Good morning. Hope you had a good weekend. Looks like the Greek banks are finally going to open today after being closed for 3 weeks, though eyes have moved to China now – Gold has started off the week by dropping 4% after China revealed they held less Gold than expected and the prospect of US interest rate rises. Carney mentioned interest rate rises in the UK last week but it probably just doing another one of the rhetorics to see how the market reacts and get people semi prepared.I very much doubt rates will rise here before they do in the US, as they are doing better than the UK at the moment. I’d wait for the rhetoric to increase in frequency before even thinking about a rate rise.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks outside Japan dropped as materials and information technology shares led declines after a regional benchmark index posted the biggest weekly advance since April.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index fell 0.1 percent to 463.99 as of 8:03 a.m. in Hong Kong. The measure last week posted its biggest weekly advance since April as Chinese shares rallied amid speculation banks will support the market and as the increased likelihood of an end to Greece’s debt crisis bolstered global equities.
“Investors have to be more discerning on how they play these markets,” Matthew Sherwood, head of investment markets research in Sydney at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $21 billion, said by phone. “Valuations are looking stretched. They need to find markets with compelling value, good earnings upside and continued policy support.”
South Korea’s Kospi index and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index were little changed. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index lost 0.1 percent. Markets in Japan are closed for a holiday, while those in China and Hong Kong have yet to open.
The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 3.5 percent on Friday amid speculation the government is boosting funds to support the world’s second-largest equity market.
China Securities Finance Corp., a state-backed agency that provides margin finance and liquidity to the market, has between 2.5 trillion yuan and 3 trillion yuan ($483 billion) on tap to support stocks, people familiar with the matter said. Funding will be used to offer liquidity support to brokerages and to purchase stocks and mutual funds, the people said.
Selling Ban
The latest measure comes after policy makers banned large shareholders from selling stakes, ordered state-run institutions to buy equities and suspended initial public offerings to halt a rout that cost investors almost $4 trillion.
E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The U.S. equity benchmark index added 0.1 percent on Friday in New York as the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped to a record close.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel held out the prospect of limited debt relief as crisis-ravaged Greece prepares to reopen its banks three weeks after they were shut.
Merkel told German broadcaster ARD that she’s prepared to discuss the matter once Greece successfully completes the first round of a new bailout. While the remarks don’t go beyond pledges already made by euro-region governments, they signal that the topic could be considered by the end of the year. She ruled out any haircut on Greek debt. [Ref]
FTSE Outlook
I am looking at 2 levels today – 6752 for support and 6810 for resistance. Both worth trading off, and will be an interesting open with a weak Asia but the FTSE futures holding their own. The moving averages are actually bullish still, on both the 10 and 30min, with the latter showing support at 6782. If that holds initially then I can see a rise towards the recent highs and the first fib resistance level t 6810. If it breaks then a dip to the 10 day Bianca at 6752 looks likely for first thing. I have plotted the arrows for 6782 to hold initially but be prepared to switch stance on the open if it starts to break 6782. If it gets really bearish today then there is a possible swing long opportunity at 6710ish where we have the bottom of the 10 day Raff and the 25ema on the daily. If this holds then we could be on for a bullish remainder of July. There is also a possible swing long on the S&P at around 2100. Shame we banked the gold short at 1137 though!
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Morning all.
That’s your first arrow then Nick 🙂
Short at 12, only looking for it to test the uptrend at around 04 for the time being.
Looks like thin volume again, the daily screams sell to me, but have a feeling there could be a spike up before any substantial downside.
Out for 8, see if it bounces.
Good chart friday btw Jim.
Well, scrap that uptrend, let’s see if the one at 96 ish holds better.
and short again at 12, since lost that uptrend too, so 6800 will be worth a look maybe.
Am short 6810….
took 20 on that, let’s see what it’s made of 🙂
Nice, took half at the +20 too
Good stuff.
Trying a little long stop 85
Now watching 1 second chart….loads of gaps there ZZ 🙂
out for 4 pennies, let’s see what the DOW does, if anything
Brain faded….forgot about BST 🙁
Glad I sold it though, this latest crash from 96 to 93 would have wiped out an hour’s profits 🙂
Ha-ha! tmfp … yea suggests really light volume – FTSE’s almost behaving like it’s a bank holiday – gaps not to be trusted today. It’s hit the main one I had at 6786. I’m expecting to see 6770 again sometime – maybe this afternoon or tomorrow – who knows.
I’m also speculatively long looking to see if we get dragged higher to retest 6813. Stop at 6784.
definite buy up to 94 🙂
RSI Trio B here 6788
Hi all I’m presently long from 6791.2. Good luck everyone
It’s all very nervy at the moment but I’m expecting a change of sentiment
Well the market is taking a deep breath! Still holding had a 30 pt stop on this trade
Just closed my 6810 short for +30 on the rest.
Well done Nick I had a short earlier from 6808 but only took 3.5 points I didn’t feel comfortable holding it but I was wrong.
Yeah, I have no idea where the next 20 is today.
75 held well, but only to a lower high.
We seem to be at the mercy of the DOW for direction atm and that can’t make its mind up either.
Getting through 6810 is developing into quite an issue though.
My guess is back up to early 90s for the close (pivot for tomorrow) … but that’s only cos I’m still after 94 🙂
For what it’s worth guys I took my inspiration from a show of strength from the Dax earlier
Early 90’s now, I think worth a sell for down pressure in the last half hour
DAX is playing its own Bund/Euro game Anstel, I would be wary of expecting too much correlation.
Whooopee 94 hit (on MT4) da ..da ..da.. da ..da .. da … gapman! 🙂
Thanks tmfp about the Dax info,I’m not as experienced as you guys yet.
OK then, the 4 o’clock sweepstake for ftse closing price, most wrong gives a £10 to charity.
80 for me.
Quite possibly (as there’s a gap at 81.8).
I’m just looking for a golden cross on the 1 min sma and then maybe I can afford some dinner later
Ok tmfp I will say closing at 6802
My charity is the RNLI.
And it’s neck and neck!!!! tmfp
A lot can happen in 1000 seconds 🙂
Hey it’s more fun than trading for money I may have fallen at the final hurdle!
Giddy up
And a late run on the rails from Anstel…..earns the Air Ambulance a tenner 🙂
Looks like there could be a Steward’s enquiry (!)… closing price is now showing 6788 on Google which makes tmfp closer?
Confirmed Anstel wins by a super short head of 0.07 pt, LSE official FTSE close 6791.07.
🙂
Might be a photo finish ! Sorry Nick just a bit of fun !
I just want a rosette please 🙂
Lol.
Just googled which would win a race between a bull and a bear, they can both do about 35 mph apparently.
Wouldn’t want to be the guy with the chequered flag though…..
Catch you tomorrow
🙂
No need to apologise!
Out of my long at 6796.8 only 5.6pts but it’s enough to get myself a new saddle ! The last one was very uncomfortable in the final furlongs of the 4.30
gap at 81.8 now hit – a beautiful marker for this morning.