
Got a little rsi short at 52, looking for a test of 38, if it breaks may see 25 a bit quick.
Took 16 shorting a bounce
Short at 44 13 either way
stop to 50
stop to 38
took 13
zigzagger, which gaps do u see being filled!
I’ve got gaps at 6609, 6649 (on MT4 chart only) plus the 6731 (daily gap fill). Take your pick! I’m long for 6649, but can’t rule out drop to 6609 first. Suspect this pull back might be a bull flag.
I’m starting to wonder if we get the Monday pattern which can sometimes be a burst high for an hour or so, drop back to the US open before another burst higher. Probably just imagining it though.
what exactly is an mt4 chart. in my limited/ignorant knowledge I know it as a type forex platform
Metatrader 4. It sometimes confirms gaps on IG/Intertrader and also has its own gaps that can be markers for the price to go towards. As with all gaps need to distinguish the breakaway gaps from the ones that are more likely to fill. http://www.fxcm.com/platforms/metatrader-4/
http://www.fxcm.com/platforms/metatrader-4/
Metatrader 4 (tried to paste a link, but Nick’s filter police didn’t like it!)
Since it took a week to get to my target last week of 6710, I suspect the market will p*ss about this week to get to 6731. Since we’ve been having alternate gap up and gap down last Monday and today I guess it’s time for a gap up next Monday!
am now waiting for US open before going for 6649. Looks like we might hit 6609 first
I went long at 6609 and then reversed at 6642. I’m looking to go back long again later as well.
Small stakes today though.
Nice one dc, small and nimble, order of the day 🙂
6609 hit as well now.
50 hit – managed to get some of the ride up. Neutral now.
DAX is looking like Billy No Mates
Just closed out my long for a £3k loss which is bad but not as bad as £14,500 down last night! Stupid gamble Friday night. I wouldn’t have had the bottle to long last night anyway of I wasn’t in it especially when I was reading tmfp taking about 6000 I was crapping it! GLA and hope you all survived last night.
Sorry about that mate, I did get a little rabid, but just calling it like I see it.
GL.
Hi all, ive been keeping an eye on Nicks site since i started trading 20 months ago. I have just registered to speak to tmfp, i felt it was important. I have just blown over 5 months trading with that 200 pt drop at open last night.it was my own fault i was overexposed. it cost me alot of money.I now have to claw it back and its a slow process,my respect for risk now is paramount.This is the third time ive blown my account.I have got it back into profit twice and i will do it again but think what you already have not what you could get. I dont want you to blow your account.all the best tmfp and good luck to everyone.
Appreciate the concern my friend, read my post up there ^^ about the way I am approaching things.
I make regular good money with my simple system, but these are important days and I just want a piece of the action.
Way back when, I lost £45k in a week, when it could buy you a couple of houses…
Think TMFP has the right idea. Using a portion of your profits (“Markets Money”) to increase your leverage is a recognised way of trying to ramp returns.
Keep a base amount on which you prctice low risk trading.(1% or less per trade).
Any profits you make, trade them at a much higher risk level(10% say).
EG. You start with £20,000. risking 1% per trade, you risk 200 per trade.
Lets say you decide you will risk 10% of your profits in addition to the 1% on your base account. If you make £1000, risk 10% of that which is £100 plus the £200 you can risk of your base account, making £300 in total.
If you subsequently lose the profits, you go back to the low risk.
I’ve started doing this after a couple of account blowouts and its helping me manage my risk better.
You can find yourself ramping profit quickly while still maintaining a base account.
Finally, when you reach a target profit, you reset your base account to lock in profit and avoid staking silly amounts which you cannot handle psychologically.
Of course, as with all trading, you have to use discipline around stops and follow the staking levels.
I have read your posts tmfp i believe you are a valuable contributer to this site. Yes i lost about 20k last night,i had to protect my account so im chilled about it.It was panic selling, i can take heat on positions believe me,but the volatility was off the chart.presently long dax and dow but short ftse,and i realise you have a seperate account for your short position and i do think we are in for a big drop but i dont think 6200 just yet.But i dont have your experience so who knows.
Thanks dietcoke that makes sense,psychologically im strong but i need to fine tune my risk management.
My 6200 goal predicates a general equity panic sell off, so I don’t fancy any of the major indices atm.
I don’t think it’s a question of ‘where will the money go’ for a safe haven in that case, more a realisation that the Emperor has no Clothes, and people will start questioning real fundamentals.
Anyway, I’ve got a Bitcoin partial hedge against Global Meltdown, doing very nicely tyvm, av long $231, currently +9%.
The emperor has not been wearing any cloths for a long time lol you are dead right
Im pretty sure greece will stay in the eurozone, tptb dont want to breakup the eurozone in my opinion,so my feeling is after the referendum next sunday we might get a relief rally then possible a sell off later in the year. Like Nick says “expect the unexpected”
Not talking my book, but this is looking like it could fall off a cliff…
Usually time for a buy when it looks like that lol.
Getting a bit overheated on the rsi around 55, looking to sell a spike over 60
Lost momentum, still in short term uptrend, short at 58 6 pt stop, maybe add if it breaks 54
6630 tight band, break up or down?
6630 seems to be the bounce
what do you guys think the dow will do?
Ftse is being squeezed by the falling H1 20 SMA.
I fancy it to pop above, test todays high and then drop a bit/lot (edit as to your view). Currently short @42, based on that analysis, I’ll add at @60 and stop all @80.
DAX recovery is good so far.
Hello Senu, been celebrating reaching 6500, have you?
🙂
Yes. 🙂 done , I didn’t make anything big in this fall from 69xx
Arrows all played out, have to see if we get the final one from 6680
Yeah, good call today Nick, 80 and then back to reality would be nice 🙂
Hopefully tmfp. All this and the average Greek can’t even get their cash out
gone thru it
only temporary Senu 😉
you are right mate…
not a surprise, if all indices close in green 🙂
Headline on the radio “stock markets tumble” – you never would have thought everyones made money being long! #BTFD
You’re sounding like Bloomberg lol.
Apart from my err slightly underwater Master Plan, I’ve made 60 points scalping the short side today 🙂
Just taken first long @ 53…..
out for +1, don’t trust it 🙂
6640 next support area i think. break and back to 6600….
Bounce off that, ya think?
A small long at 38.
Lol last time I listen to you, took -8.
The good news is the MP is nearly above water, not quite, sort of breathing through a reed like the action movies.
Might have been a good long tmfp 🙁
Yeah, can see a bit of a closing rally coming up. I don’t even have the MP on screen (don’t like looking at 4 digit red numbers), but it still influences my day trading to a certain extent.
so they just sold the lot last night and bought back at a lower price during the day
Yep
Always willing to learn, last night’s high was 6600, today’s low was 6600….and who are “they”?
Exactly what i was thinking? there was a spike down under 6525 last night ,how can you buy it back cheaper,i must be missing something?
well I saw it as a sell off causing it to drop to 6600 (or 6480 at 7) followed by a slow buy back which is pushing on 6700
Fair enough, but there was hardly any trading above 6600, it was a defensive markdown by IG (hence the crazy big spreads) not a sell off.
All the selling that took place from there on has been underwater all day trust me I know 🙁 ) apart from a minor dip at 6am.
When people say “they” it usually implies the shadowy real market manipulators.
My point was ‘they’ didn’t make a very good job of it, selling below 6600 Sunday and buying it back today, above 6600.
Sorry, red ink makes me a bit sarky 😉
Nice drop from the 6680 area as expected
How far down Nick do you think it may go in the next few days?
S&P might get 2068 later. Might get 6500 on FTSE this week?
tmpf, what shorts did you place today to scalp 60 points?
also, was it all based on rsi?
Yup, with trendline/resistance confirms.
The ones I posted above mate, plus two off that silliness over 80.
This (6610 now) has become quite a regular feature recently, continued weakness in the hour after FTSE closing poorly.
Might be worth a little long punt, but I’m off before she divorces me (woke her up at 5 with the laptop in bed 🙁 ).
Just a thought, it’s not unknown to have military coups in Greece………
TTFN.
Small long taken at 6609 for a potential ride back up to 20-60 area tomorrow. Stop 6590
Taken a small long at 6612 also
A small long on Dax at 102 also placed before that little drop
Just bought back in ftse and S&P. qtr stakes
Dax really got me today. I had to part with my winnings to have a loss of 137 quid in the end. It’s better than a loss of 1600 quid. Well, I got it all wrong, started selling at around 8 am and was stuck with those losses, added too much and it didn’t give me much profits (connection was a bit slowish and it didn’t give me the right price I pressed for, I suspect they did something to my account to prevent me to open/close quickly), managed to raise 200 quid which I ended up giving them back with 137 quid on top. Got me to b/e where I started my balance. So not too bad.
Just wasn’t happy with the way that rally progressed. It seemed there was no ending to it. I usually quite cold minded when I do this type of trading, and it works with the span of around 100-150 points, but 300 points range nearly killed me today. From 11180 upward I thought I was done really here. But didn’t give up. Couple of times went on margin call – red, but quickly managed to escape. Reduced stakes at around 15.40 and set TPs cos I needed to work. When I looked at 17.15 it was not too bad and I closed the remaining 137 losing quid, I could have carried on but tomorrow I cannot trade, and who knows where the price will go. The lowest short was too low: 10995 it wouldn’t be in profit yet. Just annoyed that all my profits had to go.
Jack, DAX fell back to your short price.
I really freaked out today with 300 points rise so didn’t trust the price anymore, once it showed me a reasonable relief I closed the rest at 17.15 around 11070. However I did recover to -£111 for today and just above my original money. Should be all right to start again. I am content. 🙂
cheers 🙂
Just added to both ftse and D&P longs.
you still going long with this bear?
Hello folks, havent been here for a while now. Good to see a lot of people are still here
@x2wlt hoping to bounce off ideas, do you see any further downside once markets open tomorrow?
I feel there is more downside to come tomorrow in dax and that should take Dow and Sp500 lower?
Any thoughts anyone?
Hi senu, yes. Didn’t expect the US to sell off like that worse than where they got to last night. Maybe time to bring a stop into play. When it’s back at 2130 we’ll be asking why we didn’t buy more! Still reeling from being cut on my S&P short on Thursday (only went 2 points higher that day?!) at 2112 £1,000pp.
GL mate 🙂
That’s some Doji candle today.
IF we get a strong bull day tomorrow then this could be the mother of all bear traps.
On the other hand, a break of the lows i.e. 6500 would be a very bearish combination of gap/doji/continuation of trend.
Tonight’s Asia could provide the momentum and Greece confirm it tomorrow for the rest of the week.
Also, it’s a long weekend in the US coming up, early NF’s and a return to work the day after the Greek referendum would make them pretty risk averse, as today showed.
Interesting times.
You could well be right tmfp. 70% chance the S&P closes in green tomorrow, but lower lows are also very likely, now that 2070 has broken. Suggests ftse could rebound (a bit) today but also make lower lows afterwards. My ideal for today is a rebound to 6660 before more down … but the market rarely listens to my ideal! Those long doji’s also usually partially retrace which is why I think we could see 6640-60
Can’t believe that gold hardly rallied today. I know it’s linked more with the dollar but that safe haven bounce I expected never happened.
Anyone heard about the Puerto Rico debt worries? Looks like we’re looking at a domino effect soon with all the QE pumped into the markets by the central banks, the City boys might want to start cashing in their profits. But not so soon I suppose